RB Chris Johnson DOWN

It’s looking like Johnson’s hold out could go into the season. Once a top 4 back, I don’t see how you can use a 1^st round pick on him. He wants 13 million a year (he’s nuts) and the Titans aren’t going to give that to him anytime soon. Even if he does play, he’ll be hurt by the holdout and lack of playing time like Darrelle Revis was last season. He won’t be nearly as effective as he could be if he didn’t hold out. If you do draft him, make sure it’s in the 2^nd round and that you draft Javon Ringer, the lead back in his absence, as a handcuff.

TE Chris Cooley DOWN

Cooley could miss at least the first week of the season. For a tight end that was a borderline TE1 already given Washington’s quarterback problem, I think this makes him undraftable. Don’t think about drafting Fred Davis either in his absence. Davis won’t play the whole season and drafting two tight ends doesn’t make any sense, especially when both have absolutely terrible quarterbacks.

WR Jeremy Maclin DOWN

Maclin should be getting back to practice soon and he’s not dying, which is obviously a good thing. However, he could still miss the first week of the season. He’s been really sick this offseason and predictably is not in great shape. It could take him a few weeks to be his old self.

WR Riley Cooper UP

Cooper is an interesting handcuff for Maclin owners. The 2^nd year receiver would likely step into the lineup if Maclin misses any starts. At 6-3, he easily be their best goal line threat and the Eagles offense is so explosive that ever starter is fantasy draftable.

WR DeSean Jackson UP

Jackson also would benefit from Maclin being out of the lineup. He still wouldn’t be a goal line threat or anything, but Cooper opposite him is significantly inferior so Vick would be looking his way much more often.

RB Ray Rice UP

Even with the addition of Ricky Williams, Ray Rice could still see most of the goal line looks, at least early in the season. With Chris Johnson holding out, Rice was already my #3 fantasy back, but he gets so many yards receiving and rushing and he has a new fullback in Vonta Leach. If he can get double digit touchdowns, he could finish the season as the #2 fantasy back behind Arian Foster.

RB Jonathan Stewart DOWN

When John Fox was in town, Williams and Stewart split carries fairly evenly. It doesn’t appear that’s how it’ll be under Ron Rivera. Williams got all the 1^st team carries in the Panthers’ first preseason game. Expect more like a 65-35 split this season than a 55-45 split, at least until Williams gets hurt.

RB DeAngelo Williams UP

He has health problems and quarterback problems, but he’ll run behind a great offensive line and should reach 250 carries if he stays healthy as he appears to be the clear lead back. He got all of the carries with the 1^st team in the Panthers’ first preseason game and he got a giant contract in the offseason.

QB Jay Cutler DOWN

Just in case you thought the Bears offensive line couldn’t be worse than last season, they give up 9 sacks to the Bills in a preseason game. I know it’s just the preseason, but it’s still a very disconcerting sign given how bad their offensive line was last year. I’m downgrading all of the Bears offense a little in fantasy.

WR Johnny Knox DOWN

Knox doesn’t just get downgraded because of their struggles on the offensive line. Knox gets downgraded because the Bears reigning leading receiver was recently benched for both Roy Williams and Devin Hester. They figure to use a lot of 3 receiver sets so Knox should still see the field, but not enough to be a consistent fantasy producer.

WR Roy Williams DOWN

Williams will be their #1 receiver next season, but I have to downgrade him a little because of how bad their offensive line is.

WR Devin Hester UP

Hester, for some reason, will be a starter for the Bears this season. I don’t know if I’d draft him, but it’s something to think about.

 

TE Zach Miller DOWN

Tarvaris Jackson is worse than I thought. I’m downgrading both Miller and Rice, who figure to be Jackson’s leading receivers. Miller has been fantasy startable with JaMarcus Russell as his quarterback before, but he at least looked his way. Jackson didn’t target Miller once in his brief time as a starter in their first preseason game. He has a history of doing this, largely underutilizing Visanthe Shiancoe as a Viking in the past.

