Last week overall: 9-7
Last week ATS: 4-12 (-2135/-19 units)
Overall picks: 154-86 (.642)
Upset Picks: 3-4 (+85/-1 unit)
ATS Picks: 100-132-8 (-12510/-96 units)
Survivor picks: 11-5 (NE, PIT, BAL, GB, NYG, PHI, NO, SF, DAL, SD, ATL, NYJ, DEN, TB, TEN, HOU)
Upset picks: 27-30 (+3180/+8 units)
2010 Total: +6408
2010/2011 Total: -2922
Green Bay Packers 24 Detroit Lions 23 Upset Pick (+160)
Pick against spread: Green Bay +3 (+105) 2 units (+210)
Aaron Rodgers and company are only expected to play about a quarter is this one. The Packers have locked up home field throughout the NFC with their win last week. Meanwhile, the Lions are going to play hard all game in an attempt to secure the NFC’s 5th seed. If they lose, then they need Atlanta to lose at home to crappy Tampa Bay to get the #5 seed and if they get stuck with the 6 seed, they have to go to New Orleans in the first round rather than Dallas/New York.
However, we’re getting 3 points with the Packers at home. I have to take that. Even if the starters only play 1 quarter, the Packers could already be up 7-0 or 10-3. Besides, Matt Flynn is not a bad backup quarterback at all. He went 24 of 37 for 251 yards, 3 touchdowns, and a pick last year against New England. He’s a free agent after the season so this is his showcase to show he can start in this league. The Packers won’t be completely doomed without Rodgers and the rest of the starters, especially if they give Flynn a 7 point lead to start. Even if they lose, I can see them keeping it within 3.
Tennessee Titans 23 Houston Texans 17
Pick against spread: Tennessee Titans -3 (+105) 1 unit (-100)
The Texans don’t need to try in this one. They’re stuck in the #3 seed no matter what, but it doesn’t appear they’ll rest their starters. They don’t want to go into the playoffs with a 3 game losing streak to teams with worse records than them and TJ Yates needs all the reps he can get. In fact, the Texans are even likely bringing back Andre Johnson from injury to play in this one.
However, I still really feel they’ll treat this as a scrimmage, basically a preseason game. The Titans could easily be their first round opponent and they don’t want to give away too much of their game plan and playbook so expect the Texans to come out with a very vanilla game plan. In 2009, the Cardinals and Packers met week 17 knowing there was a good chance they would meet again in the first round of the playoffs. The Cardinals showed none of their hand week 17 and got their ass kicked 33-7, but eventually got the last word in the playoffs where they had an advantage.
For the Titans, this is a must win, so obviously they’ll try very hard. They’ll also play very hard to avenge their embarrassing 41-7 loss to Houston earlier this season. Favorites trying to avenge a 21+ point loss as favorites are 23-8 ATS since 2002, 11-4 ATS trying to avenge a divisional 21+ point loss. I don’t know if I agree with the Titans being 3 point road favorites here, but I think they’re the right side. They aren’t the best team, but the Texans aren’t very good either. They haven’t scored more than 20 since Matt Schaub got hurt.
Fun fact, the Titans’ last 3 wins have had the score 23-17. They also lost to Atlanta week 11 23-17, which means that 4 of their last 6 games and all 3 of their last 3 wins had the score 23-17. On top of that, their loss to New Orleans was 22-17.
Indianapolis Colts 20 Jacksonville Jaguars 13 Upset Pick (+170)
Pick against spread: Indianapolis +3.5 (-115) 3 units (-345)
All the Colts need to do is lose here and they can draft Andrew Luck if they so choose. They’ll obviously lay down and die right? Not necessarily. They’ve won 2 in a row and didn’t look like they wanted to lay down and die when they led a game winning drive against Houston last week. They’ve been playing much better football of late. Dan Orlovsky is 4-0 ATS since taking over as the starting quarterback.
Besides, while it is possible Jim Irsay will tell his team to lay down and die, it’s also possible he secretly wants his team NOT to get the #1 pick so he doesn’t have the deal with the Luck/Manning dilemma and can just take Matt Kalil at #2. It’s also possible that the Jaguars lay down and die so the Colts DON’T get Andrew Luck. It might not be a coincidence that the Colts’ last 2 wins were both divisional wins. Their divisional rivals can’t want this kid in the division.
