Defensive Tackle/3-4 Defensive End

Auburn

6-4 297

Draft Board Overall Prospect Rank: #3

Draft Board Overall Defensive Tackle Rank: #1

Rating: 96 (Elite)

40 time: 4.82

2/27/11: Fairley came in here trying to separate himself from all the other #1 pick candidates. Being 6-3 291 instead of 6-5 300 didn’t help. For comparison, Marcell Dareus was 6-3 318.

2/20/11: Nick Fairley’s 2010 season was the definition of a breakout season, as the little known defensive tackle from Auburn exploded for 12.5 sacks, .5 more than Ndamukong Suh had in 2009, despite missing one game. However, he widely regarded as a lesser prospect than Ndamukong Suh, for several reasons. One, and most important to me, he only did this one year. He had 1 sack in 2009 and didn’t play in 2008. That’s the definition of a one year wonder. Suh was a 3 year starter that had totaled a fairly impressive 7 sacks in 2008, before his 2009 season.

Suh was also much more well rounded. Suh could deflect passes at the line of scrimmage and chase running backs out of the backfield. In addition to 12 sacks, he also LED his team in tackles and was second in pass deflections. His 26 quarterback pressures were 5 more than Fairley’s 21. Suh also played with better leverage than Fairley

Finally, and the least important reason to me, is Fairley’s “dirty” label. People are calling him an immature personal foul machine that will be suspended several times in his career and commit one 15 yard personal foul penalty every game. While it is true, a lot of Fairley’s hits this year would have drawn penalties in the NFL, but they didn’t in college football. Isn’t it possible he could change his style of play to be less erratic in the NFL? It’s much easier for a coach to calm a player’s play down than to coach him up.

You can’t coach Fairley’s type of motor. He doesn’t take plays off. Just because he committed some dirty hits in college, doesn’t mean he’s going to become Albert Haynesworth, step on Andre Gurode’s face with cleats, only try in contact years, make 100 million dollars and then bitch about a 3-4 scheme he hasn’t even tried yet.

Fairley seems like a good kid. He doesn’t take plays off and while that could certainly change once he’s given a ton of money in the NFL, I’m not going to let that stop me from ranking him high. Any defensive linemen ever drafted high could bust when given a ton of money. Suh could have (he obviously didn’t, but he could have). Besides, Suh wasn’t the cleanest player in college or in the NFL. He was fined several times for hits on quarterbacks this year and had some dirty hits at Nebraska. Fairley’s personal fouls are not as big of a concern as his potential to be a one year wonder and his lack of a complete game like Suh.

However, Fairley could still be drafted higher than Suh. He seems like the consensus top pick right now, and while I still have AJ Green going #1 because I think it’s too soon to tell and Green makes more sense to me. This, however, doesn’t mean that he’s a consensus better prospect than Suh. This is just a weaker class. There’s no Sam Bradford in this class and if there wasn’t one last year, Suh would have been the #1 pick in a heartbeat. If Suh were in this class, Fairley would be the consensus #2 prospect and the Panthers probably would have already announced they were taking Suh. Suh’s just better.

Fairley probably is the only top 3 pick lock in this class right now. He has the ability to play inside in a 4-3 and outside in a 3-4 as a 3-4 defensive end. He won’t fall past the Bills at #3. I just can’t see it happening, barring some sort of freak incident between now and draft day. He’s the best overall defensive lineman in what could be the strongest defensive line class in NFL history.

I wouldn’t take Fairley #1 just because of his one year wonder potential, even if defensive tackle was my #1 need (which I don’t feel it is for Carolina). However, I still have him as my 3^rd overall prospect. He’s a very, very strong prospect. He was simply impossible to keep away from the quarterback this year. He was Suh-like in that regarded and while he isn’t the overall player Suh is, I wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up as the Defensive Player of the Year in 2011 (assuming we have football) and approached Suh’s unbelievable 10 sacks. Fairley appears to be next in the line of 300 pound defensive tackles who pass rush like defensive ends, a fact that should have NFL quarterbacks shitting their pants in fear.

NFL Comparison: Darnell Dockett