The Bears went 11-5 and made the NFC Championship game last year, but I never bet big money on them to win ever. I didn’t trust them. Jay Cutler is an interception prone quarterback and offensive coordinator Mike Martz is a coordinator whose system leads to a lot of turnovers (a lot of yards and touchdowns too, but a lot of turnovers).

It also leads to a lot of sacks, complete with the Mike Martz “oh shit, I think I’ve actually killed my quarterback this time” face. Chicago’s offensive line was just going to be overmatched. I felt this would lead to several ugly losses, implosions you could call them. I just didn’t feel they were consistent enough to win 3 or 4 games in a row to win the Super Bowl.

I was right in that prediction. The Bears only lost 5 regular season games, but all 5 of them were ugly games by the Bears offense. They had a game against the Giants in which they allowed 10 sacks, 9 in the first half, knocking Jay Cutler out. Cutler had a 4 interception game against the Redskins. They lost 36-7 to the Patriots. They surrendered 6 sacks to the Seahawks and then another 6 sacks to the Packers.

They won one playoff game, Jay Cutler’s first playoff game since high school. However, they eventually imploded the next week against division rival and eventual Super Bowl champions the Green Bay Packers. A 21-14 loss might not look terrible, but let’s consider some facts. Jay Cutler was 6-14 for 80 yards before eventually going down with an “is he really hurt? really?” knee injury that will forever be remembered as “kneegate.” The Bears were down 21-0 at the time before 3^rd stringer Caleb Hanie, following an 0 for 4 from Todd Collins, almost led the most improbable comeback in years.

Every year since 2003, at least one team that gets a first round bye misses the playoffs the following season. I already have Pittsburgh doing so, but I also will have Chicago doing so. With any reasonable luck, I think they’re at best an 8-8 or 9-7 team last year. They had a point differential of plus 46 and a lot of luck in their wins.

They beat Detroit week 1 when a Calvin Johnson touchdown that would have won the game for the Bears was ruled an incompletion. According to NFL rules, that call was correct, but the rules are bullshit. They beat the Cowboys week 2, but remember these were the 1-7 Wade Phillips Cowboys, not the Cowboys that went 5-3 in the 2^nd half to finish 6-10. They beat Green Bay week 3 by a mere 3 points despite the fact that Green Bay essentially handed the game to them with 18 penalties.

They beat Carolina week 5, but who didn’t? They beat the then winless Bills week 9 by 3, despite scoring 3 touchdowns and no field goals, the same as the Bills did (the Bears had a 2 point conversion and the Bills missed an extra point and failed on a 2 point conversion). They beat the lowly Vikings week 10 and then beat the Dolphins and their 3^rd string quarterback (and 3^rd string center) week 11.

They beat Philadelphia by 5 week 12, which would have been a lot more impressive had Asante Samuel played. Samuel was arguably the best cornerback in the league last year. He has great ball skills and almost certainly would have picked off Cutler once or twice. They beat Detroit by 4 week 13, the homeless Vikings week 15, and had their most impressive win week 16 when they beat the Jets. They won a playoff game as well, but they did it against the Seahawks who made the playoffs at 7-9 and were 1 15+ point loss away from setting a single season record with 10 15+ point losses. Basically, lady luck was on their side all season.

That won’t be the case this season and, on top of that, they have to play a first place schedule. They play the Packers twice, Atlanta, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Philadelphia, Detroit twice, and San Diego. Their 5 easy games are Seattle, Kansas City, Minnesota twice, and Carolina. They still have major problems on the line and an interception prone quarterback with a mad genius offensive coordinator whose scheme puts the spotlight on this team’s weaknesses.

At left tackle, Frank Omiyale, rated as one of the worst guards in 2009, allowed 14 sacks and committed 11 penalties. He’s been demoted and J’Marcus Webb will move from the right side to the left side. I don’t know how much better that is. Going against easier pass rushers on the right side, Webb allowed 12 sacks and a whopping 48 quarterback pressures last season. He also committed 10 penalties. He was just a 7^th round rookie so he might be better this season, but the Bears should not feel secure with him protecting Cutler’s blindside.

Taking Webb’s place on the right side is rookie first round pick Gabe Carimi. Carimi is a talented run blocker who struggles with pass protection and for that reason is nothing more than a right tackle in this league. Still, he could be the team’s best offensive lineman next season as a mere rookie. That says something about how bad this line is.

