Spreads/Lines on betonline.com
Last week overall: 9-4
Last week ATS: 3-9-1 (-2210/-20 units)
Overall picks: 59-31 (.656)
Upset Picks: 1-3 (-115/-2 units)
ATS Picks: 41-45-4 (-1370/-6 units)
Survivor picks: 5-1 (NE, PIT, BAL, GB, NYG, PHI)
Upset picks: 9-15 (+145/-3 unit)
Recap: I sucked last week. This is a weird year. Experts who are normally making money are losing money this year. I think it’s lockout related, along with the NFL’s bullshit rule changes (kickoff rule, 4 days no practice after a bye week). I’m not really sure what to do about it except hope it turns around for me. I’ve had some good weeks this year, including my best week ever week 3 when made about $2000. Unfortunately, I lost all of that last week. One change I have made is I’m using trends dating back to 2008 instead of 2002 when there’s enough data, so we’ll see if that works.
Also, I lost both of my 5 unit picks after being perfect in that department all season. The Colts were one of my 5 unit picks and they were trailing by 3 with the ball with about 2 minutes left as 7 point underdogs when Pierre Garcon stupidly decided to lateral the ball, which was recovered by Carlos Dunlap for the cover clinching score. That’s a $1050 swing there.
Miami was my other 5 unit pick as 7 point underdogs in New York. Darrelle Revis had a pick six in the red zone on what should have been pass interference. That’s a 10 point swing right there at least. Later, Brandon Marshall randomly fell out of bounds with an easy touchdown in front of him and then dropped another touchdown in the end zone as Miami had to settle for 3. That’s 14 points right there that the Dolphins should have had. They lost 24-6. They should have lost 24-20 and covered. That was an $1100 swing there for me. I would have had $2150 more if stupid shit didn’t happen. Sometimes I hate football.
Plus, it’s not like I got the games completely wrong. I was 9-4 straight up after all. Let’s try to earn that money back. Here we go.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26 Chicago Bears 23
Pick against spread: Tampa Bay -1 (-110) 1 unit (-110)
This is the NFL’s annual stupid London game where they force two teams to fly to another country where they don’t even like football to play in some shitty stadium. This is technically a home game for Tampa Bay, but they’re obviously not at home, which makes it even more stupid. Tampa Bay essentially will be playing 7 home games and 9 road games this year, which, I guess since no one ever goes to Buccaneers’ home games, shouldn’t affect them that much.
I feel like Tampa Bay is the right side here. Aside from that fluke loss in San Francisco, this has been a good team for the past roughly year, since a 38-13 loss to New Orleans week 6 of 2010. They’re 11-6 in that stretch and have only lost by more than a touchdown once (San Francisco). More importantly, they know how to finish games. I like betting against Jay Cutler, who has a fairly poor career ATS record (27-47 ATS), and I like betting against him against a team that knows how to finish games, especially when it’s a pretty even line. Also, Tampa Bay has played in England before for what that’s worth. There are no trends to back me up here and I think this could be a close game, so this is only a 1 unit pick.
Carolina Panthers 23 Washington Redskins 20
Pick against spread: Carolina -2.5 (-110) 1 unit (+100)
Cam Newton is 4-1-1 ATS on the season and thus his career, but this is only his 2nd game as a favorite. He won his first game as a favorite over Jacksonville, bucking Carolina’s 18-28 ATS record since 2002 as a home favorite of 3+. Can he do it again here? Well, he’s got some trends to work against. Since 2010, teams in the 1st of 2 home games are 46-64 ATS. Teams in the 1st of 2 home games as favorites are 19-35 ATS. Carolina has the lowly Vikings coming to town next week, where they will almost definitely be favorites.
Also, both of these teams are coming off of divisional losses as dogs. Since 2008, there have been 18 matchups of 2 teams both coming off a loss divisional loss as dogs. The underdog has covered in 11 of those 18, 9 of 14 since 2009. However, Washington looked terrible last week. Rex Grossman, who had gotten worse in every game to that point, threw 4 picks and was rightfully benched for John Beck. I’m not sure how much of an upgrade John Beck will actually be. This line isn’t higher than 3 so we still have protection against Carolina winning by a field goal. I’m taking the favorite for 1 unit.
