32(31). Kansas City Chiefs 1-3

The Chiefs fall to 32 despite their first win of the season last week for several reasons. One, they beat lowly Minnesota and they didn’t do it convincingly. Besides, they were at home. If that game’s played in Minnesota, they lose. My point will essentially be proven this week when they lose in Indianapolis. Also, Minnesota has a glimmer of hope in Christian Ponder, who could come on late and win a few games for them. Kansas City is stuck with Cassel. I have Minnesota ranked slightly higher for that reason. Also, Seattle looked good in a home loss to Atlanta so they move up 2 spots to 30 right above Minnesota.

31(25). Minnesota Vikings 0-4

A lot of people are calling for McNabb to be benched, which I don’t agree with. Yes, Ponder might be the best quarterback on their roster, but they brought in McNabb because they didn’t feel Ponder would be ready early this season. It’s still early and they’re doing the right thing by not rushing Ponder just because they’re 0-4, especially since Ponder would have a terrible supporting cast should he be made starter right now. Besides, it’s not like they’re in a playoff race. If McNabb starts the season 0-7 (entirely possible with Arizona, Chicago, and Green Bay next on the schedule), all that really does is help their draft status and help them land the blue chip left tackle (Matt Kalil?) they desperately need.

30(32). Seattle Seahawks 1-3

Seattle reminded us this week what we should have shown all along, they’ve got a tremendous home field advantage. They almost beat Atlanta, a week after beating Arizona. Simply put, this is too good of a home team in too bad of a road division (8-30 in the last two years on the road), to consider them favorites in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes, no matter how bad their team actually is.

29(30). Jacksonville Jaguars 1-3

If the field crew paints the field on incorrectly, but no one is there to watch it, do they still suck at their jobs? I’d say yes. How do you mess that up? The field obviously confused rookie Blaine Gabbert, who completed just 16 of 42 for 196 yards. That has to be it. It can’t be that he’s just a bad quarterback or anything. All the “experts” loved him coming out of Missouri. They can’t all be wrong even though he threw just 16 touchdowns in a pass heavy offense his senior year.

28(27). Denver Broncos 1-3

Is Tebow starting yet? Ok, maybe I’ll change up the topic for the Broncos this week. Knowshon “Know Show” Moreno has 26 yards on 10 yards this year and is averaging a mere 4.0 per carry for his career. This week, he also famously had major trouble with an exercise back on the sidelines. Can we call him a bust? Hell, can we just agree that drafting running backs in the first round is not a great idea. Sure, you hit on some occasionally (McFadden, Peterson, Johnson), but for every one of those in the past two years, there’s a Moreno, or a Marshawn Lynch, a Donald Brown, or even a Jonathan Stewart, Rashard Mendenhall, Felix Jones, Chris Wells type, yeah, they’re solid, but were they really worth a first rounder, or a Jahvid Best, Ryan Matthews, CJ Spiller, Mark Ingram type, they’re still young, but there have a pretty slim chance of being McFadden, Peterson, or Johnson.

27(28). Miami Dolphins 0-4

Uh oh, Chad Henne is hurt and possibly done for the season. This is a huge hit to their chances in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes. Credit the Dolphins for trying, they’ve contacted Trent Edwards, Brodie “0-10” Croyle, and Jake “pick six” Delhomme, but none of those look likely right now. They may have to resort to calling up our old pal JaMarcus Russell, because Matt Moore actually played decent (relatively) against San Diego (17-26 for 167 yards and a desperation time pick). He might win them a few games.

26(22). Indianapolis Colts 0-4

Can you win MVP if you don’t play a down, because if you can, Peyton Manning should be the clear winner. In 7 of the past 8 seasons, Peyton Manning has lost a minimum of 4 regular season games. Without him, the Colts have lost 4 in 4 games. The good news for Colts fans (unless they’ve really hoping for Andrew Luck), the schedule does get easier (Kansas City, Cincinnati), and Curtis Painter looked decently enough in his first career start where there’s potential for him to grow into a borderline sort of decent quarterback in the future, or at least one who knows how to utilize all the weapons the Colts have provided for him. They’ll win some games.

