Last week overall: 8-5
Last week ATS: 8-5 (+170/+5%)
Overall picks: 73-44 (.624)
ATS Picks: 60-53-4 (+$1270)
Lock picks: 6-2
Upset picks: 13-14
Atlanta Falcons 34 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27
Spread: -9 Atlanta
Pick against spread: Tampa Bay 1 unit
Tampa Bay may have 5 wins, but none of them have come against a team with a winning record. Their combined record of the teams they’ve beaten, 12-25, 5-17 if you don’t count Arizona and St. Louis. The reason for not counting them, those wins were by a combined 4 points, could have gone either way, and plus St. Louis and Arizona have such a weak schedule that their records are thrown off as well. Their two losses were to winning teams, by a combined 50 points. Atlanta is a good team. However, that spread if huge. 9 points between two 5-2 teams. Tampa Bay isn’t some mediocre team. They’re an average at worst team. Josh Freeman and this passing game have the ability to tear apart this Atlanta secondary, they’re just very one-dimensional, lacking even an average defense, and yet without an established runner (Blount is emerging though). I think Tampa can keep this within a touchdown and score a late touchdown in a high scoring affair to win it ATS, but Atlanta’s clearly the better team, and clearly going to win (especially at home where Matt Ryan has lost one career regular season game in 3 years), so I’m not putting too much on Tampa ATS.
Chicago Bears 24 Buffalo Bills 16
Spread: -2.5 Chicago
Pick against spread: Chicago 2 units
I don’t want to bet on either of these two teams. Buffalo is 0-7 and Chicago could be 0-7 if a few things didn’t go their way (they’re 4-3). 3 of their wins have come against teams with 4 combined wins and the other came because of 18 penalties against. Jay Cutler’s on a 3 game losing streak, during which he is 51 for 90 for 1 touchdown and 5 picks and has been sacked 19 times and suffered a concussion. Chicago should be able to tear apart Buffalo’s defense, because they can establish the run on Buffalo’s terrible run defense and because Buffalo can’t bring pressure with the pass rush, however, Mike Martz refuses to run and their line is so bad that Carolina got consistent pressure on them. I’m picking the Bears because they should win (aided by an elite defense), but this could be ugly and Buffalo could win their first game of the season here so I’m not putting a lot on it.
New England Patriots 31 Cleveland Browns 16
Spread: -4.5 New England
Pick against spread: New England 4 units
The 6-1 Patriots are only 5 point favorites over the Browns? What? This spread is ridiculous and could also be available for only a limited time. The Patriots could very well have Randy Moss back by the end of the week, which could make the spread 6-8 points. Even if they don’t, they can destroy Cleveland. Cleveland’s pass defense is nowhere near as good as the three they’ve faced without Moss (Baltimore, San Diego, Minnesota) so they can destroy them with the short gain and won’t even need the deep threat. Cleveland beat New Orleans going into their bye, which could explain to spread, but they couldn’t do that again if they tried. They needed several trick plays and pick sixes to do it. I’m still not sold on Colt McCoy as a good quarterback, as the kind who can keep up with a Tom Brady, against an improving New England defense. Say what you want about their D, it is improving and it is complex and forces turnovers. McCoy should have a few as a rookie this week.
New York Jets 23 Detroit Lions 13
Spread: -4 Jets
Pick against spread: Jets 3 units
Detroit should be able to keep this close based on the way they played last week. However, Matt Stafford has still only has 3 wins in his career, and they were against Cleveland and Washington twice. Cleveland in 2009 and Washington in 2010 were among the worst pass defenses in the league. Even with a strong pass rush helping him, I doubt Stafford can play well enough for this team to beat one of the elite defenses in the league. The Jets offensive line is also so good that they might be able to nullify the Lions pass rush, especially considering they’ll be motivated to prove themselves after getting shutout last week. Teams normally do well against the spread after being shut out and the Jets offensive front has only given up 11 sacks in 7 games.
