Last season:
Overall picks: 175-92 (.654)
ATS Picks: 142-118-7 (+$4970)
Lock picks: 12-5
Upset picks: 35-36 (+1668)
Total money: +6638
Green Bay Packers 23 New Orleans Saints 20
Spread: Green Bay -4
Pick against spread: Green Bay 2 units (-220)
Green Bay. New Orleans. What a way to start the season as the previous 2 Super Bowl champs square off against each other in a game that could very well be a preview of this year’s NFC Championship. As has been custom over the past few years, the defending Super Bowl champs, the Packers, will open up the season at home on a Thursday night. Defending champs are 8-0 straight up in this spot since the NFL made this tradition in 2003, but it’s worth noting that the road team has covered the spread in each of the last two years.
The Saints, in this spot last year, scored a mere 14 points. Pittsburgh in 2009 scored 13. The Giants in 2008, 16. The early season jitters have been there in recent years. The Packers haven’t been in this spot before, while the Saints have played in an opening night game 3 times in the Drew Brees/Sean Peyton era. They’ve scored a combined 24 points in their first two games (1-1), but maybe the third time will be the charm for this offense. They’re certainly better prepared for this game than the Packers given that experience.
Speaking of better prepared, the Saints were the team that spent the offseason practicing together, while the Packers were one of the few who didn’t. They also did all the traditional Super Bowl things, reveling in their glory, as they deserve to. However, there’s a reason why no defending champ has won a playoff game since 2004. You just don’t want it as much in your repeat year. Just ask the Saints, who lost in the first round last year.
The Saints, meanwhile, now have the chip on their shoulder. Everyone is talking about the Packers and the Eagles in the NFC and Atlanta and Tampa Bay are getting a lot of buzz out of their own division. The Saints have quietly had a nice offseason, beefing up their running game with Mark Ingram, their offensive line with Olin Kreutz, and their defensive line with Aubrayo Franklin and Cameron Jordan.
Drew Brees is healthy now after a knee injury caused him to throw a career high in interceptions and the Saints worked out harder than anyone this offseason. Drew Brees funded the workouts out of his own pocket. That desire to win has to rub off on the rest of this team. As the quarterback goes, so does the team.
I do think the Packers continue that winning streak of opening night home teams. However, this isn’t an even spread. The Saints are underdogs by over a field goal, 4 points. Drew Brees is 30-19 against the spread as an underdog in his career and the spread is large enough where I feel comfortable picking the Saints to win against the spread, but not straight up. I think this will be a game decided by a field goal, probably a lower scoring game than is expected as well because opening night games tend to be.
Baltimore Ravens 13 Pittsburgh Steelers 10
Spread: Baltimore -1
Pick against spread: Baltimore 3 units (+300)
Pittsburgh is coming off of losing the Super Bowl. There’s something known as the Super Bowl loser curse. 3 of the last 10 Super Bowl runner ups have missed the playoffs and even the Colts weren’t immune to this so called curse. They didn’t miss the playoffs or anything, but they finished a mere 10-6, their first season of less than 12 wins since 2002. They also started 6-6 and lost their opener to division rival Houston, a team they had beaten 14 of their last 16 meetings.
This situation looks earlier similar. The Steelers are coming off a Super Bowl loss. Super Bowl runner ups are 3-14 against the spread week 1 in the last 17 instances, but Joe Flacco has never beaten Ben Roethlisberger in his career, a stretch spanning 6 instances. Like last year with the Colts/Texans, I expect the former to prevail in this battle of trends and the Steelers to lose, especially since the Steelers have been especially bad after making the Super Bowl in the Ben Roethlisberger era, missing the playoffs after both instances.
