Last week overall: 10-6

Last week ATS: 8-7-1 (-590/-4 units)

Overall picks: 145-79 (.647)

Upset Picks: 3-2 (+475/+3 units)

ATS Picks: 96-120-8 (-10375/-77 units)

Survivor picks: 11-4 (NE, PIT, BAL, GB, NYG, PHI, NO, SF, DAL, SD, ATL, NYJ, DEN, TB, TEN)

Upset picks: 24-26 (+3095/+9 units) 

2010 Total: +6408

2010/2011 Total: -872

Overrated

The Bengals are 2-4 SU in their last 5, with one win coming by 3 in comeback fashion against the lowly Browns in Cincinnati and the other coming by 7 to lowly St. Louis. They’re 1-5 ATS, since losing Leon Hall, their best defensive player, with one ATS win coming by .5 points.

The Cowboys are 2-6 ATS in their last 7, and have struggled to beat both Miami and Washington, and lost to Arizona. Their two ATS wins were against Tampa Bay and Buffalo, who are on a combined 15 game losing streak. They also do this every December.

The Lions are 2-6-1 ATS, 4-5 SU, in their last 9 and needed big comebacks to beat the Cowboys and Vikings even when they were playing well.

The Buccaneers have lost 8 straight and are 1-7 ATS in that stretch, including ugly losses to Jacksonville, Carolina, and Dallas in the past three weeks. They’re very banged up and lead the league in turnovers.

Underrated

The Cardinals are 6-2 SU in their last 7, 7-1 ATS.

The Falcons are 7-3 SU in their last 10, with losses to New Orleans (10-3), Green Bay (13-0), and Houston (10-3).

Before losing to a very good New England team, the Broncos had won 6 straight, 5 of which were as underdogs, and were 6-2 ATS since Tebow took over, 6-1 ATS as dogs or favorites of less than 3.

The Vikings have only lost by more than 10 twice this season, despite their 2-12 record, and one of those instances was against Green Bay. They’ve also only lost by 6+ 5 times (Green Bay, Atlanta, Chicago, New Orleans, San Diego).

The Eagles have won 2 straight in impressive fashion and finally look like the team they were supposed to be week 1.

The Chargers have won 3 in a row and are now a whopping 21-1 SU during weeks 14-17 with Philip Rivers.

The Seahawks are 6-1 SU in their last 6 and would be 7-0 if not for a late loss against Washington. They’re also 9-2-1 ATS in their last 11.

Houston Texans 23 Indianapolis Colts 10 Survivor Pick 11-4 (NE, PIT, BAL, GB, NYG, PHI, NO, SF, DAL, SD, ATL, NYJ, DEN, TB, TEN)

Pick against spread: Houston -5.5 (-110) 2 units (-220)

The Colts won a game. The Texans actually lose last week after winning and covering in their last 7 straight. Now the Colts are actually 3-0 ATS under Dan Orlovsky, though two of those were against gigantic spreads. They won last week as dogs at home of under 7, but I think that win, along with the Texans’ loss, has skewed this line. Tennessee was -6.5 in Indianapolis last week. Now Houston is -5.5 even though they are superior to Tennessee.

Thursday home teams are 12-6 ATS since 2010, but I don’t think the Colts have much chance here. Gary Kubiak is 4-2 ATS as a favorite after losing as a favorite. They should be back on the right page this week after what could have easily been a letdown game after making the playoffs for the first time in franchise history the week prior.

Baltimore Ravens 27 Cleveland Browns 10

Pick against spread: Baltimore -13.5 (+100) 2 units (-200)

The Ravens lost last week in San Diego to push their ATS record this season to 2-5 ATS against sub .500 teams. They’ve also lost to Tennessee, Jacksonville, Seattle, and barely beat Arizona at home. However, they beat the Browns pretty easily a few weeks ago, winning 24-10 in Cleveland, one of their two ATS wins against sub .500 teams this year (St. Louis, more on that game later). If they can win by that score in Cleveland, I think they can have a similar result here in Baltimore. Unlike non-divisional games against crappy teams, the Ravens actually seem to get up for these. They’re 4-0 ATS in the division overall this season.

Also, as inconsistent as the Ravens have been, they haven’t been bad in back to back weeks this season, with the exception of the Arizona game after the Jacksonville loss. Joe Flacco hasn’t had many back to back good games, but he hasn’t had many back to back bad games either and John Harbaugh is normally good at motivating his team after a loss as favorites, 5-2 ATS, including that previously mentioned St. Louis loss. I doubt they’ll be flat in back to back weeks against crappy teams, especially since this is a divisional matchup and there are playoff implications here. Also, Cleveland could be flat off of a loss in Arizona last week in overtime. Teams off a road OT loss are 8-20 ATS since 2008.

