By Jim Keller
Quick, when was the last time the Dallas Cowboys started a season 0-2, and how did they finish?
The answer is 2001 when they lost to Tampa Bay and San Diego and finished 5-11. The Boys also lost their first two in 2000 and finished 5-11, so that seems to indicate the importance of this week’s home opener against the Chicago Bears in Cowboys Stadiums.
Dallas is 34-15-1 all-time in home openers, losing openers this decade to Philadelphia in 2000, Tampa Bay in ’01, Atlanta in ’03, Washington in ’05 and the New York Giants in ’09.
Dallas comes in having thought they won the game with the Washington Redskins last Sunday after Tony Romo threw an apparent 11-yard TD pass to Roy Williams on the game’s final play. However, it was called back because right tackle Alex Barron was called for his fourth holding call (third accepted) of the game and the Redskins prevailed 13-7.
Chicago won in just about opposite fashion last week. The Bears beat the Detroit Lions 19-14, but only after an apparent 25-yard scoring pass from Shaun Hill to Calvin Johnson with 25 seconds remaining was ruled incomplete by the officials and upheld by the replay booth. Johnson appeared to have possession with both feet on the ground, but the ball popped loose when he hit the ground while holding it with one hand.
What will Dallas have to do to get back on track of becoming the first of 36 teams whose cities hosted a Super Bowl to actually make it to the season’s biggest game?
Offense
It appears that Dallas has the same problem, albeit just the preseason and Game 1 as a small sample size, as last season – converting yards into drives.
Dallas was second in total offense last season but 14th in scoring and Romo completed just 44 percent of his tosses inside the 10-yard line. On Sunday at Washington, The Boys racked up 380 total yards – fourth most in the NFL in Week 1 – and managed just seven points.
The main culprit in this one was penalties and the offensive line. Dallas had 12 penalties for 91 yards and Washington declined two other holding penalties. Right tackle Alex Barron was whistled four times and continued his preseason horrendous play. Fortunately for Dallas, starting right tackle Marc Colombo is set to return along with left guard Kyle Kosier, both out with knee injuries.
But having those starters back isn’t a cure-all. The average age of the line is 32 years and they combine for about 1,600 pounds. A study by Football Outsiders determined that lines of this age don’t win Super Bowls let alone improve as they age. So that doesn’t bode well for improving upon an 11-5 mark to advance to the Super Bowl.
Hopefully, with the line intact this week against a good Chicago defense, Romo will have more time and confidence in his line and the game plan will be to challenge Chicago more vertically than horizontally.
Last week it was obvious the game plan called for short and flat passes as nine of Romo’s 31 completions were for two yards or less. Romo used quick 3-step drops and relied on “smoke routes” that didn’t go anywhere, screens and flares. He threw only 2-3 balls more than 20 yards downfield all night, but he did show maturity, trying to force only one ball.
I’ll be looking for Romo to utilize big play weapons Miles Austin (10 catches, 146 yards) and Dez Bryant (8, 56) down the field more and try to get Felix Jones (24-yard reception on first touch) out in space.
Chicago’s defense held Detroit to under 200 yards and just 21 yards on the ground, but it was the Lions and they played without starting QB Matthew Stafford for the second half. Julius Peppers knocked Stafford out of the game with a first-half sack on a play that drew a fine by the league office for going to the head – albeit ever so slightly.
Dallas will have to keep an eye on Peppers, who will probably be moved all over the line to create a good matchup. Former Pro Bowler Tommie Harris is also a pressure guy and will have to be maintained, but linebackers Brian Uhrlacher and Lance Briggs, coming off a combined 17 tackles, one sack, forced fumble and fumble recovery performance against Detroit, will be coming for Romo and will use their quickness against the beef and age of the Dallas front.
Dallas has one of the best run games in the NFL and averaged 4.7 yards last week, but ran it just 22 times with a long run of 12 yards, but only one carry resulted in negative yardage.
Many experts have questioned that run-less strategy and it has called rancor in Cowboys Nation about who is running the show, coach Wade Phillips, offensive coordinator Jason Garrett or head man Jerry Jones.