Last year’s best offensive lineman, Olin Kreutz, is gone as a free agent. Kreutz had spent 13 seasons with the team and was offended when the Bears refused to pay him the 4.5 million he wanted, offering 4 million instead. He refused to resign in Chicago and he eventually signed for 2 million in New Orleans (oops), but that’s beside the point.

The Bears will miss his talent and veteran leadership on the line and in the locker room as well. His former teammates were very angry and disappointed with the front office when they refused to meet Kreutz’ demands and bring him back. Chemistry problems are never good, especially since I still believe several veterans in this locker room are either not happy with Cutler for sitting out the rest of the NFC Championship game and/or Lovie Smith for pulling Cutler, if that is in fact what happened. Finally, they’ll miss the continuity with Kreutz, a bad thing coming out of a lockout shortened offseason.

To take Kreutz’ place in the middle, the Bears have moved Roberto Garza from right guard. Garza is a mediocre player who doesn’t have a lot of experience at center, not a good thing coming out of this lockout. The Bears also signed Chris Spencer this offseason for 6 million dollars over 2 years. Besides the potential chemistry problems created by the Bears signing Spencer for 6 million while refusing to give Kreutz 4.5 (over a shorter period of time, but still), Spencer is a mediocre and injury prone player. He’ll start at center if there’s a problem with one of the guards and Garza has to move back there.

There’s a very good chance there’s a problem with one of the guards. At right guard, Lance Louis, a backup last season, steps into the starting lineup with Garza moving to center. He’s a tried and failed starter in this league. Meanwhile, at left guard, Chris Williams is only still on the roster and in a starting spot because he was the 14^th overall pick in 2008 and the Bears don’t want to admit defeat. Williams, a left tackle at Vanderbilt, has been tried at every position except center in an attempt by the Bears to get some sort of value out of him, with no success.

Cutler can’t be too thrilled about having to play behind this line. In fact, after they allowed 9 sacks to the lowly Bills in their first preseason game, I would not be surprised if Cutler ruled himself out for the season as a precautionary measure. I’m sorry. I had to. Cutler’s receiving corps, however, are a little better than his offensive line.

The Bears used a trio of Johnny Knox, Devin Hester, and Earl Bennett last season. Obviously they were not too thrilled with Bennett because they signed Roy Williams after Dallas cut him. Williams was a monumental bust in Dallas after they traded a 1^st a 3^rd and a 6^th for him and gave him a large long term deal.

However, Williams was a Pro Bowler in 2006 under Mike Martz when he was a coordinator in Detroit. He was on pace for another Pro Bowl season in 2007, Martz’ only other season in Detroit, before he got hurt so if there’s anywhere Williams is going to revive his career, it’s in Chicago with Martz. Knox, Williams, and Hester are currently all battling for positioning on the depth chart.

Knox is the most talented of the 3, catching 51 passes for 960 yards and 5 touchdowns last year in his 2^nd season. He was the #1 last year, but has recently been demoted to 2^nd string in favor of Roy Williams, who Mike Martz apparently has a boner for. Devin Hester will be the #2 receiver once again, even though Knox is significantly more talented as a receiver than he is. Knox has been involved in trade talks even, but it now appears that he isn’t going anywhere. He’ll still see a lot of the field because the Bears use so many 3 wide receiver sets, but he deserves to be a starter.

While they added to their receiving corps with Roy Williams, they subtracted by trading talented tight end Greg Olsen to Carolina for a 3^rd round pick. They won’t miss him too much, however. Mike Martz has no clue what to do with a tight end so tight ends are fairly useless to the Bears. Matt Speath, primarily a blocker, is penciled in as the starter, but he won’t see the ball much.

Matt Forte is the lead back and no one has benefited more from Mike Martz’ presence than Forte. Martz has turned him into a Marshall Faulk lite type player. He rushed for 1069 yards on 237 carries and also caught 51 passes for 547 yards. Backing him up, the Bears have nothing but two washed up veteran running backs. Chester Taylor rushed for a mere 2.4 yards per carry last season, the equivalent of taking the hand off and falling over. To “upgrade” their #2 back position, the Bears brought in another former Cowboy, Marion Barber, who averaged 3.3 yards per carry last season. Neither have much, if anything left in the tank, but could vulture goal line carries from Forte.

