9/3/11: Shawne Merriman looked decent this preseason. He’s hardly “lights out” again, but if he be even half of his old self, that’ll be a big boost to Buffalo’s pass rush, which sacked Chicago 9 times in their preseason opener. Ryan Fitzpatrick looked good too, despite the loss of Lee Evans.

The last time the Buffalo Bills made the playoffs, Bill Clinton was still president (1999). The main reason for that is inconsistent (or consistently bad) quarterback play. Is Ryan Fitzpatrick that quarterback to get them back to the playoffs? I doubt it. Chan Gailey’s offense has always inflated quarterbacks’ stats (Tyler Thigpen anyone?) without getting real results in terms of points and wins. Plus, Fitzpatrick’s 23 passing touchdowns from 2010 are a little misleading. The Bills only had 6 rushing touchdowns all last year so it’s not like they were scoring a lot.

The Bills do have one thing going for them. They are one of 11 teams that has the same head coach, offensive and defensive coordinator, and starting quarterback as last year. That has to give them an advantage going into this season, coming off of a lockout. They will be better than they were last year, when they switched quarterbacks midseason. Hell, they’ll be better than they were last year based solely on the fact that Trent Edwards won’t start any games for them this season. Bills fans can look forward to that, I guess.

Unfortunately, that might be all they have to look forward to. Their offensive line was decent against the pass rush last season, but really struggled to run block. One of two new starters on their offensive line is right guard Kraig Urbik. Urbik, a 2009 3^rd round pick, will get his first chance to start this season over Cord Howard, who was terrible last year, and Geoff Hangartner, who will now backup Eric Wood at center, his natural position. Wood, meanwhile, is a 2009 1^st round pick. Unlike most of Buffalo’s first round picks, he’s still on the roster, but he’s not a great player or anything. He would be best described as decent.

The other new starter on the offensive line is Erik Pears, a career journeyman backup who will somehow start for the Bills this season. He should struggle, which could force 4^th round rookie Chris Hairston into the starting lineup. The line side of their line is fine. Demetrius Bell rebounded from a terrible 2009 with a decent 2010 season at left tackle. Meanwhile, left guard Andy Levitre might be their best offensive lineman, though that isn’t saying much.

Buffalo should be able to run the ball once again, in spite of their line’s terrible run blocking. Fred Jackson remains one of the league’s most underrated backs. He’s 30, but he doesn’t have a ton of career carries (remember he was a late bloomer) so he should have another solid year in him. They also have CJ Spiller, the 9^th overall pick in 2010, as the backup. Rookie Johnny White will be their 3^rd string running back and won’t see much action unless someone suffers an injury ahead of him. Unfortunately, this team has done well on the ground for the best two seasons and where has that gotten them? This is a passing league and they will once again struggle to throw the ball.

Steve Johnson is a legitimate deep threat #1 receiver for Fitzpatrick, though he does occasionally get a case of the dropsies (6 drops in a loss to the Steelers last year, although apparently that was God’s fault, so there’s that). However, after him, their options kind of suck. Lee Evans is gone and Donald Jones is expected to start is his place. While he has some promise, I don’t expect too much from him. Tight end is even bleaker. Scott Chandler, who has one career catch, is penciled in as the starter. Yikes!

 

Defensively, things don’t get much better. Good defenses have to be able to get to the quarterback and this team can’t. They had a mere 27 sacks last year. Marcell Dareus will help a little bit, but remember this is a lockout shortened offseason. He won’t be nearly as effective as he would have been in a normal year. Plus, it’s not like he is some sort of Ndamukong Suh esque pass rusher. His strength is against the run, though he can contribute as a pass rusher. After nose tackle Kyle Williams, 5.5 sacks, no one had more than 3.5 sacks on this team last year, so Dareus sadly could be their 2^nd best pass rusher this year.

The only way this pass rush is anything other than terrible to mediocre next year is if Shawne Merriman finds his “lights out” form. However, it’s not like Merriman was “lights out” two years ago or anything like that. His last good season was 2007. He’s a long shot to even stay healthy, let alone be a solid contributor.

Opposite Merriman at the other rush linebacker slot is Chris Kelsay, who had 3.5 sacks last year. He’s also on the decline of his career at age 31 and it’s not like he’s ever been a great pass rusher (career high 5.5 sacks). Danny Batten has some upside at the position, but overall, it looks pretty bleak. Rounding out the defensive line next to Marcell Dareus and Kyle Williams will be Dwan Edwards. Edwards, a top reserve in Baltimore prior, got paid big bucks last offseason to start in Buffalo. He managed one sack. The Bills hope 2010 3^rd round pick Alex Carrington can take the job from him, but so far he has yet to do so.

Finishing off the front 7 are Nick Barnett and Andra Davis, two marginal players older than 30. Paul Posluszny might not have been a great fit for their 3-4, but they will miss him now that he has signed in Jacksonville. Rookie 3^rd rounder Kelvin Sheppard could start at some point this season, but not because he’s great or anything, but out of necessity. 2^nd year player Arthur Moats is also in the mix as is Reggie Torbor.

The secondary is the strength of the defense. Leodis McKelvin and Terrence McGee are both solid starters. The team drafted Aaron Williams in the 2^nd round to be the nickel back, but then signed incumbent nickel back Drayton Florence to a 3 year deal, a peculiar move. However, they do go 4 deep at the position, not a bad thing. Jairus Byrd at free safety intercepted 9 passes as a rookie in 2009, but managed just one last season. Still, he’s an above average starter. Opposite him, they lost Donte Whitner in free agency, but his backup George Wilson is actually better than he was.

Overall, the Bills continuity in this lockout shortened offseason should be able to help this team win a few more games than they should, but the talent just isn’t there. It hasn’t been there for a long time. The good news for Bills fans, your team might not finish in last place. At least the Bills have their starting quarterback situation figured out, more than you can say about Miami.

Quarterback: C-

Running backs: B

Receiving corps: D

Offensive line: C-

Run defense: C-

Pass rush: C+

Pass coverage: B-

Projection: 7-9 3^rd in AFC East