9/3/11: The Lions won their last 4 last season to close 6-10, but had a points differential of a team that should have finished 8-8. They added Nick Fairley, Stephen Tulloch, and Justin Durant to their front 7 and they get Matt Stafford back from injury. The questions were, can Stafford stay healthy and is Stafford even that good? Stafford has yet to prove himself as a franchise quarterback after 2 injury plagued seasons after going #1 in 2009. However, he looked amazing this preseason and the Lions as a whole did as well. I’m sneaking them into that 6th playoff spot in the NFC at 10-6.

In 2008, the Lions won no games. If they had forfeited every game, their record would have been the same. However, that seems like a long way away now. Bottoming out was what this team needed after a long stretch of terrible play. Bottoming out allowed them to start fresh with new personnel in the front office (and no more Matt Millen) and at head coach. It also gave them the first pick and allowed them to select their savior, quarterback Matt Stafford out of Georgia.

The Lions won their final 4 games last season to finish 6-10. Their point differential of minus 7 suggests that with better luck (leave it to the Lions to have terrible luck), they really should have been a 7 or 8 win team in 2010. In fact, 7 of their 10 losses came by 8 points or fewer. And this was all without “savior” Matt Stafford, with the exception of 3 games (only finished 1 though).

Stafford is healthy now, but seems to have the toughness of, as one of his teammates put it, a “china doll.” It seems like every time he hits the turf his shoulder separates. Even if Stafford can play a 16 game season, he’s still largely an unknown commodity. He sucked as a rookie, throwing 20 picks to 13 touchdowns, completing just 53.3% of his passes and averaging 6.0 yards per attempt. However, even Peyton Manning sucked as a rookie.

In limited action in 2010, Stafford completed 59.4% of his passes for an average of 5.6 yards per attempt and 6 touchdowns to 1 interception, but that was in very limited action. The point is, there are a lot of unknowns with Stafford. Can he stay healthy? If he even good? However, there’s a lot of upside here and if they can win 6 games with bad luck without him, imagine what they can do if he’s a legitimate franchise quarterback.

You can also add in the fact that the Lions drafted well to the list of reasons why they are sleepers this year. However, those draft picks need to stay healthy. They’ve already lost one of their top 3 draft picks, Mikel Leshoure, for the season. Meanwhile, first round pick Nick Fairley, who was supposed to add to what looks like one of the best front 7s in the league, could be in doubt for the start of the season with a foot injury. Receiver Titus Young is the only one of their top rookies who will definitely be ready for week 1.

Young will man the slot for the Lions, at least to start the season. If marginal veteran Nate Burleson struggles or Young particularly impresses, Young could move into the starting lineup opposite “Megatron” Calvin Johnson. Calvin Johnson is the type of receiver you create in Madden when you want to cheat. You know, when you set all his attributes to 99 and you make him 7 foot tall and 400 pounds, that’s essentially Calvin Johnson.

He doesn’t quite get ranked on the same level as Andre Johnson because he never has had the consistent quarterback Andre has. However, discounting 2009 when he was hurt, he has 155 catches for 2451 yards and 24 touchdowns in his last 2 seasons even though his quarterbacks were Daunte Culpepper, Dan Orlovsky, Jon Kitna, Drew Stanton, Shaun Hill, and 3 games of Matt Stafford (2 of which he didn’t even finish). Stafford is by far the best quarterback of that bunch. He has by far the best arm and is thus best suited to make full use of Megatron’s amazing deep threat abilities. I’m really, really excited to see what Stafford and Johnson can do if both stay healthy. Stafford must be thrilled to have Calvin at his disposal.

At tight end, former 20^th overall pick Brandon Pettigrew is an overrated player, at least as a pass catcher. He’s a good run blocker, however. He did catch 71 passes on 103 targets last year, but he also committed 10 penalties and dropped 12 passes. Stafford won’t look his way as much this season as Shaun Hill and Drew Stanton did last year because Stafford has a stronger arm and will be looking downfield more often.

