Last week overall: 10-6
Last week ATS: 9-7 (+665/+7 units)
Overall picks: 122-70 (.635)
Upset Picks: 4-2 (+690/+7 units)
ATS Picks: 81-104-7 (-9235/-69 units)
Survivor picks: 11-2 (NE, PIT, BAL, GB, NYG, PHI, NO, SF, DAL, SD, ATL, NYJ, DEN)
Upset picks: 18-23 (+2300/+4 units)
2010 Total: +6408
2010/2011 Total: -527
Pittsburgh Steelers 31 Cleveland Browns 6
Pick against spread: Pittsburgh Steelers -14 (-105) 3 units (-315)
The Browns suck. Like they’re absolutely awful. Now they have to go on the road on Thursday Night and play the Steelers. Have fun with that. The Browns will be even more at a disadvantage this week on a short week. Thursday road teams are 5-11 ATS since 2010. Thursday home favorites are 26-11 ATS since 2002, 12-1 ATS as favorites of 7, 6-0 ATS as favorites of 10+.
Some might be worried about betting the Steelers as big favorites after how they’ve fared against Jacksonville, Kansas City, and Indianapolis this year, but I don’t think people should be worried. This is a divisional game and Big Ben always dominates these games. He’s 11-4 ATS as 7+ divisional favorites in his career and 30-18 ATS in divisional games in general in his career. On top of that, he always dominates from week 13 on, going 23-13 ATS after week 13 in his career.
The only reason this isn’t a huge bet is because the Steelers don’t exactly have a “blow out” offense and they have struggled with inferior teams in the past this season, but I think their history against crappy divisional teams should quell those concerns. On top of that, divisional dogs of 6+ are 17-8 ATS after being divisional dogs of 6+, but the Browns didn’t cover in this situation last week. They’re just absolutely awful and this game has blowout written all over it. I’m putting 3 units on this, which is rare for me to do with double digit favorites.
Baltimore Ravens 20 Indianapolis Colts 13
Pick against spread: Indianapolis +16.5 (-110) 3 units (+300)
The Ravens have lost to the Titans, Jaguars, and Seahawks, and barely beat the Cardinals. They blew out the Browns last week, but I’m not sure they’re “cured.” I still like betting against them as they play a bad team because this matchup isn’t divisional, like their matchup was last week. The line is also much bigger.
On top of that, there are some situations to back up the Colts. The Colts are in their 2nd straight game on the road. Teams in this situation are 159-122 ATS since 2008, 77-53 ATS in their 2nd straight as dogs, 51-35 ATS in their 2nd straight as dogs off a loss. Teams in their 2nd of 2 as road dogs are 14-6 ATS since 2002 off a loss, 4-1 ATS off a loss and a cover.
Besides, Dan Orlovsky has proved that he can at least get a garbage time cover against a huge line. Curtis Painter couldn’t even do that. The Ravens don’t have an explosive offense or anything so I do like Orlovsky’s chances of covering as huge dogs, especially given the Ravens’ tendencies to play down to the level of their opponents, and especially given the trends in Indianapolis’ favor.
Atlanta Falcons 27 Carolina Panthers 20
Pick against spread: Atlanta -2.5 (-120) 2 units (+200)
This is a rematch and with all rematches, I like look at their first meeting to see if I can get any insight from that game. The Falcons beat the Panthers 31-17 in Atlanta earlier this season, but the Panthers actually led going into the 4th quarter and the yardage totals were even so it’s not like the Panthers got dominated. And that was in Atlanta. This one is in Carolina, so I do like Carolina’s chances.
That being said, some trends do support Atlanta here. They’re in their 2nd of 2 as road dogs, a situation teams are 159-122 ATS in since 2008, 28-17 ATS in their 2nd straight as road favorites, 60-45 ATS in their 2nd straight as road favorites since 2002. Besides, Mike Smith is awesome off a loss as the Head Coach of the Atlanta Falcons. He’s a whopping 15-3 ATS after a loss, 5-0 ATS after a loss as a favorite since he took over in 2008.
This isn’t going to be a huge bet because the Falcons struggle on the road and because their last matchup was actually pretty even, save for a couple of turnovers. However, I expect the Falcons to be extra focused for a divisional matchup here off of a loss and in a playoff game. Besides, the Panthers always seem to turn the ball over. They haven’t beaten anyone as good as the Falcons yet and I don’t think they can.
