Quarterback

Auburn

6-5 244

Draft board overall prospect rank: #21

Draft board overall quarterback rank: #1

Overall rating: 84 (late 1st)

40 time: 4.58

3/27/11: I hate this year’s quarterback class. I don’t have a single straight first round grade on a quarterback. Cam Newton is, by default, my top quarterback. He’s certainly a very polarizing quarterback. I’ve heard “Cam Newton is going to be the best quarterback in the NFL” as many times as I’ve heard “Cam Newton is the Vince Young and/or JaMarcus Russell.”

I don’t think assuming he’ll bust because he had some minor character concerns in college and because he’s athletic, black, and raw is smart. However, neither is assuming he’ll dominate the NFL the way he did at Auburn. He dominated Auburn because he was the fastest player on the field at all times, because he had a strong arm, and because Auburn’s one read and go offense catered to his strengths and didn’t expose his weaknesses.

He won’t be the fastest player on the field at all times in the NFL, the way Michael Vick is. He’s a notch slower than Vick so while he’ll really, really fast for a quarterback, he’s not going to be able to rely on that nearly as much as he did in college. Having a strong arm alone isn’t going to cut in the NFL, as we’ve seen so many times, and no team in their right mind would run the offense Auburn ran last year in the NFL, because it wouldn’t work. NFL defensive players are too fast, too athletic, too big and too smart, not to mention how smart most of the minds behind these defenses are.

Newton didn’t run a traditional spread in college. It’s not so much the fact that he’s never taken snaps under center, it’s the simplicity of the offense. Auburn’s offense was essentially, make your first read, if your first option isn’t open, use your natural athleticism to improvise. It was one read and run and then from the run, he’d decide what to do, whether to be pitch it, throw it on the run, or, more often than not, to run it himself.

Newton’s footwork looked very advanced for this stage of his development at his Pro Day. He had a few problems in terms of his footwork and his eventually accuracy on his throws, but for the most part, he impressed me at his Pro Day with his ability to take a snap, drop back, and deliver an accurate, easily catchable ball for the receiver.

I don’t put too much stock into his Combine performance. All he proved at his Combine is that he isn’t very good at developing chemistry with receivers he’s never met before. Some guys can, but it doesn’t really matter. He’s never going to be in a situation like that in the NFL at all. If he had problems at his Pro Day following his Combine, I would have been worried, but he didn’t.

His “character concerns” are blown a bit out of proportion. He got arrested for stealing a laptop at Florida and was eventually kicked out for academic reasons. Then there was the whole “dadgate” scandal where his dad, allegedly without Newton knowing, tried to sell Newton off to the highest bidder when it came time for him to choose a new school. I think to say he is definitely going to bust in the NFL for those reasons is absurd.

Newton has great intangibles and leadership qualities. He doesn’t appear to be the sharpest tool in the shed off the field, but he wins and his teammates can’t say enough about him. First he won a championship in his community college and then he came to Auburn and won one in his only season there. Auburn was not even supposed to come close to competing for a National Championship this year. They weren’t exactly stacked with offensive talent, but he still led them to an undefeated record and a National Championship. Winning in community college isn’t that impressive, but at the same time, it doesn’t hurt and it’s a nice little resume padder for Newton.

Lack of experience is another issue with Newton. Newton has only started 14 games in his college career, 2 less than Mark Sanchez, who currently holds the record for least NCAA starts for a quarterback drafted in the first round. 3^rd place on that list, Alex Smith with 22.

It’s clear, given his lack of experience, and the type of offense he came out of, that this guy is a project. This draft is full of projects and if I was drafting early in the first round, I’d feel fine with passing on one project in Newton for a different project in the 2^nd round, a guy like Jake Locker, Ryan Mallett, or Colin Kaepernick.

Normally, I say take a quarterback in the first if you need one, because 2^nd round quarterbacks rarely pan out, but that’s only the case when said quarterback has a first round grade. Newton has a late first round grade in my book and I don’t think taking him, or any quarterback this year, in the top 10 is a smart idea. It really does suck to need a quarterback this year.

Newton would be best off somewhere where he wouldn’t be forced into too much action in 2011. He’s already raw and inexperienced and the amount of time he would have to work out this offseason could be cut short by a lockout.

Unfortunately, of all the teams that need quarterbacks and are looking at quarterbacks, the Bills might be the only ones who have a quarterback on their roster they be comfortable throwing out there in 2011. Add the Dolphins with Chad Henne to that list, but I doubt Newton lasts to 15.

Newton probably won’t even fall out of the top 3. The Bills really seem to like him. He’s a perfect fit for them, as they have Fitzpatrick for 2011 and can afford to ease Newton into action. He fits their scheme very well and has the arm strength necessary to survive in windy Buffalo in the winter. They are desperate for a face of the franchise and a franchise quarterback to carry them to the playoffs for the first time in a really, really long time. He, could, of course, also go #1 to the Panthers.

NFL Comparison: Daunte Culpepper (not a perfect comparison, but I had to put something here, and this is close enough)