Alex Smith gets the same deal essentially as Matt Flynn (3 years 26 million with 10 million guaranteed for Flynn and 3 years 24 million with 10 million guaranteed for Smith). Flynn has made 2 career starts. Alex Smith was 2 special teams gaffes away from the Super Bowl. When you look at some of the deals that quarterbacks have gotten in recent years (Kevin Kolb: 6 years 65 million with 12 million guaranteed, Ryan Fitzpatrick: 7 years 62 million with 24 million guaranteed, Matt Cassel: 6 years 63 million with 28 million guaranteed), Smith was an absolute bargain.
Smith’s haters may say that he didn’t have a lot to do with where his team ended up last season, but given where they are, they couldn’t go forward without Smith in 2012. Smith threw 5 interceptions last season. He might not have necessarily made them go, but he didn’t hold them back either. He also showed the ability to take over the game at times, the New Orleans game comes to mind. I’m very excited to see what he can do with new receivers and a full offseason with Jim Harbaugh. There are no guarantees that Colin Kaepernick or Josh Johnson would have been anywhere near as efficient as Smith was last season.
In San Francisco’s system, Smith is a legitimate top 15 quarterback that you can win a Super Bowl with as long as everything is right around him (and in San Francisco it almost is). The 49ers are so close. Sometime in the 3 years of this contract, they could win a Super Bowl. 24 million will seem like an absolute bargain in that case and even if they don’t quite get it, it still will. If he struggles, they don’t owe him a lot of guaranteed money and they have Colin Kaepernick waiting in the wings. Remember, Kaepernick was not drafted in the 1st round. He wasn’t drafted to be the starter. He was drafted as an insurance policy for Smith and they haven’t needed him yet. One last note: Smith made 5 million season when he was a former bust stopgap. This offseason he’s only getting 3 million more after a borderline Pro Bowl season. Bargain.
Update: This deal is bigger than originally reported, 3 years 33 million with 16.5 million guaranteed, though it’s worth noting that a good amount of that 33 million is incentive based (8 million per year base salary). I’m still giving this an A. They did overpay a little in terms of guaranteed money, but 8 million per year isn’t unreasonable for a top 15 quarterback like Smith. As well as the 49ers did last season, they had to keep their quarterback, even if it meant overpaying him. There’s no guarantee Kaepernick or Johnson could do what Smith did.
Update II: Turns out it was only 9 million guaranteed. Even better. If he regresses, they can cut him loose after a season. Deal still worth a max of 33 million with a 24 million base.
Grade: A