Spreads/Lines on betonline.com
Last week overall: 7-6
Last week ATS: 4-9 (-1910/-16 units)
Overall picks: 72-44 (.621)
Upset Picks: 0-2 (-200/-2 units)
ATS Picks: 48-63-5 (-5415/-41 units)
Survivor picks: 7-1 (NE, PIT, BAL, GB, NYG, PHI, NO, SF)
Upset picks: 11-18 (+570/-3 units)
Recap: I sucked. Again. Last week I wrote here about how bad teams were especially bad after the lockout, saying that teams with .325 or worse winning percentages (with the exception of one outlier) were covering at a rate of 25% this year, as opposed to 35% last year. I stayed away from those teams, with the exception of Jacksonville.
So what happened? Those 6 teams (Miami, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, St. Louis, Arizona, Minnesota), went 4-2 ATS last week. St. Louis, who was missing their starting quarterback and had scored 56 points in 6 games, beat the Saints, who scored 62 points the week before and Arizona and Miami both almost pulled upsets on the road as double digit underdogs against 4-2 teams. The one bad team I bet on, Jacksonville, didn’t cover because Houston kicked a “meaningless” field goal as time expired.
My conclusion from last week, I shouldn’t have changed anything. I need to go back to what I was doing from week 1-7. It worked last year and it’ll work again. I just need to be patient. I knew St. Louis and Miami were the right side last week. New Orleans sucks on the road and as big favorites and New York wouldn’t be focused for the Dolphins with New England next on their schedule. I just was afraid to them bet because they were 0-6 ATS.
One thing I am noting, teams suck after a bye this week. New England hadn’t lost off a bye in forever and they lost last week. The mandatory 4 day vacation during bye weeks the players negotiated themselves in the new CBA is making players really rusty off a bye. Belichick knew that was a possibility and game planned against it all week and he still lost.
This year has been weird so I really hope things turn around. I have a feeling when we look back at this year in history, it’ll be referred to as that “weird lockout year.” Everyone who is smart is losing money. A lot of sharps are losing money. Vegas is even losing money. I bet there’s some idiot at home who can’t keep the drool in his mouth getting rich by picking teams at random. Maybe I should try that…
Buffalo Bills 27 New York Jets 17
Pick against spread: Buffalo -1 (-120) 4 units (-480)
The Bills have been consistently underrated by Vegas. They were +6.5 at Kansas City, +9 at home for New England, +3 at home for Philadelphia, and last week -6 at home for the terrible Redskins. They covered all 3 of those games and I think they’re underrated here once more. I don’t understand how Vegas sees the Jets as 2 points better than the Bills.
On top of that, this game will mean more to the Bills than the Jets. The Jets face the Patriots next week. You know they’re going to be more focused on that game. Divisional favorites or road dogs of less than 3 are 30-66 ATS since 2002 before being divisional dogs. The Jets will be divisional dogs next week for the Patriots and though they are divisional dogs here, they’re dogs of less than 3 on the road, meaning Vegas sees the Jets as the superior team. They still fit that trend.
On the other hand, the Bills are trying to avenge a huge loss to the Jets week 17 last year. Divisional favorites trying to avenge a loss of 21+ are 29-12 ATS since 2002. The Jets embarrassed the Bills 38-7 week 17 last year so the Bills obviously fit this trend. Finally, the Jets are coming off of a bye. Teams coming off of a bye have looked rusty this season because of the NFL’s new stupid bye rules.
Dallas Cowboys 27 Seattle Seahawks 9 Survivor Pick (7-1 NE, PIT, BAL, GB, NYG, PHI, NO, SF)
Pick against spread: Dallas -11.5 (-110) 2 units (-220)
And here I thought the Seahawks were actually becoming a legitimate football team after beating Arizona, hanging with Atlanta and beating the Giants on the road. However, since their bye, the Seahawks have lost 6-3 to the Browns and then got destroyed last week by the Bengals. No matter who they had at quarterback last week, they couldn’t do anything offensively against the Bengals and that was with the magic of Qwest Field on their side.
