Spreads/Lines on betonline.com
Last week overall: 6-7
Last week ATS: 3-9-1 (-2135/-19 units)
Overall picks: 65-38 (.631)
Upset Picks: 2-1 (+625/+2 units)
ATS Picks: 44-54-5 (-3505/-25 units)
Survivor picks: 6-1 (NE, PIT, BAL, GB, NYG, PHI)
Upset picks: 11-16 (+770/-1 unit)
Recap: I sucked. Again. Trust me, I’m not enjoying this. So I did some research to try to figure out why I’m doing so badly this year. This is what I found. Excluding Carolina (an outlier at 5-2 ATS), 6 teams have .325 or worse winning percentages. These 6 teams are covering at a 25.6% rate. This might not surprise you. Those teams suck. However, last year, there were 6 teams with .325 or worse winning percentages. They covered at a 35.8% rate. This is a significant difference.
If we continue to look at teams with .375 winning percentages or worse, excluding Carolina, there are 9 teams with .375 winning percentages or worse. They are covering at a rate of 30.4%. Last year, there were 11 such teams, excluding Detroit (an outlier at 12-4 ATS). They covered at a rate of 39.8%. It seems like the lockout and/or the new rules cutting the amount of organized team activities have really hurt the bad teams and made them even worse.
This explains at lot as I found that I am betting on teams with a winning percentage of .325 or worse 53.9% of the time and teams with a winning percentage of .375 or worse 49.1% of the time. Seeing as these teams are covering at rates of 25.6% and 35.8% respectively, this totally explains why I’m losing so much money.
I really need to stop betting on teams like Indianapolis, St. Louis, Miami, Arizona, Minnesota, and Jacksonville (all worse than .325), unless I have a really good reason to. The same goes for teams like Philadelphia, Seattle, and Denver (all worse than .375), though to a lesser extent. I hope my commitment to changing that shows through in my picks this week and I hope even more than I make money this week. Let’s go.
Baltimore Ravens 31 Arizona Cardinals 13
Pick against spread: Baltimore Ravens -13 (-105) 3 units (-315)
Baltimore looked awful last week against Jacksonville, losing 12-7 and not managing to get a first down until the 3rd quarter. However, in spite of that, I was excited to bet on Baltimore this week. Last week was Baltimore’s 3rd stink bomb offensive performance of the year. Their offense sucked against Tennessee. Their offense sucked against the Jets, though the defense bailed them out. Their offense sucked against Jacksonville.
They haven’t had two good offensive performances in a row. But they haven’t had two bad ones either. Flacco has thrown for 300+ yards in the other 3 games. John Harbaugh is 5-1 ATS as a head coach after a loss as a favorite. He is very good at getting his team turned around. You could even see it after halftime. The team played much better after Harbaugh yelled at them in that locker room.
Baltimore has also played much better at home. They’re 3-0 at home and they’ve won by double digits in each of their 3 home games beating quality teams like the Jets, the Steelers, and the Texans. John Harbaugh is 7-3 ATS as double digit favorites in his career. I couldn’t see any reason why the Ravens wouldn’t be able to beat the lowly Cardinals by at least 10 in this one, especially given that the Cardinals are traveling 3 time zones to play a 1 PM ET start on the East Coast. Also, the Cardinals are 1-5 and fit the mold of a crappy team and crappy teams, with the exception of Carolina, only cover at about a 30% clip this season. Making Arizona even crappier, Chris Wells is expected to miss this game with injury.
However, this line makes no sense. Did the odds makers watch Monday’s game? I had this line projected at -13 before that game. I was expecting -10 after that game, but we still got -13. There’s no line value here at all. I was hoping to get Baltimore cheap at -10 and take them or 4 or 5 units. Instead, I’m putting 3 units on them at -13.
Carolina Panthers 31 Minnesota Vikings 24
Pick against spread: Carolina -3 (-120) 2 units (-240)
I knew Donovan McNabb was bad, but I didn’t think he was this bad. Ever since Christian Ponder has become the starter, this team has played so much better. Ponder hasn’t put up the flashy numbers, but he’s made smart decisions, moved the chains with his feet when necessary, and most importantly, energized his teammates, something McNabb was incapable of doing.
