Last week overall: 13-3
Last week ATS: 7-9 (-550/-4 units)
Overall picks: 135-73 (.649)
Upset Picks: 3-1 (+320/+2 units)
ATS Picks: 88-113-7 (-9785/-73 units)
Survivor picks: 11-3 (NE, PIT, BAL, GB, NYG, PHI, NO, SF, DAL, SD, ATL, NYJ, DEN, TB)
Upset picks: 21-24 (+2620/+6 units)
2010 Total: +6408
2010/2011 Total: -757
Overrated
The Bengals are 1-4 SU in their last 5, with one win coming by 3 in comeback fashion against the lowly Browns in Cincinnati. They haven’t covered, 0-5 ATS, since losing Leon Hall, their best defensive player.
The Cowboys are 1-6 ATS in their last 7, and have struggled to beat both Miami and Washington, and lost to Arizona. They also do this every December.
The Lions are 2-6 ATS, 3-5 SU, in their last 8 and needed big comebacks to beat the Cowboys and Vikings even when they were playing well.
The 49ers haven’t beaten anyone and they just lost to the Cardinals. They aren’t as good as their 10-3 SU record suggests.
The Buccaneers have lost 7 straight and are 1-6 ATS in that stretch, including ugly losses to Jacksonville and Carolina in the past two weeks. They’re very banged up and lead the league in turnovers.
Underrated
The Cardinals are 5-2 SU in their last 7, 6-1 ATS.
The Falcons are 6-3 SU in their last 9, with losses to New Orleans (10-3), Green Bay (13-0), and Houston (10-3).
The Broncos have won 6 straight, 5 of which were as underdogs, and are 6-2 ATS since Tebow took over, 6-1 ATS as dogs or favorites of less than 3. It’s time to start believing.
The Texans have won and covered in 7 straight and TJ Yates isn’t too bad.
The Vikings have only lost by more than 10 twice this season, despite their 2-11 record, and one of those instances was against Green Bay. They’ve also only lost by 7+ 3 times (Green Bay, Atlanta, Chicago).
The Eagles have no pressure anymore and played like it against Miami. I think they play great football the rest of the way as they have a bunch of players and coaches playing and coaching for their jobs.
The Chargers have won 2 in a row and are now a whopping 20-1 SU during weeks 14-17 with Philip Rivers.
The Seahawks are 5-1 SU in their last 6 and would be 6-0 if not for a late loss against Washington. They’re also 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11.
Atlanta Falcons 27 Jacksonville Jaguars 9
Pick against spread: Atlanta Falcons -11 (-110) 2 units (+200)
The Jaguars scored 41 points last week. Previously, they had only scored more than 16 once all season and that was when they score 20 in a 30-20 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals. However, that doesn’t mean their offense got better. It was the combination of two things. One, Tampa Bay’s awful pass defense made Blaine Gabbert look at least mediocre as he completed 19 of 33 for 217 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 2 picks. Two, Tampa Bay, who leads the league in turnovers, turned the ball over 7 times, including two fumble sixes, that led to 14 Jacksonville points.
Atlanta doesn’t have the best pass defense, but they’re better than Tampa Bay’s so Blaine Gabbert could once again struggle offensively. Atlanta also won’t turn the ball over 7 times so Jacksonville could really have a tough time scoring. On top of that, the Jaguars have to travel on a short work week and play their 3rd game in 11 days (they were on MNF two weeks ago).
Thursday road teams are 6-11 ATS since 2010. Thursday home favorites are 26-12 ATS since 2002, 12-2 ATS as favorites of 7+, 6-1 ATS as favorites of 10+. The Browns covered as 14 point underdogs on the road last week, but that was only because Ben Roethlisberger got hurt and the Steelers fumbled twice in their own red zone. Still, the Browns scored only 3 points. Thursday Night games are typically very low scoring, especially for the road team so the Jaguars could have trouble cracking double figures this week.