Now they go on the road, where they are a pitiful 11-26 ATS since 2007, and they face the Cowboys. The Cowboys didn’t look too good either last week, losing 34-7 to the Eagles, who looked like the Dream Team they were supposed to be. However, I think that was more of a case of the Eagles being awesome finally than the Cowboys being terrible. Fun fact, Dallas is 14-7 ATS after playing the Eagles since 2000, 9-4 ATS after a loss, so I think their loss to the Eagles will motivate them rather than deflate them.
The Cowboys aren’t great, but they’re a solid bunch and what better way for them to take out their anger than by beating up on the lowly Seahawks. Teams that lose by 21+ are 10-2 ATS the next week as double digit favorites since 2002. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are 1-7 ATS since 2007 as double digit road dogs, with that one win of course against the Giants earlier this season. I think that game was a fluke so I’m comfortable putting a couple units on the Cowboys here as big favorites at home. They showed the ability to blow out bad teams like the Rams at home. I don’t think they have much problem here with Seattle.
Houston Texans 24 Cleveland Browns 17
Pick against spread: Cleveland +11 (-110) 3 units (-330)
Matt Schaub has 62 career starts, this one will be his 63rd. He’s won 3 in a row a mere 3 times in his career. The Texans beat the Titans and then the Jaguars so if they beat the Browns here, that will be 3 in a row. I’m not saying the Browns will win, but that doesn’t help the Texans’ cause here. Furthermore, in 84 career games, Gary Kubiak has covered in 3+ straight games 3 times. That one is a little bit more relevant considering how big this line is.
Speaking of the line being big, Gary Kubiak has never covered as double digit favorites, going 0-2 in that situation in his career. The Texans are also a mere 13-20 ATS off of a win under Gary Kubiak. They covered last week in this situation, but barely and it took a late field goal to cover. Kubiak and the Texans are notoriously bad off of a win.
Meanwhile, Cleveland hasn’t been playing good football this year, but they haven’t been getting blown out either. They’ve only lost by more than 10 once all season. Besides, they’re also in their 2nd straight game as road dogs of 7+, a situation teams are 48-24 ATS in since 2002. The Texans are due for a letdown and the Browns seem like the type of team that can take advantage of that let down and cover against a big line.
Atlanta Falcons 26 Indianapolis Colts 20
Pick against spread: Indianapolis +7 (-110) 1 unit (-110)
Something weird seems to be up with Matt Ryan this season. Matt Ryan was 30-17 ATS in his career before this season, yet only 3-4 ATS this season. He was 15-10 ATS in his career on the road before this season, but 1-3 ATS this year. He was 7-2 ATS on the road as favorites, but he’s failed to cover in both of his games as road favorites this year.
Given that, I think Atlanta is a little overrated as 7 point favorites here in Indianapolis, especially off of a bye. Curtis Painter is playing better and the Colts could have kept it close last week if not for a special teams mistake, some penalties, and turnovers. The Colts are a proud veteran squad who has to be getting tired of hearing how much they suck without Peyton Manning. I’m betting them this week, but only barely. I’m not confident in this one.
Miami Dolphins 16 Kansas City Chiefs 10 Upset Pick (+205)
Pick against spread: Miami +4.5 (-110) 3 units (+300)
I was really looking forward to picking the Dolphins this week against the overrated Chiefs. The Chiefs are 14-9 in the last two years straight up, but who have they beaten? Over that stretch, they’ve beaten 4 teams that either finished with a .500 or better record last year or currently have a .500 or better record.
Those 4 teams, the week 1 Chargers last year in a game Matt Cassel threw for 68 yards, the 2010 Jacksonville Jaguars starting Todd Bouman, their 3rd string quarterback, the shit show that was the week 7 Oakland Raiders, and the choking Chargers last week. Meanwhile, good teams like the 2010 Baltimore Ravens, the 2010 Oakland Raiders, the 2011 Detroit Lions and the 2010 Buffalo Bills all beat them by 20+. On top of that, the Chiefs are just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 instances as favorites.
