Last week overall: 11-5

Last week ATS: 13-3 (+2670/+27 units)

Overall picks: 31-17 (.646)

ATS Picks: 25-21-2 (+1080/+15 units)

Lock picks: 3-0

Upset picks: 4-8 (-165)

What a week! I’ve never had a week like that. I dropped 3 games all week, 2 2 unit games and a 3 unit game. I won my other 34 units to put me up 27 units and $2670 ($2635 if you include money line upset picks) for the week. If you stuck with me through 2 down weeks to start the season, I’m really happy I could come through for you. I wish I could guarantee that every week, but I can’t. No one can. But I’m still really happy to be out of the red in a big way. Let’s make it two in a row. Here we go.

Chicago Bears 23 Carolina Panthers 20

Pick against spread: Carolina +7 (-120) 3 units (+300)

The Chicago Bears have looked like crap these past few weeks. Week 2, they allowed 6 sacks and countless quarterback pressures to the Saints without Will Smith. Then they average less than a yard per carry against Green Bay, who focused more on stuffing the run than getting after Cutler and still managed to pressure Cutler consistently. That loss to the Packers last week had to hurt. That’s now 4 times in just over a year they’ve been outplayed by the Packers, who are clearly the team to beat in this division.

Now the Bears could feel they need to beat Detroit next week to even make the playoffs. They’re not going to be worried about lowly Carolina. Since 2008, favorites are 43-66 the week before a divisional matchup they will be underdogs in. It’s safe to say Chicago will be an underdog at Detroit next week, so this applies and it makes sense. You’re not going to give 100% for an inferior opponent with a superior divisional opponent coming up next on your schedule.

Meanwhile, I think Carolina is that one team that will have a much better ATS record than straight up record this year. Last year it was the Lions and to some extent the Rams. This year I think it’s the Panthers. They’re never out of a game with Cam Newton at quarterback, but since they’re probably a 5 win team, Vegas is going to make them 7+ point underdogs fairly often. They’re underdogs of 7 here against a Chicago team that isn’t even that good. Besides, Jay Cutler really struggles as a favorite of 7+ in his career, going 5-9 ATS in that situation. This team is just a mess right now. I’m definitely not betting on them.

Buffalo Bills 20 Cincinnati Bengals 12

Pick against spread: Buffalo -3 (-120) 1 unit (-120)

All hail the Buffalo Bills! After defeating the New England Patriots 34-31, the Bills are one of 3 undefeated teams in the league with the Detroit Lions and the Green Bay Packers. I felt the Bills would give New England a game because they are a talented team and because that game meant more to them than it did to the Patriots, but I didn’t expect them to straight up win.

That win last week had to be huge for the Bills. Not only did they snap a 15 game losing streak against New England, they proved to the world that they are for real. They were 9 point home dogs coming into that game. They weren’t getting any respect despite their 2-0 record. However, after winning big games like that, teams tend to be flat the next week. The Bills gave 110% last week. That kind of effort is going to be very tough to maintain against the lowly Bengals.

The Bills have been my most heavily bet team this year. I bet 5 on them week 1, 4 week 2, and 4 week 3, and they’re 2-1 ATS with a ½ point spread loss against Oakland. This week, I’m not making a big play on them. They’re going to be in cruise control mode this week. They no longer have something huge to prove and they no longer are facing a formidable opponent. However, that doesn’t mean I’m going for the Bengals. The Bengals suck. I don’t think they can win straight up at home and 1 and 2 point losses are very rare in this league. If San Francisco can beat them at home, so can the Bills even if they’re flat. I say worst case scenario, this is a push, but I’m not betting heavily on Buffalo either.

Cleveland Browns 20 Tennessee Titans 17

Pick against spread: Cleveland -1 (-110) 2 units (-220)

When does the schedule get hard for Cleveland? They’ve played Cincinnati (1-2), Indianapolis (0-3), and Miami (0-3) so far. They’ve played 3 teams with a combined 1-8 record. That one win, by the way, was against Cleveland week 1. Now they get Tennessee. Yes, Tennessee did beat Baltimore week 2, but Baltimore was flat off a huge win against Pittsburgh. Tennessee had trouble with Denver last week and could have lost if Denver hadn’t decided to go for it on 4^th and inches on the goal line with the lead.

