When the Buffalo Bills drafted CJ Spiller with the 9^th overall pick in the 2010 Draft, it was one of the most head scratching moves in the draft, aside from the Tyson Alualu selection one pick later. I don’t know why the Jags would take a guy who was widely regarded as a 2^nd round pick, and the very most a late first rounder, at 10. If they were going to make a reach, why not reach for Tim Tebow, who, by the way leads the NFL in jersey sales since he’s been drafted and definetely would have helped the financially scrapped Jaguars, regardless of whether or not Tebow actually became a great quarterback. He’s a Jacksonville native who had thousands of people lining up to buy his autograph for $160 a pop for charity just a few months before the draft.Tebow won’t even be playing for the Broncos that much when the Broncos come to Jacksonville week 1, but that game is almost already sold out. If the country made him the highest selling jersey, and the city of Jacksonville lined up all day to buy his autograph for at least 2 times what a ticket would cost, and the city of Jacksonville has already almost sold out the stadium to watch Tebow play backup quarterback for the road team , you don’t think he could have sold out most, if not all, home games for the Jaguars in 2010, even though the Jags only had one sellout all last year? But, I digress. I think a lot of people out there already understand that what the Jaguars did was a mistake, but I’m here to talk about what the Bills did with Spiller.

If you’re going to use a top ten pick on a running back, in 2010 when running backs are getting less and less important, you better make sure that he can carry the ball 300 times and that you need him to carry the ball 300 times. I have some doubts about Spiller’s ability to carry the ball 300 times, considering he’s 200 pounds and his career high in carries is 216, but my doubts sometimes don’t mean anything. I know the Bills don’t need Spiller to carry the ball 300 times. The Bills rushing offense ranked 9^th in the league in terms of YPC last year. Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch are talented backs. Don’t believe me? Ask the Buffalo Bills, who, according the John Clayton, are planning to give CJ Spiller 12 carries a game. Space that over 16 games, that’s 192 carries, nowhere close to 300. Based on that, I would strongly assume the Bills either don’t think Spiller can carry the load for a team or that they think he doesn’t need to carry the load for a team. Either way, that makes this pick a mistake. You simply don’t use the 9^th overall pick on a guy who won’t or can’t carry the load for you. Sure Spiller will help out in the receiving game and on special teams, but is that worth the 9^th overall pick is he’s not a feature back. I don’t think so.

Some people out there are probably thinking, but CJ Spiller is Chris Johnson. They’ll have to give him the ball more once they realize how good he is. Two things to say to that, one, normally you would hope a team would realize how good a player is before they draft him in the top 10. Two, CJ Spiller is not Chris Johnson. He is CJ Spiller. Saying he’s Chris Johnson is an insult to Chris Johnson. Why do you think I never compare, even the most highly rated players, to MVP caliber players. They have to earn that status. Spiller has to earn that status, and sure he could, but it’s way too premature to start calling him Chris Johnson.

Another thing about Chris Johnson, he averaged 5.6 YPC last year. You think CJ Spiller is going to be able to do that with a shaky quarterback and a below average offensive line. Johnson had a better quarterback and a drastically better offensive line than Spiller has. Trent Edwards behind this line is a tried and failed approach. In fact, Trent Edwards behind a more talented line with Derrick Dockery and Jason Peters on the blindside was a tried and failed approach, though to a lesser degree. I understand they may feel they have something with Brian Brohm. However, why would they not try to at least upgrade the offensive front. They didn’t draft an offensive lineman until the 5^th round, despite the fact that they ranked dead last in attempts per sacks, meaning the number of passing attempts, on average, before a sack, with 9.6. Brian Brohm is probably going to need a lot better protection is he’s going to become the type of quarterback they need. And Spiller is not going to be anywhere near worth the 9^th overall pick if he struggles to run against 8 man boxes, something he will face often unless something good happens at the quarterback position.

Finally, even if Spiller someone manages to become Chris Johnson and has a Chris Johnson type impact against 8 man boxes, despite the fact that he’s never had more than 216 carries in a year and he has to compete with two talented backs for carries and his own team doesn’t have enough faith in him to give him more than 12 carries a game and his offensive line isn’t a good as Chris Johnson’s, I still don’t know if that makes Buffalo a playoff team without something good happening at quarterback.

Chris Johnson didn’t make the playoffs last year and that’s with a more talented quarterback and line than Spiller will have. In fact, the two leading rushers last year, as well as 3 of the top 5, didn’t make the playoffs. Chris Johnson was first, but his team was just 8-8. Steven Jackson was 2^nd and his team was 1-15. Why? Bad quarterbacks behind a bad offensive line (25^th in the league in attempts per sack). Maurice Jones was 4^th but his team went 7-9. Why? Bad, or at average, quarterback play behind a bad offensive line (27^th in the league in attempts per sack).

3 of the top 5 teams in total rushing yards last year didn’t make the playoffs. Tennessee, who we’ve already explained, Carolina, who had many questions at quarterback last year (including is Jake Delhomme colorblind?) as well as a line that was 21^st in attempts per sack, and Miami who had a decent line (15^th) and decent quarterback play, but far from stellar. The only true run heavy team that made the playoffs was the Jets and even they didn’t start taking off as a team until rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez started playing more effciently. Hell, the Colts made the Super Bowl and they were dead last in rushing yards and 30^th in YPC. San Diego made the playoffs at 13-3 even though they were dead last in YPC and 31^st in total rushing yards. Running backs, even if they become feature backs, something both me and seemingly the Bills have doubts that Spiller will become, are not as important as they used to be without an above average quarterback behind an above average line. Running games are merely the compliment to a productive passing game.