The Jaguars beat the Colts 17-3 in Indianapolis earlier this season, but the way the Colts have been better of late. They are better than the Jaguars, who can only score 17+ points against Tampa Bay’s terrible defense when their own defense forces 7 turnovers. This line says the Jags are a little better than the Colts which I don’t agree with. I wouldn’t take Jacksonville as more than 3 more favorites over anyone right now. In fact, as 3+ home favorites, they’re an embarrassing 2-9 ATS since 2008. They’re also 3-11 ATS after a divisional loss since 2007 and they lost to Tennessee last weekend, who, by the way, the Colts beat the week before.
Finally, the Colts are on extra rest here. Excluding teams coming off the week 1 Thursday night game, after which teams tend to be flat, teams are 41-27 ATS after a Thursday game since 2008. I believe the Colts can go into Jacksonville and win and even if they don’t, they can definitely keep this within a field goal of the offensively challenged Jaguars. Their great pass rushers will wreak havoc and force a skittish Blaine Gabbert into some bad throws. I like getting more than 3 with the Colts here for a medium sized bet.
New York Jets 24 Miami Dolphins 17 Upset Pick (+150)
Pick against spread: NY Jets +3 (-105) 3 units (+300)
This line suggests that the Jets and Dolphins are essentially equals. I disagree with that. They are playing better football under Matt Moore, but remember, Matt Moore still has yet to beat anyone who is any good. In fact, he struggled mightily against these same Jets earlier this season going 16 of 34 for 204 yards and 2 picks. The Jets have one of the better defenses in the league and a confusing scheme so it’s very possible he struggles once again. To make matters worse, Matt Moore won’t have talented blindside protector Jake Long in this one either as he’s done for the season with injury. Reggie Bush is also going to miss this game, right when he was breaking out as a legitimate feature back.
The Dolphins did almost beat the Patriots last week in New England, but I could see how that could actually hurt them this week. They could be very flat after leading by 17 over the Patriots and failing to put them away, losing 27-24. Since 2002, they’re 3-8 ATS after losing to the Patriots and last week’s loss was especially heartbreaking for them.
Besides, last week was on the road and for some reason they are better on the road than at home. Since 2008, they are 22-10 ATS on the road and 10-22 ATS at home. Their home struggles are more in depth than that. As favorites, they are 6-14 ATS since 2008, as opposed to 23-17 ATS as dogs. Dolphins are 5-11 ATS as home favorites since 2008. One trend for the Dolphins is that divisional favorites trying to avenge a loss as divisional dogs are 34-23 ATS since 2008. But, I like the Jets here for a solid sized bet.
Minnesota Vikings 17 Chicago Bears 13
Pick against spread: Minnesota -1 (-115) 1 unit (-115)
There are conflicting trends here. On one hand, the Vikings will want revenge for the Bears 39-10 destruction of them earlier this season. Divisional favorites trying to avenge a loss as divisional dogs are 34-23 ATS since 2008. Divisional favorites trying to avenge a 21+ point loss are 29-14 ATS since 2002. They’ll definitely be motivated.
On the other hand, the Bears are in a good situation in their 2nd of 2 on the road, a situation teams are 168-125 ATS in since 2008. Teams in that situation off a loss are 88-65 ATS since 2008 and teams in that situation off a loss in their 2nd of 2 as road dogs are 55-37 ATS since 2008 as the trends say this game is a relative toss up.
I’m going with the Vikings here for just a unit because I think this line is a little off. I’d say these teams are about equal now. The Bears have no offensive playmakers and are down to their 3rd string quarterback and running back and also missing one of their best receivers, Johnny Knox. The Vikings may be missing Adrian Peterson, but I think they still have enough to win a low scoring game against a Chicago team on a 5 game losing streak who could be flat after a loss to divisional rival Green Bay.
New England Patriots 38 Buffalo Bills 17
Pick against spread: New England -10 (-110) 3 units (+300)
Over/Under: Over 51 1 unit (Patriots 10-5, Bills 9-6) (+100)
The Patriots barely beat the Dolphins last week and now they are 10 point favorites to the Bills. They have no defense and the public seems to have caught on as the Bills are actually public underdogs this week. As I’ve mentioned before, I love betting against public underdogs, but that’s not the only reason I love the Patriots in this situation.
The Patriots barely escaped last week with a win and I expect them to play their hearts out this week to compensate. A few weeks ago, Washington almost beat them and the Patriots came out the next week and thrashed the Broncos. Besides, this is a revenge game for Bill Belichick. Bill Belichick is 42-24 ATS against teams he previously lost to, 25-11 ATS against teams he previously lost to as a favorite since 2000.