Meanwhile, the Dolphins are on the road, which is like being at home for any other normal team. Under Tony Sparano, the Dolphins are 7-21 ATS at home and 18-10 ATS on the road, including a near win as double digit underdogs against the Giants last week. They’re also in their 2nd straight road game as dogs of 3+, a situation teams are 54-37 ATS in since 2008. Fun fact, teams that cover, but don’t win as 10+ point road underdogs are 16-4 ATS since 2002 as road dogs of 3+ the following week. The Dolphins are also winless and will have the motivation edge over the Chiefs, who could easily overlook the Dolphins after an emotional home win last week against division rival San Diego on Monday Night Football.
However, Vegas isn’t overrating the Chiefs. I thought after how “good” they looked beating an “elite” team in the Chargers last week, and being on a 4 game winning streak, the Chiefs would be favored by at least 7, probably 9 here. If anything, Vegas is underrating them. The Chiefs suck, but they’re better than 1.5 points better than the putrid Dolphins.
That being said, I’m still betting on Miami. I think they can outright win here. They’ve played much better on the road this season than at home, hanging within a field goal of both New York and Cleveland, and last year they were 6-2 straight up on the road as opposed to 1-7 at home. The Chiefs could easily be flat off a huge MNF win over the Chargers in overtime and will have a very hard time getting up for the 0-7 Dolphins. Besides, the Dolphins are in an extremely powerful 16-4 ATS situation as 3+ road dogs after covering, but not winning as 10+ road dogs.
Finally, this line could be a trap line. Chiefs -4.5 will seem too good to be true for a lot of people. After all, the Chiefs just beat the Chargers and the Dolphins don’t have a win all season. This season is so weird that even Vegas is losing money so a trap line makes a lot of sense here given that all the situational angles say Miami is the right side. It wouldn’t even surprise me if this game was fixed. Vegas never has a losing season. Given that, I feel comfortable going with the situational angles and taking the points even though there is absolutely no line value.
New Orleans Saints 34 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28
Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +9 (-120) 2 units (-240)
One would think New Orleans would be extra motivated this week after losing as huge favorites to St. Louis last week and after losing to these same Buccaneers a few weeks before. However, I couldn’t find any numbers to support it. The Saints aren’t particularly good after a loss as a favorite and the Saints aren’t particularly good in divisional revenge games.
Tampa Bay, however, is particularly good as divisional dogs of 7+, going 4-1 ATS under Raheem Morris in that situation. Besides, Tampa Bay has had New Orleans’ number recently, beating them in their last two matchups, including week 17 last year in New Orleans. Besides, since week 6 of 2010, the Buccaneers have lost just one game by more than a touchdown and that was that weird game in San Francisco earlier this season.
They play a lot of close games and I don’t expect them to lose by more than a touchdown, but at the same time, I could see the Saints coming out angry and blowing the Buccaneers out of the water, especially with the Buccaneers coming off of a bye. They have the ability to do that, which I was this isn’t going to be a big bet. In fact, the only reason I’m making any sort of bet here is because the line is bigger than 7.
San Francisco 49ers 20 Washington Redskins 10
Pick against spread: San Francisco -3.5 (-105) 2 units (+200)
The 49ers are playing a 1 PM ET start on the East Coast as a West Coast team, but the 49ers have actually won in Cincinnati, Detroit, and Philadelphia in that same situation this year. They don’t seem to have any problems with traveling 3 time zones for an early game. In addition, Washington is terrible. I still don’t think Vegas has caught onto that.
Their quarterback is John Beck. Tim Hightower, Santana Moss, and Trent Williams are all out. Ryan Torain and Roy Helu are mediocre at best on the ground and their best receiver is Jabar Gaffney. Their offensive line is banged up and terrible, surrendering 9 sacks last week to a Buffalo team that had 4 sacks coming into the game in 6 games and was missing two key players in their front 7 in Kyle Williams and Shawne Merriman. On top of that, Fred Davis is now hurt. He might not play, which would leave them very thin at tight end as Chris Cooley is on IR. They’re awful. They deserved to be much worse than +6 on the road against the Bills last week and they deserve to be more than +3.5 here at home for San Francisco.
