Joe Flacco has more wins in his first 3 seasons than any quarterback not named Dan Marino, but there is one thing he’s yet to do and that’s beat Ben Roethlisberger. Flacco has beaten the Steelers twice in those 3 years, but that was when Ben was out of the lineup. Roethlisberger has gotten the best of Flacco in all 6 of their matchups, including twice in the playoffs. Roethlisberger and the Steelers over Joe Flacco and the Ravens was how Baltimore’s season ended last year.

If Flacco is ever going to win a Super Bowl, he’s going most likely going to have to beat Roethlisberger. He’s got a very good shot to do so this season, week 1. The Steelers are Super Bowl runner ups and Super Bowl runner ups typically disappoint in the following season and typically do badly in their season opener. The Steelers also have a history of struggling after making the Super Bowl and they had a lot of offseason distractions. Plus, the game is Baltimore.

If the Ravens can win that game, they might not look back. This is one of the most talented teams in the league and if they can just get over the hump and beat their archrivals, they have the talent to win the division and make a deep playoff run. They did win 12 games last year, remember, though they lost the division to those Steelers. If they do that again this year, they’ll win this division.

Flacco is supported by some solid talent offensively. They had one of the best run blocking lines in the league last year and one of the league’s best running backs in Ray Rice. Rice is also one of, if not the best pass catching back in the league, a huge part of this offense. He will be backed up by Ricky Williams, a talented #2 back. At fullback, they have the league’s best fullback, Vonta Leach.

On the line, Michael Oher starts at left tackle. He had a fantastic rookie season at right tackle, but when he moved to the blindside last year with Jared Gaither hurt, the protagonist of “The Blindside” struggled in pass protection. Hopefully for Flacco, he’ll be better there this year. Opposite Oher, Gaither is gone, but 3^rd round rookie Jah Reid will start at right tackle. He could struggle a bit as a rookie, especially given this lockout. If he does, right guard Marshal Yanda could move outside to right tackle, but then the question would be, who plays at right guard? Do they try Reid there? Do they promote backup Oniel Cousins. The loss of Chris Chester in free agency could end up hurting them.

At center, veteran Matt Birk is expected to start, though he could miss week 1 with a knee injury. At his age, an injury is a huge worry, though centers typically have long shelf lives in the NFL. They have mulled bringing in free agent center Casey Rabach as insurance, a smart idea because undrafted rookie center Ryan Bartholomew is currently 2^nd on the depth chart. At left guard, Ben Grubbs is the only non-question mark on the line. Grubbs is a punishing run blocker and has only allowed 3 sacks in the last 2 seasons combined.

Their receiving corps is also a bit of a question. Anquan Boldin is their #1 receiver. The problem is he’s never proved himself as a #1 guy. He put up nice stats as the #2 to Larry Fitzgerald in Arizona, but as the guy in Baltimore last year, he struggled, especially down the stretch. In his final 10 games, including the playoffs, Boldin had 30 catches for 353 yards and 3 touchdowns, hardly #1 receiver stats. He’s 31 in October so he’s not going to get any better.

Opposite him, veteran Derrick Mason is gone. The Ravens traded a 4^th rounder for Lee Evans recently so he is expected to start. Evans was a talented receiver who possibly just needed a change of scenery in his prime to be recognized as one of the best receivers in the league. Unfortunately, Evans might have gotten his change of scenery too late. The veteran receiver is declining at this point in his career and doesn’t look to have much left, though maybe having Joe Flacco to throw him will prove me wrong.

2^nd round rookie Torrey Smith is expected be the slot receiver. Rookie receivers typically struggle and this lockout won’t help. The good news is that Smith will give them the deep threat they lacked last season and he could become a productive player by late in the season and the playoffs, like Emmanuel Sanders did for the Steelers last season.

At tight end, oft injured veteran Todd Heap is gone, but 2^nd year tight ends Dennis Pitta and Ed Dickson should more than fill his void. Between those two tight ends and Ray Rice, Flacco has 3 very good possession receivers, and Boldin still has something left in the tank, but they need a deep threat to step up on the outside. Flacco has one of the strongest arms in the league, but you aren’t maximizing his value unless you have someone to catch his deep throws.

