Last week overall: 11-5

Last week ATS: 8-8 (+465/+7 units)

Overall picks: 165-91 (.645)

Upset Picks: 2-3 (-10/-1 unit)

ATS Picks: 108-140-8 (-12045/-89 units)

Survivor picks: 12-5 (NE, PIT, BAL, GB, NYG, PHI, NO, SF, DAL, SD, ATL, NYJ, DEN, TB, TEN, HOU, ARI)

Upset picks: 29-32 (+3170/+7 units)

Prop Bets: +188 

2010 Total: +6408

2010/2011 Total: -2279

Cincinnati Bengals 24 Houston Texans 20 Upset Pick (+130)

Pick against spread: Cincinnati +3 (-115) 2 units (-230)

Neither of these sides seems particularly good to bet on. On one hand, the Bengals are 2-6 ATS in their last 8, 3-5 SU, with wins over Arizona by 7, St. Louis by 7, and Cleveland by 3. They’re also 1-6 ATS against playoff teams this season, with that one cover coming against the Kyle Orton Broncos and they didn’t even win that one. In fact, they’re 0-7 SU against playoff teams this season (Pittsburgh twice, Baltimore twice, Houston, Denver, and San Francisco). That’s opposed to 9-0 SU against non-playoff teams. But at the same time, Houston has lost 3 straight to non-playoff teams (Carolina, Indianapolis, Tennessee).

Given that, I’m not sure if we can even count the Texans as a playoff team. They’re so banged up, especially offensively with TJ Yates starting in this one as their 3^rd string quarterback and even he is going to be playing through a separated non-throwing shoulder. If anything happens to him, it’s Jake Delhomme for the Texans. As bad as the Texans have been playing, I’m not even sure how much relevance the Bengals’ record against playoff teams is.

What is relevant is that the Texans beat the Bengals in Cincinnati earlier this season, but that was 3 weeks ago and only by 1 point, taking a big, late comeback to do it. There’s also a related trend to that loss. Teams are 57-41 ATS trying to avenge a loss in the playoffs since 2002, 15-9 ATS on the road trying to avenge a home loss.

One similarity between these two teams is that they are starting rookie quarterbacks. Cincinnati is starting Andy Dalton and Houston is starting TJ Yates. Rookie quarterbacks tend to struggle in the playoffs, but I’d trust Dalton more than Yates. Besides, Yates has more pressure on him as home favorites. Quarterbacks starting their first playoff game are 6-19 SU since 2003, but 2-10 ATS as home favorites, as opposed to 5-5 ATS as road dogs. I don’t love Cincinnati, but I think they’re the right side and the better team so I like getting points with the better team.

New Orleans Saints 31 Detroit Lions 27 Lock/Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Detroit +11 (-110) 3 units (-330)

This is another rematch. The Saints beat the Lions a few weeks ago by a score of 31-17 in New Orleans. However, Detroit was missing one of their best defensive players, defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, due to suspension. His return will help the Lions as they try to contain Drew Brees, but they’re still not going to have a lot of success doing so. They also didn’t have Kevin Smith in that one after an early injury and I expect his return to have the bigger impact. The Saints aren’t a great run defense, but the Lions simply didn’t have anyone to take advantage of that last time as Maurice Morris struggled for 28 yards on 12 carries after Smith went down. Now they do. Smith rushed for 34 yards and a score on 6 carries before getting hurt.

There is one trend related to that loss, as teams trying to avenge a 14+ point loss are 20-11 ATS in the playoffs since 2002. Besides, it’s not like the Saints have been good as large favorites under Sean Payton with a 4-10 ATS record in those games, 4-9 ATS since the start of the 2009 season, when they really started playing at an elite level. I still like New Orleans to win, but Detroit is talented enough for a backdoor cover or even a legitimately close game here, especially with the trends on their side.

 

Atlanta Falcons 27 New York Giants 24 Upset Pick (+135)

Pick against spread: Atlanta +3 (-115) 2 units (-230)

The Giants made the playoffs, but they’re hardly playing good football right now. Eli Manning is good, as is Victor Cruz, but that’s about all they have going from them. They can rush the passer, but the rest of their defense is pretty bad and their offensive line and running game are a far cry from what they’ve been in the past.

They finished this season 3-5 after a 6-2 start with those 3 wins coming against an 8-8 Jets team that finished on a 3 game losing streak themselves and the Cowboys, who finished the season 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games. They’ve always been better in the first half than the 2^nd half under Tom Coughlin, going 47-17 SU in the first half since Coughlin took over in 2004 and 27-37 SU in the second half of the season. They’ve also only won a playoff game in one season under Coughlin, missing the playoffs or being one and done in the other 7 seasons.

