After losing the Super Bowl in 2003, the Raiders endured 7 straight seasons of 11 losses or more. Last year, they rose to 8-8. This year, I’m projecting a regression for several reasons. First, they lost a significant part of their team in free agency. Nnamdi Asomugha was their best player, hands down. He’s gone. Zach Miller was their best offensive player, hands down. He’s gone. Robert Gallery was their best offensive lineman, hands down. He’s gone.

On top of that, they rewarded Kamerion Wimbley and Michael Huff with giant deals after career seasons. It’s very possible both of them don’t try as hard this season as they did last season. It’s normally a bad sign when a player conveniently has a career season in his contract year, especially when they haven’t been living up to their potential to that point in their career.

They also gave Richard Seymour a big contract. He’s known for being lazy after signing big deals and he’s 32 in October anyway. Also, they have another new Head Coach. Not only is this bad for continuity’s sake, but Tom Cable was the only Raider coach since 2002 to win more than 5 games. Of course it’s a bad thing that he’s gone.

The Raiders have their best quarterback since making the Super Bowl in Jason Campbell, though that isn’t saying much. Campbell is a fairly mediocre signal caller who will never be anything more than adequate in this league, but after Andrew Walter, Aaron Brooks, and JaMarcus Russell, adequate is like future Hall of Famer to Raiders fans.

On the offensive line, the Raiders could start as many as 4 players with one year or less or experience, and I don’t think they’ll start fewer than 3 such players. 2010 3^rd round pick Jared Veldheer will start at left tackle. Veldheer struggled as a rookie, but he was a rookie, but he was playing out of position for most of the season. 2010 4^th round pick Bruce Campbell will attempt to beat out mediocre veteran Roy Schuening at left guard. Campbell played a mere 10 snaps as a rookie last year, so he’s an unknown commodity.

Rookie 2^nd round pick Stefen Wisniewski will start at center, while rookie 3^rd round pick Joseph Barksdale is expected to start at right tackle. The only experienced player on the offensive line could be Cooper Carlisle, who sucks. Basically, this line isn’t going to be that great. They’re very inexperienced coming out of a lockout shortened offseason and they lost their best offensive lineman, Robert Gallery. They also lost Tom Cable, their Head Coach who worked very closely with the offensive line and had a positive impact.

At running back, the Raiders have a two headed attack of Darren McFadden and Michael Bush. However, McFadden has a history of injury problems so he’s no guarantee. If he’s hurt, Bush would be the lead back and rookie 4^th round pick Taiwan Jones would see an increase in carries. Overall, their running game should be worse this season than last season because I don’t trust McFadden to stay healthy once again. This is also another area where losing Robert Gallery hurts.

Tight end Zach Miller was their best offensive player. He’s gone, replaced with Kevin Boss. Boss is a nice player, a good blocker, and a big end zone target, but he’s not Zach Miller. They are expected to go to more two-tight end sets this season which means Brandon Myers will see a lot of the field. Receiver is an interesting position. Jacoby Ford is their most talented receiver and he closed 2010 well, but he’s hurt and will probably miss all of training camp and the preseason.

The first string receivers are currently Ford and Darrius Heyward Bey, who is only still starting because they spent the 7^th overall pick on him in 2009 and don’t want to admit defeat. DHB has a mere 35 catches in 2 seasons. Louis Murphy, a 3^rd year receiver who is a solid #2, should play in the slot, but he too has injury problems right now. Chaz Schilens is an intriguing player as their 4^th receiver, as is rookie Denarius Moore, currently listed as their 5^th receiver. Moore has been a training camp wonder.

 

Defensively, they will really, really miss Nnamdi Asomugha and not just in coverage, in pass rush. The Raiders had 47 sacks last year, but no one had double figure sacks. Kamerion Wimbley led the way with 9. Tommy Kelly and Matt Shaughnessy had 7. Richard Seymour had 5.5. LaMarr Houston had 5. They don’t have a legitimate #1 pass rusher, yet they were able to get a lot of sacks. How is this possible? Asomugha’s coverage led to many “coverage sacks” meaning sacks that only happened because the quarterback had to spend so much time looking for an open receiver. Expect their pass rush to suffer without Asomugha.

I’m also expecting down years from both Seymour and Wimbley. Both just got paid and Seymour is 32 in October. That will also hurt their pass rush. They had 47 sacks in 2010. It wouldn’t surprise me if they had somewhere around 35 next season.

On the defensive line, Richard Seymour starts at tackle next to Tommy Kelly. 2^nd year end LaMarr Houston plays on the left side, while Matt Shaughnessy mans the right side. 2^nd year middle linebacker Rolando McClain is very talented and, while I’m predicting a down year from Kamerion Wimbley, he should still be an above average strong side linebacker. The weak side is the hole right now. Quentin Groves is starting there, though the Raiders are trying to sign Lofa Tatupu in free agency.

While Asomugha’s loss will hurt the pass rush, it will especially hurt the secondary. The Raiders ranked 19^th against the pass last year, in terms of yards per attempt. That was in spite of Asomugha and a strong pass rush. That number should be a lot worse without Nnamdi. Stanford Routt, who got 5.5 million dollar less over 5 years than Nnamdi did in Philadelphia because Al Davis is a moron, will be the #1 cornerback for them this season. Routt only allowed a 42.4% completion rate, but he allowed 4 touchdowns to 1 interception and committed 11 penalties. He’ll find life much harder as a #1 cornerback, as opposed to a #2.

Chris Johnson is going to be the #2 cornerback because rookies DeMarcus Van Dyke and Chimdi Chekwa aren’t ready. Johnson is not a very good cornerback either. There’s a reason why they ranked so low against the pass even with Nnamdi and a high number of sacks. At free safety, Michael Huff was probably just playing for a new contract and will likely revert back to his pre-2010 self now that he got paid. He should be an average, maybe above average safety.

Meanwhile, strong safety Tyvon Branch had the worst quarterback rating against of any qualified defensive back in the league last year. He allowed 7 touchdowns to one interception and a completion percentage of 74.3% with an average of over 14 yards per completion. He’s not nearly good enough against the run to make up for that.

I hope Raider fans enjoyed their one season of adequacy because this year looks like it’s going to be more of the same inadequacy that they’re used to. They lost three key players in free agency and resigned guys who had break out years in their contract year to long term deals, which means we could see inferior play from those guys this season. On top of that, they have a new head coach, a very young offensive line, a very young group of receivers, an injury prone #1 running back, and a quarterback who doesn’t do anything special.

Another unfortunate stat for the Raiders. Since 2002, 10 teams have gone 6-0 in their division, as the Raiders did last season. Of those 10 teams, 8 of them finished with a worse record the next season for a combined 35 fewer wins. The two teams with better records both finished just 1 game better. 

Quarterback: C-

Running backs: A-

Receiving corps: C

Offensive line: D

Run defense: C

Pass rush: B-

Pass coverage: C-

Coaching: C

Projection: 4-12 4^th in AFC West