All spreads on Bodog. All money lines on 5dimes.

Last week overall: 12-4

Last week ATS: 6-9-1 (-670/-5 units)

Overall picks: 20-12 (.625)

ATS Picks: 12-18-2 (-1590/-12 units)

Lock picks: 2-0

Upset picks: 3-6 (-130)

2 down weeks in a row. It looks bad to start a season, but it can happen at any time. Gambling is just that. A gamble. If Buffalo -3.5 covers last week, I win $170 instead of lose $670. Buffalo won by 3. It happens. Unlike week 1, I don’t think I completely misread the games. I was 12-4 straight up. Here’s hoping for some better luck week 3.

Cincinnati Bengals 20 San Francisco 10

Pick against spread: Cincinnati -3 (+105) 3 units (-300)

It’s fun fact time. Since 2008, 7 quarterbacks have started week 1, a complete contrast to what was happening before then, when starting rookie quarterbacks week 1 was completely taboo. Those 7 quarterbacks, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Matt Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Sam Bradford, Cam Newton, and Andy Dalton. Ryan, Flacco, Stafford, Sanchez, and Bradford ALL won and covered week 3. Newton and Dalton have a chance to do the same this. It’s not a huge trend, but it makes sense. Rookie starters are settled in by week 3 so it makes sense they’d have their best game then.

Can Cam Newton and Andy Dalton keep this up? I’ll have my answer on Cam Newton later, but as for Andy Dalton, I think he definitely can. San Francisco would have only beaten the lowly Seahawks in San Francisco by 2 week 2 if Ted Ginn didn’t go insane and score 2 special teams touchdowns in just over a minute. Last week, they were outplayed by Dallas (in terms of total yards), but still led 24-14 going into the 4^th quarter. They blew that lead and lost at home 27-24 to the Cowboys as Tony Romo (TONY ROMO?!) led a miraculous fourth quarter drive to tie and overtime drive to win despite playing with a punctured lung he suffered in the 3^rd quarter.

San Francisco is going to be extremely flat off of that loss and now they have to travel 3 time zones and play Cincinnati at a 1 o’clock start, a situation West Coast teams are 24-42 ATS in after a home game. I also think Cincinnati is the better team and right now the line is at -3, which suggests that Cincinnati and San Francisco are equal.

New England Patriots 35 Buffalo Bills 31

Pick against spread: Buffalo +9 (-115) 4 units (+400)

The Buffalo Bills are 2-0 and yet they are 9 point home dogs to the New England Patriots. They have to be feeling disrespected right now. I tried to find a trend to see how 2-0 teams do as 7+ point home dogs. There wasn’t one. The reason why, the Bills are the ONLY 2-0 7+ point home dog as far back as I have data for (2000). Given that they haven’t beaten the Patriots since 2003 and that they’re going to feel disrespected, you have to figure that they’ll be playing their hearts out this week. This is their Super Bowl.

In their next 11 games after their last win against New England, Buffalo was 2-9 ATS. In their last 4, they’re 2-1-1 ATS. They’re getting better and they have delivered a scare to New England in their first matchup of the year in the last 2 years, covering as underdogs both times.

Speaking of the fact that Buffalo is the biggest 2-0 home dog I could find, that makes this a definite trap line. Here’s what I mean by trap line. Last year Seattle was 10 point home dogs in the playoffs to New Orleans. That was only the 2^nd time that season a team was 10+ point home dogs. The other time was Baltimore in Carolina when Carolina was starting Brian St. Pierre, a career backup they had just signed out of retirement. The Seahawks didn’t deserve to be 10 point home dogs. They’re great at home and New Orleans struggles in the elements. However, everyone still bet on the Saints because everyone thought, the Seahawks don’t deserve to be here, the Saints will destroy them. The Seahawks covered and also won and Vegas won a lot of money (as did I because I put 5 units on the Seahawks).

Remember Super Bowl 42. The general perception was that New England couldn’t be beaten and New York didn’t deserve to be there and New York was the largest Super Bowl underdogs in NFL history (12 points on a neutral field). Everyone still bet New England. Vegas won a lot of money when New York covered and won. How does that relate to this game? Well, the general perception going into this game is that New England is awesome and can’t be beaten, while Buffalo is only a fluke 2-0 because of who they’ve played (Kansas City, Oakland). The majority of the money right now is on New England. I’m going with the underdog in this trap line.