The Falcons, meanwhile, do tend to struggle on the road, but I really like their team. Outside of the top 6 (GB, NE, NO, SF, PIT, BAL), I give them the best chance to make a deep run in the playoffs and one team always seems to come out of Wild Card weekend and make a deeper run than most expect. I don’t know if Atlanta necessarily does that (a win here sends them to Lambeau next week), but I do like them to win here over an overrated Giants team that seems ripe for another playoff flop.

Denver Broncos 16 Pittsburgh Steelers 13 Upset Pick (+320)

Pick against spread: Denver +9 (-115) 6 units (+600)

Time travel with me for a bit. The year is 2011. The Seattle Seahawks had just made the playoffs as a 7-9 team from the NFC West, the NFL’s worst division. Everyone thought they were a joke who had no business being in the playoffs and they were 10 point home dogs for the New Orleans Saints, who was in the middle of another strong season in their quest to repeat as Super Bowl Champions. Everyone and their dog bet on New Orleans, but I recognized it as an obvious trap line.

New Orleans had struggled in the elements before and Seattle had a huge home field advantage. The Seahawks also had the “no one believes in us factor.” Besides, that was only the 2^nd time all season that a team had been double digit home dogs, with the first being Carolina with Brian St. Pierre at quarterback against the eventual 12-4 Baltimore Ravens. Carolina deserved to be double digit home dogs there, but the Seahawks certainly didn’t. I picked the Seahawks to cover (one of my favorite plays of the year) and they shocked even me as they not only covered the 10.5, but won outright.

Back to 2012. Denver makes the playoffs as an 8-8 team out of an awful division, the AFC West. They’re on a 3 game losing streak, losing by a combined 88-40, including the last two against sub .500 teams, the Chiefs and the Bills. They’re playing awful. There’s no question about that. Tebow has regressed as a passer as teams have caught onto him some and John Fox’s retarded game plan which only lets Tebow throw on clear passing downs, on which throws tend to be low percentage, gets stupider by the week. The defense hasn’t been the same since Von Miller’s thumb injury. They aren’t running the ball well anymore and the offensive line has been awful, as have the receivers. But are the Steelers playing any better?

Ben Roethlisberger is clearly not healthy. They barely beat the Browns 13-9 and in Ben Roethlisberger’s last two games since the injury, they’ve beaten Cleveland 14-3 and lost to San Francisco 20-3. The only game they’ve looked good in throughout their last 4 was the St. Louis game, in which a healthy Charlie Batch led Pittsburgh to a 27-0 against an awful St. Louis team that can make almost anyone look good. Now Rashard Mendenhall is out with a knee injury as well.

Even when Ben Roethlisberger and Rashard Mendenhall were healthy, they had trouble putting away bad teams. Indianapolis only lost by 3, Jacksonville only by 4, Tyler Palko’s Kansas City Chiefs only by 4, and then of course, the two Cleveland games I mentioned. Even the biggest Tebow hater would have to agree that the Broncos are at least a little bit better than that group of jokers. Besides, the Steelers have always struggled as large favorites. Ben Roethlisberger is 3-10 ATS as road favorites of 7+, 1-8 ATS as road favorites of 9+, 5-12 ATS as non-divisional favorites of 9+ (home or away).

Like I felt last year, I feel this line could be a trap line. There have only been 8 games where the road team was favored by 9+ this season, Green Bay/Carolina, Pittsburgh/Indianapolis, Green Bay/Minnesota, Baltimore/Jacksonville, New Orleans/St. Louis, Pittsburgh/Kansas City, Green Bay/Kansas City, San Francisco/St. Louis. On paper, this game might not look that even, but it certainly looks more even than those 8 games, but Vegas is feeding off the public’s perception that the Broncos are absolute crap with this line, just like they fed (and profited) off of the public’s perception that the Seahawks were absolute crap last year. And the kicker, of those 8 teams favored by 9+ on the road, none of them covered. In fact, 3 of them lost (Baltimore in Jacksonville, New Orleans in St. Louis, Green Bay in Kansas City).