Besides, let’s look at those 6 Flacco/Roethlisberger matchups. 23-20 (OT), 13-9, 23-14, 23-20, 13-10, 31-24. It’s not like Roethlisberger has been blowing out Flacco or anything. It’s always just been one thing that goes wrong for Flacco. With some better luck, Flacco could have easily won 1 or 2 of those games. In fact, just last postseason Flacco was leading for a while before everything started going wrong. I’m not completely confident the Ravens win here against an even spread, but I’m picking them here for 3 units.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28 Detroit Lions 23
Spread: Tampa Bay -1
Pick against spread: Tampa Bay 1 unit (-110)
The Buccaneers were the break out team of last season going from 4 wins in 2009 to 10 wins last season, almost making the playoffs and knocking off division rival New Orleans week 17. Everyone is expecting Detroit to be this year’s Tampa Bay. However, that’s the problem. Everyone is expecting it. No one was expecting Tampa Bay to do what they did last year. Detroit sent a message to the league week 3 of the preseason. They’re going to be prepared for like a playoff team this season, by every team, and that includes Tampa Bay.
Speaking of not sneaking up on anyone, Tampa Bay won’t have that advantage this season either. Everyone will be prepared for them like a playoff team as well and, with a tougher schedule, that should predict a down season for them. However, the key word there is should. Tampa Bay got better as the season went on last year.
After LeGarrette Blount took over as the starting running back week 6, they lost 4 games the rest of the way, going 7-4 and not losing by more than a touchdown, hanging within a touchdown of Atlanta twice, Baltimore, and these Lions when they were in the middle of their late season 4 game winning streak. They also added three front 7 starters through the draft in Adrian Clayborn, DaQuan Bowers, and Mason Foster. Gerald McCoy, Cody Grimm, and Aqib Talib are back from the injuries they dealt with late last season, as is Brian Price, but he’s still out of shape and won’t be a big impact for a while.
I don’t really know what to do with this game. Detroit won last year in Tampa Bay, but it was close. It’s in Tampa Bay and these teams are about even talent wise. I have Detroit going 10-6 and Tampa Bay going 9-7, but with a tougher schedule. This line should be -3, to account simply for Tampa Bay’s home field advantage, but it’s -1, an even line. I’m going with Tampa Bay for a small play on that basis and because I had them winning this game in my season preview.
Atlanta Falcons 27 Chicago Bears 13
Spread: Atlanta -2.5
Pick against spread: Atlanta 2 units (-220)
I have a rule of thumb of not over thinking things. If I think a team is better than the other one, with home field advantage factored in, I don’t pay any attention to the line if it’s 2.5 or less. 1 point and 2 point games do happen in this league, but they’re very rare. I think Atlanta is the better team here, hell, I have them going to the Super Bowl. I think they’re so improved from last season and fixed all the flaws that were exposed late last season as they went from 12-2 to losing in their first playoff game.
They fixed their pass rush by signing a legitimate 2nd pass rusher in Ray Edwards. Edwards, John Abraham, and Jonathan Babineaux form a very formidable pass rush and if 2009 1st round pick Peria Jerry is finally over his injuries, with former starter Corey Peters in the mix, they could have one of the best pass rushes in the league. They added more big plays guys on offense with Julio Jones and Jacquizz Rodgers. Jones is a rookie receiver, but he was well coached in a Pro Style offense at Alabama and he looked good in the preseason so he won’t be hurt by the lockout all that much. They also were able to return most of their starting offensive line.
Buffalo Bills 23 Kansas City Chiefs 17 (+195)
Spread: Kansas City -5.5
Pick against spread: Buffalo 5 units (+500)
This one needs to be locked in ASAP. Matt Cassel is 50/50 to miss week 1 with a cracked rib and Tyler Palko would start in his absence. I like the Bills to beat the Chiefs straight up even if Cassel plays. The Chiefs are incredibly overrated and looked awful in the preseason and to end last season, while the Bills are one of the few teams returning all of their coordinators, their head coach, and their starting quarterback, an advantage coming out of the lockout. However, this line has yet to shift much despite Cassel’s injury. It was 6.5 and now it’s 5.5. Tyler Palko -5.5 over anyone is an easy bet and if Cassel does play, I still like this bet.