I did find a few trends that related to this game. Buffalo is a home dog of 7+ after a straight up home win. Since 2002, teams are 12-4 ATS in that situation. That makes sense. They’re comfortable in their 2^nd straight home game. They’re coming off a win, yet they’re still disrespected by the oddsmakers, who make them 7+ point home dogs. Buffalo is also a divisional home dog of 7+ in their 2^nd straight game at home. They’re comfortable at home and still big home dogs. Plus, divisional games tend to be closer than most since these teams are so familiar with each other. Teams in these situations are 11-6 ATS since 2002 and 2-1 ATS off of a win.

The Patriots have the type of pass defense that allows opponents to keep the game close. They have allowed the 2^nd most passing yards in the league with 762. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a decent quarterback who is a perfect fit for the Chan Gailey offense. He can move the ball on New England enough to keep this one within 9. The only reason I’m not picking Buffalo for 5 is because I bet against New England last week and then when I was watching the game I had a heart attack every time Tom Brady dropped back to pass. However, there are too many situations to ignore in this one.

New Orleans Saints 27 Houston Texans 24

Pick against spread: Houston +4 (-110) 2 units (-220)

The Texans new look defense has lived up to its billing thus far this season. However, they’ve faced Kerry Collins and Chad Henne. I think Drew Brees presents a bit of a tougher challenge. They also have to go into the Superdome, a tough challenge, particularly for a quarterback in Matt Schaub was has never started there before. The noise in the Superdome is impossible to simulate and there’s nothing else quite like it in the league. We saw it last week with Jay Cutler. Quarterbacks struggle on their first visit to the Superdome, particularly quarterbacks like Cutler who are prone to mistakes.

However, there’s something different about this year’s Texans. I bet against them week 1 and week 2 because they were playing in situations they’d normally struggle in. Week 1 they were playing a team that had just lost their starting quarterback. There was no way they give 100% for that game after getting the sigh of relief that was the news of Manning’s injury, right? Well they did. How about last week. Typical trap game. They had games with the Saints and the Steelers in their next 2 weeks. There’s no way they give 100% for the lowly Dolphins right? Wrong. I don’t think you can call this a mistake prone team anymore so I’m not afraid of betting them in New Orleans.

There are two situations that support my decision of Houston. Houston is 10-3 ATS in their 2^nd straight road game under Gary Kubiak. Meanwhile, in the Sean Peyton/Drew Brees era, the Saints are surprisingly a mere 3-8 in their 2^nd straight game as home favorites. I think the Saints still tough out a home win here and the line isn’t huge, but I’m putting a small play on Houston and hoping we get a field goal game here. I think that’s what happens.

Miami Dolphins 19 Cleveland Browns 17 (+120)

Pick against spread: Miami +3 (-130) 3 units (+300)

Miami lost their first 2 games to start 0-2 despite having both at home. They’re screwed now that they have to go to Cleveland right? Well, not necessarily. I don’t know what it is, but the Dolphins SUCK at home. They were 1-7 there last year as opposed to 6-2 on the road and now they’re 0-2 to start this season there. They’re a better road team and this isn’t anything new. In the Tony Sparano era, they’re 17-7 ATS on the road and 7-20 ATS at home.

This makes absolutely no sense and thus it’s perfect for bettors. Vegas adds 3 points to the line depending on where the game is. This line says that Miami and Cleveland are equal, but Cleveland is favored by 3 because they’re at home. However, history says that Miami is BETTER on the road than at home, so much better in fact that maybe they should be 3 point favorites in this situation. Either way, I like betting on Miami on the road and I’m going to be betting against them pretty heavily at home from now on.

I also like betting against Cleveland at a favorite. After their weird winning season in 2007, they’re 4-7 as favorites. Plus, Miami’s offensive coordinator is a former Cleveland assistant. Teams in that situation were 7-3 ATS last season. St. Louis lost in this situation last week, but I think there’s still value in it. It definitely helps in preparation. This line is currently at Miami +3 -130 on Bodog. It’s elsewhere at +1.5 -110. I like getting protection against a field goal win and I’ll pay the extra 20% juice to get that, but I’d bet 3 units on it in either situation.

