Spreads/Lines on betonline.com
Last week overall: 11-5
Last week ATS: 8-8 (+220/+4 units)
Overall picks: 42-22 (.656)
ATS Picks: 33-29-2 (+1300/+17 units)
Survivor picks: 4-0 (NE, PIT, BAL, GB)
Upset picks: 5-9 (-160)
I didn’t go +27 units for the week like week 3 or anything, but it was my 2nd straight week making money and allowed me to add to my total. I went 2-1 with my 3 highest picks, including nailing my 5 unit pick. I split my 4 3 unit picks, so really that 5 unit pick (New England) was the difference. I didn’t particularly post a high record, 8-8, but I did enough to finish up 4 units for the week, on the strong of my 5 unit pick. I also finished 11-5 straight up for the week, bringing my winning percentage for the season to .656. I split a pair of small upset picks, as well, though I do have some bigger upset picks for this week.
Buffalo Bills 27 Philadelphia Eagles 24 Upset Pick (+120)
Pick against spread: Buffalo +3 (-125) 4 units (+400)
Buffalo can’t seem to get any respect from Vegas. Meanwhile, Philadelphia can’t seem to lose it. Well, maybe it’s not Vegas not giving them Bills respect or disrespecting the Eagles, but rather the public doing either of those things and Vegas capitalizing. The money is on Philadelphia this week, but it’s close.
Buffalo had some respect last week as road favorites in Cincinnati, but they were flat after beating the Patriots for the first time in 16 tries the week before as big home underdogs. Now they come back home and are underdogs to the 1-3 Eagles.
Meanwhile, the Eagles have been 9 point home favorites in each of the past two weeks, first to the Giants after an ugly win on Monday Night Football, then to the 49ers. They lost both of those games straight up and now they’re 3 point favorites in Buffalo. What that’s saying is that this line would be -9 in Philadelphia, basically saying Buffalo no better or even worse than San Francisco or the Giants (remember, they didn’t look good coming into that game). We’re getting tremendous line value here.
Besides, road favorites who lose straight up are 40-28 ATS as dogs the next week since 2002. They were good enough to be road favorites a week ago, so they’re obviously a good team, but Vegas still has them as underdogs. There’s value in betting on teams in this situation, especially when the opponent is coming off a loss as a home favorite (5-1 ATS).
Philadelphia, meanwhile, could be caught looking forward to Washington next week. Favorites are 43-67 ATS the week before being divisional dogs since 2008. Will Philadelphia be a dog in Washington next week? Maybe, especially if they lose here and head into 3-1 Washington at 1-4. Either way, you know that game against Washington is going to be huge for Philadelphia, so this game might not mean as much to them as it does to Buffalo, who has something to prove once more after losing to the lowly Bengals and returning home to be home dogs to a 1-3 “dream team.”
The reasons this isn’t a 5 unit pick are 2. One, this feels like a trap line. Sometimes when something seems too good to be true, it normally is. Philadelphia might feel they need this win to safe their season at 1-3 and Andy Reid is 14-9 ATS off a loss as a home favorite since he took over in 1999 (this trend failed last week). I still like Buffalo, but only for 4 units.
Two final notes: first, the Trent Cole and Jason Peters injuries are going to be huge. Neither are expected to play in this one. Both are huge parts of this team, but the line doesn’t seem to take that into account. Second, Philadelphia has the worst turnover ratio in the NFC, 2nd worst in the league (-6) behind Pittsburgh. Last week they played San Francisco, who is tied with Detroit for the best turnover ratio in the league (+8). This week they play Buffalo, who is first in the AFC, 2nd in the league with a -7 turnover ratio. Turnovers swing games and they aren’t as completely unpredictable as people would have you believe.
New Orleans Saints 34 Carolina Panthers 24
Pick against spread: New Orleans -6 (-115) 2 units (-230)
We should just start calling Cam Newton the king of backdoor covers. As Bill Simmons says, there’s no one he’d rather have at quarterback down two scores needing a “meaningless” score for a backdoor cover. Cammy Cam came through last week as 7 point underdogs in Chicago. Can he come through again here at home as 6 point home dogs against New Orleans? Maybe, but there are some trends working against him.