Houston Texans 17 Cincinnati Bengals 16 Upset Pick (+125)
Pick against spread: Houston +3 (-120) 2 units (+200)
Can you imagine how good the Texans could be if they were healthy? Mario Williams has missed most of the season. Andre Johnson has effectively done the same now that he’s out again with another hamstring injury. Matt Schaub is done for the season, as is backup Matt Leinart. Arian Foster also missed time.
And yet, they’re 9-3 and on a 5 game winning streak. They still have an awesome defense led by young pass rushers like JJ Watt, Connor Barwin, and Brooks Reed. They also run the ball very well with Arian Foster and Ben Tate behind an awesome offensive line. They’re now 2-0 even without Matt Schaub, beating the Jaguars and the Falcons. The Jaguars might suck, but the Falcons certainly don’t. Last week was incredibly impressive. As long as TJ Yates doesn’t try to do too much, they’ll be fine.
Of course, it’ll hurt Yates that he’s missing Andre Johnson, but Cincinnati is banged up too, missing Leon Hall for the season. They haven’t covered without him, going 0-4 ATS, 1-3 straight up, with that one win in a comeback effort against the lowly Browns. This line is trying to convince me these two teams are equal, but I’m not buying it. Besides, Marvin Lewis and the Bengals have sucked as favorites since 2007, going 9-17 ATS, 5-12 ATS as home favorites.
Once again, this isn’t a huge bet because I haven’t seen enough from TJ Yates to know he won’t shit the bed, but the Texans are a better team than the reeling Bengals. They should be able to establish their game plan, run the football, play defense, protect the quarterback, and don’t make mistakes, en route to another win. The Bengals suck as favorites and might see this as a rest game with TJ Yates coming to town without Andre Johnson after the Bengals just played 4 straight divisional contests.
Detroit Lions 24 Minnesota Vikings 17
Pick against spread: Minnesota +10 (-105) 3 units (+300)
Adrian Peterson is expected to go in this one after a limited practice this week, which will help Minnesota’s offense, but it’s now looking like it could be Joe Webb at quarterback for Minnesota. Christian Ponder is hurt and won’t go if he doesn’t practice Friday and might be a game time decision even if he does practice Friday. With Donovan McNabb being cut, Minnesota would turn to Joe Webb in case Ponder can’t play. That’s obviously a downgrade at quarterback for Minnesota. Webb flashed on occasion last season as a starter, but he overall wasn’t very good. There’s a reason he was 3rd string just a week or so ago.
As for the Lions, they are really not playing good football right now. Since starting 5-0, they’re just 2-5 straight up, 2-5 ATS, with wins over Denver (before they installed their new Tebow friendly offense) and Carolina, who dominated early in that game before playing a big lead. Even when they were 5-0, they weren’t that impressive, needing comebacks to beat both Dallas and these Vikings and not impressive in a double digit win over the Bears on MNF, back when the Bears were 2-3. The Lions don’t really seem to be deserving of being 10 point favorites over anyone.
Speaking of Detroit’s first game against Minnesota, Detroit needed to come back from a 20-0 halftime deficit to win that one 26-23 in overtime. That was hardly an impressive performance and Minnesota has a better quarterback now with Christian Ponder. Meanwhile, the Lions have gone south. That works in Minnesota’s favor as they travel to Detroit as double digit dogs. Also, since that was an overtime loss for Minnesota, that works in Minnesota favor here. Since 2008, teams are 12-5 ATS in a divisional rematch of an overtime loss.
Now let’s go back to that Carolina game. I made Carolina one of my picks of the week that week because all of the trends went against Detroit. One of those trends that was in play that week, the most powerful, is in play here again. Favorites before being dogs (Detroit goes to Oakland next week) and after losing as dogs are 47-74 ATS since 2008.
This is a divisional game, but that trend still affects Detroit somewhat. In divisional games, teams are 19-25 ATS in that situation since 2008, 41-58 ATS since 2002. It’s not quite as powerful, but it’s still prevalent. I know Detroit covered in this situation earlier this season, but they were down big early in that game and have gone even farther downhill since then, losing Ndamukong Suh to injury and losing two games in embarrassing fashion.