Given that, I really like Atlanta’s chances to cover. Atlanta is a great home team under Mike Smith, 19-11 ATS at home, 15-8 ATS as home favorites. They’re also favorites coming off a win in which they allowed 21+ points, a situation teams are 95-59 ATS in since 2008. Meanwhile, Jacksonville is a mere (and ridiculous) 13-26 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2007. And all of this is on top of the fact that Jacksonville is a Thursday road team.
However, there are two reasons why this isn’t a very big bet. For one, Atlanta plays New Orleans next week and could be more focused on that game than this one. Favorites before being divisional dogs are 51-74 ATS since 2008, 3-10 ATS as favorites of 10+, 8-17 ATS as favorites of 10+ since 2002. The 2nd reason is that Atlanta just doesn’t blow a lot of teams out, even at home. If you look at their wins in the Mike Smith era, there aren’t a ton by 10+, at least not a ton if you consider their overall record. As good as they are at home, they’re only 1-2 ATS as 10+ point favorites at home, so this is still a pretty conservative bet.
Dallas Cowboys 20 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19
Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +7 (-120) 2 units (-240)
The Cowboys have secretly not been playing good football of late. They may not have a horrible SU record in their past 7, but they’re still being overrated by Vegas as they’ve gone 1-6 ATS in their last 7. They struggled to beat Washington and Miami and lost to Arizona. Last week’s loss to the Giants was excusable, but it still wasn’t good. And if history is any indications, things will only get worse for the Cowboys as Tony Romo is 9-17 ATS from week 13 on, 6-14 ATS as favorites.
Now they have to travel to Tampa Bay on a shorter week (this is a Saturday Night Game) and play the Buccaneers, who could put forth a lot of effort to play the Cowboys on a national stage. The Cowboys could be really flat off that loss. Non-divisional favorites after a divisional loss are 42-57 ATS since 2008 and that doesn’t even take into account that it was a close loss in which Dallas led by multiple touchdowns late and had the game tying field goal go in, only to have to come back after Tom Coughlin successfully iced the kicker.
One trend that goes in Dallas’ favor is that teams are 17-3 ATS since 2008 after losing a game in which they scored 34+ points. New York was in that situation last week after losing to Green Bay and they covered. Dallas could do something similar, but considering their poor ATS record of late, how heartbreaking that loss was last week, the fact that it was a divisional loss (teams are 7-4 ATS since 2002 after a divisional loss in which they scored 34+, so not as powerful), and how poor Romo always plays in December, I’m leaning towards Tampa Bay here at home on a short week.
Tampa Bay is just 5-16 ATS at home under Raheem Morris though and I hate going against a 17-3 ATS trend, and I also hate picking an absolutely terrible team in Tampa Bay, who has lost by a combined 79-33 to Carolina and Jacksonville in the past two weeks, and leads the league in turnovers. Tampa Bay is also just 3-11 SU against +.500 teams in the last 2 seasons, so this isn’t a huge bet, but I’m taking Tampa for a couple.
Miami Dolphins 27 Buffalo Bills 13 Upset Pick (+110)
Pick against spread: Miami +2 (-110) 3 units (+300)
Remember when Buffalo was 5-2 and a legitimate playoff contender? That was fun. However, they’ve lost 6 straight. Meanwhile, the Dolphins may have started 0-7, but are 4-2 in their last 6, losing by 1 to Dallas and losing last week to Philadelphia after Matt Moore got knocked out with a concussion. Moore is expected back this week, as is Jake Long. His absence was felt against the Eagles, who sacked Moore and JP Losman a combined 9 times last week.
Moore has shown the ability to beat up on bad teams this year, beating Kansas City 31-3, Washington 20-9, and even beating these Bills at home 35-8. The Bills are an absolute mess right now so I see no reason why the Dolphins can’t have a similar game this week, especially since they might even be better on the road, going 20-10 ATS on the road, as opposed to 10-22 ATS at home, since 2008. Meanwhile, the Bills are in a sandwich spot, as favorites before being dogs (Denver) and after losing as dogs, a situation teams are 47-74 ATS in since 2008. The only reason this isn’t a huge bet is that Miami fired Tony Sparano this week and teams are 5-12 ATS off of firing their coach midseason in the last 17 instances.