25(29). Cincinnati Bengals 2-2

Andy Dalton is having a Jekyll and Hyde type rookie season. He looked solid in the opener against Cleveland in a win, but then didn’t play as well in losses to Denver and San Francisco, before leading a big 2^nd half comeback against the previous 3-0 Bills last week. If Dalton can play well, the Bengals have the right combination of an easy schedule and a strong offensive line and running game to put up a decent wins total, but Dalton just isn’t someone I would trust to do that consistently at this stage in his career.

24(26). Carolina Panthers 1-3

All in favor of renaming Cam Newton “The King of the Backdoor Cover.” The Panthers are 3-0-1 ATS this season, despite a 1-3 record and there’s no one I’d rather have in the league down two scores with the ball against a prevent defense needing a “meaningless” touchdown to cover a line of 7 or fewer than Newton. New Orleans -6 provides his biggest test yet this week. Let’s see if he can keep it up. And this is not a slight on Newton’s abilities. For Newton to even be “The King of the Backdoor Cover” as a rookie is pretty remarkable considering he started just 1 season at Auburn.

23(24). St. Louis Rams 0-4

Sam Bradford might actually die in one of these games. He’s taken 18 sacks in 4 games. That’s actually 3 more than Jay Cutler and it’s not Bradford’s fault. He’s getting the ball out quickly, but this offensive line is not doing their part. What happened to them? Coming into the season they had 2 young, talented bookends in Rodger Saffold and Jason Smith, a big free agent acquisition in Harvey Dahl, and two other solid veterans in Jacob Bell and Jason Brown. Saffold especially has already allowed 7 sacks and 11 quarterback pressures in 4 games, despite only allowing 3 sacks all last year as a rookie.

22(20). Oakland Raiders 2-2

The Raiders thought they had a chance to beat Brady’s bunch, but you can’t turn the ball over in the end zone against them. They’re too good an offensive machine. End zone turnovers normally mean 14 point swings. I know Tom Brady wasn’t at his best last week, but the Patriots were smart and took what the defense was giving to them, which was a lot of yards on the ground. The Raiders rank worst in the league against the run and now have to face a healthy Arian Foster in Houston this week. At least they avoided Andre Johnson, who will miss the week with an injury.

21(18). Chicago Bears 2-2

The Bears beat Carolina last week, but they barely beat a poor Carolina team and they didn’t look very good doing it. Someone stole Mike Martz’ headset and called only running plays (31 runs to 17 to passes) and Matt Forte went off for 205 yards and a score on 25 carries. Cutler (9-17 for 102 yards and a pick) will actually have do to something in future weeks which will mean their offensive line will actually have to protect, so let’s not make too much from this win.

20(17). Cleveland Browns 2-2

This might be the most boring team in the league. They don’t suck, but they’re not good and I don’t think they’re even average. Plus, it’s almost like people have forgotten they exist. Nobody ever says anything about them and to tell you the truth, I can’t think of anything to say about them. They’ll continue to go .500 against crappy teams and they’ll probably struggle against good ones. 6 or 7 wins for them.

19(19). Arizona Cardinals 1-3

The Cardinals could easily be 2-2 right now. That non-fumble call on Victor Cruz late in the New York game that set up New York’s winning touchdown was ridiculous. However, at the same time, they sit at 1-3 and 2 games back of San Francisco, who is coming off of a huge win at Philadelphia, so San Francisco leapfrogs them this week.

18(21). San Francisco 49ers 3-1

As weird as it may sound, San Francisco’s win over Philadelphia wasn’t extremely unpredictable. Philadelphia had the worst turnover margin in the league. San Francisco had the best. That’s why Ronnie Brown backwards “passing” a ball after getting stuffed at the line for a fumble was as predictable as a play as weird as that can be. I didn’t think they could actually win on the road on the East Coast, who I knew they could give them a game. Now they have a 2 game lead with Tampa Bay coming to town. If they start 4-1, the NFC West race might as well be over. 4 wins should clinch it right?