This won’t be a big bet on Minnesota because they could be starting Joe Webb, but I don’t think Detroit has any business being double digit favorites over anyone, especially a divisional opponent they almost lost to earlier this season when situations were more in their favor that they were here. Detroit could also be caught looking forward to Oakland last week and reeling off their loss last week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 Jacksonville Jaguars 13 Survivor Pick 11-2 (NE, PIT, BAL, GB, NYG, PHI, NO, SF, DAL, SD, ATL, NYJ, DEN)
Pick against spread: Tampa Bay -2 (-110) 3 units (-330)
Jacksonville is terrible. They made the Chargers look awesome last weekend in a 38-14 loss. They’ve been awful all season, but two things have made them more awful and I don’t think this line takes this into account. For one, both of their cornerbacks are in IR and they don’t have the depth to compensate. Philip Rivers lit them up last week after an awful season so far. The 2nd thing was their coach, Jack Del Rio, getting fired. They know their season is over. That’s incredibly demoralizing.
With all of their injuries on defense, it’s up to the offense to keep up. Blaine Gabbert looked half passable against San Diego last week, but that’s because San Diego’s secondary sucks. Tampa Bay’s isn’t much better, but the Jaguars still only scored 14 points last week. Remarkably, they’ve only scored more than 16 points once this season (20 in a 30-20 loss to Cincinnati). Given their injuries on defense, I can’t see them being competitive in this one with that offense. This game could look a lot like last week’s did.
Speaking of last week’s, Jacksonville is coming off a MNF loss of 21+. Teams in this situation are 12-23 ATS since 2002. The Jaguars never get up for non-divisional games anyway as they are a dreadful 12-26 ATS outside of the division since 2008. That’s awful. Tampa Bay is coming off a bad loss last week, losing by 19 as favorites to Carolina, but Josh Freeman will be back for this one which helps.
Tampa Bay is 11-1 SU against under .500 teams with Josh Freeman at quarterback in the past 2 seasons. On top of that, teams that lose by 21+ ATS are 65-48 ATS the next week, 26-15 ATS as favorites. Finally, the Buccaneers are better on the road under Raheem Morris than at home. They are 14-6 ATS on the road, as opposed to 6-17 ATS on the road. I really like Tampa Bay here.
Philadelphia Eagles 24 Miami Dolphins 17 Upset Pick (+135)
Pick against spread: Philadelphia +3 (-110) 4 units (+400)
So much for the Dream Team. The season is over for the Eagles at 4-8 after a brutal loss to the Seahawks on national TV last week that had many calling for Andy Reid’s job. Vince Young threw 4 interceptions (including a late pick six that made me lose my bet on the under!), DeSean Jackson closed off from his teammates and then blew up at reporters (and rightfully so), and Andy Reid’s hot seat is now on fire.
Call me crazy, but I love the Eagles in this situation. This is a talented team, but they had so much pressure on them since the beginning of the season that they just cracked under it. Now they have no pressure at all. Their season is over. They can just play football. They’ve had 10 days to clear their head since that loss.
Teams are normally better after a Thursday game, going 40-30 ATS since 2008 in that situation, but the Eagles should benefit even more. They have time to calm down and now the pressure is off. Michael Vick and Jeremy Maclin will be back. That will help. DeSean Jackson is pissed, but he’s also playing for a contract. He still has reason to work his ass off. Andy Reid is also coaching for his job and there are still some in that locker room that really support the veteran coach.
On top of this, I have a lot of trends to support my stance. Andy Reid is awesome as an underdog, going 44-29 ATS in this situation in his career, 27-14 ATS as a dog of 3+. He’s also 6-3 ATS as dogs after losing as favorites. The Eagles are in their 2nd of two road games. Andy Reid is 20-11 ATS in this situation as Head Coach of the Eagles and teams in general are 159-122 ATS in their 2nd straight road game since 2008, 61-39 ATS as dogs off a loss, 9-3 ATS as dogs off a loss as favorites since 2002.
Besides, the Dolphins struggle at home and as favorites. They’ve covered 3 times this season in this very situation, but it’s still a somewhat useful trend to note. As opposed to 20-10 ATS on the road, the Dolphins are just 10-21 ATS at home under Sparano. As favorites, they are 6-13 ATS under Sparano, as opposed to 21-17 ATS as dogs. Put those together and you find out that the Dolphins are 5-10 ATS as home favorites under Sparano. That’s not the main reason why the Eagles are my pick of the week, but it certainly helps.
New York Jets 17 Kansas City Chiefs 10
Pick against spread: Kansas City +9 (-110) 2 units (-220)
It’s either Tyler Palko or an injured Kyle Orton who probably doesn’t completely have a grasp of the offense yet this week for the Chiefs. Have fun with that Chiefs fans. However, I still like the Chiefs this week and no I’m not crazy. The Chiefs are 2-0 ATS in their last 2 weeks. Matt Cassel sucked, but Vegas always overrated him. Now they’re underrating the Chiefs.