Denver Broncos 16 Buffalo Bills 10

Pick against spread: Denver -2.5 (-110) 4 units (-440)

All Tim Tebow does is win? Well, maybe we should amend that phrase. All Tim Tebow does is win…unless he plays Tom Brady because all Tom Brady does is win. In all seriousness, the Broncos aren’t a top tier team yet. They’re likely not going to beat teams like the Patriots, Saints, Packers, etc, and there isn’t a ton of shame in that. Not a lot of teams can.

However, the Broncos have no problems winning against lesser teams. With the exception of last week, Tebow is 6-1 ATS as a dog or favorites of 3 or less, with 3 or less being meaningful because they play so many close games. I expect a bounce back game here for Tebow and company. The last time Tebow lost, the Broncos scored their highest points total of the season (38) and their biggest win of the season (14) as 9 point dogs in Oakland. He’s a huge competitor and like the great ones, a loss will only motivate him more. I have no problem taking him here against a terrible Buffalo team that hasn’t won in forever (7 straight losses) as favorites of 3 or less, even on the road.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 Carolina Panthers 24 Upset Pick (+315)

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +7.5 (-110) 5 units (-550)

Just a few weeks ago, the Panthers won in Tampa Bay as 3 point dogs and that was without Josh Freeman. These two teams were even in the eyes on Vegas a couple weeks ago and that was not including Freeman’s injury. Now Vegas says Carolina is 4.5 points better. I guess that’s what happens when you lose by 19 to Carolina, 27 to Jacksonville, and 16 to Dallas.

However, there are angles that favor Tampa Bay in this one, really strong ones too. Carolina isn’t good enough to be laying 7.5 points over anyone. Their defense is awful and no lead is too big for them to lead as we’ve seen against Atlanta and Detroit. They had trouble beating teams like Indianapolis and Jacksonville and are only 5-9. Even if they win this one, they’ll finish at best 6-10 unless they somehow win in New Orleans next week, highly unlikely. Teams that win 6 or less are 22-61 ATS as favorites of 6+ since 2002.

Tampa Bay hasn’t shown a lot of effort of late, but this game is a divisional game and a revenge game for them. Divisional dogs are 28-16 ATS since 2008 trying to avenge a loss as divisional favorites. Besides, this is a bad spot for Carolina as they could be caught looking forward to New Orleans next week. Divisional favorites before being divisional dogs are 6-24 ATS since 2008, 3-11 ATS after being a dog, 12-32 ATS after being a dog since 2002, 7-12 ATS after winning as a dog.

 

Arizona Cardinals 23 Cincinnati Bengals 17 Upset Pick (+175)

Pick against spread: Arizona +4 (-110) 4 units (-440)

The Bengals haven’t been the same since losing Leon Hall 6 games ago. They’re 1-5 ATS in their last 6 with their one ATS win coming last week by .5 (20-13 as 6.5 favorites in St. Louis). They barely beat St. Louis. That should tell you a lot about this team. They also needed a comeback to beat Cleveland, their other SU win in their last 6. Now they’re in a bad spot with a huge game against Baltimore next week and they might look past Arizona. Favorites before being divisional dogs are 53-75 ATS since 2008.

Meanwhile, Arizona is trending in the other direction. They’re 6-1 ATS in their last 7 instances as underdogs, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 overall and that includes a game last week in which they failed to cover, but still won. They’re playing good defense and good football in general, no matter who their quarterback is, though, for what it’s worth, they’ve been better on John Skelton, who will get the start this week as well. I suspect the Cardinals could shut down Kevin Kolb for the season with “injury problems” in an effort to better assess Skelton as a potential franchise quarterback.

If Cincinnati wins this one, I think it’ll be a close one, like by a field goal or maybe 4 points. As long as we’re getting 4 with Arizona, I love this pick. The Bengals haven’t done well as home favorites since 2007, 5-13 ATS, 2-8 ATS as favorites of 2-8 ATS. Even this season, when they’ve played better football, they’re still just 1-3 ATS as home favorites.