Seattle Seahawks 17 Chicago Bears 13 Upset Pick (+190)
Pick against spread: Seattle +4 (-115) 4 units (+400)
Seattle is normally a team I like to bet on at home and bet against on the road, and with good reason. They’re 27-14 ATS at home since 2007 and 13-26 ATS on the road in that same time period. Besides, NFC West teams in general (excluding the 2011 San Francisco 49ers because they’re actually good) are 19-33 ATS on the road since 2010. However, Seattle has improved on the road this season. They’re actually 3-2-1 ATS on the road this season, and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4. Remember, they beat New York in New York earlier this season.
I also think Seattle is a very underrated team. They’re 5-1 SU in their last 6 and would be 6-0 if not for a late loss against Washington. On top of that, in their last 11, they’re a whopping 8-2-1 ATS and they’ve even been good on the road, as I’ve mentioned. They’re also coming off a big win on MNF last week, winning by 17, 30-13 against the Rams. Teams off a MNF win of 17+ are 37-21 ATS since 2002 and though they’re only 11-10 ATS off a win between 17-21 points, I still think that should be able to carry some of that momentum into this week. They don’t have the best offense, but they’re disciplined under a great coach in Pete Carroll and they can run the ball with Marshawn “Beast Mode” Lynch.
I would argue that Seattle’s offense is probably better than Chicago’s. They don’t have Jay Cutler. They don’t have Marion Barber. I know Denver has a good defense and that’s an excuse for why they scored 10 in Denver last week, but what about scoring 3 at home against the Chiefs? I think Chicago is pretty overrated here. They’re not playing good football and don’t deserve to be 4 point home favorites to a Seattle team with a great ATS record of late, who hasn’t even been playing badly on the road since week 2.
The Bears could also be really flat this week. This is a sandwich situation for sure at home as favorites after losing in Denver last week as underdogs. They also go to Green Bay next week. Teams are 3-11 ATS before playing the Packers this season and you have to think it could be even harder for the Bears to get up before playing the Packers than normal teams because the Bears view the Packers as their biggest rivals. The Bears got absolutely flattened by the Saints week 2 before they played the Packers week 3. If they couldn’t get up for the Saints before playing the Packers, why would they get up for the “lowly” Seahawks and Tarvaris Jackson. Favorites before being divisional dogs are 51-74 ATS since 2008 and that definitely applies this week.
The Bears could be especially flat after their loss to Tebow and company last week. For those of you who didn’t see it, I’m sure you read about what happened by now. Either that, or you’re living under a rock. Losing that way is absolutely terrible and the Bears might not be able to bounce back from that. Teams are 27-45 ATS off a road OT loss since 2002, 17-33 ATS at home the next week and that might not even capture how flat the Bears could be this week.
Combine the Bears upcoming game with the Packers and their crushing loss last week to Denver and you’ve got a sandwich game. The Seahawks are 5-1 SU in their last 6 and would be 6-0 if not for a late loss against Washington. They’re also 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11. Favorites before being dogs and after losing as dogs are 47-75 ATS since 2008, 16-28 ATS before being divisional dogs, 42-66 ATS before being divisional dogs since 2002. Favorite before being dogs and after losing as dogs in overtime are 4-10 ATS since 2002.
Plus, as I said, that doesn’t even capture how bad their loss last week was and how bad their game next week against the Packers will be for the Bears. The Seahawks might not be the greatest team, but their playing much better of late, even on the road, and I think they have the kind of team that can take advantage of all the trends against Chicago and at least cover as more than field goal underdogs.
Houston Texans 31 Carolina Panthers 17
Pick against spread: Houston -6.5 (-105) 3 units (-315)
The Houston Texans are the NFL’s hottest team. They’ve won 7 in a row AND covered in all 7 and have survived injuries to their top 2 quarterbacks, their top receiver, and their best pass rusher in the process. TJ Yates has shown himself to be a passable starter, beating both Cincinnati and Atlanta in the past two weeks and their awesome defense (1st in yards, 4th in scoring), running game (2nd in yards), and offensive line (8th best with just 24 sacks allowed) has made things very easy for Yates. On top of that, Yates could get his top receiver, Andre Johnson, back this week.