Tennessee Titans 20 Denver Broncos 16

Pick against spread: Denver +7 (-115) 3 units (+300)

Tennessee was absolutely terrible week 1 losing to Jacksonville 5 days after they had just cut their starting quarterback. And it’s not like Jacksonville’s new signal caller was good or anything. He had a 1.8 QB rating last week against New York with 6 completions and 4 interceptions. However, Tennessee rebounded week 2 beating Baltimore, who had just demolished Pittsburgh by 28 the week before.

However, I’m still not sure Tennessee is very good. Baltimore was probably just really flat last week off of a huge emotional win over the Steelers. I don’t even know why I picked Baltimore (only for 1 unit). I knew Baltimore could be flat off of their win over Pittsburgh. I tweeted last year after the Jets beat the Patriots in the playoffs that teams who win “their Super Bowl” are almost always flat the next week. Hell, I even picked against Houston last week for the same reason I should have picked against Baltimore. Houston had just beaten the shit out of Indy.

All that being said, I don’t think Tennessee is very good at all. Denver sucks too, especially on the road, but I think Tennessee is a 6 win team at the end of the season. Teams who end up winning 6 games are 22-61 ATS since 2002 when favored by 6 or more. This is one of the most powerful trends, when used right. However, especially early in the season, it’s very tough to know which teams are going to go 6-10 or worse. However, these picks are predictions and I predict Tennessee is a 5 or 6 win team. I’m taking Denver for 3 units. This line seems ridiculously high to me anyway. Tennessee isn’t 4 points better than Denver.

Philadelphia Eagles 20 New York Giants 13

Pick against spread: NY Giants +9 (-120) 1 unit (+100)

New York hasn’t had a lot of success against Philadelphia in recent years, but I still think this line is much too high. I think the Eagles are still pretty overrated. Michael Vick is a turnover prone quarterback who struggles against the blitz and as banged up as the Giants are, they can still get after the quarterback. They have 6 sacks in 2 games and one of those games was without Justin Tuck. Osi Umenyiora is still out, but Jason Pierre Paul and Dave Tollefson have filled in nicely.

Besides, divisional underdogs on the road of 7+ are 125-94 ATS since 2002. That’s not a huge trend, but divisional matchups do tend to be closer than most. Besides, Tom Coughlin is 7-4 ATS as 7+ underdogs in his time in New York.

The Eagles have a great defense and their excellent cornerbacks should be able to easily stop the Giants’ passing attack given their lack of depth at receiver thanks to injuries. However, I don’t trust their offense against a New York team that can get pressure and creativity blitz. Also, the trends say New York is the right side. I expect this to be a low scoring game in which New York covers, but at the same time, New York is so banged up right now, I don’t feel comfortable putting more than a unit on this.

Detroit Lions 27 Minnesota Vikings 19

Pick against spread: Detroit -4 (-105) 2 units (-210)

Detroit is favored on the road by 3+, a situation they are a whopping 0-0 in since 1999. That’s right. This is the first time they’ve been favored by 3+ in almost 12 years (week 15 1999 was the last time). Times are changing in the NFL. Detroit is actually good. Like really, really good.

Discounting a garbage time touchdown against Tampa Bay, their defense has allowed 9 points (3 field goals) this year. They have so many offensive weapons (Jahvid Best, Calvin Johnson, Brandon Pettigrew, Nate Burleson, Titus Young), and a great young signal caller in Matt Stafford. This team is the real deal. I have no problem betting them as road favorites against Minnesota, who has to be flat after blowing a big lead (17-0) against Tampa Bay last week.

Carolina Panthers 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 17

Spread: Carolina -4 (-105) 2 units (+200)

I mentioned how good rookie quarterbacks have been week 3 in my Cincinnati/San Francisco pick. Do I think Cam Newton can make it a perfect 7 for 7 with rookie quarterbacks week 3 (provided they started week 1)? I do. Cam Newton is a very good quarterback for the stage in his development he’s in. Carolina hasn’t won yet, but they started the season on the road in Arizona and then faced the defending champs in Carolina last week. A home game against Jacksonville is completely different.

Jacksonville is a mess right now. They could be switching quarterbacks for the 2^nd time in 3 weeks. If they don’t switch quarterbacks, they’re starting a quarterback who is coming off of a game in which he had 6 completions and 4 interceptions. They’re extremely thin at wide receiver and could be thinner if Marcedes Lewis and Jason Hill can’t go again. Their 32^nd ranked secondary from a year ago has had trouble with the likes of Matt Hasselbeck and Mark Sanchez and could again be missing their top defensive back, Derek Cox. I don’t buy that Carolina is only 1 point better than Jacksonville, which is what this line is telling us.