Besides, this line says that Tennessee is 2 points better than Cleveland. I think these teams are pretty even. Tennessee could be especially flat and/or have trouble moving the ball after losing Kenny Britt for the season, which was confirmed by MRI Monday. That’s a huge loss and considering Chris Johnson decided to suck this year, Britt might have been their only offensive playmaker. I like Cleveland to take advantage of that and win here at home in a close one.

Detroit Lions 31 Dallas Cowboys 17 Upset Pick (+105)

Pick against spread: Detroit +1 (-110) 2 units (+200)

I wonder if Dallas will get their act together this week. Phil Costa botched 4 snaps last week and Kevin Ogletree consistently ran the wrong route. Tony Romo is really not getting a lot of help. His offensive line is so inexperienced. Plus, Miles Austin is out and Ogletree, his replacement, sucks. Besides, Felix Jones is nursing a shoulder injury. He’ll play this week again, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he once again didn’t get a ton of touches. They’re being cautious with him. His backups, Tashard Choice and DeMarco Murray, couldn’t do anything against Washington last week.

If Dallas doesn’t get their act together this week, they’re in a lot of trouble. The Lions pass rush is one of the best in the league. Romo still has a bad rib and the Cowboys offensive line can’t block a plastic bag. If they get early pressure on him, Romo could start making poor decisions with the ball just to get rid of it. I don’t have any trends here to support it, but I really feel like Detroit is the right side. I think they win and improve to 4-0 this week in Dallas.

Houston Texans 27 Pittsburgh Steelers 24

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh +4 (-115) 2 units (-230)

This is an interesting one. Normally getting points with Ben Roethlisberger is a good thing. He’s 14-8 ATS as an underdog in his career, but I bet against him as an underdog week 1 against the Ravens and it panned out for me. The Steelers aren’t in a good situation here. Their offensive line is extremely banged up and Houston can definitely take advantage of that. Wade Phillips calls blitzes more than maybe any other coordinator in the league.

Besides, they’re coming off a road win of 3 or fewer. Teams are 108-127 ATS in that situation the next week, which isn’t damning, but it’s not good either. I’m going with Pittsburgh and hoping this is a field goal game. I like Houston to win, but getting Roethlisberger as an underdog is too good to pass on here especially with the line being higher than 3.

New Orleans Saints 31 Jacksonville Jaguars 16

Pick against spread: New Orleans +7.5 (-105) 2 units (+200)

This is one of those games where I’m going against the trends. The trends say Jacksonville is good as a home dog of 7+, going 2-0 ATS in the Jack Del Rio era in that situation. That’s only 2 games, but they’re 10-7 ATS as home dogs of any amount. Meanwhile, in the Sean Payton era, the Saints are 2-4 ATS as road favorites of 7+. However, the Saints are an offensive machine. Including the playoffs, they’ve scored 30+ in 9 of their last 12 games. Can the Jaguars score the 23 or 24+ points need to cover if the Saints score 30 or 31+. I don’t like their chances and I don’t like their chances of slowing the Saints’ offense, even on the road. I’m making a small play on the favorites here.

 

Minnesota Vikings 13 Kansas City Chiefs 10

Pick against spread: Minnesota -2 (-115) 1 unit (-115)

Chiefs. Vikings. The toilet bowl. Neither of these teams has won a game. One of them will win a game here and improve their combined record to 1-7. I really didn’t know who to pick here. The Vikings are a terrible team who doesn’t deserve to be favorites on the road, but at the same time, the Vikings have jumped out to early leads in all 3 of their games and blown them all three times. However, if they jump out to an early lead here, I highly doubt Matt Cassel will be able to lead the Chiefs back. There’s a difference between him, and Philip Rivers, Josh Freeman, and Matt Stafford, the first 3 quarterbacks the Vikings faced. One trend, Minnesota is coming off of a home loss of 3 or less, which means they’ll be extra motivated this week. Teams are 126-98 ATS in this situation since 2002. I’m taking the Vikings for 1 unit.

Philadelphia Eagles 20 San Francisco 49ers 16

Pick against spread: San Francisco +9 (-110) 3 units (+300)

Michael Vick is going to play in this game, but I don’t know if that’s as good as it sounds for the Eagles. They’re not going to give 100% effort against the lowly 49ers in this game unless they feel the need to rally around a backup quarterback. As long as Vick’s in the game, the 49ers will have the emotional edge. This game will mean more to them. Besides, Vick is playing terrible right now. He’s afraid to leave the pocket. He still can’t read blitzes and he could easily get hurt again this week, especially since San Francisco can get after the quarterback.

