Last week overall: 10-4

Last week ATS: 9-5 (+1410/+39%)

Overall picks: 65-39 (.625)

ATS Picks: 52-48-4 (+$1100)

Lock picks: 6-1

Upset picks: 10-10

Miami Dolphins 28 Cincinnati Bengals 16 Upset Pick

Spread: -1 Cincinnati

Pick against spread: Miami 4 units

The Miami Dolphins are the type of team that beats the teams they’re supposed to (combined record of the teams they’ve defeated, 6-13) and not the teams they’re not supposed to (combined record of the team they’ve lost to, 15-3). The 2-4 Bengals represent a team they are supposed to beat, even though Cincinnati is for some reason favored. The Bengals are vastly overrated by vegas as Carson Palmer’s stats have been bloated by short throws against prevent defenses in garbage time as well as very good receivers in the open field. He’s also faced very weak pass defenses. The Dolphins are also a run first team. They don’t beat teams that can stop their run, or have a good enough quarterback to make running the ball an impracticality. The Bengals are neither of those things and the Dolphins should win with ease.

Dallas Cowboys 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 14

Spread: -6.5 Dallas

Pick against spread: Dallas 2 units

Jon Kitna will be starting for the Cowboys here. However, the Jaguars can’t stop anyone through the air. Let’s look at some stats by opposing quarterbacks against the Jaguars. Ryan Fitzpatrick 20-30, 220 yards, 3 scores. Kerry Collins (coming in for an injured Vince Young, having not worked with the first team all season) 11-16, 110 yards, 1 score. Matt Cassel 13 for 18, 195 yards, 2 scores. Kitna’s at least on that level, so he should be a decent game after a week working with the first team. I don’t expect the Jaguars to be able to match, because the Cowboys defense could have their best game of the season this week. Teams who lose an established quarterback to injury (meaning a quarterback who has started every game of the season to this point) are 6-2 against the spread in the first game with their backup at starter. It makes sense, the spread is easier to cover, and the rest of the team is going to be playing 110% in the quarterbacks absence. Incidentally, the two backup QBs who lost against the spread, Seneca Wallace and Todd Bouman. Kitna is better than both of those guys and the Cowboys supporting cast is certainly better than the Browns’ or the Jaguars’. All this being said, I changed by pick from 3 units to 2 because I didn’t like the idea of laying 300 dollars on Kitna to cover a spread of 6.5 points against a team who has a better record (somehow) than his. There’s also a chance the Cowboys come out completely flat following that loss to New York and the loss of their starting quarterback, as they are effectively eliminated from the playoffs after high hopes to open the season.

Washington Redskins 34 Detroit Lions 27 Upset Pick

Spread: -2.5 Lions

Pick against spread: Washington 3 units

Is Matt Stafford overrated or what? This is Stafford’s first start back and he’s already favored over a 4-3 team by a whole field goal. In Stafford’s career, he’s 212 for 392 for 2350 yards, 13 touchdowns, and 20 picks. He has potential, but until I see him be an elite quarterback, I’m not taking him as a favorite over a good team, especially with how bad his defense is. 

Kansas City Chiefs 34 Buffalo Bills 27

Spread: -7.5 Chiefs

Pick against spread: Bills 1 unit

We all saw the Chiefs blowout a bad team last week. The Chiefs scored 42 points, on the strength of their run game, to beat the Jaguars. Most think they’ll do the same this week. I don’t. Unlike the Jaguars with Todd Bouman last week, the Bills have a quarterback who can match the Chiefs point production. Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones will run all over the Bills week run defense, but Fitzpatrick can lead drives through the air against the Chiefs weak pass defense, something Bouman couldn’t. I’m not putting a lot on it because it’s the Bills, but I’m taking the Bills to cover in a high scoring affair.

St. Louis Rams 26 Carolina Panthers 12

Spread: -3 Rams

Pick against spread: St. Louis 3 units

So the Panthers score 23 against the 49ers and all of a sudden they’re a good team again? Let’s remember the 49ers suck. Matt Moore will have a much harder time scoring 23 on the Rams this week and with the way the Rams offense plays at home, they might not even cover this tiny spread even if they do score 23. I’m picking the Panthers to struggle offensively and lose by a fairly considerable margin.

Green Bay Packers 23 over New York Jets 20 Upset Pick

Spread: -6 Jets

Pick against spread: Green Bay 3 units

I think the Packers saved their season last week. Beating Favre in a game they could have lost is the perfect way for this team to get back on track, especially with 3 key defensive players back for the Packers this week. I had the Packers beating the Jets early this season when I said the Packers would win it all. I think the Packers are back on track as a title contender and will take this one in a close game. Even if they don’t, I have 6 points to work with because of a fairly large spread.

