Running Back

Virginia Tech

5-10 206

Draft board overall prospect rank: #57

Draft board overall running back rank: #4

Overall rating: 75 (2nd/3^rd round)

40 time: 4.40

Games watched: Miami/Virginia Tech, VT/North Carolina, Michigan/Virginia Tech

Positives

·         Amazing athleticism (4.40 40, 41 vertical, 11-0 broad jump)

·         Incredibly productive 2011 season (1709 yards and 9 touchdowns on 290 carries)

·         Consistent with 10/14 games going over 100+

·         Tough, powerful runner

·         Deadly in the open field

·         Fast and quick

·         Breaks a lot of tackles

·         Makes guys miss

·         Fights for every last yard

·         Explosive with excellent burst

·         Shifty with great vision

·         Excellent cutting ability

·         Good pad level

·         Solid pass catcher (22 catches)

·         Relatively little tread on his tires (462 carries)

·         Adds value as a kick returner, scored twice in 2010

Negatives

·         Undersized (5-10 206)

·         Playing style at his size can lead to a lot of injuries at the next level

·         Needs to get more North and South – dances too much sometimes

·         7 fumbles last season

·         Only a one year starter

·         A one year wonder who came out of nowhere this season

·         Needs to become a better pass blocker to stay on 3^rd downs in the NFL

·         Wore down as the season progressed (under 100 yards in 3 of last 4 games)

·         Virginia Tech didn’t face a tough schedule in 2011

·         Struggled some against better defenses (Clemson, Michigan)

·         Low positional value

NFL Comparison: Ahmad Bradshaw

David Wilson burst onto the scene this season. Following a strong line of Virginia Tech running backs, Wilson rushed for 1709 yards and 9 touchdowns on 290 carries this season as a junior, his only season as a starter. After being stuck behind Darren Evans and Ryan Williams for two years, Wilson broke out this season and went from being a potential late round pick to a likely 2^nd round pick in this month’s NFL Draft.

Wilson is incredibly tough to tackle with his combination of speed, explosiveness, and toughness. He breaks a ton of tackles on tape and fights for every yard. On the flip side, however, he dances too much in the open field and this often leads to plays that go for a loss when he should have at least gotten the ball back to the line of scrimmage or a gain of a couple. His physical running style at his smaller size (5-10 206) could lead to an injury riddled career in the NFL.

He is very similar to Ahmad Bradshaw. Bradshaw is a smaller back with a similar running style and he’s had a fairly injury riddled career in the NFL, though he is definitely one of the league’s better backs when healthy, including a 1235 yard season in 2010. He and Bradshaw also share another problem, fumbling. In his only season as a starter, Wilson fumbled 7 times, significantly more than any of the other top running back prospects.

Bradshaw fumbled 7 times in 2010, but corrected the problem in the offseason, not fumbling once in 2011. Likewise, Wilson can also learn to correct this problem with coaching. Bradshaw is also a solid pass catcher, who struggles with pass protection. To earn 3^rd down duties early in his career, Wilson will have to become a much better pass protector.

I think Wilson is slightly overrated as a prospect. He only really has one good season and I think he was a bit overrated this year. Yes, he rushed for 1709 yards and 9 scores on 290 carries, but he did it against a weaker schedule (the same one that kept Virginia Tech out of the national title discussion, even when they had 1 loss). He struggled down the stretch and against tougher competition like Clemson and Michigan, both of whom held him under 4 yards per carry and 100 yards total.

I’m also not sure his running style and size will let him be a feature back at the next level like I think Trent Richardson, Doug Martin, and Chris Polk (all of whom are rated higher than him on my board) can be. There’s also the issue of his position, one that is becoming devalued in the NFL. He’ll probably go in the 2^nd round, but I have a high 3^rd round grade on him. He’d be best as part of a one-two punch like Bradshaw with Brandon Jacobs in New York.

Interested teams in the 2^nd round will include St. Louis (to pair with Steven Jackson as he ages), Cleveland (to pair with Montario Hardesty, if healthy), New York Jets (to pair with Shonn Greene, his best fit in my opinion), San Diego (to pair with Ryan Matthews) Cincinnati (to pair with BenJarvus Green Ellis and Bernard Scott), Detroit (with Jahvid Best, Mikel Leshoure, and Kevin Smith all being question marks) and Denver (to pair with Willis McGahee and Knowshon Moreno if healthy). He won’t get past Denver and should go in the top half of the 2^nd round as the 3^rd back off the board behind Richardson and Martin and likely before Lamar Miller.