Not only is this a revenge game, but this is a divisional revenge game. Bill Belichick is 19-6 ATS against divisional teams he previously lost to, 12-2 ATS against divisional teams he previously lost to as a favorite since 2000. The fact that this is a huge line shouldn’t scare you off too much. BB is 6-3 ATS as 7+ favorites against teams he previously lost to as a favorite since 2000, 5-0 ATS as 7+ favorites against divisional teams he previously lost to as a favorite since 2000. Finally, teams are 41-27 ATS trying to avenge a divisional loss of 3 or fewer.
One more trend for the Patriots, teams coming off a win in which they allowed 21+ points are 152-103 ATS since 2008, 98-62 ATS as favorites. Teams may be 29-43 ATS off a close divisional win (3 or fewer points) are since 2008, 11-27 ATS as favorites, but the Patriots are actually 4-1 ATS in this situation under Bill Belichick. However, this will not be a huge bet because I don’t trust New England’s defense enough to heavily bet on them as double digit favorites.
New Orleans Saints 34 Carolina Panthers 31
Pick against spread: Carolina +9 (-125) 3 units (-375)
The Saints are coming off a huge win on MNF. Normally, I would bet on them in this situation because of the powerful trend associated with teams coming off MNF wins of 21+. Teams in that situation are 26-11 ATS since 2002. However, there’s a very good chance the Saints’ starters don’t play the whole game.
Drew Brees has already broken his record and if the 49ers beat the Rams, the Saints are stuck in the #3 seed no matter what. The Saints/Panthers and the 49ers/Rams games happen concurrently, but we saw this last year. The Saints pulled their starters at halftime of their week 17 game against Tampa Bay (an eventual loss) because Atlanta was killing Carolina, making New Orleans’ game meaningless. The Rams are so bad that the 49ers could be up big at halftime and if they are, expect the Saints to rest starters week 17 for the 3rd straight year. Given that, I can’t bet on the Saints as large favorites here.
Besides, the Saints struggle as large favorites normally. They are 5-11 ATS since 2006 as favorites of 9+ (4-10 ATS as favorites of 10+). You might think that has changed since they’ve gotten better, but since their Super Bowl winning season in 2009, they’re still only 5-9 ATS as favorites of 9+ (4-9 ATS as 10+ favorites. Besides, Cam Newton is the type of quarterback who can get a late backdoor cover with ease. And the Panthers have already almost beaten the Saints this year, losing by 3 to them earlier. They proved they can hang with them and teams trying to avenge a divisional loss of 3 or less are 41-27 ATS since 2008, 23-11 ATS as dogs.
Philadelphia Eagles 27 Washington Redskins 21
Pick against spread: Washington +9 (-125) 1 unit (-125)
The Eagles looked done at 4-8 after a loss to Seattle and it seemed like a foregone conclusion that Andy Reid would get fired. Well, 3 weeks later, they are officially done, but they sit at 7-8 and are finally playing like the team we thought they could be at the beginning of the season and can get to .500 with a win here. Also, Andy Reid’s job is looking much, much safer.
However, it’s tough to tell how they’ll come out in this one. They got eliminated last weekend so they could be flat, but at the same time they’ve played some of their best football in games when the pressure has been off and it’s certainly off now. There are no major trends here, but the tiebreaker here for me is how much the Eagles have struggled as large favorites this season. They haven’t covered a line higher than 5 all season, going 0-4 ATS in such games. Washington has the type of offense that can get a backdoor cover as well.
San Francisco 49ers 20 St. Louis Rams 3
Pick against spread: San Francisco -10.5 (-110) 2 units (-220)
Over/Under: Under 35.5 1 unit (49ers 6-9, Rams 4-9-2) (-110)
Normally I hate betting on double digit road favorites. Teams are just 0-6 ATS in this situation this year. There’s also a tough trend working against San Francisco, coming off a close 2 point win over Seattle last weekend. Teams coming off a divisional win by 3 or fewer are 29-43 ATS since 2008, 11-27 ATS as favorites.
However, that being said, I can’t bet on St. Louis. They’ve been shut out twice in the last 4 weeks and have scored 26 points total in the last 4 weeks, 13 in their last 3 without Sam Bradford. Their offense was terrible with him, but they’re even worse without him. One of their two recent shutouts was in San Francisco just 4 weeks ago and even though this game is in St. Louis, it’s conceivable they could be shut out or close to shut out again. The 49ers have the league’s best scoring defense so I would find it unlikely that St. Louis gets out of single digits.