The Vikings covered last week against the Packers as big underdogs at home and now go on the road to Carolina. This line says these two teams are equal, but I don’t see it as so. I think Carolina is noticeably better and this line should have been -4.5 at least. Carolina has been underrated all season ATS, part of how Cam Newton has been able to go 5-1-1 ATS, just like Sam Bradford went 9-3 ATS in his first 12 last year as a rookie before Vegas caught up. Judging by this line, it doesn’t appear that Vegas has caught up.
Yes, what Minnesota did last week was impressive, hanging with Green Bay like that, but Carolina did the same thing this season. Carolina also has a better record and they’re in a nice spot, albeit a very specific one. Teams in their 2nd straight home game before a bye are 39-28 ATS since 2002. They’ll be focused here. I’m putting a small bet on Carolina.
Houston Texans 17 Jacksonville Jaguars 12
Pick against spread: Jacksonville +9.5 (-110) 3 units (-330)
Houston got a huge win last week, beating the Titans as underdogs by 34 points and taking control of the division lead in the process. However, as far as this week goes, the fact that they won last week might not be the good thing. Under Gary Kubiak, the Texans are 12-20 ATS after a win. In fact, in general, double digit favorites after a win as a divisional dog are 4-7 ATS since 2002, 17-23 ATS as 7+ favorites. 9.5 isn’t double digits, but it’s close enough.
Meanwhile, Jacksonville also got a win last week, but it was an ugly one beating Baltimore 12-7. The Jaguars have still only scored over 14 points just once this season, in a 30-20 loss to Cincinnati, but they have the type of defense that allows them to keep themselves in the game. They’re also very good in this situation. Under Jack Del Rio, the Jaguars are 6-2 ATS as divisional dogs of 7+. Jacksonville is also in a divisional revenge games here. Road teams trying to avenge a divisional loss of 14+ are 83-64 ATS since 2002
Teams in general fare well as double digit divisional dogs, going 9-4 ATS since 2010. Dogs of 7+ after winning as dogs of 7+ are 10-5 ATS since 2008. This makes sense. Teams that win as big underdogs deserve more respect, but if they’re dogs of 7+ again, they didn’t get it and they tend to cover. Road dogs of 7+ are also 24-15 ATS going into a bye since 2002. Meanwhile, Houston is in the first of two home games as favorites, a situation teams are 22-37 ATS in since 2010.
Jacksonville is 2-5 so they qualify as a bad team. However, the angles are all in their favor and they just won on Monday Night so I feel alright betting them. This isn’t going to be a huge bet or anything, but Jacksonville has the type of defense that can keep them in games, especially if Houston shoots themselves in the foot a lot, which they could easily do given that they’re coming off a huge win and now have a play a team that is seen as hugely inferior to them. Houston isn’t the most disciplined team under Kubiak.
New York Giants 27 Miami Dolphins 13
Pick against spread: NY Giants -10 (+100) 2 units (-200)
The Miami Dolphins are now at 0-6 after blowing a big early lead and losing to Tim Tebow and the Broncos in overtime. Now they go on the road, which should actually be a good thing for them. They’re 17-10 ATS on the road under Sparano as compared to 7-21 ATS at home. They’re also helped by the fact that the Giants could be flat this week. They have New England next week so it’s unlikely they’ll give 100% effort against the lowly Dolphins. Double digit favorites before being underdogs are just 17-26 ATS since 2008.
The Giants are, however, coming off of a bye, which should help them. Double digit favorites off of a bye are 7-3 ATS since 2008, 16-8 ATS since 2002. However, the NFL changed up their bye week rules this year and it seems to be hurting teams as teams off of a bye are just 4-7 ATS this season, though 2-1 ATS as favorites. Assuming good teams aren’t hurt by byes, non-divisional home favorites after a bye are 45-22 ATS since 2002 in the regular season.
This one was a tough one. Miami would seem to be the right side. They’re on the road, where they play well. They’re desperate for a win and the Giants are going to totally overlook them with the Patriots next on their schedule. However, I’m not betting on Miami. Betting on teams like Miami is why I’m in the red this season. Betting on Miami after my big long thing about not betting on terrible teams would just be stupid, especially since JP “Loss Man” Losman could get the start for Miami after being out of the league last week, with Matt Moore and Sage Rosenfels dealing with injuries. Finally, the Giants are 36-21 ATS in the first 8 weeks of the season since Tom Coughlin took over in 2004.