Cleveland Browns 20 Seattle Seahawks 16
Pick against spread: Cleveland -3 (+100) 1 unit (+0)
The trends go in Seattle’s favor. Cleveland is a favorite coming off of a loss as an underdog before being an underdog (they go to San Francisco next week). Teams in that situation are 42-66 ATS since 2008. It’s called a sandwich game. Teams are also 7-14 ATS when all 3 of the games in the sandwich are non-divisional. The Browns are also a mere 3-7 ATS as favorite since 2008. Meanwhile, the Seahawks rode a win as double digit underdogs against New York into a bye. Since 1989, only 6 teams have won as dogs of 10+ before a bye (6-40 straight up). Of those 6 teams, 5 covered after the bye.
However, I’m not ready to bet Seattle on the road yet. They looked good there in New York before the bye, but they’re a pitiful 8-20 ATS on the road since 2008. We still get field goal protection with Cleveland, meaning if Seattle can keep this within a field goal, I don’t lose. Given that, I’m taking the favorite for 1 unit.
Detroit Lions 27 Atlanta Falcons 20
Pick against spread: Detroit -3.5 (-110) 2 units (-220)
Detroit is perfect no longer after San Francisco came into Detroit and beat them. Detroit lost last week as favorites and some coaches are really good after losing as a favorite. Jim Schwartz? Well, we’ll call it inconclusive. He’s 0-1 ATS after a loss as a favorite. The Lions don’t have a lot of experience losing as favorites in recent years.
However, I still like Detroit to bounce back here. Atlanta is 1-2 on the road this year, with that one win coming by 2 in Seattle. They also haven’t won back to back games all year. I also think this line is wrong. Detroit is only .5 points better than Atlanta? Huh? Detroit may have lost last week, but they’re still 5-1. Meanwhile, before the Falcons blew out the lowly Panthers, could have easily been 1-4 with that one win coming by 2 over Seattle had Michael Vick not gotten hurt when Philly came to Atlanta. There’s no huge trends here, but I think Detroit is the right side for 2 units.
Denver Broncos 23 Miami Dolphins 12 Upset Pick (+115)
Pick against spread: Denver +1 (-105) 5 units (+500)
The Dolphins absolutely suck. All the angles said the Jets would come out flat last week and they did. The Dolphins still lost by 18. Their defense can’t get any pressure, their defensive backs can’t cover, and their receivers can’t catch anything, assuming quarterback Matt Moore even throws the ball accurately. But other than that, they’re pretty good.
Obviously, I love the idea of getting them as favorites. This line suggests that Denver is only 2 points better than Miami. I find that ridiculous, especially with how much better Denver looked against San Diego after they put in Tim Tebow. Tebow will start here.
The Broncos are also coming off a bye which should help them. Teams coming off of a bye last week were 1-5 straight up, but that’s a little misleading. All 5 of the teams that lost were underdogs, while the one win (Baltimore over Houston), was as a favorite. The five losses were Dallas at New England, Washington at Philadelphia, Miami at New York, Cleveland at Oakland, and St. Louis at Green Bay. Seems like in all 5 of those cases, the better team won. I think Denver is the better team here.
Meanwhile, I expect the Dolphins to be flat this week. Teams are 26-44 ATS since 2002 after a MNF loss of 14+, 8-24 ATS as favorites the next week. The Dolphins are also in a sandwich game situation. They’re favorites here before being dogs (@ NY Giants next week) and after losing as dogs. Teams are 42-66 ATS in this situation since 2008, 16-26 ATS after a divisional loss. Here’s an interesting trend. Since 2002, teams are 2-10 ATS as favorites after losing straight up by 14+ on MNF as dogs, before being dogs the next week.
Finally, I love betting against the Dolphins at home. They’re 1-9 straight up in their last 10 home games and 7-20 ATS at home since Tony Sparano took over in 2008, 1-11 ATS as home favorites. They’re actually a whopping 3-13 ATS as favorites in general in the Tony Sparano era. Besides, this team has quit. I love being able to bet against them as favorites. Give me 5 units on Tebow and company.
San Diego Chargers 23 New York Jets 20
Pick against spread: San Diego -1 (-120) 1 unit (-120)
This was a tough one. The Jets should be riding an emotional high after last week. Teams that a win a divisional MNF game by 14+ are 22-10 ATS in the next week since 2002, but it’s hard to say they looked good on Monday Night. The Dolphins just looked terrible and the Jets didn’t even surpass 300 yards of offense after failing to do the same the week before against New England’s miserable defense. It took them until their 5th drive to even get a first down.