The 49ers, meanwhile, are the only team in football that has covered or pushed in each of their 7 games, going 6-0-1. They’ve proven they can win early on the East Coast and I don’t think they have any problem here with the Redskins. I don’t really have any trends to support me, but I do really like San Francisco this week. If you can get this line at -3, 3 units is the right amount, as San Francisco is such a conservative football team. Field goal protection is valuable. At -3.5, go 2 units.
Denver Broncos 16 Oakland Raiders 13 Upset Pick (+345)
Pick against spread: Denver +7.5 (-110) 5 units (+500)
Tim Tebow looked awful last week, but I’m not ready to give up on him. Yes, he had one terrible game against a good team, but he kept the Broncos competitive in each of his first 5 games played. If anything, his awful loss last week will motivate him to play even better this week. Tebow is a guy with Tom Brady esque intangibles and we all know how good Brady is off of a loss.
In general, teams that lose by 21+ at home are 90-68 ATS the next week. That makes sense. They’re playing for their pride after a huge embarrassment. The Broncos are also playing to avenge a loss to the Raiders earlier this season. Underdogs trying to avenge a divisional loss as a favorite are 71-51 ATS since 2002.
Meanwhile, I don’t know if people have forgotten this, but the Raiders were equally as awful before their bye against a weaker opponent in the Chiefs. Carson Palmer and Kyle Boller threw 3 picks a piece in a 28-0 home loss to the Chiefs. They’ll be playing for their pride as well this week, but I really don’t feel comfortable laying more than 3 points with the Raiders right now, let alone 7.5. There’s a chance Oakland finishes the season at 6-10 or worse, which means they would be favorites of 6+ as a team that finishes 6-10 or worse, a situation teams are 22-61 ATS in since 2002.
They’re coming off a bye, which hasn’t helped teams this year and there’s no guarantees Carson Palmer knows enough of the playbook to be a functional quarterback. There’s also no guarantees Palmer can be a functional quarterback even with total knowledge of the playbook because of how bad he was last year and because he did nothing but sit on his ass and count his money for 8 months before the Raiders traded for him.
Besides, the Raiders might have a hard time giving a full effort this week against the Broncos, who just got blown out and who they beat earlier this season. The Raiders travel to San Diego next week. They’re likely to be more focused on that. Divisional favorites are a terrible 5-21 ATS since 2008 before being divisional dogs, which they will definitely be in San Diego. That trend can be traced back to 2002. Teams in that situation are 27-61 ATS since 2002. Oakland is also terrible as a favorite in general, going 3-11 ATS as a favorite since 2006. The Broncos are my pick of the week.
Cincinnati Bengals 23 Tennessee Titans 20 Upset Pick (+130)
Pick against spread: Cincinnati +2.5 (+100) 2 units (+200)
The Bengals sit at 5-2, the same record as the Patriots and the Ravens. Raise your hand if you saw that one coming at the beginning of the season. I strangely see no hands. Andy Dalton, aka the Red Rifle, has been awesome for the Bengals and if the Bengals can beat the Ravens and the Steelers after this game, they’ll lead the division, no matter what happens here against Tennessee.
For that reason, they could be a bit flat against Tennessee, but I still like Cincinnati a little bit this week. I think this line is ridiculous. The Titans were blown out by the Steelers and the Texans and their game with the Colts last week could have been a lot closer had Indianapolis not shot themselves in the foot so much. Kenny Britt is out. Chris Johnson is awful. They’re way worse than their 4-3 record suggests. I have a very hard time believing these two teams are equal.
Besides, the Bengals are in their 2nd straight road game, a situation teams are 144-108 ATS in since 2008, 68-50 ATS after a win and 98-68 ATS as a dog. Marvin Lewis himself is 11-5 ATS in his 2nd straight road game as the Head Coach of the Cincinnati Bengals, including 9-3 ATS as a dog. In general, the Bengals are 14-7 ATS as a dog since 2009. They might not be a 100% here which is why this isn’t a bigger pick, but I still like them to pull the upset here in Tennessee.