New Orleans Saints 28 Carolina Panthers 16
Spread: -6.5 New Orleans
Pick against spread: New Orleans 2 units
The Saints almost lost to the Panthers last time they played and they lost ATS by double digits. However, this looks like a different Saints team after they just beat the Steelers. Of course I said the same thing about them after they beat the Buccaneers and they followed that by a stink bomb at home against the Browns, but beating the Steelers by 10 is impressive and the spread in this one isn’t nearly as crazy as the two touchdown one from when these two met before. I find it hard to believe, if the Saints play well, the Panthers stay within a touchdown of them, but they have before so I’m not putting a ton on it.
San Diego Chargers 37 Houston Texans 19
Spread: -2.5 San Diego
Pick against spread: San Diego 5 units
In each of the last 3 years, the Chargers have started out slow, playing well, but killing themselves with stupid mistakes. Then they’ve had a defining win and gone on a long streak, 11-2 in 2007, 4-0 in 2008, 11-0 in 2009. Once is a luck, two times is a coincidence, three times a trend, and I’m sticking with it. The first two parts of the trend happened this year. They started out 2-5 and looked great against Tennessee last week in a win. I expect them to go on a streak now, continuing with this week against Houston. Houston’s pass defense is horrible and Philip Rivers is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. I expect the Chargers to dominate like they can this week and win this one easily, especially since Houston’s Andre Johnson’s won’t be 100%. The last time he wasn’t 100%, they were destroyed by the Giants.
Baltimore Ravens 21 Miami Dolphins 19
Spread: -5 Baltimore
Pick against spread: Miami 2 units
Well, we know the Dolphins have a good kicker. In their last 2 games, Dan Carpenter is 10 for 10 on field goals. They only have 2 offensive touchdowns in those two games, but they sure can kick. However, they do play teams close. They could have beaten the Jets and Steelers, but lost, and special teams mistakes killed them against New England. Coincidentally, those are the top 3 teams in the AFC. Baltimore’s the better team and should win, but they always do seem to shoot themselves in the foot with turnovers and penalties. They’ve had four wins decided by less than a touchdown and in 3 of them they lost ATS as favorites. We’ve got a team that barely beats teams they should beat by more against a team that barely loses to teams they should lose to by more and a 5 point spread, I’m going underdog.
Minnesota Vikings 28 Arizona Cardinals 18
Spread: -9.5 Minnesota
Pick against spread: Minnesota 1 unit
This spread seems like a little much considering how bad the Vikings have been playing lately. Plus, cutting Randy Moss has made a huge distraction in the locker room. However, I’m still taking the Vikings. The Cardinals are that bad, especially on the road, where they’ve won by 4, lost by 38, lost by 31, and lost by 12 this season. I’m not putting very much on it though because the spread is ridiculously huge.
New York Giants 20 Seattle Seahawks 13
Spread: -7.5 Giants
Pick against spread: Seahawks 1 unit
The Seahawks are an amazing home team. In the past 3+ years, they are 16-11 at home. That might not sound like that good, but compared to 7-21 on the road, it’s pretty good. However, I’m picking against them even as underdogs of 6.5 points. The Seahawks will be without Russell Okung again. The Raiders had 8 sacks last week against Seattle sans Okung. They had 16 in their previous 7 games. The Giants have one of the best pass rushes in the league and have injured 5 quarterbacks this year. Hasselbeck really struggles under pressure. He’s immobile and injury prone. He went 13 for 32 last week against Oakland. He won’t have the benefit of a good run game to lean on this week either. The Giants haven’t allowed a 50 yard rusher since week 3 and rank 3rd in the league in YPC against. If Eli and the Giants can avoid making turnovers (they’re 3rd in the league in most giveaways this season), something that could be an issue in noisy Seattle, they can win this pretty easily. The only reason this is a 2 unit is because of the turnovers.
Update: Charlie Whitehurst will start for an injured Matt Hasselbeck. Whitehurst is a mobile quarterback which could easily negate the Giants pass rush, thus making him more likely to win this game than Hasselbeck. However, he’s unproven and a wildcard and by unproven I mean he’s never thrown a pass in the NFL. I’m not going to bet heavily on someone unproven like that against a good team. However, the spread is now 7.5 points. The Seahawks are an amazing home team and always seem to cover at home. They’ll be playing 110+% at home with their starting quarterback out and I think that’ll be enough to get a cover against a Giants team that is notoriously bad with turnovers.