In two tight end sets, Tony Scheffler comes in. Scheffler was once a talented starting tight end in Denver before Josh McDaniels came in and decided that pass catching tight ends were stupid and shipped him to Detroit for some spare change. Scheffler caught 45 passes last season, but that number should also drop this season. Hill/Stanton threw to tight ends 174 times in 2010. That won’t be the case in 2011 if Stafford can stay healthy.

Speaking of keeping Stafford healthy, a lot of that will fall on the offensive line. Stafford needs to be kept upright. He’s too fragile to take a lot of hits, or at least he’s proved to be that way so far in his career. Left tackle Jeff Backus bounced back from 18 combined sacks allowed in from 2008-2009, rewarding his coach’s blind faith by only allowing 4 sacks in 2010. He is, however, 34 in September and currently hurt. He’s also a free agent, but the Lions passed on drafting his replacement in 2010 because they liked 2010 4^th round pick Jason Fox, as well as Corey Hilliard.

Left guard Rob Sims is a decent pass protector, but like center Dominic Raiola and right guard Stephen Peterman, he is not very good as a run blocker. There’s a reason why this team struggled to run the ball last year. These guys weren’t opening holes. At right tackle, Gosder Cherilus has never lived up to his billing as the 17^th overall pick in 2008 (over Jeff Otah). However, he’s a decent starter, provided he stays healthy.

Running behind this poor run blocking offensive line will be lead back Jahvid Best. Best averaged a mere 3.2 yards per carry in 2010, not entirely his fault. You can blame a lot of that on the line and the rest can be blamed on turf toe sapping the rookie 1^st round pick’s explosiveness. Best is reportedly dropping jaws in training camp once again so he should be poised for a big season.

He’s not a true every down back so the Lions drafted Mikel Leshoure in the 2^nd round. Unfortunately, and rather ironically considering Best was the one with injury problems, Leshoure tore his Achilles in camp and is out for the season. The Lions signed Mike Bell and Jerome Harrison to compete for the #2 back job behind Best, a battle Harrison should definitely win.

Bell has a career average of 3.7 yards per carry, while Harrison rushed for 561 yards and 5 touchdowns in the final 3 games of the 2010 season, lost his starting job to Peyton Hillis the next season and then was traded to Philadelphia where he averaged 6.0 yards per carry as LeSean McCoy’s backup, including 99 yards on 21 carries as the starter week 17. Why this guy is not a starter in this league, I don’t know and I also don’t know why he was available in free agency for so long, but credit the Lions for picking him up. He’s definitely better than Bell, who should be battling with veteran Maurice Morris for the #3 back role.

 

Defensively, one of the things that has so many people so excited about Detroit as a sleeper is their front 7. They had 44 sacks last season and figure to improve upon that total even more this season. Ndamukong Suh had 10 sacks as a defensive tackle as a rookie last year. That’s unheard of. If Sam Bradford wasn’t looking like a franchise quarterback and savior in St. Louis, there would be calls in St. Louis for people to be fired for passing on Suh for Bradford. We shouldn’t expect anything less of Suh this season.

Nick Fairley is supposed to start next to him. Fairley could miss a few games, but he’ll be back sooner rather than later. He’s a rookie and will be hurt by the lockout, but he’s an extremely talented player who had 12.5 sacks for Auburn last season and only dropped because of bullshit “durability issues” (he sounds like he can’t breathe when he talks so maybe that’s why those “issues” exist).

Next to Suh, he should dominate. You won’t be able to stop both of them. They will wreak havoc. Don’t forget, the Lions also have solid players in Corey Williams and Sammie Lee Hill on their depth chart at defensive tackle. They might have the most defensive tackle depth in the league. Gone are the days when this team was starting a 36 year old Grady Jackson at defensive tackle.

At defensive end, the Lions use a rotating trio of Kyle Vanden Bosch, Cliff Avril, and Lawrence Jackson. Vanden Bosch is the veteran of the group. Vanden Bosch turns 33 in November, but he’s a leader on the field and a favorite of Head Coach Jim Schwartz, under whom Vanden Bosch had his best success when Schwartz was the defensive coordinator in Tennessee. He only had 4 sacks last season, but makes up for it by being strong against the run.

