Quarterback 

Missouri

6-4 234

Draft board overall prospect rank: #48

Draft board overall quarterback rank: #3

Overall rating: 78 (mid 2nd)

40 time: 4.61

3/17/11: Reports leading up to his Pro Day were that the NFL as a whole was not sold on Gabbert. That’s probably going to change now. Gabbert looked great in his Pro Day, completing 47 of 50 with 2 drops. He probably won’t slip past the 49ers at #7 and could easily go #1 overall.  

The Broncos, the Bengals, the 49ers, the Titans, and the Vikings all sent their head coaches to Missouri’s Pro Days (note the absences of Ken Whisenhunt, Cardinals coach). Chan Gailey wasn’t there either, but they dined with Gabbert the night before. Ron Rivera didn’t attend, but the Panthers have a private workout set up with him Saturday. They have said they are not sold on him, but that was before his Pro Day so things could have changed.

I had a 3^rd round grade on Gabbert before today. I’m moving it up to a 2^nd round grade. He still didn’t produce in a system that is catered towards quarterbacks producing. He’s got upside, but I still have him ranked behind Cam Newton and Ryan Mallett.

3/7/11: I have been covering the NFL Draft for a few years and I’ve never encountered a more head scratching top quarterback prospect than Blaine Gabbert. The part that’s head scratching is not, how should I grade him, but why is he generally accepted as a first round or even a top 10 pick. It’s baffling. This guy was in no one’s first round mock for months and months and months and then Andrew Luck went back to school and all of a sudden Todd McShay put him at #5 to the Cardinals and everyone followed suit. I don’t get what everyone loves about this kid.

I watched Missouri’s bowl game against Iowa and if you had told me one of those two quarterbacks would become a first round prospect in a month or so, I would have guessed Ricky Stanzi. Ricky Stanzi was the better quarterback in that game. He looked like the better pro prospect and statistically that was one of Stanzi’s worst games this season. Stanzi is a mid round prospect at best and Gabbert is being talked about as a possibility for the #1 pick.

It’s almost like everyone is saying, this quarterback class sucks now than Andrew Luck is going to back to school. That kid from Missouri has a big arm, cool hair, and Todd McShay likes him, let’s put him atop our board. I desperately hope NFL scouts are smarter than that and actually, from what I’m hearing from various sources around the league, NFL scouts aren’t as sold on Gabbert as McShay and Kiper and all those guys are.

It’s okay to have a big board with quarterbacks with first round grades. My philosophy is always, if you need a quarterback and there’s one available in the first round that you have given a first round grade, take him. However, some years there just are no quarterbacks with first round ability. I’ve given Cam Newton and Ryan Mallett borderline first round grades, but that’s it. The worst thing you can do is to draft a quarterback in the first round when you’re not sold on him as a first rounder and a franchise quarterback. There’s always next year. There’s always 2^nd-3^rd round projects.

This year this is especially true as the NFL lockout could cut into training camp time. This year’s quarterbFack class is full of raw quarterbacks, whether it be Newton, or Gabbert, or Mallett, or Jake Locker or Colin Kaepernick or Pat Devlin. Do you really want to throw any of these guys out there year 1 with limited offseason practice with the team?

Teams are better off going with a veteran, a mid round project, and waiting for next year when it looks like there will be at least two first round caliber quarterbacks, Andrew Luck, widely considered the best quarterback prospect since Peyton Manning, and Matt Barkley, the anointed one since high school who hasn’t disappointed in two years at USC. Then, of course, there’s always guys who do what Mark Sanchez and Josh Freeman did, coming out of seemingly nowhere to become first round caliber quarterbacks.

One final thing before I start talking about Gabbert exclusively. Just because Todd McShay anoints a quarterback a first rounder, doesn’t mean he’s right. McShay loved JaMarcus Russell. He had a first round grade on Brian Brohm and said, when the Packers picked him in the 2^nd, that he would become their starting quarterback over Aaron Rodgers in two years. He hated Aaron Rodgers coming out of Cal, citing his “lack of creativity.” He hated Matt Ryan and didn’t care for Joe Flacco. This care is hardly the best source for quarterback knowledge. Go and watch the tape for yourselves.

I mentioned Gabbert as raw earlier and this is what I mean. The physical stuff is all there. He ran in the 4.6s and is a very mobile quarterback. He has an above average arm. At 6-4 he has NFL size. However, he’s not very accurate, his footwork is atrocious, and he is coming out of a spread offense. Before Sam Bradford, quarterbacks coming from shotgun spreads didn’t work out in the NFL at all. Bradford is the exception. Not the rule. Colt McCoy is coming along, but considering he only played 8 games last year and threw 3 more picks than touchdowns, it’s hard to put him in Bradford’s tier.

The problem with shotgun spread offenses, and Missouri’s offense especially, is there are no dropbacks, few reads, and few long throws. Most of it is take the snap, first read, short throw. As a result of this, Gabbert’s footwork is not where it needs to be at this point and neither is his ability to read defenses. I’m not saying he can’t learn, but he’s at a disadvantage from the start. It also inflates stats because it’s so pass heavy.

In most years, all of those things I read would be major red flags. They were with Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow, Colt McCoy last year. However, everyone seems to be ignoring that with Gabbert because Bradford panned out and because Gabbert is more physically impressive than most spread quarterbacks. His physical stature is also a big part of the reason why people seem to be ignoring his stats. He didn’t produce much in college. Stats aren’t everything, but if you can’t produce in college in an offense that caters to your stats, how can you be expected to produce in the NFL, at least right away. Let’s look at his 2010.

Blaine Gabbert 2010: 301-475 (63.4%), 3186 yards (6.7 YPA), 16 touchdowns, 9 interceptions

That’s across the board worse than the seasons Bradford and McCoy and Tebow had. He was better in 2009.

Blaine Gabbert 2009: 262-445 (58.9%), 3593 yards (8.1 YPA), 24 touchdowns, 9 interceptions

Two things there. One, why did he regress? That’s a bad sign. Two, that’s still worse than Bradford or McCoy or Tebow or even former Missouri quarterback Chase Daniel. It’s worse than former first round picks out of shotgun spread offenses, Vince Young and Alex Smith, both of whom have had less than stellar NFL careers.

The big comeback to these facts is that Gabbert had a stronger arm than those guys and is faster than most of those guys. He may have a strong arm, but he’s wildly inaccurate with it and his delivery, especially on longer throws, is really wild. He may be fast, but he looks to run too soon and doesn’t keep his eyes downfield, as any good quarterback should.

Because of his athleticism, I compare him more to guys like Alex Smith and Vince Young, former top picks whose athleticism outweighed their lack of experience in a Pro Style offense in most people’s eyes and that’s why they both went top 3. He’s not as fast as Vince Young or as productive and accurate as Alex Smith, but he has a stronger arm than both of them.

I think the Alex Smith comparison is the best. Smith was faster than average coming out of Utah and though his arm wasn’t quite as strong as Gabbert, he had the same downfield inaccuracy problems. He also had Gabbert’s NFL frame, at 6-4 220. Smith was more of a winner and more productive though. And as was the case with Alex Smith, any team that takes Gabbert in the top 10, will be picking there a lot in the next 5 years.

NFL Comparison: Alex Smith