WR Sidney Rice DOWN

Rice is a talented player, but he’s coming off an injury, learning a new offense, and his quarterback is absolutely terrible. He’s not a consistent fantasy starter this year.

RB Tim Hightower UP

Hightower got all the Redskins first team carries in their first preseason game. Roy Helu is a rookie and Ryan Torain can’t stay healthy. The Redskins have problems on the offensive line and at quarterback, but so did the Cardinals last year and Hightower still averaged 4.8 yards per carry as the lead back last year.

QB Matt Stafford UP

I didn’t have Stafford ranked in my top 15 because there are questions about his healthy and there are still questions about his ability. He’s still never proven himself in the NFL. He could be very good, but there was a point when we though David Carr, and Alex Smith, and JaMarcus Russell could have been very good. However, Stafford did look very good in his first preseason game, for what it’s worth.

WR Calvin Johnson UP

Obviously, the better Stafford is, the better Calvin Johnson is. Johnson has had 2 amazing seasons in the past 3 years with crappy to mediocre quarterbacks. Imagine what he can do if Stafford turns out to be a legitimate franchise quarterback and plays a 16 game season.

RB LeGarrette Blount UP

Blount is not much of a pass catcher, but with Cadillac Williams gone, he’s staying in on 3^rd downs, for lack of a better option. The Bucs have absolutely nothing behind him on the depth chart (a running back with two career carries, a 6^th round rookie, and an undrafted rookie). He won’t catch a lot of passes, but he should exceed 300 carries unless the Buccaneers sign a legitimate backup for him in free agency.

RB Shonn Greene UP

Greene got all the first and second down carries with the first team in their first preseason game. It appears that LT, who was almost cut in the offseason, will be nothing more than a 3^rd down back and that the 3^rd year Greene will finally get his chance to be their lead back.

RB Montario Hardesty DOWN

Hardesty seems to be the logical choice as the back who keeps Peyton Hillis, who wore down late last season, fresh. However, Hardesty still isn’t 100% off of knee surgery which means Brandon Jackson will be seeing a good amount of the backup carries in Cleveland. Until Hardesty is 100%, he and Jackson should cancel each other out. Don’t draft either of them.

RB Jamaal Charles DOWN

Thomas Jones is listed as first on the depth chart. Todd Haley is nuts. Charles still has some value as a 2nd rounder because he’s so talented, but, with a tougher schedule, expect fewer carries and fewer yards per carry for Charles this season. The only way he would have been worth a first round pick is if he was the lead back, which it appears he’s still not. 

WR Mario Manningham UP

Steve Smith and Kevin Boss are gone. That means more targets will go to Manningham and Nicks.

WR Hakeem Nicks UP

Steve Smith and Kevin Boss are gone. That means more targets will go to Manningham and Nicks.

QB Eli Manning DOWN

Eli Manning will feel the loss of Steve Smith and Kevin Boss this season.

WR Marques Colston DOWN

Colston’s surgically repaired knee is not 100%. It’s still not a huge concern, but it’s a little bit more concerning that it was a couple weeks ago.

WR Lance Moore UP

All 3 of New Orleans’ top receivers have injury problems. Colston’s knee is still not 100%. Robert Meachem battled leg injuries all last season and recently hurt his back in a preseason game. Moore missed most of 2009 with injuries, but is as close to 100% as you can be right now. In 2008, when healthy, he caught 79 passes for 928 yards and 10 touchdowns. In 2010, when he also was healthy, he caught 66 passes for 763 yards and 8 touchdowns. Expect production similar to those numbers this year, especially with injury questions surrounding Colston and Meachem.

WR Robert Meachem DOWN

Meachem, who dealt with leg injuries last season, hurt his back in the Saints’ first preseason game. It’s not a huge deal, but it’s a sign that this is just an injury prone player. Besides, Lance Moore has reportedly looked much better than him in camp.