Dallas shouldn’t return to the ground on a more heavy-dose plan this week because that simply isn’t what the Cowboys do. They are a pass-first, run second team that relies on Romo, its best and most important weapon first and foremost.
Defense
Dallas held Washington to a pair of field goals, McNabb completed under 50 percent of his passes and the Redskins’ ground game was shut down completely for three quarters until making some solid runs and first downs in the fourth to help control the clock.
DeMarcus Ware, who is scheduled to play after straining his neck on a collision with Skins RB Larry Johnson late in the fourth, had one sack and provided solid edge pressure all night.
However, the Cowboys couldn’t put a consistent rush on McNabb without gambling with an extra blitzer and didn’t come close to forcing a turnover or making any big plays.
This week the D will be up against the team that amassed over 400 yards of total offense with QB Jay Cutler throwing for 372 yards and 2 TDs to Matt Forte.
The Bears will have a choice. Cutler was sacked four times last week and 10 times in limited play during the preseason, and Chicago’s run game was stagnant last season, so do they try to attack Dallas downfield and become vulnerable to sacks and Cutler’s questionable decision making – he led the NFL with 26 picks last season – or do they try to establish the run game, control the ball and limit turnovers – they had an interception and 3 fumbles lost last week.
Dallas likes corners Michael Jenkins and Terence Newman, and will probably man-them up on the outside against Devin Hester and Johnny Knox. They will try to stuff the run and pressure Cutler. With Chicago’s suspect line, the Cowboys hope to apply pressure, confuse Cutler and force him into bad decisions.
Special Teams
Despite missing just one FG all preseason, Dallas must be concerned with David Buehler, who missed his first career attempt from 34 yards last week. An excellent kickoff man, Buehler has a reputation for being erratic on FGs.
Dallas punter Matt McBriar, who has one of the strongest legs in the game, missed two opportunities to pin Washington deep when he booted punts into the end zone. The kick coverage team allowed 76 yards on two returns and the Boys’ didn’t have much in punt or kick returns.
Bears FG kicker Robbie Gould is one of the most accurate kickers in the game but is challenged length-wise. Hester is one of the best return men in the game, but his effectiveness has dropped off in recent seasons and he averaged just three yards per punt return last week.
Prediction
It’s the Cowboys home opener, a game Dallas needs for more ways than one – Phillips’ security, don’t want to start 0-2, end talk of offensive and red zone woes – against an opponent that is beatable.
With Colombo and Kosier back and another week for Bryant to get comfortable with the offense, the Boys’ offense should be more efficient but still not where it needs to be. The Bears’ 19 points on over 400 yards wasn’t efficient either, and Dallas’ D is a step or two ahead of Detroit’s, so Cutler will not be as effective, will make some poor decisions and Dallas will prevail 23-13.
Leftovers
14 first downs, 20 minutes of possession in first half last week without scoring a point
Dallas inside Redskins 40 in three of first four series without a point
Perhaps the stupidest two plays since Leon Lett against Dolphins on Thanksgiving and in Super Bowl in Miami. It was the fifth time in series history that the Skins returned a fumble for a TD. Washington won four of those games by less than a TD.
Bryant had no big-play impact in pass or kick game; caught eight passes for 56 yards, a club record for catches in first career game and the most by a rookie making his debut since Denver’s Eddie Royal had nine catches for 146 yards in 2008.
Roy Williams was a no-show as usual; three catches for 21 yards but could have had the game-winner; probably had five balls his way all night
Last week was the fourth time Dallas had amassed 380 yards of ffense in the opener and lost.
Sixth time in franchise history Dallas has been held to seven points or fewer in the opener, and first since 2001 against Tampa Bay (0-6)
Austin is third player in franchise history to record 10+ receptions in opener, joining Tony Dorsett (1984) and Frank Clarke (1962&64), and Austin’s 146 yards receiving is sixth most in an opener
Romo completed 31 passes and lost just one other time in his career, in last year’s home opener to the Giants; Troy Aikman did it twice, Danny White once and Steve Pelleur once.
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