Arizona Cardinals 17 St. Louis Rams 13
Pick against spread: Arizona -1.5 (-110) 1 unit (+100)
Sam Bradford is going to play Kevin Kolb will not play, at least that’s what’s expected. In Kolb’s absence, John Skelton, who showed flashes in limited starts last season, will start for the Cardinals. This is a tough one. I really don’t want to take an NFC West team on the road. in the last 2 years, excluding the 2011 49ers because they’re a legitimate football team, the NFC West is 14-29 ATS on the road, 4-9 ATS on the road in the division. The Rams could also be flat off a huge win against the Saints. Teams are 43-64 ATS after winning as double digit underdogs since 1989.
However, the Cardinals are favorites here so betting on them means picking them to win. I really don’t know what we’re going to get from John Skelton. He could be good. He could be terrible. The Cardinals could be extra motivated to snap their 6 game losing streak now that their starting quarterback is gone. Everyone else might play 110% to compensate against a divisional rival that they can beat, or they might mail it in without Kolb.
They might also overlook the Cardinals. They just had an emotional loss to the Ravens as huge favorites last week and next week they go the Philadelphia. This is a sandwich game. Teams that lose as underdogs are 43-66 ATS before being underdogs again since 2008. I don’t really have a good feel for this one, but I’m taking the favorite for 1. I don’t want to bet on the Rams on the road, especially as small underdogs.
New England Patriots 38 New York Giants 17
Pick against spread: New England Patriots -9 (+100) 3 units (-300)
If there’s two situations the Patriots are awesome in, it’s revenge games and games after a loss. The Patriots lost to the Steelers last week. Since 2002, the Patriots are a whopping 16-6 ATS after a loss as a favorite. The game the Patriots are trying to get revenge for here is obviously Super Bowl 42. Somehow I don’t think they’ve forgotten about that. The Patriots are a whopping 18-7 ATS since 2002 against teams they lost to as a favorite previously. The Giants are getting the double whammy this week. I just know I really, really wouldn’t want to be them.
This line is big, which is why this isn’t a bigger bet, but I really like New England’s chances to blow out the Giants this week. They’ll be angry about last week’s loss and they’ll be angry about the Super Bowl. Meanwhile, as good as the Giants are before week 9, 36-22 ATS under Tom Coughlin, they’ve awful in the 2nd half of the season, especially weeks 9-12, where they are 9-17 ATS under Tom Coughlin.
San Diego Chargers 35 Green Bay Packers 31 Upset Pick (+220)
Pick against spread: San Diego +6 (-105) 3 units (-315)
Different year, same story, the Chargers completely suck in the first half of the season. They’re new inventing new ways to lose. Seriously? A botched snap in field goal range in a tied game late? Has that ever happened before? The bad news for Chargers fans is that they have to play the Packers this week and the Packers are the best team in the league at 7-0.
Or maybe that’s good news. The Chargers always seem to play up (or down) to the level of their competition. We’re getting Philip Rivers as an underdog this week and Philip Rivers is 11-7 ATS as an underdog, 10-5 ATS against everyone except his arch enemy Tom Brady and the Patriots. The Chargers are also very good off a loss as a favorite in the Philip Rivers era, going 12-6 ATS in that situation.
More good news for the Chargers, it’s week 9. The first half of the season is over. At some point every season the Chargers turn things around, even last year, when they didn’t make the playoffs, they were 7-2 after starting 2-5. Since Philip Rivers took over as the starter in 2006, the Chargers are a mere 19-25 ATS before week 9, but 31-19 ATS week 9 or later.
The Chargers are also back at home, where they always play better. All 3 of their losses this season are on the road and they’ve won each of their home games, though they were playing Kansas City, Minnesota, and Miami. However, Philip Rivers is 28-19 ATS at home, 2-0 ATS as a home underdog. Finally, teams that lose as road favorites typically fare well the next week as home dogs. It makes sense, a week ago they were good enough to be favorites on the road, but now, after just one week, they’re dogs at home. Teams are 18-12 ATS in this situation since 2002.
