Unless noted, all odds as of August 19th
5 unit bets
San Francisco to miss playoffs -190 (August 29th)
How the hell does this team make the playoffs? They’re probably the worst team in the league. Easy money.
4 unit bets
San Francisco under 7 ½ wins -105
San Francisco might have the worst stop unit in the league after losing 4 starters who they didn’t replace. On offense, things aren’t much better as Alex Smith is the quarterback behind what looks like a miserable line in the preseason. There’s no way in hell this team gets 8 wins.
Arizona to win NFC West +210
St. Louis to win NFC West +200
I’m pairing these two together. I can’t see anyway San Francisco or Seattle wins this division. It’s going to be one of these two. If it’s Arizona, I win 210 and lose 100 (from St. Louis). If it’s St. Louis, I win 200 and lose 100. Basically, this is an Arizona/St. Louis will win NFC West +105 bet. I’d take that.
Tony Romo over 4000 yards -135 (9/2)
In 6 and a 1/2 games with Jason Garrett, Jon Kitna threw for the equivalent of 4650 passing yards in 16 games. In the first 5 games of last season, Tony Romo threw the equivalent of 5011 yards in 16 games. Romo threw for 4211 yards in 2007 and 4483 yards in 2009. Barring injury, he gets 4000+ this season.
Kenny Britt over 5 touchdowns -115 (9/2)
Kenny Britt caught 9 touchdowns in 12 games last year with Vince Young, Rusty Smith, and Kerry Collins at quarterback. He’s now in his 3rd year and has Matt Hasselbeck or Jake Locker throwing to him. He should breeze past 5 touchdowns.
3 unit bets
Miami under 7 ½ wins -140
Miami only won 7 games last year despite a minus 60 differential. That suggests that they had good luck. They finished the season 3-6 and 1-4 and Chad Henne looks absolutely terrible in the preseason. Matt Moore wouldn’t be much better. There’s no way in hell this team gets 8 wins.
Kansas City under 7 ½ wins -105
Including playoffs, the Chiefs were 2-5 in games against .500 or better teams last year, with those 2 wins coming against the early season Chargers in a game in which Matt Cassel threw 68 yards, and the Jaguars and their 3rd string quarterback. They play 10 such games this year. They won 10 games last year. I’d very surprised if they won 8 or more this season.
New Orleans over 10 wins -130
They won 11 games last year in a down year. They’re healthier this season, especially Drew Brees who played all last season with a bad knee. They fixed their defensive line in the offseason, as well as their running game. I project a bounce back year for them and 11 wins to be their floor.
Chris Long over 7 ½ sacks -115 (9/2)
Long had 8.5 sacks last year, but easily could have had more as he had 13 quarterback hits and 57 quarterback pressures. He should easily have 7.5 sacks this season as the former #2 overall pick enters his 4th year.
Tim Hightower over 700 yards -115 (9/2)
Hightower will be the lead back in Washington. Mike Shanahan has ridden countless random running backs to over 700 yards in his career as a head coach. Hightower looks next in line.
2 unit bets
Houston over 8 ½ wins -130
Houston is the offseason most improved team. They get Connor Barwin and DeMeco Ryans back from injury, JJ Watt, Brooks Reed, and Brandon Harris through the draft, and Johnathan Joseph and Danieal Manning through free agency. Kareem Jackson will also be better in his 2nd year and they added a good defensive coordinator in Wade Phillips, who will implement a 3-4 defense that is Peyton Manning’s weakness. They finally have at least a passable defense to go with a very strong and balanced offense. I have them at 12 wins and I would be very, very surprised if they had 8 or fewer again.
Green Bay over 11 ½ wins +115
Barring injury, I can’t see any way this team wins 11 or fewer games. They are one of the two most complete teams in the league. I like getting the +115 as well.
New England over 11 ½ wins -115
Barring injury, I can’t see any way this team wins 11 or fewer games. Along with Green Bay, this is one of the two most complete teams in the league.