Oakland Raiders 21 Kansas City Chiefs 10 Upset Pick (+100) 4 units (+400)

Pick against spread: Oakland +1 (-110) 0 units

This is a divisional rematch of a weird 28-0 Kansas City win in Oakland earlier this season. However, that game was started by Kyle Boller, who threw 3 picks and then finished by Carson Palmer, who didn’t know the playbook yet and threw another 3 picks. So obviously the Chiefs won that one. However, the Chiefs aren’t a good team. I know they somehow beat Kansas City, but they aren’t a good team. Kyle Orton wasn’t the reason they won last week. It was this defense and their defense has been extremely inconsistent. Hell, 2 weeks ago they surrendered 37 points to the Jets. I don’t buy the Chiefs being any kind of favorites against Oakland, even in Kansas City.

Oakland is going to want revenge for that loss earlier this season to Kansas City. Divisional dogs are 28-16 ATS since 2008 trying to avenge a loss as divisional favorites. This is also a bad spot for Kansas City as they head to Denver next week. Divisional favorites before being divisional dogs are 6-24 ATS since 2008, 3-11 ATS after being a dog, 12-32 ATS after being a dog since 2002, 7-12 ATS after winning as a dog.

Finally, a fun fact, the road team has won 9 of the last 10 meetings in this matchup. The Chiefs don’t deserve to be favorites here and Oakland should win actually pretty easily. I was going to put 3 units on the spread and one on the money line like I do with all upsets, but one point games are so rare that I’m taking my chances with the better juice and the money line. Of course I did that last week with the Raiders as 1 point dogs and Detroit won by 1, losing me 300 that could have pushed. Fuck.

New England Patriots 34 Miami Dolphins 20

Pick against spread: New England -9.5 (-110) 1 unit (-110)

The Dolphins are a weird team. Since 2008, they’re 21-10 ATS on the road and 10-22 ATS at home. It’s like reverse home field advantage. However, I feel like this line already takes that into account with this game being in New England. Either that or Vegas really thinks New England is just 6.5 points better than Miami.

Given that I think this line is a bit ridiculous, I’m taking New England. Tom Brady is a machine and this offense will score 30+ and probably a good amount more again. Even with a big line, I don’t trust the Dolphins to keep pace and cover, as good as they have been on the road. Both of these teams won last week despite allowing 21+ points, a situation teams are 150-104 ATS after a win in since 2008, but New England has the edge because favorites after that are 97-61 ATS, as opposed to 53-43 ATS for dogs. I don’t have any big trends for New England other than that one and I am afraid this could be a bit of a trap line given how bad New England’s defense is, which is why this is just a 1 unit bet, but I like New England.

 

New York Jets 24 New York Giants 17

Pick against spread: NY Jets -3 (+100) 2 units (-200)

I say this every week. The Giants do this every year. Under Tom Coughlin, they are Giants are 25-37 SU in the 2^nd half as opposed to 47-17 SU in the 1^st half. No one should be that surprised that they lost to the Redskins last week. This season, they are 1-5 SU since starting 6-2, with that one win coming by just 3 points against Dallas, who is also overrated, having gone 2-6 ATS in their last 8 with two covers coming against Buffalo and Tampa Bay. Given that, I predict the slide to continue for the Giants against the Jets here. The Jets looked worse than they were last week against an underrated Philadelphia team who is finally playing good football.

Pittsburgh Steelers 16 St. Louis Rams 9

Pick against spread: St. Louis +12.5 (-110) 3 units (-330)

Charlie Batch is going to be starting for Ben Roethlisberger in this one. The Steelers’ offense wasn’t even that great to begin with. They may have trouble scoring 13 points total (17 total in their last 2 weeks), even against a defense as bad as the Rams’. I don’t love the Rams, especially with Kellen Clemens at quarterback, but I’m not taking the Steelers as 12.5 point favorites.

In his career, Big Ben is 4-10 ATS as non-divisional favorites of 10+ and you can imagine they’d only be worse with Charlie Batch. This season, the Steelers beat the Colts 23-20, the Jaguars 17-13, the Chiefs 13-9, and the Browns 14-3, hardly dominating performances and with the exception of the 2^nd half of the Cleveland game, Ben was relatively healthy in those games.

Now he’s not even playing and the Steelers are also coming off a 17+ point loss on MNF, a situation teams are 20-37 ATS in since 2002. The only reason this isn’t a bigger bet is because St. Louis is awful and the Steelers actually have a good ATS record since 2004 without Big Ben, 8-5 ATS, 4-1 ATS in their last 5, but they’ve never been double digit favorites in that time.

Tennessee Titans 17 Jacksonville Jaguars 13

Pick against spread: Jacksonville +7.5 (-120) 3 units (+300)

The Titans have been overrated all season. The Colts just helped expose it last week. That was awful. With the exception of Baltimore and Denver, they haven’t beaten any .500 teams this season. Seattle and Jacksonville also beat Baltimore, so that doesn’t count. Meanwhile, when they played the Broncos, Tebow was still on the bench in favor of Kyle Orton. They have 5 losses to .500+ teams, Houston, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Atlanta, and New Orleans, by a combined score of 148-75. They’ve also lost to Jacksonville and Indianapolis.