And yet Vegas says this Houston team is 3.5 points better than Carolina? What? Carolina is 4-9 and their only wins have come against Jacksonville, Washington, Tampa Bay, and Indianapolis. Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and New England would all be at least 10 point favorites at home for Carolina, but Houston is 6.5. Houston continues to be very underrated by Vegas, part of the reason why they’ve managed to cover 7 in a row. I expect them to make it 8 in a row this week. I have no trends on either side to back this up, which is why this is only 3 units, but I do really like Houston this week.
Tennessee Titans 24 Indianapolis Colts 10 Survivor Pick 11-3 (NE, PIT, BAL, GB, NYG, PHI, NO, SF, DAL, SD, ATL, NYJ, DEN, TB)
Pick against spread: Tennessee -6.5 (-105) 2 units (-210)
So much for Dan Orlovsky being an upgrade at quarterback. Dan Orlovsky looked good statistically against a terrible New England pass defense in garbage time, going 30 of 37 for 353 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception, but struggled against a real defense, Baltimore’s, last week, going 17 of 37 for 136 yards, a touchdown, and a pick and this stats were even worse if he exclude a garbage time touchdown late.
Orlovsky covered in both of those games, but that was as 21 and 17 point underdogs respectively. Tennessee might not be the greatest team, but I can’t see Indianapolis keeping this within 6, even if Orlovsky has pulled off back to back backdoor covers. The last time Indianapolis lost by less than 7 was week 5, and that was against the lowly Colts. They are the probably the worst team ever and even though I don’t have any trends here, I have no problem taking Tennessee for a couple as sizeable road favorites.
Green Bay Packers 41 Kansas City Chiefs 9
Pick against spread: Green Bay -14 (-110) 3 units (-330)
The Chiefs had 4 yards of offense in the first half last week. 4!!! My high school alma mater could have at least gotten 5 (by the way, shout out to BCP for going to states for the 2nd year in a row, let’s just hope the other team doesn’t have 7 guys who look like Troy Polamalu this time). Anyway, if you’re wondering why Todd Haley was fired, that’s why, 4 yards in the first half. Plus he’s a douche.
Romeo Crennel will take over as head coach on an interim basis. Forget that Crennel has absolutely no success as an NFL Head Coach (he’s an excellent defensive coordinator, however), his still has to make his return to Head Coaching against the Packers. That’s no fun. The Chiefs could be really flat this week after losing their Head Coach. Teams that fire their head coach midseason are 5-13 ATS in the last 18 instances and it’s not like the Chiefs needed anything to make them more flat. They’re terrible anyway and their playing the Packers. Another trend working against them, they’re in their first of 2+ as home dogs. Teams in this situation are 56-72 ATS since 2008, 13-22 ATS off a loss as road dogs.
As for the Packers, Aaron Rodgers is 32-16 ATS since 2009. He’s playing insane right now and this game could be over at halftime like the Packers’ game against a superior opponent last week in the Oakland Raiders. Greg Jennings is out for the Packers, but the Packers’ offense is so good that it’s basically next in line for them. They have so much depth at wide receiver. Guys like Donald Driver, James Jones, and Randall Cobb will all be able to step up in Jennings’ absence, as will the tight end Jermichael Finley as Rodgers’ #1 option Jordy Nelson.
The Packers may be just 4-3 ATS on the road this season and I hate betting on huge road favorites and I’m taking the Packers here as 14 point road favorites here in Kansas City for a pretty big amount. This is going to be an absolute blowout. The Chiefs stink and have just lost their head coach. There are also trends in the Packers’ favor and besides, it’s not like the Chiefs haven’t been blown out a lot in the past two years. Despite a modest 15-15 record (including playoffs), the Chiefs have actually lost 9 times by 20+ and to much worse teams than the Packers. Maybe that’s why Todd Haley was fired. That and he’s a douche.