New Orleans is in their 2nd straight road game. Teams in their 2nd straight road game are 141-100 ATS since 2008, 35-19 ATS after covering in their first road game. Meanwhile, Carolina is home divisional dogs, a situation teams are actually just 50-62 ATS in since 2008. Breaking that down further, teams are 20-32 ATS as home divisional dogs the week before being road divisional dogs (Atlanta next week). They might be more focused on having to go to Atlanta than on the Saints, though I’m not 100% sure I agree that will be in play here.
I’m much more focused on the Saints being in their 2nd straight road game after covering as favorites in their first. This is a good New Orleans team that can beat up on Carolina’s poor secondary. Newton will have some yardage time scores, but I still like New Orleans’ chances to cover here given that the spread isn’t 7+. You need to worry more about someone like Newton when the line is 7+.
Oakland Raiders 23 Houston Texans 20 Upset Pick (+200)
Pick against spread: Oakland +6 (-115) 3 units (+300)
Andre Johnson hasn’t been ruled out for this game, but he’s very unlikely to go. That’s huge, obviously. I don’t know that this line properly reflects that. Besides, Houston could be in a flat situation. They just beat Pittsburgh at home last week and head to Baltimore next week. In the Gary Kubiak era, the Texans are 12-19 ATS off of a win and, for whatever reason, teams are a mere 17-35 ATS off of a win against Pittsburgh since 2002. For the record, that’s the worst winning percentage after beating any team in that span.
As for that upcoming Baltimore game, favorites before a game in which they will be a dog of 3+ in are 106-150 ATS since 2008. The logic is simple. You have an opponent who is as good or better than you coming up. You won’t be as focused for an inferior opponent, especially one who is coming off of a loss (56-84 ATS). Houston heads to Baltimore next week. Vegas had Houston at -4 at home over Pittsburgh, which says they’re 1 point better than Pittsburgh. Since Baltimore beat Pittsburgh, Houston is likely going to be at least +3 at Baltimore next week.
Besides, Houston doesn’t seem to have stopped shooting themselves in the foot. They blew a lead against New Orleans week 3 and should have blown out Pittsburgh last week. They had 9 penalties, 8 in the first half, and dominated the first half time of possession battle 21-9. Pittsburgh didn’t even get the ball until 4 minutes left in the first because Houston ran a 115 yard drive (thanks to penalties) to score on the opening possession of the game. I don’t trust a team that constantly shoots themselves in the foot when the trends are all going against them, especially without their best player.
Update: I’m putting a unit on Oakland to pull off the upset +200, in the wake of Al Davis’ death. I think they have a huge game in the memory of their owner and that pushes a close game in their favor against a Houston team that struggles in close games historically.
Indianapolis Colts 20 Kansas City Chiefs 13
Pick against spread: Indianapolis -1.5 (-120) 2 units (-240)
Can you win MVP if you don’t play a down? Peyton Manning has led the Colts to 10+ wins every year since 2002, and 12+ in every season since 2002 except last year. He gets hurt and now the Colts are 0-4. However, they have their best chance to win a game here against Kansas City. Kansas City is 1-3, with one home win against the 0-4 Vikings.
I think people are overreacting to the Colts. They’re not going to be a 1 or 2 win team like some are predicting. They have offensive playmakers and the best 4-3 bookend defensive ends in the league. They had a tough first 4 games with Houston (3-1), Cleveland (2-2), Pittsburgh (2-2), Tampa Bay (3-1). They hung within a touchdown of Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and Tampa Bay and Curtis Painter looked decent against Tampa Bay despite making his first career start on the road on Monday Night. He’ll be even better with another week here at home against the lowly Chiefs.