The Chiefs actually have a solid defense and have covered in their past 2 weeks in situations similar to this one, as large dogs against teams that struggle to move the football. I don’t expect this to be a very high scoring one, so I like the Chiefs chances to cover as 9 point dogs, just like I did last week when they were 9 point dogs in Chicago. They won last week.
Besides, the Chiefs are in their 2nd straight road game. Teams are 159-122 ATS in their 2nd straight road game since 2008, 8-3 ATS in their 2nd straight of 7+ dogs after a win since 2002. The Chiefs won in Chicago as big dogs last week, but are still being underrated here in New York. They have a good enough defense to hold Mark Sanchez and company to a low total and that should allow them to keep this one within 9 and cover.
I’m not crazy confident in this because there aren’t a lot of trends to support it and because the Chiefs have been frequently blown out in the past 2 years and because they’re playing the Packers next week and teams are 3-9 ATS before playing the Packers this season, but I’ll put a couple units on the Chiefs just like I did last week and for similar reasons.
Tennessee Titans 27 New Orleans Saints 24 Upset Pick (+175)
Pick against spread: Tennessee +3.5 (-105) 3 units (-315)
When the Saints were 15 point road favorites in St. Louis, I desperately wanted to bet on the Rams because of how bad the Saints have been on the road, but I didn’t because the Rams were so awful. The Rams won. Won! Ever since then, I’ve been sure to note how terrible the Saints are on the road. They’re 5-10 ATS on the road since 2010, but that doesn’t even go deep enough into it.
They won by 3 in San Francisco (6-10), lost by 10 in Arizona (5-11), beat Tampa Bay by 25 (10-6), beat Carolina by 31 (2-14), beat Dallas by 3 (6-10), beat Cincinnati by 4 (4-12), lost to Baltimore by 6 (12-4), beat Atlanta by 3 (13-3), lost to Seattle by 5 (7-9), lost to Green Bay by 8 (12-0), beat Jacksonville by 13 (3-9), beat Carolina by 3 (4-8), lost to Tampa Bay by 6 (4-8), lost to St. Louis by 10 (2-10), beat Atlanta by 3 (7-5). Other than in the division, they’ve been absolutely awful on the road in the past 2 years, going 1-8 ATS and 4-5 SU, losing to much worse teams than Tennessee.
Tennessee is quietly playing good football. Their defense has gotten better as the season has gone on and Chris Johnson finally looks like Chris Johnson again. I know he’s been beating up on bad run defenses in the past few weeks, but the Saints are near the bottom of the barrel in run defense so Chris Johnson should have another big game and as long as he does that, I think the Titans have a good chance to win here.
As I said earlier, the Saints have lost to worse teams on the road and this game means more to the Titans. The Saints are 2 up in their division and the Titans are 2 back and eliminated (from the division race) with a loss. Even if the Titans don’t win, I still have 3.5 points to play with, so I’m taking Tennessee for one of my bigger picks of a crappy week of games to pick from.
New England Patriots 34 Washington Redskins 20
Pick against spread: New England -9 (+100) 2 units (-200)
The Patriots offense is rolling once more, scoring 30+ in their last 4 on their 4 game winning streak, scoring 140 points total and they could have scored more if they didn’t take Brady out with a 31-3 lead last week. They seem to have hit their stride just like they did late last season when they rolled off a bunch of 30+ point performances with Brady not turning the ball over (10-0 TD-INT in past 4) after a disappointing loss to Cleveland (this year, it was a loss to the Giants). They should get 30 here again with ease.
The question then becomes, can the Redskins score enough to cover? The Colts did last week, but that was only because the Patriots took Brady out and kept giving the Colts the ball against a Patriots defense that was slacking off with a big lead. Rex Grossman could get the backdoor cover here, but I really don’t think we’ll see Belichick take his foot off the gas two weeks in a row. That’s just not like him, especially as the Patriots try to gain momentum going into the playoffs.
Speaking of the Patriots allowing the Colts to come back last week, that made the final score 31-24. Teams that allow 21+ and still win are 147-100 ATS the next week since 2008, 94-57 ATS as favorites, 67-45 ATS as favorites after being favorites. The Patriots are in this situation and should cover for that reason, but this isn’t a big bet because the Patriots are huge road favorites and they do have the kind of defense that could allow a backdoor cover to someone like Rex Grossman, who has been inconsistent this season.
