Last week overall: 2-2

Last week ATS: 1-3 (-290/-2 units)

Overall picks: 167-93 (.642)

Upset Picks: 1-2 (+120/-1 unit)

ATS Picks: 109-143-8 (-12335/-91 units)

Survivor picks: 13-5 (NE, PIT, BAL, GB, NYG, PHI, NO, SF, DAL, SD, ATL, NYJ, DEN, TB, TEN, HOU, ARI, NO)

Upset picks: 30-34 (+3290/+6 units)

Prop Bets: +188 

2010 Total: +6408

2010/2011 Total: -2449

 

San Francisco 49ers 23 New Orleans Saints 20 Upset Pick (+170)

Pick against spread: San Francisco +3.5 (-110) 2 units (+200)

How can Alex Smith possibly keep up with Drew Brees? That’s all I’ve been hearing all week. Everyone and their dog thinks the Saints are going to win here. In fact, the 49ers are the first team to get a first round bye and then be home dogs in their first playoff game since…ever. That’s never happened before. And the public is still pounding New Orleans -3.5. That has to suggest trap line. You also know that Jim Harbaugh is preaching an “us against the world” and “no one believes in us” message in that locker room, as he’s been doing all season as the 49ers have gone to a 13-3 record, including a 11-3-2 ATS record. Vegas has been undervaluing them all season.

In a bubble, there would be no way Alex Smith could keep up with Drew Brees. Drew Brees might be the league’s MVP and is certainly the league’s hottest quarterback at the moment. However, Drew Brees has a few things working against him. He has to play outdoors in the elements in San Francisco and against the 49ers’ top ranked scoring defense.

The Saints’ road struggles are well documented. They are 5-3 on the road this season, as opposed to 8-0 at home, but they lost in Tampa Bay to a Tampa Bay team that lost 10 straight immediately afterwards and in St. Louis to a St. Louis team that won one other game all season. In the last two seasons, the Saints are 3-8 ATS in non-divisional road games. This season, they are averaging 41.6 points per game at home, but only 27.3 points per game on the road. Meanwhile, Drew Brees is 216 of 300 (72.0%) for 2624 yards (8.8 YPA), 29 touchdowns and 6 picks at home. On the road, he is 252 of 357 (70.6%) for 2852 yards (8.0 YPA), 17 touchdowns and 8 picks.

As well documented as the Saints’ road struggles are, there hasn’t been enough said about the 49ers success at home. They’re allowing a mere 10.9 points per game at home, 7.2 points per game at home in their last 6 games (Tampa Bay, Cleveland, NY Giants, Arizona, St. Louis, Pittsburgh). I know that’s not the toughest schedule, but that’s definitely worth nothing.

They haven’t played a quarterback of Drew Brees’ caliber, but they’ve played 5 quarterbacks who are at least solid, ranking top 13 in quarterback rating this season. Tony Romo (4^th) was 20 of 33 for 345 yards, 2 touchdowns and no picks. Matt Stafford (5^th) was 28 of 50 for 293 yards, 2 touchdowns and no picks. Eli Manning (7^th) was 26 of 40 for 311 yards, 2 touchdowns and 2 picks. Ben Roethlisberger (10th) was hurt, but he went 25 of 44 for 330 yards, no touchdowns and 3 picks. Michael Vick (13^th) was 30-46 for 416 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 pick. That’s a combined 129 of 213 (60.6%) for 1695 yards (8.0 YPA), 8 touchdowns and 6 picks.

Finally, there is one trend that works against the Saints. Teams that score 35+ in the playoffs are actually 6-14 ATS the next week. I think the Saints are overvalued by Vegas here and there’s a possibility that this is a trap line considering how much the public is pounding New Orleans. San Francisco is the first round 2 home dog ever. The Saints aren’t the same team on the road and the 49ers have the type of defense that can limit their explosive offense. They tend to struggle in the elements and it’ll be plenty windy in San Francisco. In fact, last season, the Saints barely won in San Francisco and the 49ers were nowhere near as good as they are now. I think this will be a close game either way. I think the 49ers will win, but if the Saints win, I still like getting 3.5 points with the 49ers because we could easily see this being a field goal game.

New England Patriots 31 Denver Broncos 27

Pick against spread: Denver +13.5 (-110) 4 units

The Broncos beat the Steelers, but there’s no way they can possibly beat the Patriots right? Well, that seems to be what Vegas thinks as they’ve made New England 13.5 point favorites, the 3^rd largest line in playoff history (1-1 ATS) and 3.5 points higher than the Patriots were at home for the Bills (-10). I think New England has a good shot at winning here, but that line is ridiculous.

The Patriots are far from a perfect team. They have one of the worst defenses in NFL history, specifically against the pass. They’re also slow starters. On their 8 game winning streak, they’ve been outscored 60-37 in the first quarter. Now, of course they’ve outscored opponents 257-92 from the 2^nd quarter on, but it’s not like they played a tough schedule. That kind of stuff might not fly in the playoffs. In fact, on that 8 game winning streak, they only played one playoff team.

That one playoff team was these Broncos, their only win against playoff teams all season (1-2 with losses to NY Giants, and Pittsburgh). That game was 41-23 in Denver, just a few weeks ago. Tom Brady was in eff you mode leading the Patriots to 41 points and putting an end to Tebowmania. I can imagine he could be in eff you mode this week once again as Tebowmania is back and of course he has that 3 game playoff losing streak to try to end. Joe Montana once lost 3 games in a row in the playoffs and then won his 4^th Super Bowl the next season, so it’s not totally damning for Brady, but he’ll be extremely motivated to try to put an end to that streak this week.