This line says the Chiefs are 1.5 points better than the Colts. I disagree with this. Besides, 0-4 teams are 23-11 ATS since 2000. Teams who are 0-4 or worse are 10-5 ATS as favorites since 2002. The Colts are a veteran squad playing for pride here. They should be able to eke out a win here. Curtis Painter is getting better at quarterback and the Colts are devalued because of their record, despite a tough schedule.
Besides, the Chiefs aren’t a good road team. Winning at home is one thing, but I don’t think they can get a road win here. Including last week, this team is 8-2 straight up at home in the regular season, whereas they are 3-7 straight up on the home in the regular season. This line is small enough for something like that to matter.
Cincinnati Bengals 20 Jacksonville Jaguars 9 Upset Pick (+120) 5 units (+600)
Pick against spread: Cincinnati +1.5 (+100) 0 units
This is exactly the type of situation Jacksonville struggles in, especially lately. Since 2008, Jacksonville is 10-23 ATS against non-divisional opponents and 4-11 ATS as home favorites. They’re also 4-9 ATS as favorites before a game in which they will be underdogs in that same time span, since 2008. They head to Pittsburgh next week so they’ll be more focused on that than lowly Cincinnati.
Meanwhile, Cincinnati is 18-11 ATS as an underdog off a win since Marvin Lewis took over, including 9-2 in that situation in their last 11 instances (since 2008). As an underdog in general, Cincinnati is 20-13 ATS since 2008.
Besides, I don’t really agree with this line. This line says these two teams are essentially equal. I think Cincinnati is the better team right now and I’m very happy to bet against a terrible team like Jacksonville as favorites, regardless of how bad they’ve been in this situation since 2008. As long as Cincinnati is not flat off of that comeback win against Buffalo (road dogs coming off a 1-3 point home win as home dogs are 11-26 ATS since 2002), Cincinnati should be fine here.
I’m not ignoring that trend, but I think the other trends are more powerful and more specific. While the league as a whole struggles in a situation like this, there are many situations Cincinnati is in now that they specifically have done well in under Marvin Lewis, as well as many situations Jacksonville is in now that they typically struggle in. Besides, the Bengals did cover against in this exact situation in 2009 against Baltimore. And for the record, the Bengals are 6-3 ATS in their last 9 after a 3 point or fewer win.
I’m doing something different here this week. I like Cincinnati to win straight up so instead of putting 4 units on the spread line +1.5 (+100) and one straight up on the money line +120, I’m just going to put 5 on the money line. The only way this can backfire is if Jacksonville wins by 1, but that doesn’t happen very often. Roughly 4% of games are decided by 1 point, so sticking with straight probability, the odds that Jacksonville wins by 1 here are 2% (and 2% than Cincinnati does the same). I’m not paying the extra 20 dollars (per 100) for insurance against a something that happens about 1 time in 50. For the future, I will do this when betting the underdog on a line of 1.5 or less.
Arizona Cardinals 23 Minnesota Vikings 20 Upset Pick (+120) 2 units (-200)
Pick against spread: Arizona +1.5 (+105) 0 units
This was a tough one for me. On one hand, Minnesota is 0-4 and playing for pride. 0-4 teams are 23-11 ATS since 2000, even more surprisingly, they are 10-5 as favorites in that stretch. On the other hand, they could be looking forward to Chicago more than they are focused for this game. Favorites before a game in which they are going to be underdogs are 43-67 ATS since 2008. When they are going to be underdogs of 3+, they are 36-56 ATS and when they are going to be underdogs of 7+, they are 9-19 ATS. Minnesota goes to Chicago next week and will be at least +3, probably +7 in that game.
So what’s the tiebreaker here? The line. Is Arizona as bad as or almost as bad as Minnesota (-1.5 line with -125)? I don’t agree with that. Minnesota is 0-4 and has blown big leads in 3 of their first 4 games. The Cardinals are 1-3, but their 3 losses were in Seattle (tough place to play), on the East Coast at 1 PM ET at the now 3-1 Redskins, and a close loss to the now 3-1 Giants. Neither team is very good, but the Cardinals are better so I’m taking them. Like the Cincinnati/Jacksonville game, I’m putting two units on the money line instead of one on the money line +120 and one on the spread 1.5 +105. I don’t need protection from a 1 point Minnesota win (2% likelihood).