Kansas City Chiefs 17 Oakland 9 Upset Pick
Spread: -3 Oakland
Pick against spread: Kansas City 2 units
When was the last time the Raiders and Chiefs played a meaningful game as #1 and #2 in the division? I happened to thing both of these teams are overrated, but the Chiefs more so. However, I’m going with the Chiefs as underdogs to win straight up. The Raiders have a way of disappointing right when they start playing well. That could happen this week. Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones also should run all over the Raiders 31st ranked run defense, meaning Cassel won’t have to do much for the billionth week in a row. That should be the only source of offense for either team in this game as both teams have better pass defenses than quarterbacks. The Raiders have the better quarterback, but he’s been terribly inconsistent this season and he’s missing his top 2 receivers.
Indianapolis Colts 41 Philadelphia Eagles 23 Upset Pick, Lock Pick
Spread: -3 Philadelphia
Pick against spread: Indianapolis 6 units
For the second straight week, my lock pick is also an upset pick. The only reason I didn’t make my upset/lock pick a 6 uniter last week was because it was a 2-5 team. Good thing I didn’t, as the Broncos couldn’t do anything in the red zone and lost. I feel a lot more confident putting 6 on the Colts and Peyton Manning. Peyton Manning has lost 3 times as an underdog in his career in games he’s finished. Granted, he’s rarely on underdog, but that’s very few times. 2 were against the Patriots in their heyday. The Eagles aren’t the Patriots in their heyday and the Colts are still the Colts in their heyday, even with all the injuries. Peyton Manning has owned the Eagles, scoring 35+ in all 3 games he’s ever played against them. Considering the Eagles are ranked 15th against the pass (despite playing Alex Smith, David Garrard, and Shaun Hill in 3 games), that could happen again. That 15th rank would also be a lot worse if they couldn’t get to the quarterback, something they’ve done 21 times this season. Peyton Manning has been sacked a league low 7 times this season, so that pass rush should be a not factor allowing Manning to destroy Philly’s secondary. Michael Vick won’t be able to pass to keep up. His two wins this season were against Detroit and Jacksonville. Indy’s 7th ranked secondary is much better than those two. He’ll be able to run and his ability to run will allowed LeSean McCoy to tear up this weak Indy ground defense, but you don’t beat Peyton Manning against a bad pass defense by running. You have to pass to win that type of game. And even if the Eagles somehow win, I get 3 points wiggle room.
Green Bay Packers 33 Dallas Cowboys 26
Spread: -9 Green Bay
Pick against spread: Dallas 1 unit
This is a game the Cowboys can actually win. The Cowboys looked horrible last week and the Packers are coming off the biggest win of their season so they won’t be taking them seriously. This is still a talented team and Kitna is at least a decent quarterback. He threw 4 picks last week, but three were on dropped passes and he completed a high percentage of his passes, even against a large deficit. However, the Cowboys might try even less. They looked dead last week and after playing essentially being eliminated the week before after such high hopes, you can’t blame them. I’m not confident either way here, but I’m taking the Cowboys barely as they are given a big amount of points.
Pittsburgh Steelers 23 Cincinnati Bengals 12
Spread: -4.5 Pittburgh
Pick against spread: Pittsburgh 3 units
The Bengals offense, regardless of what the numbers say, is not good at all. They may be middle of the pack in terms of points, but they’ve been playing a lot of catch up this season and scored a lot of points in garbage time. Also, for some reason, Carson Palmer has gotten very lucky this season. Defenders are dropping so many of his picks. He should have thrown at least 3 if not four against Miami and that’s been the case all season. Pittsburgh is great at creating turnovers and should create plenty this week. Pittsburgh will also neutralize Cedric Benson, the Bengals best offensive player. The Steelers have the league’s best run defense. Benson being unable to run will put more pressure on Palmer and that’s going to lead to picks. The only reason this is a 3 unit and not a 5 is because Cincinnati did win both matchups last season somehow. It’s pretty obvious now that last year’s squad was a fluke and Pittsburgh also is significantly better this year, but that still does scare me a bit.
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