9/8/11: Manning expected to be done for the season.
9/6/11: Uh oh. Manning looks set to miss 4 games. Those 4 games, Houston, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, all losable games. It wouldn’t surprise me to see them start 0-4. They’re going to have a tough time making the playoffs.
9/3/11: Peyton Manning could easily miss a game or two or three and even when he comes back, he won’t be the same for a bit. He threw 10 touchdowns to 9 picks in his first 7 games in 2008 after injury and the Colts started 3-4. The early season schedule for the Colts is not so friendly, @ Houston, vs. Cleveland, vs. Pittsburgh, @ Tampa Bay, vs. Kansas City, @ Cincinnati, @ New Orleans, @ Tennessee. They could easily go 4-4 in those first 8 and have to play catch up again in the 2nd half.
Peyton Manning had a down season by his standards. He posted his lowest quarterback rating since 2002 (91.9), had his lowest YPA since his rookie season and threw more picks than any season since 2002. However, that doesn’t mean that at age 35, Peyton Manning is a declining player. A lot of his “struggles” can be blamed on his supporting cast.
Austin Collie and Dallas Clark missed serious time with injury and replacements Blair White and Jacob Tamme weren’t nearly as good. Reggie Wayne started to show some of his age at 32. Pierre Garcon led the league in drops. Joseph Addai missed serious time and no one else could run the ball. On top of that, the offensive line struggled to block. He didn’t get sacked a lot, but that’s because he always is able to release the ball right before the pressure comes. Anyone who watched their games last year would know that Manning didn’t have a lot of time in the pocket.
So basically, Manning had to throw almost every play (679 pass attempts, a new career high by 88 attempts) with no running game, which allowed defenses to focus more on pass rushing than run stopping, and he had a poor line to block for him, and downfield, his receivers were either declining players (Wayne), drop prone (Garcon) or inexperienced (Tamme, White). Given that, a 91.9 passer rating is really, really good.
The good news for Peyton Manning is that his supporting cast should be better this year. Collie and Clark are both back, as is Joseph Addai, though he has a dubious injury history. They brought in Delone Carter through the draft so the running game wouldn’t fall onto the shoulders of Donald Brown should anything happen to Addai. They added offensive lineman in the first 2 rounds of the draft, Anthony Castonzo and Ben Ijalana, who will start at left tackle and left guard respectively. Both will be upgrades in pass protection and as run blockers, which will help their running game.
The bad news for Peyton Manning is that he’s hurt. He won’t miss any games because he’s Peyton Manning and he doesn’t miss games, but he’ll miss most of, if not all of the preseason recovering from neck surgery. This was already a lockout shortened offseason and the last time Manning missed training camp and the preseason, he started out sluggish and the Colts started 3-4. He eventually rebounded, but Houston is a legitimate division contender this year so if they lose to Houston week 1, they might not get the division back.
The Colts’ defensive strategy has always been speed over size, pass coverage over run stuffing. It’s worked pretty well for them, but they are frequently really bad against the run. Last year was no different. They added Drake Nevis in the 3rd round of the draft. He’ll start at defensive tackle for them next to Tommie Harris, an offseason acquisition from Chicago.
Harris is not the player he used to be and he’s dealt with injuries, but if he’s healthy, he could be intriguing for them. He’s still relatively young and not that far removed from being a dominant defensive lineman in a scheme in Chicago very similar to the one the Colts run. Fili Moala, their only semi-okay defensive tackle in 2010, will provide depth.
At end, Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis won’t help out much as run stuffers, but that doesn’t really matter because they might be the best 4-3 pass rushing tandem in the league. They combined for 21 sacks last year and that’s pretty much a yearly thing for them. They also have Jerry Hughes in the mix at defensive end. Hughes, the 31st overall pick in 2010, had a very disappointing rookie year and team president Bill Polian even went as far as to say publicly that he should have drafted Rodger Saffold instead. Not exactly the most confidence inspiring thing. However, anything he can give them is extra as they already have two great pass rushers.
At linebacker, Gary Brackett is the man in the middle. He’s a perfect fit for this scheme and a great defensive leader. However, he’s missed 10 games in the last 3 years and he’s 31. If he gets hurt, strong side linebacker Pat Angerer, a 2nd round pick in 2010, would move inside and Phillip Wheeler would play the strong side with Ernie Sims on the weak side.
Angerer is a promising young player while Wheeler and Sims will fight it out to be the starter on the weak side. I give the edge to Sims. He’s such a natural fit for this scheme, unlike in Philadelphia where he had a down year last year. Remember, this was once one of the best young linebackers in the game in Detroit a few years back.
Longtime Colt Kelvin Hayden is in Chicago now, but I don’t know how much the Colts will miss him. He’s missed 18 games in the last 3 years so they might not even notice he’s gone. With him gone, two players that have gotten a lot of action with Hayden hurt, Jerraud Powers and Jacob Lacey, will start at cornerback full time. Powers was a 3rd rounder in 2009, while Lacey went undrafted that same year, so both are kind of diamonds in the rough discovered thanks to Hayden’s injuries. Neither of them are great, but they’re both solid and they’re both young so there’s definitely upside there.
They also have plenty of depth at cornerback. 2010 3rd round pick Kevin Thomas, who missed all of last year with an injury, will battle with another diamond in the rough, Justin Tyron, a 2008 4th round pick who came out of nowhere to be a solid contributor last year, for the starting nickel back job. They also have 6th round pick Chris Rucker in the mix.
At safety, another injury prone player, Bob Sanders, is gone. Melvin Bullitt stepped up big time in Sanders’ absence over the years and now he gets a chance to be the full time starter. Bullitt is an above average safety, but he too missed 12 games last year. However, he’s never had a history of injuries so this was probably an isolated, freak injury. He’s healthy now and he’s still only 26, plus the Colts just gave him a long term deal, a sign that they believe in his health. Opposite Bullitt is Antoine Bethea, another above average safety.
The Colts aren’t going to be bad or anything. However, the last time Peyton Manning missed preseason time, the Colts struggled out of the gate. With games in Houston, vs. Cleveland (the favorite to become this year’s version of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers), vs. Pittsburgh, and at Tampa Bay (Monday Night game against a feisty young team at home) to start their season, it’s possible they could start 2-2 or even 1-3. If they do that, Houston is good enough to win this division. Houston is a legitimate contender this year. The Colts are still a very good team and will be in the playoffs and contending for another Super Bowl, but I think they lose the division this year by a small margin.
Quarterback: C-
Running backs: D
Receiving corps: A-
Offensive line: C+
Run defense: C
Pass rush: A
Pass coverage: B-
Coaching: B
Projection: 6-10 3rd in AFC South
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