 

Overall, this team isn’t going to win the division because of their offense. They have a winner at the helm who can make the deep throws, but what they are known for is their defense and they once again have one of the league’s best defenses. Terrell Suggs at rush linebacker, Ray Lewis at middle linebacker, Ed Reed at safety, and Haloti Ngata at 3-4 defensive end all are among the league’s best defensive players.

Suggs and Ngata combined for 16.5 sacks last season, but the rest of the team combined for a mere 10.5. They need a 3^rd pass rusher to step up. Arthur Jones has surpassed Cory Redding on the depth chart and will start opposite Ngata at end and Jarrett Johnson will do the same at rush linebacker opposite Suggs. Jones, once a first or second round talent who slipped to the 5^th with injury concerns in 2010, is now fully healthy and could easily step up as that 3^rd pass rusher. However, Johnson had 1.5 sacks last year and he’s never had more than 6 sacks in his career so there’s not a lot of upside with him.

The Ravens are hoping Sergio Kindle can take the nickel rusher job and become a force for them rushing the quarterback. Kindle, a 2^nd round pick in 2010, didn’t play a snap last season after a scary fractured skull injury. Fortunately, that injury didn’t end up ending his career. He’ll be someone to watch in the preseason for them.

Kindle is not the only 2010 2^nd round pick expected to make an impact for this defense. Terrence Cody will start at nose tackle with veteran Kelly Gregg gone. He’s had weight problems in the past so we’ll see how he handles playing a lot of snaps this season. If he can, he’ll be a defensive force them in the middle of that 3-4 line.

If he can’t, I don’t know what they’ll do. They don’t have a proven nose tackle on the roster. Haloti Ngata would probably have to move inside and Cory Redding, a marginal player and an incumbent starter on the line, would play end. 2009 2^nd round pick Paul Kruger or rookie 5^th rounder Pernell McPhee could also play end. McPhee will be hurt by the lockout and Kruger, once a promising prospect, has done next to nothing in 2 years in the league.

Of course, you can’t talk about this defense without talking about Ray Lewis. He seems to be an ageless wonder. Lewis, now 36, is still playing at a Pro-Bowl level. The issue is who will play next to him inside at middle linebacker. Jameel McClain is a marginal player. He is penciled in as the starter once again while Tavares Gooden and Dannell Ellerbe wait in the wings.

Though they use a 3-4 base defense, they do play some 4-3. In a 4-3 alignment, Haloti Ngata moves inside with Terrence Cody. Terrell Suggs plays on the line, where he also plays well. Arthur Jones is the left end in this alignment. Their 3 linebackers are Jarrett Johnson, a much better player in a 4-3, Ray Lewis in the middle, and then Jameel McClain rounding things out.

At corner, they lost talented #2 corner Josh Wilson in free agency, but they resigned Chris Carr, a talented #1. Lardarius Webb will step into the starting lineup in place of Wilson. He is now fully healthy. They also have first round pick Jimmy Smith as their #3 cornerback. In a league where so many teams go 3 deep at wide receiver, it’s very valuable for this team to go 3 deep at cornerback. They had the 2^nd best pass defense in the league last year, and it wouldn’t surprise me if they did that again.

At safety, Ed Reed is one of the league’s best players, when he’s healthy. Reed has missed 10 games in the last 2 seasons, but led the league with 8 picks last year despite missing the first 6 games of the season. However, if he goes down with an injury, all of a sudden this safety unit looks pretty bleak. 3 marginal players, free agent acquisition Bernard Pollard and top backups Haruki Nakamura and Tom Zbikowski, will compete for Dawan Landry’s old spot at strong safety. Landry signed in Jacksonville this offseason and was one of the best run stuffing safeties in the league last year.

Overall, this team does have some holes. However, they have plenty of talent on the defensive end and good leadership and a good running game on the offensive end. They aren’t an elite team, but they’re one of the best 2^nd tier teams in the league and with the Steelers having a down year, according to my predictions, that should be enough to win the division. I don’t consider them a legitimate Super Bowl contender, but at the same time, it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if they did win it all.

Quarterback: B

Running backs: A-

Receiving corps: C+

Offensive line: B-

Pass rush: C+

Run defense: A-

Pass coverage: A

Coaching: B-

Projection: 12-4 1^st in AFC North