New York Giants 34 Seattle Seahawks 13 Survivor Pick (4-0, NE, PIT, BAL, GB)
Pick against spread: NY Giants -9.5 (-110) 4 units (-440)
I normally don’t like betting heavily on double digit favorites (9.5 is close), but there’s just too many trends to ignore this week. Seattle absolutely sucks on the road. They’re 13-32 ATS since 2006 on the road, 1-7 ATS as 10+ point underdogs (again 9.5 is close). They’ve lost all 8 of those games, by an average of 20.8 points per game. There’s no way I’m betting on Seattle on the road, especially on the East Coast at a 1 PM ET start.
Besides, I think we’re getting excellent line value here. Seattle was double touchdown underdogs in Pittsburgh week 2. Pittsburgh was coming off a 28 point loss against Baltimore. Are the Giants really 5 points worse than the Steelers were week 2? The Giants are 3-1 right now and are continuing their early season dominance. They’ve always played well in the first half of the season under Tom Coughlin. In fact, they’re 36-19 ATS in weeks 1-8 since Coughlin took over in 2004. I don’t think the Giants should have any problem beating the Seahawks by 10+. They’re also my survivor pick of the week (I’ve used New England at Miami, Pittsburgh vs. Seattle, Baltimore at St. Louis, and Green Bay vs. Denver already).
Pittsburgh Steelers 20 Tennessee Titans 19
Pick against spread: Tennessee +4 (-110) 1 unit (-110)
This was the toughest one for me. The Steelers are playing bad football right now and I had them overrated coming into the season, but it seems like the oddsmakers are catching up. I was expecting them to be something like -7 here at home for Tennessee, but they are -4. I don’t think there’s any value with that anymore because I don’t know how good Tennessee is.
Tennessee is on a 3 game winning streak, but those 3 wins were a flat Baltimore off a win against Pittsburgh, Denver who could have beaten them had they kicked a chip field goal instead of gone for it on 4th and goal with the lead, and Cleveland. Chris Johnson is not running well and without Kenny Britt, Hasselbeck doesn’t have a lot to work with in the receiving corps. Their defense doesn’t generate a consistent pass rush either so Big Ben won’t be under fire quite as much this week.
I still want to take Tennessee, but only for a unit. There’s no value in this line and Pittsburgh has looked really good in their only home game, albeit against Seattle. I just don’t want to bet Pittsburgh as favorites of more than 3 against a team in Tennessee that might actually be pretty good. Two trends, home favorites coming off of a loss as road underdogs are 63-75 ATS since 2008. Pittsburgh is 1-3 ATS in this situation under Mike Tomlin.
Secondly, Tennessee is in their 2nd straight road game as dogs after covering in the first. Teams in this situation are 98-69 ATS since 2002. They’re also going in their bye week. Teams in general do better going into their bye week, but teams in their 2nd straight road game as dogs after covering in the first are 9-4 ATS heading into a bye.
Also, injuries could be a factor here. Big Ben will probably play banged up. James Harrison is out with a broken face. Rashard Mendenhall has a hamstring problem and will probably be a game time decision and he’d be limited if he could play. However, I worry about a proud, well coached veteran team in Pittsburgh in a game that they might see as must win.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 San Francisco 49ers 17 Upset Pick (+115) 2 units (-200)
Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +1.5 (+100) 0 units
There are conflicting situations here. On one hand, Tampa Bay has New Orleans next week, while San Francisco is coming off of a close (1-3) road win as an underdog. Both situations are situations teams would be flat in as favorites, so before the line was released I just decided I was going to take the points. In this case, that’s Tampa Bay.