Houston Texans 28 Indianapolis Colts 21
Spread: Houston -9
Pick against spread: Indianapolis 4 units (-440)
Well it looks like Peyton Manning is going to miss week 1. This line jumped from -5.5 to -9 Sunday with news that a Colts source said Manning could miss up to 4-5 weeks. I’ve had the Texans winning this the whole time, but all of a sudden, the Colts look like a pretty lucrative bet. The Colts fit the bill of a playoff caliber team starting a backup quarterback.
In the first game with a backup quarterback, this is a pretty lucrative betting spot. The logic is the opponent will take a sigh of relief that the starter isn’t playing and expect to coast to victory, ignoring that the playoff caliber team does have other talent. Meanwhile, the team missing its starter will have a chip on their shoulder and something to prove. Remember the Steelers without Big Ben last year. Similar situation. I especially like betting against Houston in this situation because they aren’t well coached.
Besides, this is a divisional game and betting a divisional underdog of 7+ is normally a smart idea because divisional games tend to be close. These teams know each other inside and out. This is especially true week 1. Divisional dogs of 3.5+ are 20-9 week 1 since 2000.
St. Louis Rams 30 Philadelphia Eagles 27 (-100)
Spread: Philadelphia -4.5
Pick against spread: St. Louis 4 units (-440)
Ah the dream team. The dream team that can’t protect its quarterback’s blindside, a very bad thing when the quarterback can’t read blitzes. Jeremy Maclin is also expected to be sluggish for this game after dealing with major illness in the offseason and not working out or practicing with the team. Vick can’t read blitzes. His line can’t protect. And the Rams can get to the quarterback as good as anyone in the league and frequently dial up the blitz.
Meanwhile, the Rams are a much improved team this offseason, yet the Eagles might see them as just another 2011 non-playoff team as they look forward to New York, a divisional rival, and the Falcons, a very talented team, in the next 2 weeks. It’s the perfect example of a trap game and I especially love that it’s the Eagles, who frequently fall into trap games. On top of all this, Andy Reid tends to struggle in season opener while the Rams had a very good home record last season and Sam Bradford for his career is 7-4 as an underdog.
Cleveland Browns 21 Cincinnati Bengals 10
Spread: Cleveland -6.5
Pick against spread: Cleveland 1 unit (-110)
This was a game I wasn’t too sure about. I have Cleveland winning 9 games because I think Colt McCoy will develop into a top 15 quarterback, but what if he doesn’t? This team still has a ton of holes and could easily go 6-10 and the Browns would fit the mold of a 6 win or less team favored by 6+, a situation teams are 22-61 against the spread in. Also, Cincinnati is a big underdog in a divisional game week 1, a situation teams are 20-9 against in the spread in since 2000.
However, I say screw all that. Sometimes you have to look past the trends to see that Cincinnati does not deserve to have any money bet on them right now. Their receiver corps consists of a rookie wide out coming out of a lockout, a receiver who had most of his career stats in the last 3 weeks of last season, a 2nd year in slot receiver, a 2nd year tight end, and career backup depth receiver.
They have a rookie quarterback, coming out of a lockout, and not just any rookie quarterback, but a 2nd round rookie. 2nd/3rd round rookie quarterbacks never do well in their first season in the league. They never do well in general in fact. Only three of the starting quarterbacks in the league right now (other than Dalton of course) were 2nd/3rd rounders, Brees, Schaub, and Kolb and all 3 sat early in their career.
They also have a new offensive coordinator coming out of a lockout and their starting running back averaged 3.5 yards per carry last season and was recently released from prison. Defensively, things aren’t much better. They don’t have a 2nd pass rusher after Carlos Dunlap, who is known for only producing when no one believes in him, and they’ll miss Johnathan Joseph, who left as a free agent to Houston. If not for San Francisco, this would be the worst team in the league. Unless they’re facing a team that I project go 6-10 or worse favored by 6+, I don’t think I’ll be betting on Cincinnati for a while.