Meanwhile, Philip Rivers is 11-6 ATS in his career as an underdog, but 10-4 ATS as an underdog against anyone other than Tom Brady. He’s not an underdog here, but he’s close to being one as mere 1 point favorites. For the record, Rivers is 2-1 ATS in his career as favorites of 3 or less. However, the Chargers could still be in early season form. They’ve had trouble with Kansas City, Minnesota, Denver, hell even Miami. Taking the early season Chargers as favorites traveling 3 time zones (even though this isn’t a 1 PM start) against a Jets team that could be on an emotional high is scary, but I feel like San Diego is the right side. I’m taking them, but only for 1 unit.
Houston Texans 27 Tennessee Titans 20 Upset Pick (+160)
Pick against spread: Houston +3 (+100) 3 units (+300)
Houston hasn’t looked great in the past 2 weeks, losing to Oakland and Baltimore without Andre Johnson. They’ve also lost Mario Williams on defense for the season, so they’re hardly at 100%. Andre Johnson is not expected back for this game. However, I still like Houston here. I think Tennessee is incredibly overrated. They beat Baltimore week 2 when Baltimore was flat off a huge win against Pittsburgh. Then they beat the lowly Broncos and the lowly Browns and the Steelers put them in their place week 5, destroying them 38-17. This line suggests that Houston and Tennessee are equal. That’s wrong.
On top of that, the Texans are 31-16 ATS all-time after two straight losses. Also, Tennessee is in their first 2 of home games, a situation teams are 46-64 ATS in since 2010. They’re also likely in their first of two home games as favorites, with Indy coming to town next week. Teams in that situation are 19-35 ATS since 2010.
Meanwhile, the Texans are in their 2nd straight road game, a situation teams are 142-104 ATS in since 2008. Teams are 69-42 ATS in their 2nd straight road game as a dog, 46-27 ATS in their 2nd straight road game as a dog after losing as a dog in the first. Gary Kubiak is 6-2 ATS in his straight road game as a dog after a loss. In general, since Kubiak took over in 2006, the Texans are 10-4 ATS in their 2nd straight road game. I’m worried about betting on a banged up team which is why this is not a 4 or 5 unit bet, but I do really like Houston in this situation.
Arizona Cardinals 24 Pittsburgh Steelers 17 Upset Pick (+160)
Pick against spread: Arizona +3.5 (-115) 4 units (-460)
All the Steelers have to do is win by 4? Easy money! Right? Not so fast. Remember, the Cardinals have several former Pittsburgh assistants on their staff. Head coach Ken Whisenhunt is a former Steelers offensive coordinator. Russ Grimm, the Cardinals’ offensive line coach, held the same position with the Steelers. Also, Cardinals defensive coordinator Ray Horton is a former Steelers’ defensive backs coach. They’ll definitely have the inside track as far as preparation goes here.
On top of that, they’ll be more focused than the Steelers. The Cardinals are coming out of a bye, looking to end a long losing streak, a situation teams do well in. Meanwhile, the Steelers play the Patriots next week, looking for big revenge. Favorites before being dogs are 59-73 ATS in 2010, but a mere 10-20 ATS as road favorites, and 6-10 ATS as road favorites after being favorites the week before. Besides, the Steelers have shown struggles against weaker opponents this year. They barely beat Indianapolis and then they took their foot off the gas against Jacksonville last week after getting a big lead early, hanging on to win 17-13.
On top of this, the Steelers struggle on the road as favorites in the Mike Tomlin era. As favorites of 3+ on the road, they’re 7-13 ATS since Tomlin took over in 2007. Conversely, the Cardinals play well as home dogs in the Ken Whisenhunt era, 10-4 ATS in this situation. Finally, I like the line movement here. The line opened at -4, then went to -3.5, then went to -3.5 with extra juice and this is in spite of the fact that the public is betting the Steelers. Vegas wants people to bet on the Steelers.
Oakland Raiders 20 Kansas City Chiefs 14
Pick against spread: Oakland -3.5 (-115) 1 unit (-115)
Jason Campbell is done for the season, but the Raiders have acquired Carson Palmer, who is at least no worse than Campbell. However, there’s a lot of conflicting angles in this game. The Chiefs are in their 2nd straight road game, a situation that normally is lucrative to bet on. However, they’ve had a bye in between. This isn’t a problem as teams in their 2nd straight road game with a bye in between are 7-3 ATS since 2008. The Chiefs are also 22-15 ATS as road dogs since 2006, the same stretch of time in which the Raiders are 2-10 ATS as favorites. Finally, the Raiders are a mere 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games against Kansas City.