New Orleans Saints 38 St. Louis Rams 9
Pick against spread: New Orleans -13 (-105) 1 unit (-105)
Sam Bradford is not expected to play this week. As bad as the Rams were with him, they’re even worse without him. They looked absolutely awful against the Cowboys last week and now they get the Saints. The Rams have scored 56 points this season. The Saints scored 62 points last week. Obviously, Vegas took notice to this and made New Orleans 13 point favorites ON THE ROAD. This is the biggest a road favorite has been since Indianapolis was 14 point favorites in St. Louis week 9 of 2009 (Indianapolis covered 42-6).
The Saints have struggled on the road in the past two years. New Orleans is a mere 4-9 ATS on the road in the past 2 seasons. However, there’s no way I’m betting on St. Louis here. St. Louis is absolutely terrible. It wouldn’t surprise me one bit if this game was a repeat of Indianapolis 42-6 win in St. Louis week 9 of 2009. I’m not putting a lot on New Orleans because the angles do go against them (poor road team, revenge game with Tampa Bay next week), but I’m putting 1 unit on them.
Tennessee Titans 23 Indianapolis Colts 13
Pick against spread: Tennessee -9 (+100) 1 unit (+100)
This was a tough one. Tennessee is home favorites before being home favorites (Cincinnati coming to town next week). Teams in that situation are 22-37 ATS since 2010. In fact, Tennessee lost in this situation last week. Teams in their 2nd of 3 games as home favorites are 5-13 ATS since 2010. Meanwhile, Indianapolis is in their 3rd straight road game. Teams in their 2nd or 3rd straight road game are 144-108 ATS since 2008, 19-12 ATS in their 2nd straight as road dogs of 7+.
However, Tennessee could be very motivated to win after getting embarrassed at home last week against Houston. Favorites after losing by 21+ as favorites are 19-12 ATS since 2002. Teams are 16-8 ATS after a loss of 21+ as a divisional favorite. Indianapolis has something to prove this week too after losing by 55 (55!) to New Orleans last week. They’re in 2nd straight game as 7+ point underdogs after losing by 21+, a situation teams are 22-14 ATS in since 2008.
They’re getting desperate for a win and should give 110% here in a divisional game after being embarrassed last week, but if Tennessee gives 110% here after being embarrassed last week, they should cover this line. Besides, Indianapolis is a crappy team and crappy teams are especially terrible this year.
Buffalo Bills 27 Washington Redskins 17
Pick against spread: Buffalo -6 (-110) 2 units (+200)
The trends say Washington is the right side. They’re in their 2nd straight road game, a situation teams are 144-108 ATS in since 2008, 54-36 ATS in their 2nd straight as dogs of 3+. Meanwhile, Buffalo is in their 1st of 2 home games, a situation teams are 49-66 ATS in since 2010, 22-37 ATS in their 1st of 2 as home favorites. Buffalo has the Jets coming to town next week. Will they be favorites? I really don’t know, but either way they’re in a bad situation this week. If they’re underdogs next week, this week they are favorites before being divisional underdogs, a situation teams are 46-67 ATS since 2008. Either way, they’re in a bad situation this week.
However, I’m going against all of that. I’m losing money this year. Going strictly on trends is not the best idea. Buffalo is only 2.5 points better than Washington? Huh? Washington sucks. I don’t think Vegas has caught up with that. They’ve fallen 15 slots in my Power Rankings in 2 weeks. They’re in free fall. They no longer have a solid starting quarterback because Rex Grossman imploded and John Beck is John Beck. They’re missing their best runner Tim Hightower and their best wide receiver Santana Moss with injuries.
Buffalo is a solid team that has been underrated by Vegas all year. +6.5 at Kansas City? +9 at home for New England? +3 at home for Philadelphia? They covered in all 3 of those situations and I made a lot of money in those 3 games. I’m betting on them here because I feel they are once again being underrated against an overrated and imploding Washington team. Also, assuming good teams aren’t hurt by byes, non-divisional home favorites after a bye are 45-22 ATS since 2002 in the regular season.
Denver Broncos 23 Detroit Lions 20 Upset Pick (+145)
Pick against spread: Denver +3 (-105) 3 units (-315)
Road favorites before a bye are 14-7 ATS since 2008, but I don’t think Detroit deserves to be road favorites here. They’ve lost back to back games at home and haven’t played a solid 4 quarter game since week 2. They needed big comebacks to beat Minnesota and Dallas week 3 and week 4 and they didn’t impress me that much week 5 against Chicago before losing week 6 to San Francisco and week 7 to Atlanta. They’re also likely missing Jahvid Best in this game again. They’ve become so one dimensional this season as they can’t run or stop the run. Young and one dimensional teams just feel like bad bets on the road, especially when they’re on a losing streak.