However, there are some trends in play here, but they basically cancel each other out. In the Jack Del Rio era, Jacksonville is 6-2 as a road dog off of a road loss, but they’re also 10-21 against non-divisional opponents in the last 3 plus years. I’m sticking with Carolina for 2.

San Diego Chargers 27 Kansas City Chiefs 17

Pick against spread: Kansas City +15 (-110) 4 units (+400)

The Chiefs suck. They have been outscored 150-30 in their last 4 games that counted. In those 4 games, Matt Cassel is 57-109 for 437 yards, 1 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. They’ve already lost Eric Berry, Tony Moeaki, and Jamaal Charles to injury. However, I really like them this week for many reasons. For one, the Chargers always shoot themselves in the foot in the first half of the season. They almost lost to Minnesota in a game that Donovan McNabb threw for 37 yards and then they lost by 14 to the Patriots in a game that was pretty even yards wise. They might be 12 points better than Kansas City (add 3 for home field), but there’s a very slim chance they play like it.

Also, the Chiefs did make the playoffs last year. Since 2003, teams that have started 0-2 that made the playoffs the year before are 13-7 ATS. I know you’re thinking, yeah but the Chiefs suck. That may be true, but so did the Cowboys and Vikings last year in this same situation and they covered.

Besides, it may be good that they suck. They’re undervalued. For this reason, teams that lose straight up by 28+ are 55-30 ATS since 2002. They have something to prove here after playing terrible for 2 straight weeks. They’re playing to protect their dignity as a team that made the playoffs just last year. They’re also playing to avenge their 31 point loss to San Diego last year. Teams trying to avenge a 14+ point loss to a divisional opponent are 72-47 ATS since 2002.

Meanwhile, San Diego is coming off a crushing loss to the Patriots. There’s no way they play 100% against the lowly Chiefs this week, especially since San Diego typically struggles in the first few weeks of the season. I think we’re getting excellent value with Kansas City -15. I’d put 5 units if I wasn’t afraid the Chiefs come out and simply don’t have the talent to cover and San Diego wins 28-3 or something playing at 75-80% motivation. However, I’m pretty confident Kansas City is the right side here.

New York Jets 23 Oakland Raiders 20

Pick against spread: Oakland +3.5 (-115) 1 unit (+100)

This was the matchup I had the toughest time with. New York has an awesome defense. Luke McCown sucks, but you don’t hold a quarterback to a 1.8 QB rating if you don’t have an awesome defense. They also are a great run defense and should be able to contain Darren McFadden. This offense goes as McFadden goes as Jason Campbell isn’t much more than a game manager.

However, New York is going to be feeling really good about themselves coming into this game after how well they played last week. They also have the Ravens and the Patriots in consecutive weeks coming up. I doubt they give 100% for the lowly Raiders after traveling 3 time zones. The Raiders aren’t a completely terrible team and the Jets have had some disappointing games in the Rex Ryan era. Besides, New York plays a lot of field goal games. I’m going with Oakland for 1.

Seattle Seahawks 17 Arizona Cardinals 13 Upset Pick (+165)

Pick against spread: Seattle +3.5 (-115) 3 units (+300)

Seattle has looked dreadful in their first 2 games of the season, losing in San Francisco and then getting crushed in Pittsburgh in a game where they didn’t call their first play in Pittsburgh territory until midway in the 4^th quarter. However, they head home now. This team at home is completely different.

Qwest field is one of the biggest home field advantages in the league. They won a playoff game there last year they had no business winning. They won 5 games there last year despite being so bad on the road that they lost by multiple touchdowns 6 times on the road. Since 2007, they’re 22-12 ATS at home and 10-26 ATS on the road.

Besides, a trend I’ve already mentioned, Seattle is a playoff team from last year that started 0-2. Those teams are 13-7 ATS since 2003. They’re going to want to protect their dignity this week, especially at home. Besides, this is an NFC West matchup. The NFC West sucks. No NFC West team has any right to be road favorites. NFC West teams were 4-8 straight up last year in road divisional matchups, 4-9 if you include Seattle’s trip to San Francisco week 1 this year. If you include 2009, NFC West teams are 9-16 straight up in divisional matchups. The division was also a combined 6-26 straight up on the road last year and they’re already off to a 0-4 start this year on the road.

