Steve Smith had a career revitalizing year in 2011 and he teamed with Cam Newton for 79 catches for 1394 yards and 7 touchdowns. He ranked 5^th in the league in receiving and proved once again he was one of the league’s premier receivers, even at age 32. He was a free agent after the 2012 season and this extension will add 3 more years onto his existing deal.

However, this deal is absolutely ridiculous. It’s worth 18 million guaranteed from 2013-2015 and up to 36 million max. Steve Smith will be 34-36 years old in that stretch. You don’t guarantee a 34-36 year old wide receiver 18 million dollars, especially one as reliant on speed as Smith. Speed is normally the first thing to go on a receiver. Smith could be a shell of his former self in 2 years or less and he wouldn’t even be halfway through his extension by then.

It’s ridiculous that Steve Smith got more in guaranteed money over 3 years than Reggie Wayne got in total money over 3 years, even though Wayne doesn’t turn 34 until November of the first year of his extension and Smith turns 34 in May of the first year of his extension. And Wayne is much less reliant on speed than Smith and much more consistent. Smith is just a year removed from a 45 catch for 554 yards and 2 touchdowns season. I know Jimmy Clausen was throwing him the ball, but Wayne almost doubled those stats with Curtis Painter throwing him the ball this season. On top of that, Wayne hasn’t missed a game since his rookie season. In that same time period, Smith has missed 21.

Another contract comparison for Steve Smith is Santana Moss. Moss is not as big of a name as Smith, but like Smith, he’s very reliant on speed and he had similar career numbers with similar mediocre quarterbacking when he signed a 13.5 million dollar deal over 3 years last offseason. Smith has 699 catches for 10278 yards and 59 touchdowns in 11 seasons. Moss had 593 catches for 8558 yards and 52 touchdowns in 10 seasons and signed the contract for ages 32-34, as opposed to 34-36 for Smith. For comparison’s sake, Wayne has 862 catches for 11708 yards and 73 touchdowns in 11 seasons

And the kicker, Moss could be cut this offseason. Moss’ abilities greatly declined last season and he also battled through injuries. A similar thing could happen to Smith any year now, but he’ll be guaranteed way too much money for the Panthers to be able to cut him loose without suffering a huge cap hit. For a team building for the future (and doing so well up to this point), this was a ridiculously stupid move.

Let’s take a look at the 11 receivers who rank in the top 20 all time in receiving yards who have played in the last 10 years (since 2002) to see where their career started to drop off. Smith currently ranks 32^nd and is 1626 yards outside of the top 20 so it’s reasonable to expect him to be on this list someday, but not too deep into the list.

Jerry Rice (Last 1000 yard season at age 40, 93 catches for 1298 yards and 5 touchdowns in 2 seasons after age 40, last played at age 42)

Terrell Owens (Last 1000 yard season at age 35, 127 catches for 1812 yards and 14 touchdowns in 2 seasons after age 35, last played at age 37)

Isaac Bruce (Last 1000 yard season at age 34, 137 catches for 1832 yards and 11 touchdowns in 3 seasons after age 34, last played at age 37)

Tim Brown (Last 1000 yard season at age 35, 157 catches for 1697 yards and 5 touchdowns in 3 seasons after age 35, last played at age 38)

Randy Moss (Last 1000 yard season at age 32, 28 catches for 393 yards and 5 touchdowns in 1 season after age 32, last played at age 33, trying to make a comeback this season)

Marvin Harrison (Last 1000 yard season at age 34, 80 catches for 883 yards and 6 touchdowns in 2 seasons after age 34, last played at age 36)

Cris Carter (Last 1000 yard season at age 35, 81 catches for 935 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2 seasons after age 35, last played at age 37)

Torry Holt (Last season 1000 yard season at age 31, 115 catches for 1518 yards and 3 touchdowns in 2 seasons after age 31, last played at age 33)

Jimmy Smith (Last 1000 yard season at age 36, last played at age 36)

Hines Ward (Last 1000 yard season at age 33, 105 catches for 1136 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2 seasons after age 33, last played at age 35)

Derrick Mason (Last 1000 yard season at age 35, 80 catches for 972 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2 seasons after age 35, last played at age 37)

Of the 11, 9 had a 1000 yard season at age 33 or older, 8 had a 1000 yard season at age 34 or older 6 had a 1000 yard season at age 35 or older, 2 had a 1000 yard season at age 36 or older, and only Jerry Rice had a 1000 yard season after age 37. The average age of a final 1000 yard season is 34.5.

In 21 total combined seasons after their last 1000 yard season, they combined for 1003 catches (47.8 per season) for 12476 yards (594.1 per season) and 70 touchdowns (3.3 per season).

Of the 11, 9 played at age 34 or older, 8 played at age 36 or older, 6 played at age 37 or older, 2 played at age 38 or older, and only Jerry Rice played after age 38. The average age of a final season is 36.5

The point, even great receivers don’t play well into their mid 30s. Even the average top 20 receiver has his last 1000 yard season at age 34-35, averages 48 catches for 594 yards and 3 touchdowns for 2 more seasons after age 34-35, and is done playing by age 36-37. And as far as top 20 receivers go, Steve Smith is probably below average. It’s reasonable to expect him to have one good season (1000 yards) at age 34, in 2013, the first year of his extension, and then 2 mediocre seasons at age 35 and 36 before being done playing at the end of his contract. That’s not worth 18 million guaranteed at all. 

The Panthers would have been much better off letting Smith play out his contract. They’d have almost definitely been able to resign him for much cheaper next offseason. No one else would be willing to pay him this much and they probably would have been able to sign him on a Wayne-like deal (3 years, 17.5 million, 8.5 million guaranteed), which would have been much more reasonable.

Grade: F