Denver hasn’t had a huge home field advantage in recent years because they’ve been terrible, but I really think they’re a lot better with Tebow under center and Denver was once what Qwest Field is today, a very tough place to play because of the environment it’s in. Qwest has a crazy crowd and terrible weather. The Broncos have the mile high altitude advantage, which especially hurts Detroit as they’re so young. A lot of their players haven’t ever played in Denver. The last time the Lions were in Denver was 2003.
Finally, there’s Tim Tebow. The reason I say the Broncos are better with him under center is because of the 5 games he’s played extensively, he’s kept it close in 4, including a game against San Diego that he came into down 16. The one he didn’t keep it close in was against Oakland in his first career start when he was only allowed to throw the ball 16 times even though his starting running back Lance Ball was averaging less than a yard and a half per carry. That game still would have been close if Denver’s defense didn’t give up 39 points.
I don’t have any of trends to support this, but I like Denver to pull the upset. Tebow is a winner and at home and the Lions are reeling, one dimensional, young, and on the road. That’s a very bad spot for them to be in and I like the Broncos chances to make it 3 straight losses for the Lions heading into a much needed bye next week.
New England Patriots 34 Pittsburgh Steelers 24
Pick against spread: New England -2.5 (-125) 4 units (-500)
Ben Roethlisberger is 14-9 ATS in his career as an underdog, but he’s lost in both situations where he was an underdog this year (Baltimore, Houston) and the odds are against him preventing it from being 3 straight losses as an underdog. Nobody is better than Bill Belichick with 2+ weeks to prepare. The last time the Patriots lost a regular season game straight up after a bye or week 1 was week 1 of 2003, 16 straight. The reason this is important is because this line is very small. Helping the Patriots even more, since 2002, regular season road favorites after a bye are a whopping 35-10 ATS.
The Steelers are also in the first of 2 home games, a situation last are 49-66 ATS in since 2010. Finally, the Steelers play the Ravens next week, a big divisional revenge game. They might actually be a little bit more focused on that game than this one because it’s divisional and because it’s a huge revenge game. The Steelers defense isn’t as good as it’s been in previous years. I don’t think the Patriots have any problems here against a defense they torched last year. The Steelers defense doesn’t match up well with the Patriots’ offense.
San Francisco 49ers 27 Cleveland Browns 13 Survivor Pick (6-1 NE, PIT, BAL, GB, NYG, PHI, NO)
Pick against spread: San Francisco -9.5 (+105) 3 units (+315)
This was a tough one because there weren’t a lot of situational angles. San Francisco is coming off of a bye and 7+ point favorites are 16-9 ATS since 2008, but the bye week rules have changed and teams are struggling off of a bye, albeit they are 2-1 ATS as favorites. Assuming good teams aren’t hurt by byes, non-divisional home favorites after a bye are 45-22 ATS since 2002 in the regular season.
I love the type of football the 49ers play. They’re well coached and disciplined and are able to mask their lack of elite talent. If any team is going to come out better after a bye, it’s this one (and the Patriots). They’ve improved every week and Harbaugh is an awesome coach. Also, while Cleveland isn’t 2-4 or worse, they are 3-3 with no quality wins (Indianapolis, Seattle on the road, Miami). They fit the mold of a crappy team somewhat so I’m not going to bet on them.
Seattle Seahawks 26 Cincinnati Bengals 17 Upset Pick (+130)
Pick against spread: Seattle +3 (-120) 5 units
The 12th man in Seattle is notorious. The Seahawks are awesome at home. They’re 24-12 ATS at home since 2007. In that same time period, the Bengals are a mere 8-18 ATS as favorites, 3-7 ATS on the road as favorites. Speaking of the Bengals being favorites…the Bengals are favorites here? Really?
I was expecting this to be around -3 in favor of Seattle. I’d say these teams are fairly equal, plus Seattle has a huge home field advantage. Instead we’re getting Seattle +3. Cincinnati is 6 points better than Seattle? Really? I don’t think so. They haven’t beaten anyone good yet, with the exception of the Bills flat off of a huge win against New England. The Colts were only -7 in Cincinnati and they almost covered. This line is saying that Seattle is 2 points worse than Indianapolis. Seattle won in New York and hung with Atlanta at home. They’re an underrated bunch.