Tennessee Titans 20 Jacksonville Jaguars 16 (-100)
Spread: Jacksonville -3
Pick against spread: Tennessee 2 units (+200)
Jacksonville is a home favorite of less than 3 in a divisional game. In the opening week, when a line is 3 or less, the favorite has a big advantage, 15-5 ATS in that situation since 2000, when it’s a divisional game. When the line is 3.5 or more, the underdog is 20-9 ATS. However, Jacksonville is not very good as a home favorite. Since 2008, they are 4-11 as home favorites. Basically, when they’re supposed to win, they don’t. That’s how this team works. Plus, I feel Tennessee is the better team anyway.
New York Giants 28 Washington Redskins 13
Spread: NY Giants -3
Pick against spread: NY Giants 3 units (-330)
A lot of people seem to think the Giants will struggle this season. I agree with them. They seem to lose someone to injury every 5 minutes and Dallas and Philadelphia are both improved. However, I think they’ll be good to start the season again. They always are. In the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning era, they are 41-15 in the first half of the season and 24-32 in the 2nd half. That’s a difference of 17 games. That’s no fluke.
The book on the Giants since Coughlin took over has always been they’ve had talented teams, but they always collapse in the 2nd half and they always commit a ton of turnovers. They were top 10 in passing offense and defense and run offense and defense, yet they missed the playoffs because they led the league in turnovers and collapsed late after a 6-2 start (DeSean Jackson says hello).
The Giants have a little bit less talent this season than last, but they’re still a talented bunch. Eli Manning is one of the top 10 or 12 quarterbacks in the league. They run the ball well and Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham on the outside at receiver are very underrated. They also get after the quarterback as well as anyone in the league, even with Osi Umenyiora out with an injury. I like them to continue their early season dominance with a win here against a mediocre to decent Washington team.
Arizona Cardinals 20 Carolina Panthers 14
Spread: Arizona -7
Pick against spread: Carolina 1 unit (+0)
Cam Newton makes his season debut here and has to travel 3 time zones to play the Cardinals in Arizona. An east coast team playing on the west coast is not at as much of a disadvantage as a west coast team on the east coast, especially at a 1 AM ET start, but they’ll still be at a disadvantage.
However, we’re not just picking winners here, we’re picking against the spread. I don’t think Arizona deserves to be favored just yet. They have the most talented of the new starting quarterbacks in the NFL this year, but Kevin Kolb is still a new starting quarterback coming out of a lockout. He’ll have great chemistry with Larry Fitzgerald since they worked out together this offseason and they’re basically best friends and that’s half the battle, but what about the other half? They could struggle early in the season.
On top of that, they can’t get to the quarterback or protect their own quarterback, a bad combination. I don’t know why so many people have been quick to anoint them as a legitimate playoff team this year. I have them making the playoffs, but only because their schedule is full of easy games like this one against Carolina. I’m taking the rookie and the points in the opener here.
San Francisco 49ers 13 Seattle Seahawks 10
Spread: San Francisco -5.5
Pick against spread: Seattle 3 units (-330)
The 49ers suck. The Seahawks suck too, but the 49ers are favored by 5.5 points. Bad teams getting favored by 6+ is a lucrative betting situation. Simply put, terrible teams have no business being big favorites. Teams that finish 6-10 or worse are 22-61 against the spread when favored as 6+ points. This line is only 5.5, so I’m not putting 4 or 5 on this game, but I have a hard time seeing San Francisco winning this game by more than 3 or 4, even at home.
On top of all this, both offenses suck, which means this should be an ugly low scoring game and low scoring games typically have small margin of victories. It’s also a divisional game and divisional games tend to be close. Divisional underdogs of 3.5+ are 20-9 on opening weekend since 2000. Besides, Frank Gore had 38 yards rushing in a game against the Seahawks last year. If he does that again, simply put, the 49ers are screwed. They might not cross midfield all night and still win 7-3 on a Tarvaris Jackson pick six. I still have the 49ers winning at home with the better quarterback, somehow, and I just can’t see Seattle winning anywhere on the road this season, but I’m going with the underdog against the spread.
