The Buccaneers went 10-6 in 2010 and almost made the playoffs. However, after LeGarrette Blount took over as the starting running back week 7, and added a new dimension to their offense, rushing for 5 yards per carry out of the backfield, they didn’t lose by more than a touchdown for the rest of the season, hanging within a touchdown of the Falcons twice, and the Ravens.
From week 7 on, Josh Freeman went 197 for 315 for 2408 yards, 19 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. He got even better late going 78 for 109 for 1009 yards, 9 touchdowns, and no interceptions in his final 4 games. The Buccaneers beat the Saints in a legitimate week 17 game in New Orleans. They did all this despite missing Pro Bowl safety Tanard Jackson from week 3 on, 2010 2nd round pick Brian Price from week 6 on, rookie 3rd overall pick Gerald McCoy from week 15 on, talented rookie safety Cody Grimm from week 13 on, and #1 cornerback Aqib Talib from week 14 on. All of those players are expected to be back this season.
They also drafted well, adding 3 front 7 starters at positions of need in Adrian Clayborn, Da’Quan Bowers, and Mason Foster. It’s for these reasons that many people have this as a sleeper Super Bowl contender. However, I do not have them as a Super Bowl contender or even a playoff team.
That New Orleans game week 17 was their only win against a .500+ team. They went 1-5 against .500+ teams last year. They had a ridiculously easy schedule last year and they won’t have that luxury this season. They play 7 games against playoff teams from last season (Indianapolis, Green Bay, Chicago, New Orleans twice, Atlanta twice). They also play 3 teams that could easily be .500+ teams this season, Dallas, Houston, and Detroit. They’re going to be a Super Bowl contender at some point in the next couple years, but I think they’re about a year away and could easily have a sophomore slump. I think they’re still the 3rd best team in their division. New Orleans and Atlanta are both very, very good football teams.
Their biggest area of question is their secondary. Aqib Talib won’t be cut following a felony arrest in the offseason, but he could be suspended, even before he case goes to trial in March. Tanard Jackson is a very talented safety when he’s in the lineup, but he’s currently serving a calendar year long suspension. He is expected to be reinstated week 3, but there are no guarantees that he will actually be reinstated (it wouldn’t be the first time Roger Goddell has decided not to reinstate someone). There are also no guarantees he stayed in shape during his suspension. He hasn’t been able to work out with his team and a year is a long time.
The other 2 starters in the secondary are cornerback Ronde Barber and safety Cody Grimm. Grimm, a linebacker in college, was extremely impressive as a mere 7th round rookie last year, before getting hurt. Meanwhile, Ronde was decent last year, but he’s 36 years old so a steep decline could be on the way. If he does decline, 2010 3rd round pick Myron Lewis could step into the lineup. At strong safety, until Jackson can return, Sean Jones will be the starter. He’s not very good at all.
At linebacker, the Buccaneers have two decent players in Quincy Black and Geno Hayes. I really like backup linebacker Dekoda Watson. He’s a great fit for their defense and I had a 3rd round grade on him coming out in 2010. He fell to the 7th round, but played well in limited action as a rookie. He could find himself in the starting lineup before the season is over, though considering the Buccaneers just gave Black a ridiculous 5 year 29 million dollar deal, I find it hard to believe that he’d be the one who gets benched.
At the middle, Tyrone McKenzie is currently penciled in as the starter, but I fully expect 3rd round rookie Mason Foster to become the starter sooner rather than later. McKenzie hasn’t played much in 2 years in the league and I really just don’t see him as a starting caliber player. Foster will be hurt by the lockout, but he’s their best option at the position. He has nice upside.
On the defensive line, they are very young. Defensive tackle Gerald McCoy was the 3rd overall pick in 2010 while defensive end Adrian Clayborn was the 20th overall pick in 2011. Left end Da’Quan Bowers is a 2nd round pick rookie, while Brian Price at defensive tackle was a 2nd rounder in 2010. Price, however, is currently not in the lineup in favor of the mediocre Roy Miller. Price reportedly showed up to camp out of shape after surgery last season. He’ll have to earn his starting job back. Overall, even though they are young and hurt by the lockout, they should have more than the 26 sacks they had in 2010.
Offensively, Josh Freeman, LeGarrette Blount, and Mike Williams might be the best young QB/RB/WR trio in the league. Blount should get even more carries this season than he did in 11 starts last season. Gone is Cadillac Williams, their only legitimate backup from last year. Earnest Graham will play clear passing downs, but that’s it. He’s not a very talented player. They have next to nothing on the depth chart behind Blount and Graham. Their #2 back is Kregg Lumpkin, who has 2 career carries. Their #3 back is 6th round rookie Allen Bradford. Their #4 back is Armando Allen, an undrafted rookie.
Freeman won’t just have Mike Williams to throw to. Arrelious Benn, a 2nd round pick in 2010, is still their #2 receiver. He should be better in his 2nd year after a disappointing rookie year. Kellen Winslow is a talented starting tight end when he’s healthy and they drafted Luke Stocker in the 4th round to be a blocker. Winslow is a terrible run blocker. We should see more 2 tight end sets from them this season.
On the offensive line, they return all 5 starters, good for continuity’s sake, but that might not be the best thing overall. Jeremy Trueblood, a mediocre talent, is once again the starting right tackle. He could be beaten out by James Lee, another mediocre talent, who finished last year as the starter after Trueblood was benched. The Buccaneers resigned Davin Joseph, but way overpaid him, giving him Jahri Evans type money. He struggled last year and is coming off major surgery as well.
Left tackle Donald Penn is a decent player, but he allowed 6 sacks and 36 quarterback pressures last season. Young Ted Larsen took over as a left guard last season, but he isn’t great either. Meanwhile, center Jeff Faine is injury prone and coming off major surgery. They only allowed 30 sacks as a team last year, but this is not a great offensive line. Josh Freeman makes it look better than it is. They also aren’t a great running blocking line either.
As I said earlier, this team is a year away. They have a lot of young talent. It seems like every starter is young and talented, but they’re not quite on the level of Atlanta and New Orleans and I don’t think they get a wild card spot in the playoffs this season. Their schedule is extremely tough, they don’t have a lot of experience playing with a bull’s-eye on their back, and they didn’t do that well against good teams last season.
Quarterback: B+
Running backs: B+
Receiving corps: B-
Offensive line: C+
Run defense: C+
Pass rush: B-
Pass coverage: C+
Coaching: B+
Projection: 9-7 3rd in NFC South
Football Fan Spot 