New Orleans Saints 27 Minnesota Vikings 24
Pick against spread: Minnesota Vikings +7 (-110) 4 units (-440)
This is what I wrote about the Saints last week in my Saints/Titans game pick. “When the Saints were 15 point road favorites in St. Louis, I desperately wanted to bet on the Rams because of how bad the Saints have been on the road, but I didn’t because the Rams were so awful. The Rams won. Won! Ever since then, I’ve been sure to note how terrible the Saints are on the road. They’re 5-10 ATS on the road since 2010, but that doesn’t even go deep enough into it.
They won by 3 in San Francisco (6-10), lost by 10 in Arizona (5-11), beat Tampa Bay by 25 (10-6), beat Carolina by 31 (2-14), beat Dallas by 3 (6-10), beat Cincinnati by 4 (4-12), lost to Baltimore by 6 (12-4), beat Atlanta by 3 (13-3), lost to Seattle by 5 (7-9), lost to Green Bay by 8 (12-0), beat Jacksonville by 13 (3-9), beat Carolina by 3 (4-8), lost to Tampa Bay by 6 (4-8), lost to St. Louis by 10 (2-10), beat Atlanta by 3 (7-5). Other than in the division, they’ve been absolutely awful on the road in the past 2 years, going 1-8 ATS and 4-5 SU, losing to much worse teams than Tennessee.”
The Saints won last week 22-17, but that doesn’t mean their road woes are cured. In fact, I think last week’s game just proved their road woes. They didn’t look good at all. They could have easily lost that game and their offense looked really out of sync, scoring just 22 points. That win improved them to 6-10 ATS on the road since 2010, 2-8 ATS outside the division and as you can see above, they’ve lost to and barely beaten teams as bad as the Vikings are.
The Saints do have one trend in their favor. They’re in their 2nd straight road game. Teams are 162-125 ATS in their 2nd of 2 road games since 2008, 29-17 ATS in their 2nd of 2 as road favorites, 20-11 ATS off a win, 14-8 ATS off a win and a cover. However, I don’t think this matters all that much as the Saints are awful on the road, compared to at home, especially outside of the division.
Besides, I think the Vikings are very underrated. They’ve only lost by 7+ 3 times this season, despite 11 losses, and those losses were to the Bears (pre-injuries), Packers, and Falcons, all good teams, and all on the road. They haven’t lost by 7+ at home all season and they’re much healthier this week than they’ve been in the past few with Adrian Peterson and Christian Ponder both expected to start. I wish we were getting a little bit more than 7 here, but I’m still putting 4 on the Vikings as I expect the Saints offense to struggle again on the road and the Vikings to play yet another close game (and lose).
New York Giants 23 Washington Redskins 20
Pick against spread: Washington Redskins +7 (-115) 3 units (+300)
This is a sandwich game for the Giants. Favorites before and after being dogs are 71-100 ATS since 2008, a trend that is more powerful when the team is coming off a loss as dogs. The Giants are coming off a win as dogs, but it’s a divisional win. I had to go back to 1989 to get an accurate picture of this trend, but divisional favorites before being dogs and after winning as divisional dogs are 22-38 ATS since 1989. Besides, last week’s win was a close one as they won by 3 points. Favorites off a divisional win of 3 or fewer are 11-25 ATS since 2008, 2-6 ATS as divisional favorites, 5-19 ATS as divisional favorites since 2002.
Two trends do work for the Giants here and one relates to their win last week. Favorites coming off a win in which in allow 21+ points are 95-59 ATS since 2008, 10-4 ATS after allowing 34+. The other trend relates to Washington beating New York week 1 in Washington. Teams trying to avenge a 14+ divisional loss as favorites are 43-28 ATS since 2002.
However, I still like the Giants are not just because this is a sandwich game and they have more trends working against them than for them. The Giants had lost 4 straight going into last week’s win over the Cowboys. I don’t think that win over the Cowboys necessarily reverses all that. The Cowboys are a very overrated team who is just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 and has lost to Arizona and barely beaten Miami and Washington in the last 4 weeks. The Giants are still 25-36 straight up in the 2nd half of the season, as opposed to 47-17 in the first half, under Tom Coughlin. That can’t be ignored.