On top of this, they struggled to beat Tampa Bay and Buffalo, beating both by 23-17 and those teams suck. Now they’ve supposed to beat the Jaguars by more than 7? Jacksonville isn’t great, but Tennessee doesn’t deserve to be favored by this much over anyone after last week, especially not Jacksonville, who always plays divisional opponents hard and beat them week 1.

Jacksonville also has trends on their side. Divisional favorites before being divisional dogs are 6-24 ATS since 2008, 1-12 ATS after a loss. Tennessee goes to Houston next week. On the flip side, divisional dogs before being divisional favorites are 24-12 ATS since 2008. Jacksonville is home for Indianapolis next week. Finally, Jacksonville is better rested. Excluding teams coming off the opening week Thursday Night game (an emotional game, after which teams tend to be flat), teams coming off a Thursday Night game are 40-26 ATS since 2008.

Minnesota Vikings 24 Washington Redskins 21 Upset Pick (+245)

Pick against spread: Minnesota +6.5 (-110) 5 units (+500)

Like I mentioned under Carolina, Washington just doesn’t deserve to be favored by more than 6 points. Washington is 5-9 and needs to win out against Minnesota and Philadelphia to get more than 6 wins, which is unlikely. Teams that win 6 or less are 22-61 ATS as favorites of 6+. Washington just isn’t good enough to deserve to be favored by this much.

On top of that, Minnesota may have 12 losses, but only 4 by a touchdown or more (Atlanta, Chicago before the Cutler/Forte injuries, Green Bay, New Orleans). That’s a great group of team, much better than Washington. As for losses by 6 or more, all you need to do is add San Diego week 1 into the mix. Minnesota plays a lot of close games hanging within 6 of much better teams than Washington (Detroit twice, Green Bay once, Denver, Oakland, etc.).

This is also a bad situation for Washington, who could be more focused on Philadelphia next week. Favorites before being divisional dogs are 53-75 ATS since 2008. They were also dogs last week against New York. Favorites before and after being dogs are 72-103 ATS since 2008. Besides, the Redskins are an inconsistent team. They rarely are good two weeks in a row as in that sense, their win last week against New York could hurt them.

San Diego Chargers 35 Detroit Lions 27 Upset Pick (+120) 5 units (-500)

Pick against spread: San Diego +1.5 (+105) 0 units

Maybe Norv Turner should try to convince Philip Rivers it’s always December. This is insane. Dead in the water at 4-7 3 weeks ago, Rivers and company turned it on in December again, winning 3 straight by a combined score of 109-38, including a 34-14 win over Baltimore on last Sunday night. Philip Rivers is now 21-1 SU after week 14 (not including playoffs), 16-6 ATS and 4-0 ATS as dogs. The Chargers are dogs here again, so obviously I love San Diego this week.

Meanwhile, the Lions are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9, since starting 5-0. Even with they started 5-0, they needed comebacks to beat Dallas and Minnesota. Recently, they’ve needed comebacks to beat Oakland and Carolina. They could also be caught looking forward to Green Bay next week. Favorites before being divisional dogs are 53-75 ATS since 2008. On top of that, teams are 3-11 ATS before playing the Packers this season.

One trend works for Detroit. Teams are 150-104 ATS after a win in which they allowed 21+ points, 97-61 ATS as favorites, a situation Detroit is in, but I still love getting Philip Rivers as dogs in December against a team that has done been covering well of late. I’m putting 5 on the money line, rather than 4 on the spread and one on the money line because of how rare 1 point games are.

 

Philadelphia Eagles 34 Dallas Cowboys 20 Upset Pick (+110) 4 units (+440)

Pick against spread: Philadelphia +1.5 (-110) 0 units

Dallas may have won 31-15 last week, but that has more to do with how crappy Tampa Bay is than anything to do with Dallas. Dallas is still 2-6 ATS in their last 8, including last week, with those two covers coming against Buffalo and Tampa Bay, who have lost a combined 15 games in a row. They barely beat Miami and Washington and lost to Arizona and an overrated New York team. On top of this, they always seem to get worse in December. Tony Romo is 10-17 ATS from week 13 on, 7-14 ATS as favorites.