Denver Broncos 20 Chicago Bears 13
Pick against spread: Denver -3.5 (-105) 2 units (-210)
The Broncos have been my pick of the week for the past few weeks and I’ve made 25 units on them since Tebow took over, betting them every time (6-1 ATS). So will they be my pick of the week again this week? Not so fast. They’re not underdogs here. I like betting Tebow as an underdog because all he does is win, but this is a 3.5 point line here. The Broncos play a lot of close games and have had 3 of their 6 wins under Tebow come by 3, with another by 4.
Still that being said, I’m not betting against Tebow here. He still is underrated by Vegas. I’m supposed to believe that the surging Broncos are equals with the Bears with Caleb Hanie and Marion Barber? The Bears lost to the Chiefs last week, and overall haven’t been scoring a lot of points lately. That will allow the Broncos to execute their game plan, though they proved last week they can win a shootout too. That shouldn’t be necessary this week because of the Bears’ offensive challenges. Besides, my Defensive Player of the Year pick (Von Miller) is back for the Broncos so the Bears won’t put up 32 like the Vikings did.
Some trends work against the Broncos. Home favorites before being home dogs are 13-25 ATS since 2008 and the Broncos have the Patriots coming to town next week in what could be the game of the season (how will Tebow do against an elite offense?). On top of that, Lovie Smith is 4-1 ATS as a dog after losing as favorites. The Bears are in that situation after losing to the Chiefs last week. However, I’m not betting against Tebow, especially with still a pretty small line. It’s just a smaller bet this week.
San Francisco 49ers 19 Arizona Cardinals 13
Pick against spread: San Francisco -3.5 (-110) 2 units (-220)
This is another rematch of a 23-7 game in which the 49ers won a few weeks ago. I picked the Cardinals (to cover) in that one because the 49ers had struggled to put away teams of late and because the 49ers could be caught looking forward to the Ravens the week after. The 49ers do play the Steelers next week, so they could be caught looking forward to that, but the line isn’t as big here. The 49ers shouldn’t have any problem beating an Arizona team that doesn’t have a very good offense by 4 in a conservative game.
The reasons this isn’t a bigger bet is because the 49ers will be missing Patrick Willis and you never know how big of a loss that could be for them. Also the Cardinals do have Kevin Kolb back and he’s not quite as bad as John Skelton, who started last time. Also, I don’t have any trends to support this pick and the Cardinals have been playing good football of late (5-1 ATS in their last 6). However, I don’t think the 49ers should have that much trouble beating the Cardinals by 4+.
Green Bay Packers 31 Oakland Raiders 24
Pick against spread: Oakland +11 (-110) 2 units (-220)
The Packers are 12-0 after beating the Giants, the last team on their schedule that anyone thought actually had a chance to beat them. Now they’re expected to cruise to 16-0, unless they rest their starters, which it doesn’t look like they’re going to. However, that could mean they could become complacent and the Raiders aren’t a bad team. They’re 7-5, which is actually a better record than the Giants. Besides, this has been a weird season. Wouldn’t an Oakland win here just make sense with all that’s happened this year?
I’m not picking Oakland to win, I’m just saying. Given that, they should have a decent shot to cover as 11 point underdogs. I do have some trends to support this on top of just the sheer fact that Green Bay could become complacent. First I’ll start with a trend that supports the Packers. Teams that allow 21+ and still win are 147-100 ATS the next week since 2008, 94-57 ATS as favorites, 67-45 ATS as favorites after being favorites.
Now for trends that support Oakland. Aaron Rodgers has been awesome since 2009, going 31-16 ATS, but he’s only 7-5 ATS as 10+ dogs so it’s not completely farfetched that Oakland could cover. On top of that, Oakland is in their 2nd straight road game. Teams are 159-122 ATS in their 2nd straight road game since 2008, 61-39 ATS as dogs off a loss.
I’m not making this a huge bet or anything, because Aaron Rodgers is awesome. As I said earlier, he’s 31-16 ATS in the last 3 years. That’s insane. However, the Packers could become complacent after a huge, close, road win last week and not take the Raiders seriously and the Raiders deserve to be taken pretty seriously. The Raiders also have a good trend in their favor and the Packers don’t have a very good defense so there’s always a chance for a backdoor cover with Carson Palmer in a high scoring game.