I really like the Chargers this week for the reasons I listed above. They play better in the 2nd half of the season. They play better against better competition, especially as an underdog. They also play better at home. On top of that, this line is a complete overreaction. This line means the Chargers would be -12 in Green Bay. St. Louis was -15 in Green Bay. Denver was -13.
I like San Diego’s chances to cover this week and I think they have a decent chance of pulling the upset. No one is ever perfect and if the Packers don’t lose this week, there’s not a lot of other teams on their schedule with the offensive firepower to beat them. The Chargers are one of them. The Packers have also been fortunate to have an easy first half schedule. From week 2 on, they played Carolina, Chicago, Denver, Atlanta, St. Louis, and Minnesota. Chicago and Atlanta are the only two teams on that list that are even decent and their week 1 game with New Orleans went down to the last snap.
The Packers’ defense hasn’t played as well as it should have against weak competition (25th in yards) so I think an offensive powerhouse like San Diego (when they’re right) should be able to at least give them a game. Given that it’s now the 2nd half of the season, and that they were just embarrassed on national television, and that they’re coming home where they play well, and that they’re playing a good team and they play up to the level of the competition, I think they’ll be right this week. On top of that, the Packers could be rusty off of a bye.
Pittsburgh Steelers 17 Baltimore Ravens 10
Pick against spread: Pittsburgh -3 (-125) 3 units
The Ravens blew out the Steelers week 1, but since then, they’ve gone 6-1 and the Ravens have gone just 4-2 and they haven’t been playing good football of late. They lost in Jacksonville and they almost lost last week at home against Arizona and they only won because Kevin Kolb was somehow more horrific than Joe Flacco. Speaking of Flacco, despite beating Roethlisberger earlier this season, he is just 2-5 ATS in his career against Big Ben.
Meanwhile, the Steelers are playing good football and will be very motivated. The Steelers are going to be scary this week. Divisional favorites trying to avenge of loss of 21+ are 29-12 ATS since 2002. The Steelers are especially dangerous in this spot because Ben Roethlisberger is 29-17 ATS against a team that beat him in the previous matchup in his career. I’m putting 3 units on the Steelers here at home at -3. If you get -3.5, only put 2 units on this. Steelers/Ravens games are normally close so field goal protection is going to be valuable.
Philadelphia Eagles 34 Chicago Bears 20
Pick against spread: Philadelphia -7 (-115) 3 units
The Eagles looked like the Dream Team last week, beating the Cowboys 34-7, improving Andy Reid’s record to 13-0 straight up after a bye. I think the Eagles we saw last week are representative of the Eagles we will see from here on out. Yes, they struggled early, but Andy Reid coached teams always do. The Eagles have always gotten better as the season has gone on.
This season especially a slow start was predictable because they had so many new players, including new offensive and defensive line coaches and a new defensive coordinator, who used to be the offensive line coach (huh?). However, they seem to have put it all together now and I really don’t think the Bears stand much of a chance this week, especially off a bye.
I don’t have a lot of trends to support myself, but Andy Reid is 15-6 ATS on Monday Night, including 7-1 ATS since 2006. Besides, even though I’ve been wrong a lot this year, the Eagles have been the one team I’ve predicted correctly. I bet against them in their first 5 games (St. Louis, Atlanta, New York, San Francisco, Buffalo), and I bet on them in their last 2 (Washington, Dallas). I’m 6-1 betting on their games this year, including 6 in a row, and I like my chances of going 7-1. Maybe this should be my pick of the week…
Parlay: Atlanta -0.5, Philadelphia -1.5 5 units
This is betting 550 to win 500. Assuming Atlanta wins outright, I can hedge this before Monday Night with 2 units on the Chicago money line (+300) setting up a situation in which I win 500 and lose 200 if Philadelphia wins by 2 or more, so I get 300 dollars total. If Chicago wins straight up, I win 600 and lose 550 or I win 50 dollars total. If Philadelphia wins by 1, I throw my laptop out the window (lose 750). If Atlanta loses straight up against Indianapolis, I lose $550.
LV Hilton Super Contest Picks: Denver +8, Buffalo -1.5, Kansas City +4, New England -8.5, Cleveland +11 (17-23)
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