Running Back

Miami

5-11 212

Draft board overall prospect rank: #59

Draft board overall running back rank: #4

Overall rating: 74 (3^rd round)

40 time: 4.38

Games watched: Ohio State/Miami, Miami/Virginia Tech, Miami/Virginia, Miami/Florida State, Miami/Duke, Miami/South Florida

Positives

·         Incredibly fast

·         Excellent 40 (4.38)

·         Incredibly explosive

·         Deadly in space

·         Elite homerun hitter speed

·         Good patience

·         Shifty and breaks tackles

·         Solid size (5-11 212)

·         Strong 2011 season (227 yards for 1272 yards and 9 touchdowns)

·         Tough – played through injury in 2011

·         Very athletic

·         Still young (turns 21 the day before the draft)

·         Some kickoff return experience

·         Minimal tread on tires (335 carries)

Negatives

·         Not a great between the tackles runner

·         Not a great short yardage runner

·         Doesn’t play as big as his size

·         Runs a little upright

·         Unrefined as a pass catcher and pass blocker (only 17 catches this season)

·         Struggles early in games (often would split carries evenly with the inferior Mike James for a quarter or two)

·         Inexperienced (one year starter and a redshirt sophomore)

·         Still very raw

·         Inconsistent

·         Durability?

·         Struggled down the stretch (under 100 yards in 5 of last 7)

·         Lack of positional value

NFL Comparison: Felix Jones

Lamar Miller is one of the youngest players in this draft class. He won’t turn 21 until April 25^th, the day before the first day of the NFL Draft. He’s also one of the most inexperienced. He only had 335 carries at Miami and was only a starter for one season. The minimal tread on his tires can be seen as a good thing in NFL draft circles, given how short running backs’ shelf lives can be, but there’s a point where a player is too inexperienced. Miller, just a redshirt sophomore, is very raw, but still very raw and inexperienced.

He definitely flashes on tape and he’s deadly in space. He’s incredibly explosive and shifty with great vision and straight line speed (his 4.38 40 was one of the best at The Combine). However, he’s still unrefined as a between the tackles runner and had a couple “clunker” games last season (16/29 against North Carolina, 20/50 against South Florida). He’s also very raw as a pass catcher and pass protector, catching just 17 balls this season and struggling on the rare occasion he’s been asked to block. He needs to become a more powerful runner as well and he doesn’t play as big as his size.

As an NFL prospect, I compare him to Felix Jones. He and Jones have similar size and speed (5-10 207 4.47) and similar games. Jones went in the first round and while Miller may have been given a first round grade by the NFL Draft advisory board, he probably won’t go there. He said he wouldn’t declare unless he was given a first round grade, but he may have changed his mind and declared anyway. Those grades are supposed to be private and no one knows what he was given.

Jones was given a chance to be the lead back in Dallas on several occasions, but never took advantage. He’s going into 2012 as a part of a tandem with DeMarco Murray, which is his best fit. Likewise, Miller will be best as part of a tandem at the next level. He’s explosive, but I have concerns about his power, durability, and blocking. He’ll probably be a 2^nd round pick.

Miller is going to be compared with David Wilson often during the draft process. Both look like 2^nd round picks and both ACC backs have similar games and backgrounds. Both are explosive, open field backs with one year of starting experience and trouble running between the tackles. I have Wilson higher because he was more productive this season, he runs harder, and he’s a better pass catcher/blocker. Miller is bigger though and should be more durable at the next level. He also didn’t have as many fumbles as Wilson did this year and he’s younger and probably has more upside.

Still, I like Wilson barely over Miller. Both are borderline 2^nd/3^rd round prospects in my book, given the low value of the running back position. Miller will come off the board at any point after Richardson, Martin, and Wilson. Richardson and Martin are the 3 down backs, Wilson and Miller the explosive tandem backs, and Chris Polk (who is think is underrated), is the unspectacular back who I think can be a 3 down back at the next level. Interested teams for Miller will include St. Louis, NY Jets, Detroit, Denver, San Diego, Cincinnati, and Cleveland.