3^rd quarter

13:25: Moore hit as he throws, wobbly throw, picked, shouldn’t have been thrown.

13:17: Boise State gets pressure, Osweiler steps up from Iloka’s pressure on a blitz, sacked by Billy Winn.

12:32: Robinson with another great catch over the middle.

12:08: Iloka lines up at cornerback, 4^th and 4, thrown on one on one, incomplete, off balance throw against blitz, still good coverage by Iloka.

10:29: Moore fumbles on an under center snap. Problem for him. Doesn’t take a lot of under center snaps. NFL scouts don’t want to see this. Arizona State recovers.

9:22: Robinson with a great run block downfield on a long Arizona State outside run.

7:20: Crawford and Baker continue on a huge tackle for loss on the goal line.

5:42: Robinson with back to back over the middle catches.

5:09: Shea McClellin with a sack.

3:45: Potter pass protects for a long time well against a bull rush, eventually beaten but after a long time and nothing bad happens because Moore released well before pressure got to him.

3:21: Potter does a good job of recovering after being beaten off snap, throws guy off play in pass protection.

3:00: Potter takes a guy down on a cut block.

2:26: Potter does a good job of zone blocking the defensive linemen, helps push defensive line away from direction Moore rolled out on pass attack bootleg.

0:38: Potter athletic in 2^nd level.

4^th quarter

13:05: 21 yard touchdown by Robinson.

11:11: Iloka thrown on against sideline, complete.

10:46: Iloka misses a tackle on a long gain by Robinson.

8:45: Another botched snap for Arizona State, this time on 4^th and long in field goal range.

7:24: Potter misses this cut block.

6:45: Doug Martin still running hard, 16 yards up the middle with great burst, could have been more if not for a shoestring tackle.

6:09: Boise not running behind Potter much.

5:21: Martin designed run behind Potter, nothing there at all, nice job by Martin to cutback for hardnosed 3 yard gain.

2:24: Martin with a rushing touchdown. Up 56-17 now, run heavy drive. Potter became pretty useless on this drive. Moore took most of the snaps from under center and didn’t fumble, but didn’t drop back and throw much at all either.

0:00: This was an absolute blowout of a game in favor of Boise State. Boise led 28-7 at halftime and won 56-24, only allowing the majority of their points in garbage time, proving that they deserved consideration for a BCS game over the likes of Michigan and Virginia Tech. The win was Kellen Moore’s 50^th of his career, one of those records that we may see stand forever. Moore went 50-3 in his career, losing 3 games by a combined 5 points and could have been 52-1 easily if his team had a better kicker.

Still, there are some questions about Moore’s ability to be a capable NFL quarterback. The first concern is his height. He’s listed at 6-0 and may be even shorter in reality. Very few NFL quarterbacks are that short. The list includes Drew Brees and Michael Vick, but basically stops there and neither of them have the weird release angle that Moore has, which has led to a higher amount of deflections at the line of scrimmage than most college quarterbacks, a number that figures to rise at the next level. It also makes it tough for him to read the defense downfield. He’s been able to get by in college at 6-0 because so much of his game is on short screens and other short routes, where he’s been able to display his phenomenal accuracy and decision making, but at the next level, he will have to throw downfield.

Further hindering his ability to throw downfield is his arm strength. Both Brees and Vick have above average arms despite their height, but Moore does not. His deep balls are typically wobbly and will get picked at the next level as he’ll be asked to throw downfield more and as more defensive backs are real ball hawks. Moore also doesn’t take a lot of under center snaps and a fumble on an under center snap in this game won’t help his stock, though this is far from a major concern for me. He can obviously learn how to take an under center snap. It’s not that hard. The footwork associated with under center snaps should come with time too.

At the end of the day, despite his great college numbers and win-loss record, Moore is still a mid to late round prospect. He doesn’t pass the eye ball test and he doesn’t have the skills necessary to be a great NFL quarterback. It’s unfortunately because he has such great accuracy, decision making, and football savvy and he’s a winner so I hate to bet against him, but I’d say more likely than not he’s a career backup at the next level. He will probably go in the mid to late rounds, but a good Senior Bowl and pre-draft season could push his stock into the day 2 range as it did for Andy Dalton last year. It certainly helps Moore than Dalton is doing a good job in the NFL as a rookie. I was wrong about Dalton and I hope I’m wrong about Moore, but I don’t think I am.

Moore isn’t the only prospect on Boise State’s offense, which performed very well. Moore went 26 of 34 for 293 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 2 picks, but running back Doug Martin might have been their most impressive offensive player in this one. Now fully healthy after an injury that ailed him earlier in the season and lowered his numbers, Martin ran for 151 yards and a score on 31 carries. He did this with hardnosed running and excelled both with and without great blocking. He also did that without a gain of longer than 21 yards, which shows that he was a consistent performer who routinely picked up solid yardage. He also caught 3 passes and returned the opening kickoff to the house.

Martin struggled earlier in the season, but finished the year with 4 straight games of 110 yards or more, giving him 7 such games on the season. He rushed for 1299 yards and 16 scores on 263 carries after 1260 yards and 12 scores on 201 carries in 2010. He also caught 28 passes in each of the last two seasons. The 5-9 215 pound back doesn’t have great speed and is a power back more than a speed back and could post a poor 40 time, but he’s a tough hardnosed runner and a bowling ball who is tough to bring down in the open field because has a strong lower body and runs with great pad level. When healthy, he’s a very talented back and could be a steal for an NFL team in the 3^rd to 4^th round range if he can stay healthy at the next level.