However, a weird and specific trend, teams in the 2nd or 3 road games with a bye week in between the 2nd and 3rd are 15-6 ATS since 2002. Oakland is in this situation. Plus, Oakland is on 7 game divisional winning streak. Finally, this line hasn’t moved from -3.5 since Palmer has been acquired so we’re getting excellent line value. I’m making this a one unit pick in favor of the Raiders because I don’t want to bet heavily on a team who just woke their starting quarterback up from retirement, especially since Palmer won’t have even been with the organization for a week. Also, Kansas City does have trends in their favor. I just like the line value is too good to pass on.
Dallas Cowboys 24 St. Louis Rams 23
Pick against spread: St. Louis +13 (-105) 6 units (-630)
Good news and bad news for the Rams here. The good news is they traded for Brandon Lloyd. Lloyd was the league’s leading receiver in 2010 under Head Coach Josh McDaniels, who happens to be the offensive coordinator in St. Louis now. The bad news is that the guy who was supposed to throw Lloyd the ball, Sam Bradford, is expected out with a high ankle sprain. It’s not confirmed that Bradford will be out, but it seems very unlikely he’ll play. Vegas hasn’t even bothered taking this line down, instead letting it jump from 10 to 13 to make up for Bradford’s absence.
I loved this St. Louis +10 before the Bradford injury. Dallas is going to be in a flat spot. This is a sandwich game. They played New England last week and then travel to Philadelphia next week. They’re going to have a very hard time getting up for the lowly 0-5 Rams. Favorites coming off of a loss as underdogs, before being underdogs are 42-66 ATS since 2008, 14-26 ATS before being divisional underdogs. Also, since 2002, favorites of 10+ are just 11-19 before being divisional underdogs. Dallas will be an underdog in Philadelphia next week.
Speaking of the 0-5 Rams, teams that are 0-5 or worse are 9-1 ATS in the last 10 instances as double digit underdogs. They’re also in their 2nd straight road game. Teams in their 2nd straight road game are 142-104 ATS since 2008, 75-54 ATS after a loss, 69-42 ATS in their 2nd straight road game as a dog, 46-27 ATS after losing in the first game as a dog, and a whopping 15-5 ATS in their 2nd straight game as road dogs.
Meanwhile, on Dallas’ side, Tony Romo is just 5-9 ATS in his career as double digit favorites. Also, and I find this remarkable, the Cowboys last 11 games have been decided by 4 points or less. Look it up if you don’t believe me. I purposely ignored this last week against New England because New England was a 7+ point favorites and 7+ point favorites are very, very good before a bye. Dallas covered anyway as New England won by just 4. Given that, expecting Dallas to cover a double digit line is ridiculous.
Now, of course, Sam Bradford is out. This might surprise you, but that doesn’t change my pick. All of those powerful trends I mentioned above are still in play and the line has shifted 3 points to compensate for Bradford’s loss. If anything, St. Louis will be even more motivated to win here, to rally around their backup quarterback and try to win their first game, while Dallas will overlook the lowly Rams even more in this sandwich game situation.
Besides, AJ Feeley, the Rams backup quarterback, is one of the better backups in the league in my opinion. Also remember, he’ll have Brandon Lloyd to work with and I think this helps their team tremendously. They had absolutely nothing at receiver before trading for him and now they get a receiver who lead the league in receiving the last time he was in Josh McDaniels’ system. Oh, and on top of this, there’s always a chance Bradford plays. Even if he doesn’t, St. Louis is my pick of the week this week.
Update: Sam Bradford is going to play this week, per Adam Schefter. This line is still at +13 (-105) for St. Louis. It won’t stay this way for long, but anyone who read what I wrote above will understand why I’m bumping this up to a 6 unit pick. I love St. Louis (+13) with Bradford starting. They won’t be miserable offensively anymore with the addition of Brandon Lloyd and they’ll be extra motivated to win this week against a Dallas team that is in a sandwich game situation and hasn’t played a game decided by more than 4 in 11 games. 6 units picks are rarities for me. I made 3 next year and I hit all of them. I’m so confident I can make this 4 for 4 that I’m putting 6 here. If the line drops back to +10-+11, 5 units is the right amount, but as long as you can get this +13, do it and do it big.
Green Bay Packers 38 Minnesota Vikings 14
Pick against spread: Green Bay -9 (+105) 3 units (-300)
I’m betting Aaron Rodgers here and not thinking twice about it. He’s too good. The Packers are 29-14 ATS since 2009, including 5-1 ATS this year. They’ve covered in back-to-back weeks when the trends were heavily against them and this week the trends favor them. They’re favorites of 7+ heading into a bye. Teams in this situation are 42-16 ATS since 2002, albeit only 8-6 ATS on the road like the Packers are, but 4-0 ATS on the road in a divisional game.