Meanwhile, the Eagles have improbably put themselves back into the playoff race. They’re playing their best football in December again, winning their last 2 by a combined score of 71-29 against Miami and New York after bottoming out on Thursday Night Football against Seattle a few weeks ago. Michael Vick and Jeremy Maclin are back and the defense is playing better. Andy Reid seems to really want to remain head coach. If the Jets beat the Giants and the Giants beat the Cowboys next week, the Eagles are in the playoffs if they win here against Dallas and next week against Washington. They’re playing much better football than Dallas is now.

The situations also say Dallas. Divisional favorites before being divisional dogs are 6-24 ATS since 2008. Dallas has to go to New York next week and could be caught looking forward to a “better” divisional rival. Meanwhile, divisional dogs before being divisional favorites are 24-12 ATS since 2008. Philadelphia hosts Washington next weekend. Again, I’m putting all 4 units on the money line instead of splitting them up because of the rarity of 1 point games.

Seattle Seahawks 17 San Francisco 49ers 13 Upset Pick (+115) 3 units (-300)

Pick against spread: Seattle +1.5 (-105) 0 units

The 49ers finally got their win over an elite team, winning 20-3 on MNF last week. Granted, Ben Roethlisberger was playing with one leg, but don’t try to tell them that. That game was huge for them. They could predictably be a little flat this week for Seattle, especially with a playoff spot secured. A trend that really works against them, teams are 17-37 ATS after beating the Steelers since 2002, so the 49ers could be extra flat.

Meanwhile, the Seahawks are the best ATS team over their last 12 games in the league, with a 9-2-1 ATS record. Now they’re at home, where they are even better. Since 2007, they’re 27-14 ATS at home, as opposed to 14-26 ATS on the road. On top of that, in NFC West divisional games, the home team covers 2/3 of the time, 22-11 ATS since 2009. I excluded the 2011 49ers previously because they were good, but I added them in there for this week because they did lose in Arizona. If they can lose in Arizona, they can lose in Seattle. Again, I’m putting all 3 units on the money line instead of splitting them up because of the rarity of 1 point games.

Green Bay Packers 23 Chicago Bears 13

Pick against spread: Chicago +13 (-115) 1 unit

There was some speculation that Jay Cutler could return for this game, but he will not. Instead, it’ll be Josh McCown making his first start since 2007, rather than Caleb Hanie, who had thrown a whopping 9 interceptions to 3 picks in 4 starts since taking over for an injured Cutler. To put McCown in perspective, the last time he made a start, he was benched afterwards for JaMarcus Russell, who was a rookie at the time. McCown can’t really be worse, but he’s probably not going to be much better and his first test is the defending Super Bowl Champion Packers at home.

Still, that being said, I’m taking the Packers here for a unit. The Packers simply don’t have anything to play for. In fact, if the 49ers lose, the Packers will have home field wrapped up with a win here. Their perfect season hopes are gone, so there’s no question they would rest their starters some if they had everything wrapped up and even if they don’t, they could still be really flat here. Teams are 0-4 ATS after losing their first game after starting 12-0 or better. This makes sense. With perfection gone, there’s not a whole lot left to play for, especially with a #1 seed all but wrapped up. That’s the situation the Packers are in here.

Meanwhile, this could essentially be Chicago’s Super Bowl, as they’re all but eliminated from the playoffs thanks to injuries. They’d love to be able to beat the defending Super Bowl Champion Packers and love the opportunity to kick them when they’re down. However, this is still just a 1 unit bet, because I hate betting against Aaron Rodgers, especially in favor of Josh McCown, making his first start since 2007.

New Orleans Saints 31 Atlanta Falcons 28

Pick against spread: Atlanta +6.5 (-110) 3 units

Normally the book on New Orleans and Atlanta is to bet on them at home, but against them on the road. That doesn’t seem to happen when they play each other, probably because both have domes. The last 4 matchups have been won by the road team. I’m actually not picking Atlanta straight up because I really think New Orleans is a much better team, especially at home, but I am taking Atlanta ATS because those last 4 games have actually been decided by a field goal. That’s crazy. In fact, of the last 6, 5 have been decided by 4 or less and the other one was by 8.

Atlanta also has a trend on their side as they try to avenge a divisional overtime loss, which they suffered earlier this season. Teams in that situation are 13-5 ATS since 2008. I don’t like Atlanta’s chances to win that much, though they could, but I would be really surprised if this game were decided by more than a touchdown, based on the rivalry history and the one trend that does apply to this game. 

LV Hilton: Minnesota +6.5, Tampa Bay +7.5, San Diego +2.5,  Denver -2.5, St. Louis +14 (31-38-1)