Updated 8/31/10
This top 15 list also happens to be the same list as my “list of guys who if you have anyone else as your QB1 you’re screwed list” (name pending). No offense to quarterbacks 16-32, but if you’re in a 10 or 12 team league, you don’t want the 16th or 17th best quarterback as your QB1. The players have been broken up into tiers to show which players will have similar production to the player above them and which will not.
Tier 1
1. Aaron Rodgers
Bye week 10
Aaron Rodgers was the most productive fantasy quarterback last year in regular leagues with 327 points. Not, Drew Brees, not Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers. He did this even though he was sacked 51 times. However, after Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher came back after 8 games, Rodgers only took 14 sacks. Clifton and Tauscher are back for this year and they drafted Bryan Bulaga in the first so if one of either Clifton and Tauscher go down again, Rodgers won’t get destroyed again. In his last 8 games, Rodgers was 186 for 281 (66.2%) for 2179 yards, 15 touchdowns, and 2 picks. Spread that over a year, 16 games, and he’s 372 for 562 for 4458 yards, 30 touchdowns, and 4 picks. With all of the offensive weapons he has at his disposal, I think he gets close to those numbers, and that should be more than enough to be the #1 fantasy quarterback again this year. Another thing to like about Rodgers, he also had 316 yards for 5 touchdowns on the ground last year. That’s more fantasy points on the ground than the next three guys on this list had combined.
Tier 2
2. Drew Brees
Bye week 10
While Aaron Rodgers was the top fantasy quarterback in the league last year and shouldn’t give up his throne this year, but Drew Brees is certainly not a bad 2nd option. Brees had 280 fantasy points last year, which doesn’t seem anywhere near close to Rodgers, but remember Brees only had 15 starts last year. He sat out week 17 last week to get himself some rest for the playoffs and if he starts 16 games this year, he certainly could be a 300 fantasy pointer, though that is a pretty large if. And if he’s closer to the 635 attempts he had in 2008 than the 514 attempts he had in 2009, look out, he could give Rodgers a run for his money.
3. Peyton Manning
Bye week 7
I don’t think I even need to say anything here. Manning is Mr. Consistency so you should know what to expect from him. Manning actually was the 4th rated fantasy quarterback last year with 272 points, behind Brett Favre and his 274. However, Favre is getting up there in age so I don’t think he’ll be quite what he was last year, if he even returns, and also, Manning essentially only had 14 starts last year because he was benched midway through both of their week 16 and week 17 losses for rest reasons. Unless the Colts are 14-0 at week 16 again this year, which I find unlikely based solely on how hard that is to do once, let alone twice in a row, Manning will have to play a little more and that should be enough to launch him into 3rd.
4. Tony Romo
Bye week 4
Tony Romo struggled a bit in his first 4 games last year, but that was because his receivers weren’t playing that great. After Miles Austin stepped up week 5, Romo was 271 of 419 for 3493 yards, 22 touchdowns, and 5 picks. Spread that over 16 games, and you have 361 of 559 for 4657 yards, 29 touchdowns and 7 picks. That’s pretty good. Add in rookie receiver Dez Bryant, who is reportedly doing excellent in rookie camp, as much as that means, and I think it’s very possible he has that dominant of a fantasy season. Miles Austin won’t be able to be double covered this year, at least nowhere near as much as he was last year. You can’t back off of Dez Bryant, and they have Jason Witten over the middle. Plus, maybe this is the year Roy Williams finally plays well in Dallas and they have Patrick Crayton was is decent and certainly better than your average #4 receiver, plus solid pass catchers out of the backfield. Romo has amazing weapons around him and the talent to get the most out of them. I don’t think he’s too far out of the top 3 at all and he’d be a very solid pick in the late 20s, meaning mid 3rd round in 12 team leagues and late 3rd in 10 teams league, if you miss out on one of the top guys.