Avril is undersized and gets washed against the run, but you take the good with the bad with him. He put up 8.5 sacks and a whopping 43 quarterback pressures last season despite only playing 651 snaps. Lawrence Jackson is currently listed as a 2^nd stringer, but that was the case last season and he still found opportunities to get on the field. The former 1^st rounder was given up on way too soon by Seattle, who sent him to Detroit last offseason. He put up 6 sacks on 337 snaps.

Between their 4 talented defensive tackles and their 3 talented defensive ends, they have 7 talented defensive linemen that they can mix and match and use to really punish opposing quarterbacks. The defensive line was a strength of this team last year and will be a bigger strength next season. However, linebacker, once a strength of this team, was a weakness last season. This season it figures to be a strength once more.

The reason behind their new found strength at the position is two underrated free agent signings, Stephen Tulloch and Justin Durant. Tulloch was 2^nd in the league in tackles last season, yet the Lions were able to get him for a mere 3.35 million over 1 year. He must have taken some kind of discount to play for Jim Schwartz, his former defensive coordinator in Tennessee, because they got him at a bargain. He’ll immediately make a noticeable difference in their linebacking corps and he’s familiar with Schwartz’ system, a plus coming out of a lockout shortened offseason.

Justin Durant, meanwhile, comes over from Jacksonville. He’s a talented player when healthy, but he’s never played more than 14 games in a season missing 14 games in his 4 years as a pro. If, and when, he gets hurt, rookie linebacker Doug Hogue, a 5^th rounder out of Syracuse, could step into the lineup. Durant and Tulloch combine with DeAndre Levy to form a very formidable linebacking group. Levy, an incumbent starter from 2010, was the lone bright spot at the position for the Lions in 2010 and figures to have another strong season in 2011. There are simply no holes in their front 7. They have more defensive line depth than any team in the league, depth the coaching staff knows how to use effectively.

The Lions are hoping their pass rush and their overall strength up front can mask their deficiencies in the secondary. Despite 44 sacks, they still ranked 26^th against the pass thanks to terrible coverage. Chris Houston could be an adequate #2 cornerback in the league, but he had to be their #1 last year because Alphonso Smith and Nathan Vasher split time as the #2 cornerbacks. Neither of them were very good.

The Lions signed Eric Wright in free agency to be their new #2 cornerback. Wright, however, had the 2^nd worst quarterback rating against of any eligible cornerback in the league last year, only behind Dallas’ Michael Jenkins. Wright surrendered a 66.5% completion percentage and 6 touchdowns to 1 interception. He is still just 26 and he’s been better in the past so maybe a change of scenery and a better pass rush in front of him is all he needs to become a legitimate starter again. Even if that happens, the Lions won’t have a legitimate #1 cornerback, so they should struggle in pass coverage once again.

Louis Delmas, a 2009 2^nd round pick, is the most talented of their defensive backs. He’s not great against the pass, but he’s not terrible either and his strength is against the run. Meanwhile, at strong safety, CC “Cant Cover” Brown is no longer the starter, very good news. However, that’s where the good news ends. 2010 3^rd round pick Amari Spievey will start at the position this year. He struggled mightily as a rookie. He could bounce back in his 2^nd season, but I have doubts about his ability to do so.

The Lions are many people’s top sleeper for 2011. I think it’s best to temper expectations right now for them. They did play well enough to be an 8-8 team in 2010 and they are getting quarterback Matt Stafford back from injury, but people act like the only question mark with Stafford is his health. It’s not. Plenty of #1 overall quarterbacks have busted before. We’re skeptical about guys like Cam Newton and Sam Bradford after they get drafted, but we seem to be giving Stafford a free pass even though he’s yet to prove himself one way or another.

I’m not going to predict the playoffs for the Lions, though I’ll admit I could easily be wrong. If Stafford can play 16 games and be a legitimate franchise quarterback for them, they could easily win 11 games and make the playoffs as a wild card and be a tough first round out. They have enough non-quarterback talent to do that. However, I’m going conservative with my prediction for them this season.

Quarterback: B-

Running backs: B-

Offensive line: C+

Receiving corps: B

Run defense: B

Pass rush: A

Pass coverage: C-

Coaching: B-

Projection: 10-6 2^nd in NFC North