Last week overall: 9-5
Last week ATS: 6-7-1 (-740/-17%)
Overall picks: 53-37 (.579)
ATS Picks: 43-43-4 (-$310)
Lock picks: 5-1
Upset picks: 7-7
Pittsburgh Steelers 27 Miami Dolphins 16
Spread: Pittsburgh -3
Pick against spread: Pittsburgh 4 units
The Pittsburgh Steelers defense didn’t look amazing last week, they looked human, allowing Colt McCoy to have a fairly solid debut. My theory, this defense played its heart out for 4 games with Big Ben out. Last week, with Big Ben back and a rookie in McCoy coming to town, they took a bit of a break. I expect them to be better this week. Chad Henne has not won at home this season. I don’t think Henne is a better quarterback than Roethlisberger and a certainly don’t think the Dolphins defense, even with the emergence of Cameron Wake, is anywhere near as good as Pittsburgh’s. Pittsburgh’s is just so much better overall as a team. I don’t see how Henne can outthrow Roethlisberger against Pittsburgh’s defense, without the benefit of his much needed running game against Pittsburgh #1 ranked run defense.
Atlanta Falcons 31 Cincinnati Bengals 13
Spread: Atlanta -3.5
Pick against spread: Atlanta 4 units
The Falcons’ weakness as a team is their pass defense. They ranked 27th in the league in YPA allowed. However, Carson Palmer is not the type of quarterback who can take advantage of that. He stinks. He struggled against Tampa Bay, who is playing horrible without Tanard Jackson against the pass. Palmer threw 3 picks in that game and the Falcons defense actually leads the league in interceptions. They should pick him off a few times and set up nice field position for their offense. Cincinnati’s defense is good, but they’ll be missing Antawn Odom for 4 game thanks to a PED suspension. They already struggled to pressure the quarterback before that. Their cornerbacks are amazing, but pass rush is more important than shut down corners for the most part. Also remember Matt Ryan is 14-1 in his career at home and with a 3.5 point spread, all he really needs to do is win. That spread is not very big at all.
Washington Redskins 26 Chicago Bears 16 Upset Pick
Spread: Chicago -3
Pick against spread: Washington 3 units
Jay Cutler has been sacked 15 times in the last 6 quarters he’s played and Mike Martz is refusing to make adjustments, like running more or switching to more 5 step drops. The Redskins have 13 sacks on the season and can create good pressure when they blitz. The Redskins are a good team and the Bears have yet to beat a team that has more than 1 win other than the Packers, who shot themselves in the shot with 18 penalties. I think they are very overrated and should not be getting points here with the way they’ve been playing lately, failing to complete 50% of their passes in 3 straight games. The Redskins are 5-1 against the spread this season and are very underrated. Also keep in mind, they also beat the Packers, who are the Bears’ best victory.
New Orleans Saints 26 Cleveland Browns 20
Spread: -13 New Orleans
Pick against spread: Cleveland 3 units
The Saints have covered once this season, despite being 4-2. I have no idea why they are getting 13 points here, even at home. They play well when they can run, but unlike the Buccaneers, who they ran all over last week in a 25 point win, the Browns are decent against the run, 18th. It’s not amazing but it should be enough to contain Chris Ivory. I just don’t think the Saints should be favored by this many after just one game, when a week ago they were 3-2 and coming off a loss to the Cardinals.
Baltimore Ravens 31 Buffalo Bills 10 Lock Pick
Spread: -13 Baltimore
Pick against spread: Baltimore 1 unit
Big spreads are iffy a lot of the time, but the Bills are really bad so I can feel safe picking the Ravens here, but I almost never put more than 1 unit on a 12+ point spread. Still, I think the Ravens should be able to dominate the lowly Bills here. I don’t even think this needs much explanation.
Carolina Panthers 16 San Francisco 10 Upset pick
Spread: -2 49ers
Pick against spread: Carolina 2 units
The 49ers just won so they could get complacent and start feeling like their problems are fixed, especially with 0-5 Carolina on tap. San Francisco is not a good team. They couldn’t do anything against the Raiders until that last drive. The Panthers defense is better than the Raiders. They actually rank 6th in the league in yards allowed, but no one notices because their offense is so bad. They’re also 12th in points allowed. I expect Alex Smith to struggle slightly more on the road, traveling across 3 time zones against Carolina’s defense, than Matt Moore against a San Francisco pass defense that made Matt Cassel look good a few weeks ago. Matt Moore is starting this week and he has more experience than Clausen so he can deal with the lack of supporting cast better. John Fox is also coaching to pad his resume, as evidence by his switch to Matt Moore, the veteran. I expect him to coach well and lead this team to victory at home, their first of the season. All this being said, I’d have to be insane to put more than 2 units on the Panthers against a fairly even spread.