That doesn’t necessarily mean Tom Brady and company will score 40+ again. They were aided by 3 Denver fumbles. Denver obviously can’t give Brady and company extra possessions again this week so they better hope that was a fluke. The Broncos also now have Von Miller playing at a higher level now that he’s healthier than he was in their previous meeting. That will allow the Broncos to get more pressure on Brady than they did last time and Miller’s ability in coverage and against the run as a linebacker will also help stop the Patriots.

Still, the Patriots will score. You have to predict that. They’re almost definitely scoring 30 again. They’ve scored 30+ in 7 of their last 8 games and 12 of 16 overall. Dating back to last season, including their playoff loss to New York, they’ve scored 30+ in 20 of their last 25. However, as bad as the Patriots defense is and as good as Tebow played last week against a much better Pittsburgh defense after John Fox and the rest of the coaching staff started letting him throw other than in non-obvious passing situations. They’ll also be able to run on the Patriots defense like that did last time. In fact, if it wasn’t for those 3 fumbles, their last matchup would have been a lot closer. One trend that works for Denver, teams are 58-44 ATS in the playoffs trying to avenge a regular season loss since 2002.

Two trends that work in Denver’s favor relate to last week’s win over the Steelers. Teams are 10-6 ATS off an overtime playoff win since 2002, while teams are 7-4 ATS off a win as 7+ dogs in the playoffs in that same time period. The Patriots scored 49 points week 17 and teams that score 35+ week 17 are 14-6 ATS in their first playoff game since 2002, 9-2 ATS as favorites, but as bad as the Patriots have been as double digit favorites recently, 3-13 ATS in their last 16, 3-11 ATS with Brady, 0-2 ATS with Cassel, I still like the Broncos this week.

The Patriots defense isn’t very good and Tebow is playing well now. The Broncos have had 12 of their 17 games decided by a touchdown or less (8-4 SU). Of the 5 games that weren’t, one was a Denver win, two were close except turnovers (New England, Buffalo), one was against the Packers with Kyle Orton, and one was a legitimate blowout loss by the Tebow led Broncos.

I expect this to be a close game and stay within the 13.5, but at the end of the day, I’m taking the Patriots. They’re still the most experienced playoff team and no team with a point differential of -50 or less in the regular season (Denver) has ever won more than one playoff game. Tebow might be clutch, but Brady’s got that clutch gene too. I actually trust him more in a close game than I do Tebow. It’s Brady time!

Note: I’m putting 1 unit on the Broncos +595 on the money line. The 6 to 1 is just too good to pass on. They could win in New England. It’s way more possible than 6 to 1.

 

Green Bay Packers 38 New York Giants 24

Pick against spread: Green Bay -8 (+100) 3 units

In 2007, the Giants lost to the undefeated New England Patriots by 3 in the regular season and then beat them in the Super Bowl. This year, the Giants lost to the undefeated Green Bay Packers by 3 in the regular season. They’ve gotten hot at the right time, winning 4 of their last 5. They shut out the Falcons offense last week. Eli Manning is playing the best football of his career and has great receivers around him, Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz, Mario Manningham, Jake Ballard, the running game has come alive finally and the defense is playing it’s best football at the right time led by their finally healthy defensive line which can get after the quarterback better than maybe anyone in football.

Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers won’t have played in 3 weeks. I don’t know why this isn’t getting more mention and I’ll never understand why teams rest their starters for the whole game when they have a bye in the first round of the playoffs. You’re taking a huge risk in throwing the starters off their rhythm. The Giants matchup well with the Packers. They almost beat them a few weeks ago and they can get pressure without blitzing, always a key, especially with as banged up the Packers’ offensive line is.

The problem is, all that stuff I said above is what everyone is saying this week. The Packers are rusty. The Giants matchup well with them. The Giants are hot. The Giants almost beat them in the regular season. The Giants remind me of the 2007 Giants. Aaron Rodgers is going to come out in eff you mode. They’re basically underdogs (in reality the Giants are public dogs, and one of the biggest public dogs I’ve seen in a while, roughly 70-75% of the action is on the Giants).

The Packerd can play the “nobody believes in us card.” The 2007 Giants had the element of surprise. The 2011 Giants don’t. Everyone expects them to make a “surprise” run to the Super Bowl. They’re so underrated that they’ve become overrated. They also don’t have the same offensive line or running game or back seven they had in 2007. The pass rush is still there and Eli is even better, but the Packers are better than any team they played in 2007. The Packers are a 15-1 team. Newsflash. They’re really, really good. Now they’re just 8 point favorites at home over a team that lost to the Redskins a few weeks ago and has a really banged up back 7 and signature wins over the Jets, Cowboys, and Falcons? I’m taking the Packers.

Baltimore Ravens 24 Houston Texans 9 Lock Pick

Pick against spread: Baltimore -9 (+110) 3 units

The Texans lost 29-14 to the Ravens in Baltimore earlier this season and that was WITH Matt Schaub. Matt Schaub is out. Andre Johnson is back, but I don’t give the Texans much chance to score this week. They’re a run heavy offense and the Ravens can bottle up even the best of rushing attacks. The Ravens have been inconsistent this season, but I think they’re focused here off a bye. One of, if not the most impressive game of their season was against Houston and that was off a bye.

The Ravens are also 7-1 ATS against teams with winning records this season. They’re focused for good team and they’ll be even more focused now that this is the playoffs and they’ve had a week off. They may be 2-6-1 ATS as favorites of 6+, but one of those two wins was against these Houston Texans -7 in a situation very similar to this, at home, off a bye. Also, Houston was -7 earlier this season and didn’t cover and now they’re just -9 with extra juice without Matt Schaub? Teams may be 58-44 ATS in the playoffs trying to avenge a regular season loss since 2002, 20-12 ATS trying to avenge a 14+ point loss, but I’m taking the Ravens here.