Another prominent trap line was in Super Bowl 42. The Patriots were double digit favorites on a neutral field. That line prayed on the public’s belief that the New York Giants were the worst team to ever make the Super Bowl and that the Patriots were awesome and invincible. A lot of people lost a lot of money that day, just like a lot of people lost a lot of money last year picking the Saints and a lot of people would lose a lot of money this year picking the Steelers (if this is a trap, the public is eating it up and betting heavily on the Steelers, which is a good sign.)

The most obvious sign that this line is a trap, Pittsburgh was 7 point favorites in Cleveland last week and didn’t cover. Now they’re 9 point favorites in Denver? Denver is worse than Cleveland?! Vegas isn’t stupid. This line was designed for a reason, to trap bettors into betting Pittsburgh and feed off the public jumping ship from the Tebow bandwagon.

The Broncos also have the “nobody believes in us” advantage here. Everyone is counting them out and that is an extremely powerful motivator. The Steelers could also not take them seriously, which works to their advantage as well. As bad as the Broncos have been over the past 3 weeks, they’re still 5-2 ATS as dogs under Tebow this season. They also have a big home field advantage. It’s not quite Qwest Field, but the Broncos have very loyal fans who will be very excited for their team’s first trip to the postseason since 2005.

This home field advantage will also have one more tangible, noticeable effect. In 2007, Ryan Clark made his first trip to Denver to play the Broncos and became near deathly ill. Clark has a sickle cell trait, along with another condition, which did not react well when Clark attempted to play in Denver’s high altitude. Clark lost 30 pounds, the rest of his season, and had to have his spleen removed. He did not play when the Steelers returned to Denver in 2009 and though they’re saying it’s possible he could play this week if he’s cleared by a doctor, I doubt he gets cleared and plays. After what happened last time, it’s too big of a risk. In the big picture, it’s just a football game. Assuming he doesn’t play, his absence certainly doesn’t help things for the Steelers. He’s their leading tackler.

One final parallel to last year’s Seahawks/Saints game is that the Steelers made the Super Bowl last year. Teams who make the playoffs (whether they win it or lose it) tend to struggle the following season. No defending Super Bowl Champion has won a playoff game since the Patriots in 2004 and no Super Bowl Runner Up has won the Super Bowl the next year since the 1973 Dolphins and only 2 Super Bowl Runner Ups have won playoff games since 1998 (2006 Seahawks, 2009 Cardinals).

And the final reason I like the Broncos this week is that bad teams tend to do pretty well in the playoffs. I’ve beaten the Seahawks/Saints story to death, but two other teams had average records and poor points differentials and made the playoffs (the Broncos finished -81 on the season). The 9-7 Arizona Cardinals in 1998 made the playoffs with a differential of -53. They ended up winning their road playoff game by 13 in Dallas, the franchise’s first since 1947. The 8-8 Rams made in it 2004 with a differential of -73. They ended up winning in Seattle by 7. In both cases, it could easily be argued that the bad playoff team was simply overlooked. The last 4 8-8 or 7-9 playoff teams won in the first round (St. Louis, Minnesota in 2004, San Diego in 2008, Seattle in 2010).

I’m hesitant to pick the Broncos to win straight up (although I was hesitant to pick Seattle to win straight up last year and look what happened there), but I love them to cover. The Steelers are not healthy and not playing good football and they always seem to have trouble as big favorites, especially on the road. They’ll also miss Ryan Clark’s services in the secondary, as well as Rashard Mendenhall’s at running back. This line looks like a trap line when you compare these two teams to the teams in the other 8 games which featured 9+ point road favorites this season, in which those road favorites were 0-8 ATS and just 5-3 SU. It also looks like a trap line when you see that Pittsburgh was just -7 in Cleveland last weekend and didn’t even cover.

Meanwhile, the Broncos will have a very excited crowd on their side, a huge home field advantage (high altitude is no fun for any visiting player to play in, even if it doesn’t make them near deathly ill), and the “nobody believes in us factor.” I’m expecting this to be a very close, low scoring game with the Steelers eventually prevailing, but failing to cover. The Broncos have had 12 of their 16 games decided by 7 or less (8-4 SU), while the Steelers have had 8 of 16 games decided by 8 or less (6-2 SU). Although, as long as it’s close, you never know, we might get some Tebow Time, though he’s come up empty in his last 3 tries. Couldn’t you just see him breaking off a Marshawn Lynch style Beast Mode run to win it late? I am picking the Steelers to advance though.

Sunday Morning Update: Putting 1 unit on Denver +320 to win straight up. 3 to 1 odds is too good of value. Also putting 6 on Denver +9. This is one of my favorite picks of the year.