Tony Romo over 25 ½ touchdowns -120 (9/2)
Since 2007, Romo has thrown for 26+ touchdowns in every season except last year when he got hurt early. He was on pace for 31 touchdowns when he went down and in Kitna’s last 6 and a half games with Jason Garrett, he was on pace for 30 touchdowns.
Marcedes Lewis under 7 touchdowns -115 (9/2)
1, 2, 2, 2, 10. Those are Marcedes Lewis’ career touchdown numbers. See an outlier? Lewis got paid this offseason and could easily revert to his pre-contract year self. Plus, Jacksonville’s offense figures to suck so 7 touchdowns looks out of reach.
Matt Cassel under 22 touchdowns -115 (9/2)
With a much tougher schedule this season, I doubt Cassel throws of more than 22 touchdowns. In 7 games against teams with 8 or more wins last year, Cassel threw 5 touchdowns. He plays 10 such games this season and threw for 16 touchdowns in 2009, the last time they had a reasonably hard schedule.
Dwayne Bowe under 1050 yards -115 (9/2)
In 5 games against teams with 9 or more wins in 2010, Bowe caught 4 passes for 49 yards. They play 8 teams like that this year and the Chiefs added Steve Breaston and Jonathan Baldwin to steal targets from him this season.
Jimmy Graham over 600 yards -120 (9/2)
In the 2nd half of last season, Graham had 304 receiving yards, on pace for 608 over 16 games. Now he’s the starter and Drew Brees has looked his way plenty of times this preseason.
Mike Sims-Walker over 650 yards -115 (9/2)
MSW had 562 yards on a bad Jacksonville offense as the #2 last year. He’ll be the #1 in St. Louis, a much better offense. Barring injury, he should surpass 650 yards.
1 unit bets
Dallas over 9 wins even
Dallas finished the season 5-3 last year and that was with their backup quarterback. They play a last place schedule this season and don’t have to face the Giants in the first half of the season, which seems to be the only time they’re a dangerous team. I like them to win 10 or 11 games and because this is an even line, this bet essentially says you’re bet that they don’t win less than 9 games. If they win exactly 9, the bet is an even push. I think that’s worst case scenario for this team this year.
New England to win AFC +300
They’re my clear pick in the AFC. San Diego can’t win in the playoffs. The Jets are weaker. The Colts are older. The Ravens are 2nd tier. The Steelers should expect a letdown season. The Texans aren’t there yet. The Patriots are probably the most complete team in the league. I take 3-1 odds that they win the conference.
New England to win Super Bowl +650
Every year it’s pretty much mandatory for me to bet on the Super Bowl before the season. I have New England winning the whole thing at 13-2 odds as I look to make it two in a row after picking Green Bay +1200 last season.
Detroit over 7.5 wins -180 (August 29th)
They had the point differential of an 8-8 team last season. They get Matt Stafford, who looks like a franchise QB, back and they add Nick Fairley, Stephen Tulloch, Eric Wright, and Justin Durant to their defense. This would be a 2 unit, but that -180 is ugly.
Cincinnati under 5 ½ wins -125
Defensively, they won’t be able to create a consistent pass rush opposite Carlos Dunlap and they’ll miss Johnathan Joseph. On offense, they have a rookie 2nd round quarterback, a new offensive coordinator, and little to no experience in the receiving corps. They also don’t run well. I’d be surprised if they won more than 5 games.
Houston to win AFC South +180
I outlined why I liked Houston earlier and I like getting +180 for them to win the division, but I’m not confident enough to put more than a unit on it.
Steve Johnson over 900 yards -115 (9/2)
Steve Johnson had 1075 yards last season even though Ryan Fitzpatrick missed 3 games and even though Johnson didn’t really break out until a few weeks into the season.
Ndamukong Suh to be fined -150 (9/2)
The man is a human wrecking ball. He’ll be fined once this season.