San Diego Chargers 27 Minnesota Vikings 20
Spread: San Diego -9
Pick against spread: Minnesota 1 unit (+100)
In my season predictions, I predicted San Diego wouldn’t struggle to start this season like they had early in previous seasons. My reasoning behind that was that they always had made the playoffs after struggling early, but last year they didn’t. Contrary to popular belief, this is a competitive team. Philip Rivers is an extreme competitor and the rest of the team follows, but their head coach is a complete dunce. You know they had to hate sitting home watching the playoffs instead of losing in round 1 on a missed Nate Kaeding field goal.
Because of this, I expect them to give extra effort early this season to make sure they start out strong. I still won’t predict them to go very far in the playoffs, but I think they start this season strong. Still, something about picking San Diego favored by 7+ week 1 just doesn’t sit well with me, even though they are at home. At the same time, when San Diego is right, they blow people out with ease and Minnesota doesn’t have a very good team this season, so I don’t feel too comfortable betting them either. This is going to be 1 unit on the points.
Dallas Cowboys 31 New York Jets 27 (+180)
Spread: Dallas -4.5
Pick against spread: Dallas 3 units (+300)
Ryan. Ryan. This is a battle of Rex Ryan and his twin brother Rob, who has been in the spotlight a lot this offseason for trash talking (what else?) the Eagles after coming over as a coordinator from Cleveland. Both offenses will be very familiar with each other’s schemes. There are no secrets in this game and besides, both teams’ offenses practice against the type of defensive scheme they’ll be faced with in this game. That should make for a very well coached, high scoring game.
That style of play favors the Cowboys. Tony Romo is the better quarterback and he’ll work with Miles Austin, Dez Bryant, and Jason Witten, whereas Mark Sanchez will be throwing to Santonio Holmes, a washed up Plaxico Burress, and Dustin Keller. I also like Felix Jones, the running back, more than Shonn Greene. I also don’t understand why this line is 4.5. These teams are evenly matched so the line should be 3 to adjust for New York’s home field. Even if the Jets win, I can’t see them doing so by much more than 3. They play a lot of close games, 9 of their 13 wins from last year, including playoffs, were by single digits.
New England Patriots 38 Miami Dolphins 17 Lock Pick
Spread: New England -7
Pick against spread: New England 1 unit (+100)
This is another game where I’m going against the trends. Miami is a big underdog (3.5+) week 1 in a divisional game. That’s a lucrative betting situation. They’re also 7+ point underdogs in a divisional game in general, another lucrative betting situation. However, I’m not betting anything against this New England team until they prove me wrong. This is the best team in the league and Miami has a whole mess of problems. New England blew out Miami in Miami last year (and then for good measure did so week 17 at home even though they sat their starters in the 2nd half). Why can’t they do the same this year?
Denver Broncos 20 Oakland Raiders 13
Spread: Denver -3
Pick against spread: Denver 2 units (-220)
This is a situation where a divisional game has a line of 3 or less. In this situation, the favorite is 15-5 ATS since 2000 in week 1. That puts Denver at an advantage. I also think Denver will be more motivated. They’re a team that doesn’t have a lot of nationally televised games so they’ll be extremely amped up by having a Monday Night game against a divisional rival.
Denver is also a very good home team. Road opponents hate having to deal with that thin air a mile high in Denver. They’re 45-27 at home since 2002 and 33-39 on the road. Even last year when they sucked, they went 3-5 at home, as opposed to 1-7 on the road. Oakland is the worse team in this matchup as well, so I’m giving the home team the advantage here.
Vegas Hilton picks (for anyone playing): St. Louis +4.5 over Philadelphia, Buffalo +6.5 over Kansas City, Indianapolis +9 over Houston, Seattle +5 over San Francisco, Dallas +4 over NY Jets
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