Meanwhile, I think the Redskins are a bit underrated. Rex Grossman isn’t terrible and the Redskins are actually 3-1 ATS in their last 4 and the one loss coming in a game that was close into the 4th quarter as 3 point home dogs to the Jets. Besides, it’s not like the Giants are blowing teams out. Eli Manning almost has as many 4th quarter comebacks as Tim Tebow. 5 of the Giants 7 wins have come back 4 or less, including their last 5. They haven’t won by more than 4 since week 3 and they’ve let inferior teams like Miami and Buffalo hang with them at home, as well as a home loss to Seattle. I’m expecting the Giants to start out flat, hung over from last week’s won, and then Eli to lead another 4th quarter comeback, winning, but not covering.
Cincinnati Bengals 20 St. Louis Rams 10
Pick against spread: Cincinnati -6.5 (-105) 1 unit (+100)
The Bengals haven’t covered since losing Leon Hall. They aren’t the same team without him. Since losing him, they’re 1-4, with one win coming in comeback fashion by 3 at home for the lowly Browns. They are proving themselves to be very overrated and they haven’t really beaten anyone of note. Besides, they have really struggled as favorites since 2007, going 9-20 ATS, 4-7 ATS as road favorites.
That may make you think I’m taking the Rams. No, no, no, no. The Rams are absolutely awful. They recently went over 8 quarters without scoring a touchdown and only scored a touchdown because of a taunting penalty on a failed 3rd and goal, which gave them new life, and they almost weren’t able to take advantage of it, which would have meant they would have failed 3 times that they started with 1st and goal on the 1 last week. I found it hilarious that it took until the 8th or 9th try for them to try running Steven Jackson up the middle. They tried everything else, passing, running with Cadillac Williams, a quarterback sneak with Sam Bradford and his gimpy ankle. Why was Steven Jackson their last option?!
The Rams lost by 17 on MNF and it could have been a lot worse. Even so, teams are 20-37 ATS after a loss of 17+ on MNF, 7-14 ATS after a loss of between 17 and 21 points. The Bengals aren’t in an ideal situation here, but they are 3-3 ATS as favorites this season, and 2-0 ATS as road favorites. I don’t love them or anything, but I’m taking the side I hate least and going with the Bengals for 1.
Oakland Raiders 24 Detroit Lions 20 Upset Pick (+100) 3 units (-300)
Pick against spread: Oakland +1 (-110) 0 units
I’m actually going against the only prominent trend in play here and that’s the trend that favorites coming off a win in which they allow 21+ points are 95-59 ATS since 2008. The Lions did that last week and are in that situation this week. However, this line is ridiculous. The Lions aren’t 4 points better than the Raiders. These teams are equal. This line should be -3 and even then I probably would have put a unit on the Raiders.
The Lions are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8, 3-5 SU. They haven’t looked good since their 5-0 start and even when they started 5-0, they still needed big comebacks to beat Dallas and Minnesota. I think they’re one of the most overrated teams in the league. I know they’re getting Ndamukong Suh back from suspension, but I don’t know how much that will help. I would take the Raiders for 2 units, but instead of taking +1 (-110), I’m taking the money line (+100). 1 point games are rare.
Arizona Cardinals 13 Cleveland Browns 12
Pick against spread: Cleveland +6.5 (-105) 2 units (+200)
The Cardinals have been playing great football of late and are quietly 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in their last 7, beating teams like San Francisco and Dallas and almost beating Baltimore in Baltimore. However, I’m going against them this week because all the trends go against them, as does common sense. Last week’s comeback win over the previous 10-2 49ers, a division rival, at home as underdogs, was essentially their Super Bowl. I can’t see them giving anywhere near that kind of effort this week against the lowly Browns. Favorites off a divisional win of 3 or fewer are 11-25 ATS since 2008.