San Diego Chargers 31 Buffalo Bills 27
Pick against spread: Buffalo +7 (-115) 2 units (-230)
After the Chargers beat the Jaguars last week on MNF, NFL.com posted something on Facebook asking if the Chargers were back in the playoff race? Yeah…no. They’re still 5-7 and 2 back of 2 teams they’ve lost to recently. Besides, it’s not that impressive to beat the 3-9 Jaguars who had recently fired their coach, especially considering the Jaguars were missing their top 2 cornerbacks. And the Chargers defense was so bad that made Blaine Gabbert look passable for at least a half. Ryan Fitzpatrick is much better than Gabbert so he has a good chance of keeping this one within 7 points.
Normally I side with a team coming off a huge MNF win as teams are 25-11 ATS off a 21+ MNF win since 2002, but I’m going against that trend this week for good reasons. However, that trend is very prevalent and powerful so this won’t be a huge bet. That said, the Chargers are also home favorites before being home dogs with Baltimore coming to town next week. Teams are 13-25 ATS in that situation since 2008. Besides, given the Chargers’ remaining schedule (Buffalo, Baltimore, Detroit, Oakland), they could finish 6-10 or worse. Teams that do that are a mere 22-61 ATS since 2002 as favorites of 6+.
The Bills are on a 5 game losing streak and they’ve suffered too many injuries for me to pick them here on the road to win after traveling 3 time zones, but I think they can keep this within 7 points. Ryan Fitzpatrick is still a solid quarterback and the Chargers have an awful pass defense and two powerful trends work against San Diego. This would be a bigger bet, but I hate picking teams on long losing streaks and picking against teams off a huge MNF win.
New York Giants 27 Dallas Cowboys 24 Upset Pick (+160)
Pick against spread: NY Giants +3.5 (-115) 2 units (+200)
Both of these teams normally struggle late in the season. The Giants are 24-36 straight up in the 2nd half of the season, as opposed to 47-17 in the first half, under Tom Coughlin. Meanwhile, from week 13 on, Tony Romo is 9-16 ATS, 6-13 ATS as favorites. That makes me very uncomfortable about betting on either side, but I’m siding with the Giants.
The Giants actually looked good last week, while the Cowboys have really struggled for weeks. They almost lost to Washington and Miami and then did lose to Arizona. Besides, I just trust Eli Manning in a key game more than Romo, especially in December. On top of that, Romo is just 3-6 ATS in his career against the Giants and the Cowboys could be flat after a road overtime loss. Teams coming off a road overtime loss are 27-44 ATS since 2002. That being said, I don’t trust either of these teams.
Seattle Seahawks 24 St. Louis Rams 10
Pick against spread: Seattle -9.5 (-115) 1 unit (+100)
The Seahawks are a great home team, especially since 2007. At home since then, they’re 26-14 ATS, as opposed to 13-26 ATS on the road. The Rams, meanwhile, haven’t played well on the road lately, as has been the case with most NFC West teams. Discounting the 2011 49ers, NFC West teams are just 19-32 ATS on the road since 2010 and 11-20 ATS on the road within the division since 2009.
Seattle is also coming off a win on Thursday Night Football. Teams coming off a Thursday Night game are 40-30 ATS since 2008. The Seahawks are also in a rare situation in their 2nd straight home game after a Thursday Night Game. Not only do they have extra rest, but they’ve been at home this whole time. Teams are 3-1 ATS in this situation since 2008 (you can see how rare it is), 8-3 ATS since 2002, and 21-11 ATS since 1989. Since this is a Monday Night game, the Seahawks have that much extra rest to prepare for this one.
Those trends are all powerful, however, I don’t really like picking the Seahawks as 9.5 favorites over anyone, even at home. Besides, the Rams have some trends in their favor. Teams are 159-122 ATS in their 2nd straight road game since 2008, 61-39 ATS as dogs off a loss, 77-53 ATS in their 2nd straight as dogs, and 51-35 ATS in their 2nd straight as dogs off a loss. That being said, I don’t want any part of Tom Brandstater, who will be starting for the already offensive challenged Rams here. The trends in the Seahawks favor seem a little bit more powerful, especially since Seattle’s home crowd could be extra charged for a divisional MNF game. I don’t love either side, but I’m taking the Seahawks for 1.
LV Hilton: Philadelphia +3, Tennessee +3.5, Pittsburgh -14, Indianapolis +16.5, Tampa Bay PK (29-35-1)
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