Tier 2.5 (not a huge dropoff, but a fairly decent sized one)
5. Tom Brady
Bye week 5
Tom Brady was actually the 7th rated fantasy quarterback last year, but with 261 points, it’s not like he was that far back. Brady had a ton of injuries last year. Whether it be the torn ACL he was trying to recover from or the broken finger he suffered, or the bruised ribs, he just wasn’t healthy. With an offseason to recover from all of those things, he should be slightly better this year, and that slightly better should be enough to bring him from 7th to the 275 fantasy points he’ll need to be in 5th. Losing Wes Welker will hurt him, but remember he was a very good fantasy quarterback before his team traded for Wes Welker, and he has two talented rookie tight ends coming in, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. The Pats also signed him Torry Holt, a solid #2 option who has averaged 700 yards a year over the past 2 years despite playing with mediocre quarterbacks. Brady also has a motivated Randy Moss, as he is in his contract year, and that’s just something he didn’t have much, if ever, last year. Julian Edelman is also a very solid 2nd year slot receiver. And if Welker is ready for the start of the season, that’s just the icing on top of the cake, and I may consider moving Brady as high as 3.
6. Matt Schaub
Bye week 7
Schaub had more fantasy points than both Romo and Brady last year, but only 2 more than Romo and 8 more than Brady so it’s nothing to get too excited about. With Brady healthier this year and with Romo’s receiving corps even better than they were late last year, I think they surpass Schaub. Also, injuries are still an issue here. Injuries are very tough to predict. However, last season was the only year he’s ever started 16 games. It’s not a stretch to say that he’s more likely to miss 1-4 games this year than the 5 guys above him on this list. That being said, Schaub still threw for 4770 yards 29 touchdowns and 15 picks last year, so he’s nothing to overlook. You definitely should not be concerned if you end up with him as your QB1.
7. Phillip Rivers
Bye week 10
8/12/10: Talks between left tackle Marcus McNeill and the Chargers are far from close. In fact, many reports say they do not even exist. The Chargers are not willing to pay McNeill what he wants and some, such as the San Diego Union-Tribune’s Kevin Acee believe it is a foregone conclusion that McNeill will not report before week 1. Rivers already had Vincent Jackson suspended for 3 weeks and possibly holding out for longer. McNeill is not a Pro Bowl caliber left tackle in my opinion, but he’s in the top 15 in the NFL so this is a huge loss for the Chargers and a huge loss for Philip Rivers, whose blindside all of a sudden looks very, very vulnerable with Brandyn Dombrowski at left tackle rather than McNeill.
Rivers had 258 fantasy points last year, a very solid number, and I think he can improve on that this year. The Chargers averaged 3.3 YPC on the ground last year. It’s not completely crazy to think that rookie Ryan Matthews can average .5-.9 YPC higher than LT (who somehow had 223 carries last year). This will open up the passing game for Rivers even more and because Matthews is a rookie, I don’t think it will really cut down on Rivers’ attempts as much as adding a talented veteran running back would. They want to keep Matthews healthy long term. Given all that, 4400 yards is not a huge stretch for him this season.
8. Brett Favre
Bye week 4
8/24/10: The reason Favre had a career year at age 40 last year, probably had something to do with the fact that he was working with one of his more talented receiving corps. With Rice out and Harvin also nowhere near game ready, those receiving corps don’t look as great.
8/19/10: Favre is coming back so it’s safe to call him my 7th ranked quarterback, which he would have been had there been no threat of retirement. I’m convinced Favre will play until someone doesn’t want him anymore, skipping training camp every time.
8/6/10: Before the retirement that wasn’t, I had Brett Favre as my 7th rated quarterback because I think he will produce the 7th most fantasy points for a quarterback this year and I was sure he’d come back. However, though I still think he will produce the 7th most fantasy points for a quarterback if he plays, there is still a slight chance he doesn’t. I have decided I’d rather have Philip Rivers, Donovan McNabb, Jay Cutler, and Joe Flacco before Favre, just because I like to know that I’m getting a sure thing and those 4 guys really aren’t going to be that much worse than Favre this year. So Favre is back up, just not all the way back up.