Philadelphia Eagles 24 Tennessee Titans 21 Upset pick
Spread: -3 Tennessee
Pick against spread: Philadelphia 1 unit
This is a tough one. The Titans have looked great at times this season, but we’ve seen them struggle after a win before this season and it’s tough to tell how good they truely after because of how bad Jacksonville played last week. Philadelphia, meanwhile, is on the road, but has the better quarterback and the better pass defense. However, the Titans amazing pass rush could be in the backfield a lot because of how bad the Eagles line is and that could force the young Kolb to struggle even against Tennessee’s weak secondary. I’m leaning towards Philadelphia to win because I think they’re a better team, but the Titans often play better than they’re expected to. That’s just how Jeff Fisher rolls. I’m taking Philly because they are underdogs and I think they’re the better team, but I’m not putting a lot on this.
Kansas City Chiefs 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 20
Spread: -9.5 Kansas City Chiefs
Pick against spread: Jacksonville 1 unit
Another tough one. Matt Cassel plays well against bad secondaries, but so does David Garrard. The Jaguars secondary is worse, but not by a lot. Kansas City’s also a more talented overall team, but also not a lot. They are favored by a ton, 9.5, and I don’t think they cover that, but I’ve learned by lesson about putting more than 2 units on Jacksonville. They could fairly easily come in and lay a stinker here. But I’m taking the Jaguars to win against the spread. The Chiefs are coming off two heart breaking losses and were not very good to begin with to start the season at 3-0. They could be very flat after two heartbreaking losses with a bad team that just lost by 27 on Monday Night Football at home coming to town.
St. Louis Rams 27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 Upset pick
Spread: -2.5 Tampa Bay
Pick against spread: St. Louis 3 units
I’m not understanding why the Buccaneers are favored here. They are 1-9 against the spread at home under Raheem Morris. Their defense is playing terrible right now and they just lost by 25 at home to a team that just lost to the Cardinals on the road. This defense of Tampa’s is terrible and I think the Rams have the better offense. They can at least run the ball and I think Bradford is the better quarterback right now. The Rams have issues on the road, but they did win one on the road this season and I think they can do it again against a team that’s not playing very well.
Seattle Seahawks 31 Arizona Cardinals 21
Spread: -5.5 Seattle
Pick against spread: Seattle 2 units
Max Hall makes his first road start here and he’s going into Seattle, a very tough place to win. The Seahawks haven’t even been that good since 2009 and they’re 6-4 at home. They’re playing their best football now since 2007, when they went 7-1 at home. With Russell Okung healthy and Marshawn Lynch in there, this team is looking like a legitimate playoff team, like they could possibly make the playoffs even in any other division. Hall’s not beating this team in Seattle.
Denver Broncos 24 Oakland Raiders 20
Spread: -8 Denver
Pick against spread: Oakland 2 units
Kyle Boller is expected to start, but remember JaMarcus Russell and JP Losman combined to beat this team last year 20-19. The Broncos strength is their passing game and that’s the strength of the Raiders defense. The Raiders can’t stop the run, but the Broncos can’t run and don’t even do it that much. The Broncos, meanwhile, can’t stop the run either, but the Raiders run well. The matchups are in favor of Oakland, definitely. Oakland is also an annoying team. They are 4-2 under Tom Cable as road underdogs of 7 or more. They do well when no one expects it. I think they can do it this week, even with Kyle Boller. I also just don’t think the Broncos are good enough to be favored by more than a touchdown, unless they were facing the Bills or someone. I’m not putting a lot of Kyle Boller, but I’m picking him and the Raiders against a team against whome they are 6-2 against the spread in their last 8 meetings. The Raiders did beat the Chargers this season. They play well against big rivals.
New England Patriots 34 San Diego Chargers 21 Upset pick
Spread: -3 San Diego
Pick against spread: New England 3 units
Call me crazy, but I actually think this Chargers team is bad this year. Even if they aren’t, they are expected to be missing their top 2 receivers, which is going to help the Patriots’ defense. The Patriots defense isn’t good, but they are opportunistic. They capitalize on mistakes, which the Chargers have been making a lot of lately. The Patriots always come to play against the Chargers and they always seem to beat them. Even on the road, I expect them to do the same this week. There’s no reason why they should be field goal underdogs here.
Minnesota Vikings 28 Green Bay Packers 21 Upset Pick
Spread: -2.5 Green Bay
Pick against spread: Minnesota 2 units
This just seems like the type of game where Brett Favre goes off and shows the world why he’s Brett Favre. He’s playing in Lambeau, against his old team. He’s got the sexual assualt allegations. He’s got the bad elbow. This is a must win game. Those circumstances make most quarterbacks crumble. It makes Favre better. Favre was 41 for 59 for 515 yards and 7 touchdowns to no sacks last season against the Packers. The Packers are banged up now and I expect Favre to play extremely well in a victory.
New York Giants 24 Dallas Cowboys 20 Upset pick
Spread: -3 Dallas
Pick against spread: New York 2 units
I’m going to keep betting against the Cowboys until they start playing to their potential. The fact that they’re favorites here just makes it an even better play. The Cowboys could win. We’ve seen the Giants play bad at times this season, but I’m not going to take the Cowboys until they give me reason to. They haven’t done that yet.
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