There also is a powerful trend working in San Francisco’s favor. Teams are 168-125 ATS in their 2nd straight road game since 2008, 31-17 ATS is their 2nd straight as favorites, 22-11 ATS in their 2nd straight as favorites after a win. This is won’t be a very big bet, but I do like San Francisco in this situation almost solely on St. Louis’ ineptitude.
Atlanta Falcons 34 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17
Pick against spread: Atlanta -11 (-110) 2 units (+200)
Atlanta is in a bad situation coming off a MNF loss of 21+. Teams in this situation are 13-23 ATS since 2002, 6-13 ATS off a divisional loss of 21+. However, Tampa Bay has absolutely quit and things won’t get much better this week with news that their coach is almost definitely getting fired after the season. They’ve surrendered 30+ to 6 of their last 7 opponents so Atlanta can sleepwalk and still probably score 30, even if they are flat off a bad loss and a short week.
Two trends do work in Atlanta’s favor. Teams are 44-31 ATS as favorites trying to avenge a divisional loss as dogs since 2008. Also, teams are 41-27 ATS trying to avenge a divisional loss of 3 or fewer. This won’t be a very big bet, but I love betting against Tampa Bay right now so I’m going with Atlanta for a couple of units.
Baltimore Ravens 23 Cincinnati Bengals 13
Pick against spread: Baltimore -1.5 (-115) 4 units (+400)
The Ravens may seem like a huge enigma and from the outside they may be, but they are in 3 situations this week that they’ve been very good in this season. As underdogs of favorites of less than 5.5 this season, they are 5-1 ATS. They’ve struggled ATS against much inferior opponents, but they’ve played well against good teams. Going off of that, they’re 6-1 ATS against teams with winning records.
They’re also 4-1 ATS in the division. It makes sense that they’d take divisional games more seriously. They need this win to secure a first round bye and the #2 seed so they’ll definitely be motivated, especially with Pittsburgh playing Cleveland and ready to take their #2 seed if they slip. I’m very confident that the Ravens can win here and against a very small line, I really like them this week.
Pittsburgh Steelers 17 Cleveland Browns 13
Pick against spread: Cleveland +7.5 (-125) 3 units (+300)
Ben Roethlisberger is expected to play through an ankle injury, but he could be limited. He played very poorly against San Francisco on MNF a couple weeks ago through an ankle injury as Pittsburgh lost 20-3. Now the Steelers go to Cleveland as 7.5 point favorites after having trouble putting away lesser teams all season.
They only beat Indy (in Indy) by 3, Jacksonville (at home) by 4, Kansas City (in Kansas City) by 4. Even a few weeks ago, they only beat Cleveland by 11 and that was after a late touchdown took it from 7-3 to 14-3. And for the most part, all of that happened when Ben Roethlisberger was healthy. Now he’s not and they’ve actually scored only 17 points in their last 2 games with him hurt combined, including only 14 at home for Cleveland. Now they go to Cleveland.
And if Ben Roethlisberger plays really well, he could be pulled in order to rest him. Charlie Batch is not a bad backup, but he’s not exactly Ben Roethlisberger. He had a solid game last week against St. Louis’ miserable secondary, but Cleveland actually has one of the better pass defenses in the league so if he comes in with a sizeable lead, there’s still a solid chance of a backdoor cover against this 7.5 point line. On top of that, Ben Roethlisberger is just 3-9 ATS in his career of 7+ point road favorites. I really love getting more than a touchdown with Cleveland here.
Arizona Cardinals 24 Seattle Seahawks 17 Survivor Pick 11-5 (NE, PIT, BAL, GB, NYG, PHI, NO, SF, DAL, SD, ATL, NYJ, DEN, TB, TEN, HOU)
Pick against spread: Arizona -2.5 (-105) 2 units (+200)
Both of these teams were eliminated from the playoffs last weekend, several weeks after most projected they would be eliminated. Now they play each other. Both teams could be flat after missing the playoffs last weekend, so really anything could happen, but with NFC West matchups, picking the home team ATS is normally the smart thing to do. NFC West home teams are 22-11 ATS since 2009 in divisional matchups. Adding to that, Seattle is a significantly worse road team (14-26 ATS) than home team (27-14 ATS) since 2007. One additional trend is that Arizona is trying to avenge a divisional loss of 3 or fewer, a situation teams are 41-27 ATS in since 2008, I’m taking Arizona for a couple.