Mario Manningham over 900 yards -115 (9/2)
Manningham had 944 yards last season. Kevin Boss and Steve Smith are gone.
Santonio Holmes over 925 yards -115 (9/2)
In 11 games, Holmes had 729 yards, good for 1060 yards over 16 games. Braylon Edwards and Jerricho Cotchery are gone and replaced with inferior talent so Holmes will be targeted often.
Austin Collie over 775 yards -115 (9/2)
In 8 full games last year, Collie had 650 yards. Unless he misses as much time as he did last year, he should surpass 775 yards.
Nate Burleson over 650 yards -120 (9/2)
Burleson had 625 yards last year in 13 games. Matt Stafford is back and has locked his way often.
Sam Bradford over 3800 yards -115 (9/2)
Kyle Orton threw for 3653 yards in 13 games under Josh McDaniels in 2010. In 16 games under McDaniels in 2009, he had 3803 yards. Josh McDaniels is now Sam Bradford’s offensive coordinator and Bradford is way more talented than Orton is. Before McDaniels, Orton threw for 2972 yards in 15 games. Bradford had 3512 yards last season with terrible talent at receiver.
1/2 unit bets
Atlanta over 10 ½ wins +135
They have a tough schedule, but they’re probably an 11+ win team. I like their team a lot and I like getting +135 here.
Carolina under 4 ½ wins +105
Carolina was 2-14 last season and now has the toughest schedule in the league. I know they got better in the offseason, but they have a brutal schedule. I say 4 wins is probably their ceiling.
Oakland under 6 ½ wins +110
Nnamdi Asomugha is gone. Zach Miller is gone. Robert Gallery is gone. Michael Huff, Stanford Routt, Kamerion Wimbley, and Richard Seymour could all regress after getting giant offseason deals. They also have a new head coach. I say it’s back to the days of 11+ losses for them.
Pittsburgh under 10 ½ wins even
I have them disappointing this season and winning 9 games, ala 2009 for them. However, I’m not confident enough in that to bet big against them. They’re probably going under 10 ½ wins here.
Pittsburgh to miss playoffs +175 (August 29th)
I have a feeling Pittsburgh struggles this year. That’s why this is only a small bet.
Detroit to make playoffs +230 (August 29th)
After Detroit’s 3rd playoff win, I’m putting them in the playoffs. The NFC is crowded so I’m not putting big money on this or anything.
St. Louis over 7 ½ wins even
They won 7 games last season. They’re a year more mature now. They’re healthier in the receiving corps. They added three players in Harvey Dahl, Robert Quinn, and Justin Bannan who should be key contributors for them. I say 8 wins, but their schedule is very tough, so I’m not that confident in that.
Atlanta to win NFC +750
The NFC is not as clear to me as the AFC, but I have Atlanta coming out of it. I like 15-2 odds.
Tony Romo to lead NFL in passing yards +1000 (August 29th)
I have Romo leading the NFL in passing yards and though I’m not 100% sure on that, I like getting 10-1 odds.
Joey Porter under 6.5 sacks -130 (9/2)
Porter had 5 sacks last season. He’s 34 and could be benched for O’Brien Schofield or Sam Acho this season.
Ray Rice over 1200 yards -115 (9/2)
In 2 years as a starter, Rice has never had fewer than 1200 yards. Willis McGahee is gone and Rice figures to get a ton of carries. They’ve added Vonta Leach and improved the offensive line run blocking wise.
Percy Harvin over 825 yards -115 (9/2)
With Brett Favre, Tarvaris Jackson, and Joe Webb last season, Harvin had 868 yards. McNabb is an upgrade at quarterback. Harvin’s in his 3rd year and Sidney Rice is gone.
Anquan Boldin under 900 yards -115 (9/2)
Boldin had 353 yards in his last 10 games last year and Joe Flacco already looks more comfortable throwing to Lee Evans than to him.
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