I don’t care how bad Seattle is. No NFC West team deserves to be favored on the road. Besides, are we even sure Arizona is that good. They almost lost week 1 to Carolina at home and then they lost to Washington last week. They’re not terrible, but I’m not so sure they’re good either. This line says they’re 6.5 points better than Seattle and that’s not including the extra 1-2 points Seattle should get for playing at home. Seattle sucks, but I’m not buying they’re 7 or 8 points worse than Arizona. I’m taking Seattle here and not just to cover, but to win outright. Seattle wins games they don’t deserve to win at home all the time. I think this is another one of those situations.

Baltimore Ravens 27 St. Louis Rams 13 Lock/Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Baltimore -4 (-110) 3 units (+300)

Jon Gruden made what I thought was an interesting point during the Monday Night Game. He said, I would not want to play a Tom Coughlin team after a bad loss. He said this as New York was up 12 after getting destroyed in Washington as road favorites the week before. This made sense, so I looked up if there were any trends related to it. Here’s what I found. Off of a loss as a favorite, the Giants are 11-9 straight up and 11-9 ATS in the Tom Coughlin era. Looks like Jon Gruden was wrong, at least with that.

He then said that St. Louis has to play Baltimore in their next game and he would not want to face a John Harbaugh team after a bad loss. Baltimore is coming off of a loss as a road favorite to Tennessee. Lo and behold, Gruden was right. In the John Harbaugh era, Baltimore is 4-1 SU and ATS off of a loss as favorites. They’re going to be a tough team this week. John Harbaugh is not going to be happy after the way they performed last week. They’re going to be 100% ready for St. Louis this week.

St. Louis, meanwhile, could be really flat. They’re coming off of a loss on Monday Night Football of 10+. Teams in this situation are 33-57 ATS since 2002. They’re playing terrible football right now, making mistakes left and right. They have tons of injuries and Sam Bradford is cracking under the pressure of having to do it all by himself in just his 2^nd year in the league. I like Baltimore to bounce back and win in their 2^nd straight game as road favorites.

 

Green Bay Packers 27 Chicago Bears 13

Pick against spread: Green Bay -4 (-105) 2 units (+200)

Remember when Chicago looked like the real deal week 1? Good times. The Bears got destroyed 30-13 in New Orleans last week despite jumping out to an early 7 point lead. It was 16-10 at the half and I stopped paying much attention to the game in the 2^nd half, but literally every time I looked up, Cutler was either on the ground or running for his life. He was sacked 6 times and pressured on almost every play and that was a New Orleans team that was playing without its top pass rusher Will Smith. He was seen on the sideline noticeably frustrated with his supporting cast. That can’t be good for team morale.

On top of that, rookie right tackle Gabe Carimi is going to miss at least a week with an injury. Once Carimi left last week, things went from bad to worse on that line. With Clay Matthews and company coming to Chicago this week, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if we saw a repeat of the Chicago/New York game last year where Cutler was sacked 10 times. Green Bay’s defense hasn’t looked great so far this season, but they played Drew Brees week 1 in a shootout and then Carolina last week in a game they weren’t that focused for. They’ll be focused for this divisional clash against the team that actually won the division last year.

I’m at the point again where I can’t bet heavily on Chicago anymore. The Packers are road favorites here which is something to worry about, but by all indications, they deserve to be. Aaron Rodgers has been on fire since midway through last season and doesn’t appear to be letting up. I can’t see this game even being close. The Packers outplayed the Bears in all three meetings last year, only losing in Chicago week 3 by 3 last year in a game they had 18 penalties. Unless that happens again, we should be fine betting on Green Bay.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 Atlanta Falcons 24

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay -1 (-105) 2 units (+200)

After looking terrible against Chicago in the opener, the Falcons rebounded against Philadelphia last week. However, I’m not so sure everything is okay for the Falcons again. It’s clear they aren’t the team they were a year ago. They needed a Vick injury to beat Philadelphia and they looked horrible against Chicago. Their offensive line isn’t as good with the loss of Harvey Dahl and left tackle Sam Baker seems to have gotten worse in the offseason. Trent Cole beat him on almost every play last week.