Besides, the Packers are awesome on the road ever since Mike McCarthy took over in 2006. Since then, they’re a whopping 31-16 ATS on the road. Plus, the Packers are just too good. The Vikings looked absolutely terrible last week against a Bears team that should have been flat in a sandwich game. The Packers should have no trouble winning here by multiple scores.
New Orleans Saints 30 Indianapolis Colts 21 Survivor Pick (5-1 NE, PIT, BAL, GB, NYG, PHI)
Pick against spread: Indianapolis +14 (-110) 4 units (-440)
The Colts were my pick of the week last week. They were 7 point underdogs and trailed by only 3 with the ball late. However, Pierre Garcon decided stupidly to lateral the ball unnecessarily with 2 minutes left and Carlos Dunlap returned the ball for a cover winning touchdown. Sometimes I hate football. However, discounting last week’s bullshit 10 point loss, this team hasn’t lost by more than 7 since week 1, hanging with the likes of Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh in that stretch. However, Vegas still has them 14 point dogs here against New Orleans.
On top of this, the Saints don’t play well as big favorites. Since Sean Payton took over in 2006, they’re a mere 3-9 ATS when favored by more than 10. Going to league wide, favorites of 10+ are 21-33 ATS since 2010 after a loss as a favorite (8-14 ATS when that loss was a divisional loss). The Saints don’t rebound particularly well after losing as a favorite. They’re only 8-8 ATS in the Sean Payton era after a loss as a favorite, 2-4 ATS after a loss as a divisional favorite. I think they’re going to have a hard time getting up for the lowly Colts this week, especially since Head Coach Sean Payton is injured and needs surgery, which will obviously cut into his time to game plan for the lowly Colts.
Meanwhile, the Colts are desperate for a win. They’re 0-6 right now and I don’t buy any of this “Suck for Luck” stuff. The ownership and general manager might be secretly hoping they lose so they can get Andrew Luck, but the players have their own futures to worry about, as well as their own dignity. This is a proud veteran team that hasn’t lost more than 6 games in a season since 2002 and now they have 6 losses in 6 games. They’re going to give their all. Teams that are 0-5 or worse are 9-1 ATS as double digit road dogs in the last 10 instances. Teams in that situation are undervalued by Vegas, overlooked by the opponent, and especially hungry to win. Finally, Curtis Painter is getting better every week for the Colts. I think he’s good enough this week to keep it within 2 scores.
Baltimore Ravens 27 Jacksonville Jaguars 12
Pick against spread: Baltimore -7.5 (-110) 3 units
Fun fact, the Jacksonville Jaguars are the worst team ATS since 2008. They’re 19-34 ATS in that stretch. I bet you wouldn’t guess, but Baltimore is the 2nd best ATS team in that stretch behind the Packers. They’re 36-24 ATS since 2008, since John Harbaugh took over and Joe Flacco was made their starting quarterback. There aren’t any huge situation trends in play here, so that’ll have to do.
Besides, common sense says Jacksonville just sucks. They have the 2nd worst scoring offense in the league behind St. Louis, who has played 1 fewer game than they have. They have scored 20 or fewer in their last 8 games and they are 1-8 in their last 9 games dating back to last season, when they were somehow 8-5 and leading the division.
Quarterback Blaine Gabbert is clearly not ready to be on the field. He’s completed just 48.8% of his passes for an average of 5.8 yards per attempt. They’re going to have a very hard time scoring more than 14 here as they’ve only done that once this year and they haven’t quite faced a defense like Baltimore’s. Baltimore can cover this spread with 21 points. I don’t think they have any problem doing that.
Teaser: Baltimore -1.5, Green Bay -3 3 units
How does this not hit?
Hedge: Jacksonville +450 (1 unit)
One half of the teaser has hit. I thought about leaving it be, but I’ve been screwed over so much I want to definitely make some money. If Baltimore wins by 2 or more, I win $300 and lose $100, so $200. If Jacksonville wins, I win $450 and lose $300 so I win $150. If Baltimore wins by 1 or ties, I lose $400 and throw my computer out the window.
LV Hilton Super Contest Picks (for anyone playing): St. Louis +12, Denver +1.5, Indianapolis +14, Arizona +3.5, Packers -9 (15-15 on the season).
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