9/3/11: Alex Smith has looked absolutely awful this preseason. Maybe he hasn’t been that bad, but his offensive line isn’t doing him any favors either. They played horrifically and that was one part of this team that they were counting on to be at least decent. They have the playmakers offensively, Frank Gore, Braylon Edwards, Vernon Davis, and Michael Crabtree, but if they line and quarterback can’t play well, their offense won’t function well. Defensively, they’re a barren waste field for the most part. This is my pick for the worst team in the league. 

In the prime of the Mike Singletary era (by prime, I mean when people actually thought this team had a shot at making the playoffs), this team was known for its defense. However, the offense has somehow become the team’s best unit and no, it’s not because the offense got that much better. Alex Smith is still their quarterback so that should be all you need to know about that.

Their defense was absolutely ravaged by free agency. They lost 4 starters on defense. Aubrayo Franklin is gone. Takeo Spikes is gone. Nate Clements is gone. Manny Lawson is gone. Lawson will be the easiest to replace. The 49ers spent the 7^th overall pick on Aldon Smith and besides, Lawson was never that great. He never fit the 49ers 3-4 defense because he couldn’t rush the passer to save his life. Smith will be learning a new position and will be hurt by the lockout, but he could lead this team in sacks this season.

In order to replace Aubrayo Franklin, the 49ers are moving Isaac Sopoaga from defensive end to nose tackle, while the mediocre Ray McDonald, who somehow got a 5 year deal this offseason, will start at defensive end. They also plan to use Ricky Jean-Francois, a very inexperienced player, at both positions. They’ll really miss Franklin’s run stuffing, a huge part of the reason why they were 2^nd in the league against the run last year.

Another run stuffer they’ll miss is Takeo Spikes at middle linebacker. Spikes is an older player, but he was still an above average run stuffer last year. The 49ers will try to replace him with Navorro Bowman, a 2010 3^rd round pick, who played alright in limited action as a rookie.

Possibly their biggest loss defensively, however, is Nate Clements. Clements wasn’t worth what they were paying him, but he was their best defensive back. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Carlos Rogers, a marginal and injury prone player. They don’t have a lot of depth. Phillip Adams, a 7^th round pick in 2010, will play in the nickel, while rookie 3^rd round pick Chris Culliver figures to be the 4^th cornerback.

Shawntae Spencer, a marginal player, will move to the left side to be their #1 cornerback, which should be a very bad thought for 49er fans. Spencer allowed a 70.1% completion rate and 4 touchdowns to 3 interceptions last season as the #2 cornerback. He’ll be even worse as the #1 guy. They could be the worst team against the pass next year with their lack of talented pass rushers and defensive backs.

In fact, you could make a case that Patrick Willis and Justin Smith are their only two proven, talented defensive players. Aldon Smith and Navorro Bowman have upside, but those are the only two proven, talented defensive players. Smith, a massively underrated player, starts at the 3^rd defensive line spot next to McDonald and Sopoaga. Smith led the team with 8.5 sacks and 39 quarterback pressures last season and is also a beast against the run.

Willis, meanwhile, is properly rated, but that doesn’t many he’s not an amazing player and arguably the best linebacker in the league. He should once again play like one of, if not the top middle linebacker in the league. Joining Willis at linebacker will be Navorro Bowman, their 2^nd middle linebacker, Aldon Smith, their top rush linebacker, and either Parys Haralson or Ahmad Brooks.

Brooks has never managed more than 6 sacks in a season, while Haralson has only once managed more than 5 in a season. The two combined for 9 sacks last season. Though he wasn’t a starter, Travis LaBoy’s absence will also be felt. LaBoy was only a nickel rusher, but he had 5 sacks and 20 quarterback pressures in only 353 snaps in 2010.

At the safety positions, Donte Whitner, a free agent acquisition is expected to start at strong safety over Taylor Mays, who was recently listed on Craiglist. Whitner was one of the worst coverage safeties in the league last year, but sort of made up for that with strong play against the run. At free safety, a three way battle for the ages (sarcasm) is taking place.

Madieu Williams, another one of the worst coverage safeties in the league last year, is currently winning that battle over the incumbent Dashon Goldson. Young Reggie Smith is likely not going to win it and focus on special teams instead. Goldson isn’t as bad as Williams in coverage, but he’s not great either. He’s a fairly mediocre safety. That’s why no one had any interest in him when the 49ers let him test the open market this offseason.

 

By default, their offense should be their best unit this year. They have an offensive minded offensive Head Coach for the first time in what seems like forever. Jim Harbaugh is an offensive genius, but he’s not a miracle worker so I don’t know how much he can get out of Alex Smith. If Smith struggles, we could see 2^nd round pick rookie Colin Kaepernick, though the 49ers would prefer to wait until 2012 for him to become the starter. Smith has decent talent around him, however.

Frank Gore is a talented lead back who also contributes in the passing game as a receiver. When he inevitably gets hurt, rookie 4^th round pick Kendall Hunter and 2010 5^th round pick Anthony Dixon will split carries. Braylon Edwards will be the #1 receiver. He will be extremely motivated this season and he plays really well when motivated. He didn’t get the long term deal he wanted on the open market. Instead, he got a one year deal with 2.5 million dollars in incentives for making the Pro Bowl. He’ll work his ass off for that 2.5 million and for a long term contract in a more traditional offseason next year.

Talented tight end Vernon Davis gives Alex Smith two talented downfield targets, but Michael Crabtree could struggle this year. Crabtree, once considered a steal at 10 in 2009, is missing his 3^rd straight preseason with an injury. He didn’t work out in the team in the offseason either because he didn’t know who the quarterback was. He’s clearly the 3^rd option on this team, which means he’s not going to catch a lot of balls. Alex Smith isn’t good enough for 3 receivers to get their numbers. That could piss off Crabtree, who has acted like a diva to this point in his career.

The offensive line has its share of problems. One of the 49ers’ rare free agent signings, Jonathan Goodwin replaces David Baas at center. Goodwin was decent last year, but at 33 could easily decline this season, especially with a new team coming out of a lockout. Left tackle Joe Staley is a mediocre talent who belongs on the right side.

Right tackle Anthony Davis, the 11^th overall pick in 2010, was absolutely terrible as a rookie, allowing 11 sacks, 37 quarterback pressures, and committing 10 penalties. He was supposed to be better in his 2^nd year, but he continued to struggle in the 49ers first preseason game. Guards Chilo Rachal and Mike Iupati are the bright spots on this line. Iupati had a strong rookie year and figures to be better this season.

I don’t see a lot of talent on this roster. They have a good offensive minded Head Coach and several talented weapons on offense, but they don’t have the quarterback or the offensive line to be that great of an offense. Meanwhile, their defense was ravaged by free agency and could be one of the league’s worst stop units in 2011, especially against the pass. Their schedule isn’t that hard so they will win some games. Also, somehow this isn’t even the worst team in their division.

Quarterback: D

Running backs: B+

Receiving corps: C+

Offensive line: C-

Run defense: B-

Pass rush: C

Pass coverage: D

Coaching: B

Projection: 3-13 4th in NFC West