I’m happy to take Seattle at home against a Cincinnati team that struggles as road favorites and doesn’t deserve to be road favorites. Besides, Cincinnati might not get up for “lowly” Seattle as they head to Tennessee next week. Favorites before being underdogs are 60-73 ATS since 2010. I considered maybe this was a trap line, but a large majority of the money right now is on Cincinnati and Vegas hasn’t shifted its line to try to get more people to bet on Seattle, which they would if this was a true trap line.
This is my pick of the week. I know Seattle fits the mold of a crappy team, but I think they’re a little better than their record and Cincinnati is a little worse. I’d say these teams are equal. One thing that might scare people off here is that road favorites in the regular season after a bye are 35-10 ATS since 2002. However, the Bengals didn’t deserve to be road favorites in the first place. Besides, of those 10 losses, two of them were by Marvin Lewis and the Bengals, as opposed to 0 wins.
Philadelphia Eagles 34 Dallas Cowboys 20
Pick against spread: Philadelphia -3.5 (+100) 3 units
Earlier I mentioned that the two coaches I trusted after a bye even with the weird new rules were Bill Belichick and Jim Harbaugh (since the 49ers have gotten better each week). I lied. I trust Andy Reid too. Andy Reid is 13-4 ATS after a bye since taking over in 1999, 10-3 ATS in the regular season. He’s lost one career game after a bye and that was their Super Bowl in 2005 against New England.
Philadelphia was a mess coming out of Buffalo at 1-4, but they beat then division leading Washington before the bye and looked to have fixed a lot of their problems in a must win game. Now, coming out of a bye against a division rival, I expect them to be extra focused in another game that could be considered must win.
Finally, I feel we’re getting line value with Philadelphia. They were so overrated before their win against Washington, but now I feel Vegas is underrated them a bit, or maybe they’re overrating Dallas. Philadelphia and Dallas are not equal at this point. I feel Philadelphia is the better team and they have home field and Andy Reid’s awesome post-bye record on their side. I feel comfortable taking the favorite here.
Philadelphia may technically be a 2-4 or worse team (worse than .375), but like Seattle and probably Denver assuming on the line, I’m betting them here. Philadelphia is better than their 2-4 record would suggest, as is Denver with Tim Tebow, and as is Seattle with a road win over the Giants and a close home loss to Atlanta. Of the 6 teams with records worse than 2-4, excluding Carolina who is an outlier, I bet on 1 of them (Jacksonville), so I definitely did a better job of not betting on crappy teams and I’m betting on Philadelphia, Seattle, and Denver for good reasons.
San Diego Chargers 24 Kansas City Chiefs 12
Pick against spread: San Diego Chargers -3.5 (-105) 2 units
Last week was typical early season San Diego. They blew a big lead and lost a game that they should have won against the inferior Jets. Now they head to Kansas City in a sandwich game situation. They were underdogs last week and lost and next week they play Green Bay, arguably the best team in the league. Teams in that situation are 42-66 ATS since 2008. So why am I picking San Diego?
For one thing, I feel like Kansas City is overrated. They haven’t beaten anyone and I’m not just talking this year, I mean in the past two years. They won 2 games against teams with .500 or better records last year, in 7 tries. Those two wins were the early season Chargers, who later flattened them and got revenge, and the Jaguars with their 3rd string quarterback. Cassel threw for 68 yards in their week 1 fluke win over San Diego last year. This year, they have 3 wins, Minnesota (1-6), Indianapolis (0-7), and the shit show that was the week 7 Oakland Raiders.
People think, the Chiefs have won 3 straight and they won the division last year. They can beat San Diego, which is what this line reflects, but the truth is, they never deserved to win this division last year. They had a cakewalk schedule and sucked against good teams and they still haven’t beaten anyone of note this season.
Also, San Diego is in their 2nd of two road games. Teams in this situation are 144-108 ATS since 2008. Finally, I think last week was the wakeup call loss for San Diego. It’s always tough to predict when this team will make the switch from underachievers to awesome, but it happens every season and I think it’s going to happen this week. I like San Diego here, especially since Kansas City can be considered a crappy team at 3-3 with no quality wins.
LV Hilton Super Contest Picks (16-19 on the season): Seattle +2.5, New England -3, Jacksonville +9.5, San Francisco -8.5, Baltimore -12.5
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