 

When the Bears made the Super Bowl in 2006, it was on the strength of their defense. This is obvious, as their quarterback was Rex Grossman (still confused as to how this happened). The key defensive players for the Bears in 2006 were Tommie Harris, Brian Urlacher, and Lance Briggs. Briggs and Urlacher are both still very solid players, but they aren’t what they used to be. Both are over thirty. Meanwhile, Tommie Harris has struggled with injuries and was cut this past offseason.

However, the Bears have added Julius Peppers into the mix. He was their best defensive player hands down last season. Peppers may have only had 8 sacks, but he was an absolute beast against the run. He also held his own in pass coverage, leading all defensive ends in the league in batted passes. He also picked off 2 passes and forced 3 fumbles. He did this all while being constantly double teamed.

The beneficiary of Peppers constantly being doubled was Isreal Idonije. The 30-year-old was a first time starter in 2010, yet recorded 8 sacks thanks to Peppers’ drawing all the attention on the right side. It’s conceivable that Idonije struggles this season. If so, Corey Wootton, a 2010 4^th round pick, could step in, as could Vernon Gholston.

Wootton was decent as a rookie and will forever be remembered as the pass rusher who ended Brett Favre’s career (or so we think). Gholston, meanwhile, was a monumental bust with the New York Jets as the 6^th overall pick in 2008 out of Ohio State. He had no sacks in 3 seasons, but gets a fresh start in Chicago in a 4-3 defense like the one he played in at Ohio State. He’ll also get to work with defensive line coach, Rod Marinelli, an expert at coaching up defensive linemen.

Gholston is not the only reclamation project in town. Amobi Okoye was the 11^th overall pick in 2007, but struggled in 4 seasons in Houston. He was eventually cut this offseason because he struggled to adapt to Houston’s new 3-4 defense. He’ll continue to play in a 4-3 in Chicago. He too will get to work with Marinelli and he’s currently listed as the starter next to Anthony Adams, a declining, but still talented player.

Okoye could struggle. He just turned 24 (remember, he was the youngest player ever drafted in the first round when he was drafted), but had a mere 11 sacks in 4 seasons with the Texans. If he struggles, rookie 2^nd round pick Stephen Paea would be inserted into the starting lineup. Paea/Okoye will replace Tommie Harris in the lineup nicely. Paea fell to the middle of the 2^nd round this past April and the Bears, who considered him at 29 in the first round, moved up to get him so they obviously like him.

At linebacker, Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs are not quite the same players they used to be, but they are still very, very good players, especially Urlacher, who was one of the best players at his positions at age 33 with 125 tackles. The 3^rd linebacker spot is much more questionable. Nick Roach, a career backup, will start on the strong side with incumbent starter Pisa Tinoisamoa still a free agent after major knee surgery. He wouldn’t be ready for the start of the season even if he was resigned, and besides, he was a pretty marginal player last year anywhere. JT Thomas seems like the strong side linebacker of the future, but he was just a 6^th round pick in April and he’ll be hurt by the lockout.

At cornerback, the Bears try to go three deep with Charles Tillman, Tim Jennings, and Dre Moore, in an attempt to match up with the Packers depth at receiver, but they fail in that regard. None of those 3 were particularly great in 2010, though none of the three were particularly bad either. I’m surprised the Bears didn’t address this position through the draft.

At strong safety, Danieal Manning is gone as a free agent and 2010 3^rd round pick Major Wright, who flashed as a rookie, will become the full time starter. Meanwhile, the marginal Chris Harris will start at free safety. They have rookie 3^rd round pick Chris Conte in the mix. He can play either safety position and might even see time at cornerback, but the Bears have said they view him as a safety long term and also that they don’t plan on playing him very much this season.

The NFL is a league of parity. Teams come up. Teams go down. I think this is a team that goes down this year. They had a lot of lucky wins last year and they frequently combusted. They have a very tough schedule this year and a several potential locker room chemistry problems. Every season since 2003, there has been at least one team that had a first round bye in the previous season that missed the playoffs in the next season. I think the Bears do so this season.

Quarterback: B-

Running backs: B

Receiving corps: C+

Offensive line: D

Run defense: B+

Pass rush: B-

Pass coverage: B-

Coaching: C+

Projection: 7-9 3^rd in NFC North