17(23). Tennessee Titans 3-1

It’s tough to tell if this team is sneakily good or sneakily bad. They’re definitely sneakily something. They’re 3-1, but their 3 wins are against Denver, Cleveland, and a Baltimore team they caught off guard. However, at the same time, they’re 3-1 and on a 3 game winning streak and playing what appears to be good football. Needless to say, their game at Pittsburgh this week is going to be huge. If they win that one, they’d be 4-1 heading into a game with Houston for early season divisional dominance.

 

16(16). New York Giants 3-1

This team could be easily 2-2 right now. I already explained the Victor Cruz play. They are 3-1, but I’m not picking them to win the NFC East because they have the right combination of a tough 2^nd half schedule and a team that always sucks in the 2^nd half. They could legitimately be 6-1 heading into New England (Seattle, Buffalo, Miami in their next 3), and still miss the playoffs.

15(14). Dallas Cowboys 2-2

Oops. Maybe I shouldn’t have written about how Tony Romo doesn’t deserve the blame for Dallas’ struggles this season last week. Romo gave the game away last week against Detroit, though he didn’t even have the game biggest brain fart. That came when Felix Jones ran out of bounds on 4^th down short of the sticks with less than 30 seconds left. Come on man!

14(15). Washington Redskins 3-1

Washington leapfrogs Dallas because Dallas looked hideous last week, even though Dallas did beat them the week before. I think Washington wins that game in Dallas. Meanwhile, we didn’t learn a lot about Washington last week because they didn’t play an actual team (St. Louis) and now they go on bye. Dallas always chokes. New York has a brutal 2^nd half. I don’t trust Grossman, which means that Philadelphia is still possibly the favorites in this division. They do have the most talent.

13(13). Pittsburgh Steelers 2-2

People disagreed when I put this time out of the playoff race before the season, but the NFL is a league of parity. Their defense is old. Their offensive line can’t run block or pass block. And they don’t do well after a Super Bowl appearance in the Big Ben era. Besides, Super Bowl runner ups typically struggle. If they lose at home this week to Tennessee, it’s time to hit the panic button. So far they’ve been better at home, but they’ve only played one game there and it was against Seattle.

12(12). Atlanta Falcons 2-2

You think they regret spending all that money on Ray Edwards? Edwards doesn’t have a sack this year and Atlanta has a team has 5, 4 of them coming in the opener against Chicago’s miserable line. Quarterbacks have had forever to throw on them, which is part of the reason why Tardvaris Jackson threw for 319 yards last week and almost completed a big comeback. The other part of it is their actual cornerback play. Brent Grimes has regressed after a breakout year last year in which he picked up the slack for Dunta Robinson, their big money signing. Meanwhile, Robinson has gotten worse this year and they have very little depth at the position.

11(11). Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3-1

It’s never flashy with the Buccaneers, but Josh Freeman always gets it done in the clutch. Some quarterbacks and teams have just a knack for close dramatic wins. If they can go into San Francisco and get a win this week, easier said than done, they’ll be 4-1 and hosting the Saints, who also figure to be 4-1, week 6 in Tampa Bay in a game that obviously could have major playoff implications. Tampa Bay beat New Orleans last year week 17. Let’s see if they can do that again.

10(10). New York Jets 2-2

I think it’s safe to say this is not the same Jets team as last year. Their run defense and pass rush aren’t nearly as good. They can’t run the ball as well and aside from D’Brickashaw Ferguson, every single one of their offensive linemen has had problems, including the always dependable Nick Mangold, who is out with an injury. More pressure had fallen onto the shoulders of Mark Sanchez, who is proving every year that he’s nothing more than Trent Dilfer. He can piggyback a defense to a championship, but if he has to do it himself, you’re in trouble.