San Francisco won as 9 point underdogs on the road last week by 3 or fewer. That’s a tough spot returning home to be favorites. Teams are just 23-40 ATS in this situation since 2002, 21-33 ATS when they were dogs are 3+, and 4-9 ATS as dogs of 7+, which San Francisco was. This even applies when the team is favorites of less than 3. Teams in this situation are 5-8 ATS off of a close win as a road favorite. For that reason, I’m taking Tampa Bay.
I also like we’re getting points with Tampa Bay on the road. Tampa Bay was 6-2 on the road last year, as opposed to 4-4 at home, and they’re already 1-0 on the road this year (albeit in Minnesota). Besides, Tampa Bay is a team who beats up on bad teams. They only have 1 loss to a team with a .500 record or worse in the past 2 seasons. San Francisco is 3-1 now, but they could finish this season 8-8 or so, so this is sort of in play. On top of this, this line says these two are about equal, which I don’t agree with, and that’s not taking into account how good Tampa Bay is on the road.
The reason I’m not making a big play on Tampa Bay is because they play New Orleans next week. Favorites are 43-67 ATS since 2008 the week before they are divisional dogs. I know Tampa Bay is not favorites here, but that New Orleans game is going to be on their mind. Road dogs are 46-46 ATS since 2008 in that situation, which isn’t a trend, but road dogs of 3+ are 43-40 ATS in that situation, which means road dogs of less than 3 are 3-6 ATS before a game in which they are divisional dogs.
Trace this back to 2002, road dogs in general are 122-159 in this situation, but 112-139 when they’re dogs of 3+, which means road dogs of less than 3 are 10-20 ATS before a divisional games since 2002. This makes sense. Road dogs of less than 3 are considered the better team by Vegas. Tampa Bay probably sees San Francisco as an inferior opponent and won’t give 100% before New Orleans next week.
Also, assuming you can do math, you can probably see that betting against teams (favorites or dogs) before games in which they are going to be divisional dogs is pretty lucrative. Since 2008, teams are 123-151 ATS in this situation and 349-451 ATS since 2002. Basically, there’s a lot of conflicting stuff. Both teams could be down this week, but I’m going with Tampa Bay because they’re a good road team and I think the better team.
Like with Arizona/Minnesota and Jacksonville/Cincinnati, I’m betting two on the money line here instead of betting one on the money line and one on the spread. I’ve already explained my logic here.
San Diego Chargers 27 Denver Broncos 20
Pick against spread: San Diego -4.5 (+100) 1 unit (+100)
This was a tough one. Both teams are heading into their byes and teams tend to do better when they’re heading into their bye. Favorites are 91-73 ATS going into their bye since 2002. Underdogs are 92-80 in that situation in that same time period. Teams tend to be more focused heading into their bye than most, but that nullifies here because both teams are heading into their bye.
I was honestly hoping San Diego would be favorites of 7+ this week. Favorites of 7+ are a whopping 41-15 ATS heading into a bye in the regular season. Good teams are focused heading into their bye and almost always cover. However, I guess Vegas didn’t agree that San Diego should have been 7 point favorites here and I can understand why. San Diego just isn’t that good early in the season.
I’m putting a small bet on San Diego for three reasons. One, favorites are slightly better than underdogs heading into byes. Two, divisional home dogs are 50-62 ATS since 2008. That’s not the strongest trend, but this isn’t a big bet either. Finally, Denver’s a mess right now. San Diego can definitely do something similar to what Green Bay did last week to Denver if they don’t shoot themselves in the foot. Even if they do, I can’t Denver keeping this within 4.
New England Patriots 34 New York Jets 17
Pick against spread: New England -9 (-110) 1 unit (+0)
Jets. Pats. Again. If history is any indication, the Patriots are going to win here. Since Rex Ryan took over the Jets in 2009, the Jets are 2-3 straight up against the Patriots, but neither team has won 2 in a row in that stretch. These two coaches are the best in the business in revenge type situations. Both coaches make excellent adjustments, learn from their mistakes well, and are especially great at motivating their teams in revenge games. New York won in the playoffs last year. Now it’s New England’s turn.