Besides, San Francisco leads the NFC in turnover margin. The Eagles are last in turnover margin and yet they’re favored here by 9 points. This would be a 4 or 5 unit pick, except for two things. One, the 49ers are a West Coast team playing a 1 PM ET start on the East Coast. However, they did win in this situation last week and they’re in their 2^nd consecutive road game, normally a lucrative betting situation (136-92 ATS since 2008). Teams are 60-49 ATS in the 2^nd straight game as a road dog after winning the first game straight up.

Also, the Eagles are good in the Andy Reid era off of a loss. This is a situation they’re 20-14 ATS in since Reid took over in 1999. However, I still like San Francisco’s chances to hang within a touchdown here. The Eagles have lost 5 of their last 6 games, including the playoffs. They’re very overvalued by Vegas.

St. Louis Rams 23 Washington Redskins 17 Upset Pick (+110)

Pick against spread: St. Louis +1 (+100) 2 units (-200)

There are conflicting situations here. On one hand, St. Louis is coming off a 21+ point ATS loss. They’re going to be playing for their dignity here. Teams in this situation are 159-125 ATS since 2002. However, Washington is coming off of a close road loss and in their 2^nd straight road game a situation teams are 45-34 in. I’m picking St. Louis here just because of the line. This line says the Redskins are 4 points better than the Rams and I don’t think it’s the case.

New York Giants 28 Arizona Cardinals 24

Pick against spread: NY Giants -1 (-110) 2 units (+200)

I thought the Giants were going to struggle in the first half of the season for the first time in the Tom Coughlin era this year after they lost to Washington in the opener. However, after beating St. Louis and Philadelphia, they’ve proven that false. They’re still a great team in the first half of the season. I like their chances to go into Arizona and make it 3 in a row. Their 4-2 ATS in the Tom Coughlin era after beating the Eagles and 13-6 ATS after a win against anyone as an underdog.

Atlanta Falcons 31 Seattle Seahawks 13

Pick against spread: Atlanta -5.5 (-110) 3 units (-330)

Arizona was -3 at Seattle last week and now Atlanta is -4.5. Huh? I know this line is -5.5 here because it’s a full point higher on Bodog than anywhere else, but everywhere else it’s -4.5. For my purposes, I don’t see much difference between -4.5 and -5.5. There aren’t a lot of 5 point games in this league and I still think Atlanta is being undervalued this week.

Why would they be undervalued? Well, people know they suck on the road and Seattle is good at home. That could have something to do with it. However, in the Mike Smith era the Falcons are 3-0 on the West Coast. They blew out Seattle last year in Seattle. Mike Smith is also 14-2 ATS off a loss with the Falcons and the Falcons are in their 2^nd straight road game, a situation teams are 136-92 ATS in since 2008. In the Mike Smith/Matt Ryan era, the Falcons are 7-2 ATS in that situation, 5-0 off a loss.

Green Bay Packers 35 Denver Broncos 13 Lock Pick

Pick against spread: Green Bay -13 (-110) 1 unit (+100)

Green Bay hasn’t played one truly dominant game yet this season and they’re 3-0. I wouldn’t want to be Denver coming to Lambeau this week. Denver sucks and though I normally don’t like betting on heavy favorites, I don’t think Green Bay has much trouble winning by multiple touchdowns this week. That’s all I have to say about that.

New England Patriots 38 Oakland Raiders 20

Pick against spread: New England -4.5 (-110) 5 units (+500)

Last week I bet pretty heavily on Baltimore as favorite in St. Louis because they were coming off a loss as a favorite and John Harbaugh is great in that situation as a coach. Bill Belichick is even better. Since being hired in 2000, BB is 16-9 ATS after a loss as a favorite. Even more important, he’s 14-5 ATS off a loss as a favorite if you exclude 2000, and 2008, the years someone other than Tom Brady was his starting quarterback. The Brady/Belichick combination is deadly off of a loss as a favorite. Straight up, they’re 15-3 and their wins are by an average of almost two touchdowns per game.

Belichick is also 31-18 ATS after a loss of any kind, 22-12 with Brady as his starting quarterback. They’re also 26-8 straight up off of a loss with Brady. No one is better than the Patriots off a loss. I normally don’t bet really heavily on a favorite of 3+. I’m doing that this week.