9(8). Philadelphia Eagles 1-3

The NFC East is still wide open the way I say it and Philadelphia does have the most talent. Andy Reid teams are typically slow starters so even if they fall 1-4 in Buffalo this week, I don’t think it’s quite panic time for them. They can still put together a 10-6 season and win this division, but they’re running out of chances. They’re in my top 10 still, but on a very short leash.

8(9). Buffalo Bills 3-1

Buffalo actually moves up after a loss to Cincinnati. They were predictably flat against Cincinnati and other teams did worse than them this week. If they can come back and beat Philadelphia, I see no reason why this isn’t still a legitimate 10-6 or 11-5 team. If they can’t, well they could be in some trouble and closer to proving their first 3 games to be a fluke. The AFC is weak enough with Pittsburgh and New York fading and Tennessee still a mystery for Buffalo to make the playoffs with 9 wins.

7(5). Houston Texans 3-1

The Texans fall after a huge win over the Steelers for two reasons. One, and most obviously, Andre Johnson is going to miss at least a week, maybe 3. Their offense and their whole team is not the same without him. The second reason is getting ignored, they shot themselves in the foot a lot, a characteristic of previous Texan teams. First they blow a lead against New Orleans and then they commit 9 penalties, 8 in the first half, against a Pittsburgh team they shouldn’t blown out the way they were moving the ball. They actually had to lead a 115 yard drive to open the game to score, thanks to penalties.

6(6). Detroit Lions 4-0

With the Packers traveling to Atlanta, a very tough place to win, it’s extremely possible that Detroit could be the league’s last undefeated team, just 3 years after they became the first 0-16 team in NFL history. If anyone knows of a local nuclear fallout shelter, please tell me because I have a very bad feeling about the fate of the world in the next week. We might be in trouble.

5(4). Baltimore Ravens 3-1

The Ravens slide a spot after a convincing Sunday Night win over the Jets because Joe Flacco didn’t play well in the game. In fact, you could say he was complete crap. He was 10 of 31 for 163 yards and a pick, but still won by 17 because Mark Sanchez was worse and Flacco’s defense and running game bailed him out. They won’t have a record number of return touchdowns every week, so the Ravens should at least be a little concerned about Flacco.

4(7). San Diego Chargers 3-1

I have a feeling I’m going to be changing the order of San Diego, Baltimore, and Houston every week. With Baltimore and Houston slipping for reasons mentioned before, San Diego moves up. San Diego hasn’t fixed their early season struggles at all, but the schedule makers have gifted them with a ridiculous easily first half schedule. Aside from New England, they’ve played Minnesota (0-4), Kansas City (1-3), and Miami (0-4), and now they have Denver (1-3), a bye, New York (2-2), and Kansas City (1-3). They could end up 5-2 without breaking a sweat and if they can turn it on the 2^nd half like they normally do, this is a 12-4 team with upside heading into the playoffs. Nate Kaeding is on IR so he can’t ruin it all for them this year.

3(3). New Orleans Saints 3-1

Nothing new here. New Orleans took care of business in Jacksonville and will take care of business this week in Carolina. Their real test is Tampa Bay week 6. If they can come out of Tampa Bay with a win, well, I guess I can’t really move them up, but they’ll stabilize their hold on the #3 spot, where they’ve been all season.

2(2). Green Bay Packers 4-0

Same old, same old. In a league where “sportsmanship” seems to mean pulling your starters in a blowout, as if to say, we’ll have mercy on you, I was glad to see Green Bay run up the score against Denver. If you can do it, do it. If you lose by 25+, don’t complain about it. You suck. You deserve. The NFL is not a league of mercy.

1(1). New England Patriots 3-1

I’m keeping the Patriots here until they prove they aren’t the best team in the league. I think they can beat Green Bay on a neutral field in the Super Bowl, and no, one loss to Buffalo didn’t change my mind. Green Bay is going to lose to someone too, at some point. Green Bay actually faces a losable test this week in Atlanta.