Besides, Atlanta is a bad team on the road. They’re a mere 13-13 straight up on the road in the Matt Ryan/Mike Smith era. This is as opposed to 21-5 at home in that same period, since 2008. I don’t know if they can go into Tampa Bay and win, which they’ll have to do to cover this week. They also could be flat after an emotional win last week. They really wanted to beat Philadelphia after all the “dream team” talk and after Philadelphia beat them last year. It’s going to be hard for them to maintain that intensity against Tampa Bay. That’s why I like Tampa Bay to win and thus cover against an even spread.

Pittsburgh Steelers 23 Indianapolis Colts 17

Pick against spread: Indianapolis +11 (-115) 4 units (+400)

Is it possible to win MVP if you don’t even play a snap? If so, Peyton Manning deserves to win MVP. Don’t worry Colts fans. Your team is going to be this bad all season. They still have talent, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Dwight Freeney, Robert Mathis, Gary Brackett, etc. Kerry Collins is playing terrible right now, but he’s historically a slow starter and he was retired about a month ago. He’s going to take a little bit to warm up. Once he does, the Colts should win 5 or 6 games. I don’t buy the notion that this team is in the Andrew Luck race. Actually, that might be bad news for Colts’ fans.

Pittsburgh, meanwhile, recovered last week from an embarrassing 35-7 loss in Baltimore to the rival Ravens week 1, taking out all their aggression against the lowly Seahawks, who didn’t call a play in Pittsburgh territory until midway through the 4^th quarter. However, now they go back on the road.

I’ve mentioned it twice before and I’ll mention it again. Teams that made the playoffs the year before are 13-7 ATS week 3 if they’ve started 0-2. Besides, Indianapolis is only the 4^th team in the last 2 seasons to be 10 point home dogs. Carolina was 12 point home dogs against Baltimore with Brian St. Pierre at quarterback. Seattle was 10 point home dogs against New Orleans in the playoffs. Carolina was 11 point home dogs against Green Bay last week.

The Seattle playoff game was a trap line. Carolina deserved to be 12 point home dogs with St. Pierre, but not 11 point home dogs with Newton last week. Do the Colts deserve to be 11 point home dogs here? I’m not so sure. I think this line is playing off of the public’s belief that the Colts are 2-14 or 3-13 bad. The public is falling into it as most of the money is on Pittsburgh so far.

More evidence it could be a trap line, Pittsburgh is not good as big road favorites, a mere 2-5 ATS in the Mike Tomlin era as 7+ point favorites. This makes sense. Pittsburgh has never had a high scoring offense or anything. They play and win a lot of close games. I think they’ll play and win a close game here, with Indianapolis playing for their pride at home on Sunday Night Football. Given that, I think Indianapolis covers this spread.

Washington Redskins 27 Dallas Cowboys 21 Upset Pick (+145)

Pick against spread: Washington +3.5 (-110) 2 units

Romo is expected to play here and the line is set at Dallas -3.5 at home. However, Romo won’t be 100%. He’s got bad ribs and if he takes a shot, it could knock him out and bring Jon Kitna in. On top of that, Romo will also be missing his trusty wide out Miles Austin and Dez Bryant and Felix Jones, though expected to play, won’t be 100% either with injuries. Their also have injuries in an already thin secondary.

They choked in New York week 1 and lost and needed to mount a huge comeback to win in San Francisco against the lowly Niners last week, despite dominating the yardage totals. This team doesn’t deserve to be more than 3 point favorites against a Washington team that is playing well right now.

Besides, home favorites after a 1-3 point road win are 48-71 ATS since 2002. Teams tend not to give as much effort the week after a close road win and tend not to cover as favorites. You might think it’d be different with a divisional opponent, but it’s not. Teams in this situation are 14-25 ATS, possibly because divisional opponents tend to be tougher than most. I like the Redskins here straight up and ATS.

This line opened at -4 earlier today. It’s moved to -3.5 (-110) and -3 (-125) now, which suggests that Vegas wants more people to bet on Dallas. I’m not falling for it. As long as I have protection from this being a field goal win by Dallas, I’m taking Washington so I think them -3.5 (-110). I’m also taking them to win straight up. 

LV Hilton Super Contest Picks (for anyone playing): Buffalo +8, Kansas City +14, Indianapolis +10.5, Seattle +3.5,  Cincinnati -2.5 (4-6 on the season)