 

Denver Broncos 31 San Francisco 49ers 13 lock pick, upset pick

Spread: -1 49ers

Pick against spread: Denver 5 units

I don’t think this has ever happened before. My lock pick is an underdog. I know this is a bad week for lock picks, with most of the good teams either playing each other or on a bye. Of my top 11 teams in my Power Rankings, only two of them aren’t playing other top 11 teams or on bye. Those two teams are Tennessee and New England, both of whom have tough matchups with San Diego and Minnesota (2 playoff teams from last year) respectively. I originally had my first 6 unit selection of the year on this one, but then I decided that putting 600 on the 2-5 Broncos might not be the smartest idea. However, I’m still 5 units confident here. Teams covering with their backup quarterback only happens when, the team is good, the backup is decent, the spread isn’t ridiculous. Neither of those 3 are the case this week. The Broncos with their amazing passing game should be able to light up the scoreboard against a 49ers team that gave up 300 yards to Matt Moore last week. I’m not giving Troy Smith any shot to match that. Even though this is technically a home game for San Francisco, it’s in London, so the Broncos are actually closer and if any team has any homefield advantage (very doubtful) it’s the Broncos. 

San Diego Chargers 34 Tennessee Titans 16

Spread: -3.5 San Diego

Pick against spread: San Diego 3 units

It’s last stand time for the Chargers. If they lose this one and Kansas City beats winless Buffalo, they’ll be 3.5 back of the division, having already lost to the team they’re chasing. The Chargers always seem to play their best right when they have their backs up against it. The Chargers played better last week, save for 3 stupid plays. The Chargers dominated the Titans last season, winning by 25. I predicted that because of how much taller the Chargers talented receivers were than the Titans shorter corners. Even without Malcom Floyd and Vincent Jackson, the Chargers still have a height advantage and that’s how Philip Rivers (also 6-5) can attack this weak Tennessee secondary. Also, in the past three years, when you pinpoint the game that the Chargers turned their season around during, they’ve won that game by an average of 31.7 points. The only reason I don’t have 5 units on this one is because I could be wrong about the Chargers turning their season around this week. This could be the year they finally shoot themselves in the foot one too many teams, but I doubt it.

Seattle Seahawks 26 Oakland Raiders 13 Upset Pick 

Spread: -2.5 Oakland

Pick against spread: Seattle 4 units

The Raiders just beat the Broncos by 45 and earlier this season the Broncos beat the Seahawks by 17. Do some math and Oakland wins by 62, right? Yeah not really. This Seahawks team is playing like a legitimate playoff team that could win 10 games this season and looks, much better than they did earlier this season when they lost to Denver. The Raiders, always disappoint after wins in the Tom Cable era, especially at home. In the Tom Cable era, they are 1-10 after wins, 0-4 after wins at home, losing by an average of 22 points. The Raiders are also winless against the spread as favorites under Tom Cable.

New England Patriots 31 Minnesota Vikings 24

Spread: 5.5 New England

Pick against spread: New England 1 unit

This spread is not actually live right now. This spread is from earlier in the week, before we knew that Favre could miss. I personally think there’s no chance he misses, so I’ll make my pick as if he’s playing against a 5.5 point spread. Note, I will change my pick once an official spread is posted, but if the spread is less than 7 and Favre plays, I’m taking Pats, less than 10 and Tarvaris Jackson plays, I’m taking Pats. The Tom Brady has won 23 straight regular season games in Foxboro and even last year, when the Vikings were playing well, they were 4-4 on the road. They’re winless on the road this season. I’m just not putting a lot on it because Favre always plays his best against adversity. 2-4 team, 41 years old, double fractured ankle, elbow tendonitis and ongoing sexual harassment probe might be the most adversity he’s faced in his career at one time. If Tarvaris Jackson plays, the Vikings become a team playing with their backup quarterback, which I mentioned is 6-2 against the spread this season, 6-0 if you’re a good team with a decent backup, which the Vikings and T-Jax are.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 Arizona Cardinals 13 Upset Pick

Spread: -3 Arizona

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 units

Why is Arizona favored by 3? These two teams are very similar, good receivers, can’t run or stop anyone, except the Buccaneers actually have a quarterback and can protect him. The Cardinals have Derek Anderson and give up the 2nd most sacks in the league per game. It may be a road game for the Buccaneers, but they’re 2-0 on the road this season. The Buccaneers beat bad teams. That’s what they do. The Cardinals are a bad team and even if the Bucs don’t somehow win, there’s 3 points to work with because of this spread.

Pittsburgh Steelers 28 New Orleans Saints 21 Upset Pick

Spread: -1 New Orleans

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh 2 units

This is a matchup between the 2008 Super Bowl champs and the 2010. The line is essentially even, so I’m just going to pick a straight up winner. I’m going with the 5-1 team over the 4-3 team that has lost to the Browns and Cardinals and has yet to beat a team with a positive point differential. I’m not saying that with a ton of confidence though, 2 units, as we all know the Saints can explode in big games at home and last week’s loss may have been a fluke and/or a wake up call.

Indianapolis Colts 30 Houston Texans 22

Spread: -5.5 Indianapolis

Pick against spread: Indianapolis Colts 1 unit

I’m picking the Colts to win the first rematch of this NFL season and avenge their week 1 to the Texans for a few reasons. The game is in Indy. The Colts will take the Texans more seriously this week than week 1. The Texans have lost DeMeco Ryans. Arian Foster won’t rush for 231 yards (because that doesn’t happen very often and because the Colts will be prepared for him). Also, the last time Peyton Manning has lost a season series to a division rival, 2002. This is a revenge game after losing to Houston earlier. All that being said, it’s a one unit pick because Houston can be very good and did win this matchup earlier. Plus the spread is pretty big.