Besides, this is a sandwich game for the Cardinals, who head to Cincinnati next week. Favorites before being dogs and after winning as divisional dogs are 48-67 ATS since 2002 and favorites before and after before dogs are 71-100 ATS since 2008. The Browns are also in their 2nd straight road game. Teams in their 2nd straight road game are 162-124 ATS since 2008, 78-55 ATS in 2nd straight as dogs, 63-40 ATS off a loss, 52-36 ATS off a loss as road dogs. The Browns also have extra rest off a Thursday Night Game, a situation teams are 42-30 ATS in since 2008.
I like Cleveland here, but this only a 2 unit bet for several reasons. For one, Arizona is really playing good football of late and I hate betting against a team who is 6-1 ATS in their last 7. Secondly, the Browns are absolutely terrible. I can’t see them winning another game the rest of the way, especially not on the road against a team playing good football. The situations and trends may say Browns, but this line isn’t big enough for me to put any more than 2 on the Browns. I also still think the Cardinals will win.
New England Patriots 31 Denver Broncos 27
Pick against spread: Denver +6 (-110) 3 units (-330)
TEEEEEEEEEEEEEEBOW. What Tebow did last week was insane, but I’m not going to repeat myself. You can read the roughly 1500 words I wrote about him yesterday. By the way, I do plan on giving Skip Bayless a run for his money as President of the Tebow bandwagon. The general consensus seems to be, there’s no way he can do that again, especially against Tom Brady. The consensus is that he’ll struggle against a team that can actually move the ball, like the Lions did a while back.
For one thing, that Lions game was a complete fluke. John Fox’s game plan was still idiotic and non-Tebow friendly back then. Fox has fixed his game plan and emerged as a potential coach of the year candidate. For another thing, Tebow can throw. He led the Broncos to 35 points against the Vikings a couple weeks ago and New England’s defense might even be worse than Minnesota’s. Rex Grossman torched them! Rex Grossman!
I don’t think Brady should have too much trouble scoring this week and I expect a 6th straight 30+ point game for the Patriots, as good as the Broncos defense has been, but Tebow can hang with that. Tebow is best under pressure. If Brady is scoring every drive, that 4th quarter pressure that Tebow thrives under will be all game. He’ll be playing hurry up, shotgun, high pressure football all game and that’s where he’s at his best. The reason he started 3-16 against the Bears was because there was no pressure. His defense was playing awesome against Caleb Hanie and company and didn’t allow a score until midway through the 3rd. It wasn’t until the game was 10-0 that the pressure really started to mount and we all know what happened then.
That being said, I like Brady to win and I don’t think it’ll be Tebow’s fault. The Patriots will just have the ball last. Brady knows a thing or two about 4th quarter comebacks. I guess you could say he’s the original Tebow. There’s a reason he’s 131-43 SU in his career. But as long as we’re getting 6 points with Tebow, I’m taking the Broncos for a significant amount of units. Tebow is 6-1 ATS as a dog of favorite of less than 3 this season and that definitely applies here. Two trends do favor the Patriots. Teams in their 2nd straight road game are 162-124 ATS since 2008, 29-17 ATS as dogs, 6-3 ATS after winning, but not covering, 8-5 ATS since 2002. Favorites coming off a win in which in allow 21+ points are 95-59 ATS since 2008. However, with Tebow, you almost have to throw all the trends out the door.
Philadelphia Eagles 27 New York Jets 17
Pick against spread: Philadelphia -1 (-135) 3 units (+300)
The Eagles looked awesome last week. It was almost like they were some sort of Dream Team who signed every major free agent on the market this offseason. In all seriousness, I actually think the Eagles are underrated right now. They have no pressure anymore. They can just play football. Plus, Michael Vick and Jeremy Maclin are back from injuries. DeSean Jackson is playing for money. Andy Reid is coaching for his job. This team has so much talent and now we’re seeing it. Besides, Andy Reid teams always get better as the season goes on.
One trend works against the Eagles here. Favorites before being divisional dogs are 51-74 ATS since 2008 and the Eagles play the Cowboys next week, but favorites of less than 3 are 14-17 ATS in this situation. I’m actually 10-3 ATS picking Eagles games this season so I trust my intuition that they’re going to play good football until the end of the season and I’m taking them as small favorites to win at home against the Jets.