Blocking for both Martin and Moore is Boise State left tackle Nate Potter, who could get drafted higher than either of them. The 6-5 300 pound Potter had a great game in pass protection once again as he has all season, which had allowed Moore to frequently have a clean pocket and take only 7 sacks on the season. He was near flawless in pass protection against an admittedly weak Arizona State defensive line in this one, but became relatively useless on their final, run heavy drive. They didn’t run a lot of plays behind him in this game and he struggled to get consistent push as a run blocker. He’s an athletic player with great feet, but he really lacks functional strength at the point of attack which is not just a worry going forward as a run blocker, but it leaves him very susceptible to be bull rushed by a stronger defensive lineman as a pass protector at the next level.

Potter would be best in zone blocking scheme, but is not a complete enough player to get anything higher than a 2^nd round grade from me. The 2^nd round is where he figures to go in April, but we’ve seen teams willing to reach for offensive tackles before and Potter benefits from an offensive tackle class that doesn’t have another clear first round caliber prospect after Kalil, Martin, and Reiff. If he’s the 4^th offensive tackle off the board, he could go in the late first round to the right team.

Boise State dominated this game defensively too and played even better than the 24 points they allowed would suggest. Arizona State returned a kickoff for a touchdown and also scored 10 points in garbage time. Discounting those 17 points, Boise allowed just 7 points in this game and it started upfront. Boise State has a very talented senior defensive line which could send 3 or 4 players to the NFL, including two as fairly high picks.

Those two high picks were defensive end Shea McClellin and defensive tackle Billy Winn. Both had great games as Boise State allowed -11 yards rushing on 21 carries (including sacks). McClellin finished the season with 50 tackles, 12.5 for loss, and 7.5 sacks. He lined up at both defensive end and linebacker for this team and at 6-3 257 figures to go day 2 as a 3-4 rush linebacker in April. Winn can play either the 3-4 or the 4-3. The 6-4 288 pound defensive tackle had 33 tackles, 8 for loss, and 3 sacks on the season and figures to also go day 2.

Two borderline prospects in this game, defensive end Tyrone Crawford and defensive tackle Chase Baker, both had great games as well. Crawford is the more likely of the two to get drafted. The 6-4 275 pound senior end had 44 tackles, 13.5 for loss, and 6.5 sacks opposite McClellin this season, but benefited from McClellin and Winn drawing pressure away from him. He also is not as expected as Winn or McClellin. Baker is going to have a tougher time getting drafted, but he too had a great game here. The 6-1 295 pound defensive tackle had 22 tackles, 2.5 for loss, and 0.5 sacks on the season.

Boise’s back 7 wasn’t nearly as good as Arizona State’s talented junior quarterback Brock Osweiler did complete 30 of 47 for 395 yards, 2 scores, and an interception. The 6-8 Osweiler is the tallest quarterback in Division I and had a fantastic first season as a starter completing 63.2% of his passes for an average of 7.8 YPA and 26 touchdowns to 13 interceptions. He could end up being a high pick in 2013. His height and great arm will remind some of Joe Flacco and make him a hot commodity on draft day, especially if he improves some on his numbers and leads Arizona State to a great season in 2012, which he is capable of doing.

The best draft prospect in Boise’s back 7 is George Iloka, a 6-3 215 pound defensive back who lined up at both safety and cornerback in this one, but figures to be just a safety at the next level. Iloka didn’t show up on the stat sheet much, in fact, he was credited with just one tackle, but he had a great tackle for loss on a short pass in the backfield and looked good in coverage throughout the game. Arizona State wide receiver Gerell Robinson was shredding them all game, the only one really having a great game for Arizona State, but Iloka did a good job in coverage on Robinson one on one on occasion, as well as helping as Robinson went over the middle, which he did often. Robinson caught 13 passes for 241 yards and a score, but most of that was away from Iloka.

On the season, Iloka had 58 tackles, 3 for loss, and a deflection, with no picks, though he does have 5 career interceptions. I would have liked to have seen him make more tackles in this game, but he did still have a solid game regardless and a solid season and career statistically. The 6-3 215 pounder is a good athlete and figures to be a mid round pick as either a free safety or strong safety at the next level.

Now onto Robinson, who had a phenomenal game. I saw Robinson against USC and against Missouri earlier this season, spotlighting him against Missouri, and was not impressed with him in either of those games. However, he’s a great athlete at 6-4 225 with 4.4-4.5 speed and the light really seems to have clicked for him down the stretch as he caught 58 passes for 1034 yards and 4 touchdowns in the last 8 games alone, finishing with 77 catches for 1397 yards and 7 scores on the season. He’s a physical receiver who run blocks extremely well and is not afraid to go over the middle. He can be a solid possession receiver at the next level with some deep ability and good open field ability, but he’s relatively unknown so he could end up being a steal for some team in the mid rounds. I’m interested to see how he looks in the Senior Bowl, should he choose to attend.

The player who could get drafted highest from either of these two teams is a player who had a very minimal impact in this game, Arizona State middle linebacker Vontaze Buflict. The 6-3 250 pound linebacker came into the season as a potential top 10 pick, but he’s fallen out of favor with the Arizona State coaching staff due to attitude problems both on and off the field. He didn’t get the start in this one and barely played, finishing with 1 tackle.

Rather than trying to rebuild his image with a new coaching staff coming in, Burfict has decided to declare early for the NFL Draft, despite a down year, and time will tell if that ends up being the right move. The junior finished his disappointing season with 69 tackles, 7 for loss, 5 sacks, and 3 deflections. He’s got amazing talent so someone could still take him late in the first, but at the same time he could slip into day 2.