I also feel we’re getting excellent line value here. New England was -9 last week at Buffalo. Now they’re -4.5 at Oakland? Buffalo beat Oakland. I know the Patriots didn’t look all that great last week and the Raiders won, but I feel the Patriots are actually undervalued coming into this one and the Raiders are overvalued.

The Patriots lost a game last week that meant more to the Bills than it did to them. The Raiders won a game last week that meant more to them than the opponent Jets. The Jets were looking forward to Baltimore and New England in consecutive weeks coming up. The Raiders were looking to beat a quality team. That won’t be the case this week. This game will mean a lot to the Raiders, but it’ll mean a lot more to New England, who hates losing more than any other team in the league, as shown by their record after a loss, especially after a loss as a favorite, in the Belichick/Brady era.

San Diego Chargers 27 Miami Dolphins 24

Pick against spread: Miami +7 (-105) 4 units (-420)

Different year, same early season Chargers. They lost in New England week 2 despite fairly even yardage totals and then they barely beat the currently 0-3 Vikings and 0-3 Chiefs at home despite dominating the yardage totals. I don’t see why the 0-3 Dolphins can’t hang around as well. I mentioned last week I love betting on the Dolphins on the road. They’re 17-8 ATS on the road in the Tony Sparano era. That trend gets even better in their 2^nd straight road game. They’re 6-2 ATS in this situation since Sparano took over.

Besides, the early season Chargers should never be laying 7+. They’re just too mistake prone. One final thing, this line opened at -9 and was at -9 for a while and has dropped 2 full points since. The majority of the money was on Miami at -9 and Vegas changed the line pretty significantly. They don’t want people betting on Miami. For that reason, you should bet on Miami. I love Miami this week. The only huge difference between -9 and -7 is that a touchdown game pushes, which I’m fine with. There aren’t a lot of games decided by 8 or 9 points in this league.

Baltimore Ravens 16 New York Jets 14

Pick against spread: NY Jets +4 (-115) 3 units (-330)

The Jets didn’t look very good last week in Oakland, but that game didn’t mean a whole lot to them with Baltimore and New England next on their schedule, meanwhile the Ravens looked awesome last week trying to avenge a loss as a favorite in Tennessee the week before. Because of that, I think this line is a little skewed. These teams are about equal, but Vegas seems to have added another point to this line to make it -4 after last week.

Teams that lose as road favorites and then are road underdogs of more than 3 the next week are 19-12 ATS since 2002. This makes sense. A team is road favorites. That means they’re good. They lose straight up, so Vegas makes them underdogs of 3.5+ or more on the road the next week, which means Vegas sees them as inferior to another team, even though this might not necessarily be the case. They were good enough to be road favorites the week before right? Also, teams in their 2^nd straight road game tend to cover. Teams are 136-95 ATS in this situation since 2008. The 2^nd straight road game is typically not as tough as the first one. Besides, the Jets play a lot of field goal games.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 Indianapolis Colts 16

Pick against spread: Indianapolis (-110) 4 units (+400)

That awkward moment when the Colts are scheduled to have back-to-back nationally televised games and Peyton Manning doesn’t play in either. Actually, we all got a treat last week. Even though Manning didn’t play, the Colts’ defense played well enough to keep the Colts in the game as double digit home underdogs. Now they Colts are double digit road underdogs in Tampa Bay and I have reason to believe they can keep this one close as well.

The Colts are coming off of a close home loss. You’d think this would deflate them for their next game, but since 2002, teams are 126-98 ATS in this situation. Also, the Buccaneers just aren’t a team that can blow people out. Since the start of last season, they’ve won 12 games. 4 of them were by 11 or more points (what they’ll need to cover this spread). Those 4 games, Carolina twice, Seattle on the road, and San Francisco.

Are the Colts that bad? I don’t think so. They can still get after the quarterback. Curtis Painter will be starting at quarterback for them this week, but I think he plays a little better than he did last week in relief of Collins because he’ll have a whole week of practice to get ready for the Buccaneers. One final trends, teams in their 2^nd straight game as 10+ point underdogs are 31-23 ATS since 2002. The Colts have to be feeling disrespected right now.

Las Vegas Hilton Super Contest (for anyone playing): New England -4, Indianapolis +10, Atlanta -4.5, Miami +7, San Francisco +9.5 (8-7 on the season)