QB Peyton Manning DOWN

Peyton Manning is not expected to be ready for week 1 according to higher ups in the Indianapolis organization. The Colts have signed Kerry Collins as insurance. The last time Peyton Manning missed the preseason was 2008. It took him 7 games to get right. In those 7 games, the Colts went 3-4 and Peyton Manning was 162-265 (61.1%) for 1754 yards (6.6 YPA) 10 touchdowns and 9 interceptions.

Let’s say Manning misses one game, and then in his next 7 has numbers similar or slightly worse than what he had in 7 games in 2008 (remember, this is a more serious injury and he’s 3 years old) and then in the 2^nd half he has vintage Peyton Manning numbers only cut in half (180-270 for 2100 yards, 16 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions), that gives him this fantasy line for the season: 3854 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, 16 interceptions.

That gives him 226 fantasy points. That puts him right around what Eli Manning had in 2010 (221). Eli Manning finished 10^th in quarterback fantasy points. I don’t think that’s a completely unreasonable projection for Peyton this season. I really don’t. He has a great supporting cast on offense so I’m projecting him slightly higher than that, but not much. Stay away from this guy. He’s going to get over drafted in your league.

WR Reggie Wayne DOWN

If Peyton Manning misses a game and struggles (by his standards) for 7 games, that’s obviously bad news for Reggie Wayne’s fantasy value.

 

WR Austin Collie DOWN

If Peyton Manning misses a game and struggles (by his standards) for 7 games, that’s obviously bad news for Austin Collie’s fantasy value.

TE Dallas Clark DOWN

If Peyton Manning misses a game and struggles (by his standards) for 7 games, that’s obviously bad news for Dallas Clark’s fantasy value. I think Clark will be hurt the most. Reggie Wayne still had very good numbers in the first half of 2008, though he is older now. Austin Collie is very, very talented player. Clark, however, had just 31 catches for 396 yards and 2 touchdowns in the first half in 2008 and that was without having Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie stealing targets.

RB Joseph Addai DOWN

The last time Peyton Manning was injured, Joseph Addai scored just 7 times. This injury looks to be even more serious. Addai won’t have as much running room as he’s used to either. Addai could carry the ball more with Manning out or struggling, but he’s not a very talented back. He has fantasy value because he’s the goal line back in what was supposed to be an explosive offense. If it’s not, Addai’s value drops. He’s also still a major injury risk.