Denver Broncos 16 Kansas City Chiefs 10
Pick against spread: Denver -3 (-125) 2 units (-250)
Tebow was awful last week, but it wasn’t just him. They couldn’t do anything on the ground. His receivers couldn’t catch. His line couldn’t block and his defense couldn’t stop anyone. The game plan was also overly conservative to a fault. This week, they get the Chiefs. Based on what he’s done this season, Tebow shouldn’t have much trouble winning (well, he could have trouble, but he’ll still win). The Chiefs suck and the Broncos have shown the ability to beat bad to average teams in conservative fashion. However, that’s what I said last week.
On top of that, the Broncos defense is banged up. Von Miller was playing like the defensive player of the year before a thumb injury, but he hasn’t been the same since. They’re also missing both of their starting safeties. Also, Kyle Orton plays for the Chiefs, so the Chiefs could have a strategic advantage in that Orton played for Denver just a few weeks ago.
Finally, a trend does work for the Chiefs because teams are 29-16 ATS as dogs trying to avenge a divisional loss as favorites since 2008. The Broncos are also the young team with all the pressure trying to make the playoffs, while the Chiefs have no pressure and have been playing better football under Romeo Crennel. All that said, I’m still taking the Broncos, especially since they did beat Kansas City in Kansas City earlier this season, but it’s not a very big bet.
San Diego Chargers 27 Oakland Raiders 21 Upset Pick (+130)
Pick against spread: San Diego +2.5 (-105) 4 units (+400)
Philip Rivers is 21-2 SU after week 14 (not including playoffs), 16-7 ATS and 4-1 ATS as dogs. The Chargers lost in this situation last week, but I actually still love them in this situation this week. Last week was a tougher game for them because they had to go all the way to Detroit, just like they lost when they went to Cincinnati last year. This week, they just have to go to Oakland and it’s their 2nd straight road game.
Being in the 2nd straight road game is a situation teams are 168-125 ATS in since 2008. Teams in that situation off a loss are 88-65 ATS since 2008 and teams in that situation off a loss in their 2nd of 2 as road dogs are 55-37 ATS since 2008. The Chargers are also in a good situation because teams are 29-16 ATS as dogs trying to avenge a divisional loss as favorites since 2008. Finally, the Chargers have absolutely no pressure, which they love, while the Oakland need to win to make the playoffs.
Dallas Cowboys 31 New York Giants 28 Upset Pick (+150)
Pick against spread: Dallas +3 (-105) 3 units (-315)
These two teams met just a couple weeks ago. Dallas led by 12 late, but two late New York touchdowns, 1 two point conversion, a ball Miles Austin lost in the sun on a wide open touchdown, an iced kicker and a missed field goal later, New York won 37-34. That game was in Dallas and this one is in New York, but I still think Dallas has the advantage this week for several reasons.
For one, the pressure is off Dallas. New York is the home team, the favorite, the one who is supposed to win, while Dallas is the underdog with a quarterback with an injured hand (more on that later). Both of these teams are awful down the stretch. New York is 47-17 SU under Tom Coughlin in the first half of the season and 26-37 SU under Coughlin in the 2nd half of the season. Meanwhile, Dallas is 10-18 ATS from week 13 on, but 3-3 ATS as dogs, as opposed to 7-15 ATS as favorites.
Back to their previous matchup, it really did seem like Dallas outplayed New York. It took a bizarre sequence for New York to come back. Besides, Dallas’ loss to New York could actually help them here. Dogs trying to avenge a divisional loss as favorites are 29-16 ATS since 2008. Teams trying to avenge a divisional loss of 3 or fewer are 41-27 ATS since 2008, 23-11 ATS as dogs.
Finally, onto Romo’s hand. Romo’s hand might be banged up, but it’s not like Eli Manning is playing well either. Since his last matchup with Dallas, Manning is 32 for 67 for 482 yards, 1 touchdown, and 4 interceptions and that includes a 99 yard touchdown by Victor Cruz that Manning barely had a part in. I think his recent struggles cancel out the impact of Romo’s hand injury, which is reportedly not going to be a huge factor. There was never any question whether or not he could play and only sat last week after the hit because the game last week was meaningless if they lost to New York here, which I don’t think they will.
LV Hilton Super Contest: Baltimore -2.5, San Diego +3, New England -11, NY Jets +2, Indianapolis +3.5
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