Besides, no one has beaten the Patriots at home in the regular season in over 3 years. I know the Jets did it in the playoffs last year, but this is the regular season now and I don’t think this is the same Jets team. The Patriots have scored 30+ in 12 straight regular season games. I don’t think the Jets can score that many to keep up with them, especially not with how their offense looked last week. The Jets did hold them to 21 in the playoffs last year, in a 28-21 win, but that was the combination of luck and the right personnel. That doesn’t happen very often.
Well the Jets get the same breaks they did against New England last year? Maybe, but the truth is, it’s not the same personnel. This Jets defense isn’t as good as it was last year. I don’t think they can hold New England under 30, especially since Belichick’s the one with the revenge factor here now.
The line here is 9. Can the Jets keep this a 31-24 or 34-27 game? I think they can. The Patriots defense isn’t great so Sanchez won’t be nearly as bad as he was last week, but do I really want to bet on that after what he did last week? Nick Mangold either won’t play or won’t be 100% here, which really hurts the Jets as they go up against Vince Wilfork.
Besides, in addition to neither team having ever won back-to-back in this series since Rex Ryan took over, neither team has covered back-to-back in this series since Rex Ryan took over. Lastly, the Patriots are still going to be motivated after that loss to Buffalo. Tom Brady doesn’t forget very easily. The smart money is on this being a blowout, but I’m only putting 1 unit on it.
Atlanta Falcons 31 Green Bay Packers 28 Upset Pick (+220)
Pick against spread: Atlanta +6 (-110) 4 units (-440)
I guess you could say this is the rubber match. After the Falcons won by a field goal over the Packers in Atlanta in the regular season last year, the Packers responded with a 48-21 upset win over the Falcons in Atlanta in the NFC Semis, en route to their Super Bowl win. The Falcons didn’t look great on the road in the past two weeks, losing in Tampa Bay and then barely winning by 2 over the lowly Seahawks last week. However, now they’re back home, where Matt Ryan is 17-8 ATS in his career (4-0 as a home dog).
I think Atlanta is being undervalued here. They haven’t looked good in their past 2, but they never look good on the road. They’re a mere 2-2 this season and barely beat Seattle, but they’ve only played one home game and they won it in a similar situation, home dogs against Eagles. As long as we’re getting more than a field goal with Atlanta, I’m taking it. Matt Ryan has covered in 4 of his last 5 instances as a dog. Besides, this line says Green Bay is 9 points better than Atlanta. I don’t agree with that, especially considering that Atlanta should get more than 3 points for playing in Atlanta.
Besides, since 2008, the Falcons are 17-8 ATS off of a road game, 9-2 ATS when they failed to cover. In general, they are 15-4 ATS off a game in which they didn’t cover. I was going to put 5 units on Atlanta here, until I thought twice and decided, maybe betting 5 units against Aaron Rodgers isn’t a good idea. 4 units it is. I really have a good feeling about Atlanta here. This is a big revenge game for them and this game means more to them than the Green Bay as the 2-2 Falcons are fighting for respect and potentially for their season.
Detroit Lions 31 Chicago Bears 17
Pick against spread: Detroit -6 (-105) 2 units
This is Detroit’s first Monday Night game in over a decade. This game is huge for the team. You know they circled this one on the schedule before the season. They’re going to be giving 110% to win here. There’s a small trend that goes along with this. Monday Night home favorites are 32-25 ATS since 2002 off of a win. That’s not a strong trend or anything, but common sense tells you that Detroit is going to be giving 110% this week.
Chicago should be too. Green Bay and Detroit are at 4-0. They’re at 2-2. If they lose here, they could be as many as 3 games back of 2 different teams. They’re season could be on the line here. However, I’m taking the favorites for a small bet. I really like Detroit to get to 5-0 and cover here on MNF. Besides, I love getting Detroit’s defensive line against Chicago’s miserable offensive line.
LV Hilton Super Contest Picks (for anyone playing): Atlanta +6, Cincinnati +2.5, Buffalo +2.5, NY Giants -9.5, Oakland +5.5
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