San Diego Chargers 27 Baltimore Ravens 20 Upset Pick (+115) 5 units (+575)
Pick against spread: San Diego +1.5 (+100) 0 units
I bet against the Chargers the last 2 weeks even though it was December because of how awful the Chargers have been this season. However, the Chargers are once again awesome in December. I don’t get it, but I’ll roll with it since it is a very powerful trend. Philip Rivers is 15-6 ATS from 14-17, 20-1 SU, 3-0 ATS as dogs, and 9-3 ATS at home. Rivers is also at his best at home, where the Chargers are 29-22 ATS under his leadership, 2-1 ATS as dogs.
This is the type of situation that the Chargers thrive in, at home in December. Given Rivers’ amazing record from week 14 on, I’m taking the Chargers pretty heavily this week as dogs in December, at home, where they play their best football. The spread is 1.5, but I’m of taking +1.5 (+100), I’m putting 5 on the money line (+115). 1 point games are rare.
Pittsburgh Steelers 17 San Francisco 49ers 10 Upset Pick (+145)
Pick against spread: Pittsburgh +3 (-105) 5 units
Unlike most MNF games this season, this one is actually between a good team and a good team, as it should be. Both teams sit at 10-3, though the 49ers haven’t been playing like a 10-3 team of late. They lost in Arizona last weekend and in Baltimore the week before in a pitiful effort. The Baltimore loss was to be expected as Baltimore is a very good team and the 49ers had to travel 3 time zones on a short rest week to play them, which is almost unfair.
However, the 49ers really haven’t beaten anyone that is that great. They beat Detroit who is 9-5, but only 4-5 since that loss with close wins over inferior opponents in the Vikings and Raiders in the past two weeks. They beat Cincinnati week 3, but Cincinnati has struggled on late and is now only 8-6. Philadelphia seemed like a great win at the time, but they almost lost that game and the Eagles are just 6-8, at one point 4-8. Tampa Bay was 3-1 coming into San Francisco, but has gone just 1-7 since leaving. New York was 6-2 at the time, but now they sit at 7-7. The Ravens are the only good team they’ve played, the only team on the Steelers level that they’ve played, but I don’t know how much we can learn from that game because of the conditions San Francisco was under that week.
Now that might sound like I’m not sure about this game. That’s not true, in fact, far from it. San Francisco doesn’t match up well with teams in Baltimore and Pittsburgh because they can stop the run. None of the team they’ve beaten have had a good run defense, except Cincinnati and that game was a while ago in an ugly, low scoring affair. Pittsburgh can stop San Francisco’s run, maybe not as well as Baltimore did, but Pittsburgh also has the better quarterback.
Speaking of that quarterback, Ben Roethlisberger is 15-9 ATS as an underdog in his career. He also got his foot ripped off against Cleveland last week, but he’s had plenty of time to heal as that was a Thursday Night game and this is a Monday Night game. Big Ben is one of the toughest quarterbacks in the league and even stayed in the game and played well last week. With the extra time off, he should be good to go this week and he always seems to play his best when he’s hurt and people are doubting him.
Staying with Pittsburgh’s last game being on Thursday, that helps them. Teams are 43-30 ATS off of Thursday Night Football since 2008, 40-25 ATS if you exclude teams coming off that week 1 Thursday Night game, after which teams tend to be hung over. When San Francisco went to Baltimore, I put 3 units on Baltimore as favorites because I really didn’t like the matchup for the Niners as Alex Smith would have to do more than usual. I’m putting 5 here because of Big Ben’s history as underdogs, and playing hurt, and because the 49ers lost in Baltimore, proving that this will not be a good matchup for them, and also because San Francisco lost in Arizona last week. I just don’t know how good of a team this really is, despite their record. Even if San Francisco wins, I think it’ll be by a field goal.
LV Hilton: San Diego +2.5, Pittsburgh +3, Seattle +3.5, Denver +6.5, Green Bay -14
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