Tier 3
9. Jay Cutler
Bye week 8
Whereas McNabb probably won’t be as good as he was last year, Cutler probably won’t be worse than he was last year and for that reason, I had a very tough choice between McNabb and Cutler for my 8th rated quarterback. I went with McNabb simply because he’s more of a proven quarterback. However, Cutler is in his 2nd year in Chicago’s offense, with Chicago’s receivers, so I think because of the familiarity, he’ll be better this year. In fact, he went 42 for 71 for 549 yards, 8 touchdowns, and one pick in his last two games last season, a promising, albeit small, sign of good things to come. The Bears didn’t do a ton to help Cutler’s supporting cast, at least on the offensive side, with the exception of Chester Taylor, but they didn’t address the offensive line and their receiving corps, which were not very good last year. However, adding in the familiarity and the addition of Chester Taylor, I think he can increase his YPA from 6.6 to 6.9 or so. Factor in the fact that, in their new Mike Martz offense, Cutler will probably get about 600 passing attempts. 6.9 YPA at 600 attempts is about 4140 yards. His touchdowns will also increase, but I don’t think his interceptions will fall. Mike Martz’ quarterbacks are notoriously INT prone. I’m saying 30 touchdowns and 25 picks. If he stays healthy, I really don’t think he will have fewer fantasy points than he had last year.
10. Joe Flacco
Bye week 8
Joe Flacco is one of favorite, if not my favorite sleeper for this year. I will publish a list of fantasy sleepers in the coming weeks, but you can bet that Flacco will be on that list. Flacco’s going into his 3rd year, which alone could lead to an improvement. However, the Ravens have also added Anquan Boldin, Ed Dickson, Dennis Pitta, David Reed, and Donte Stallworth to the receiving corps. First of all, this means that the Ravens are going to be passing a lot more next year. They wouldn’t focus this much on the passing game if they weren’t planning on passing more. We should see Flacco’s attempts go up from 499 to 520-540. With the improved passing game and the fact that he’s now going into his 3rd year and more improved this year, it’s not crazy to think his YPA could go up to 7.5. 520 attempts, which is on the low side of the estimation, multiplied by 7.5, is 3900 yards. His touchdowns should also go up, from 21 to 22-25, and I think his picks should stay stable at 11-14.
11. Donovan McNabb
Bye week 9
8/31/10: McNabb’s ankle could keep him out of the first regular season game.
I know he’s my 8th rated quarterback, and he will be similarly rated on most boards, but I wouldn’t draft Donovan McNabb in most cases. There’s a huge difference between my 7th rated quarterback, Rivers, and my 9th rated quarterback. Rivers should be good for 255-265 points. McNabb had 223 points last year and is going to a new scheme, with a less talented supporting cast, and don’t forget he is on the wrong side of 30, so another year isn’t helping him. I would be very surprised if he surpassed that 223 mark this year. Those 40 or so points worse than Rivers that McNabb should be about 20-30 picks. However, after Rivers goes off the board, teams worried because they don’t have a strong quarterback can get trigger happy and reach for either Donovan McNabb, Jay Cutler, Eli Manning, most likely McNabb because of the name and how he is ranked in most rankings. Don’t be that guy, even if he is the 9th best quarterback. Just wait for Cutler or Manning, although they possibly could be over drafted in most leagues too for similar reasons, or better yet my favorite mid round sleeper, Joe Flacco, or even other sleepers I like, Carson Palmer or Jason Campbell.
Tier 4
12. Carson Palmer
Bye week 6
7/27/10: Palmer’s got to be thrilled with the addition of Owens. He’s an upgrade as a deep threat over Bryant and the type of player they needed last year. In the 8 games Chris Henry played last year, Palmer was 160 for 258 for 1832 yards, 14 touchdowns, and 7 picks. Stretch that over 16 games, and Palmer is 320 for 516 for 3664 yards, 28 touchdowns, and 14 picks. Now consider that Owens is an upgrade over Henry and they also added guys like Jermaine Gresham and Bryant and Jordan Shipley to the mix and that Palmer is another year removed from surgery and Palmer’s actually a decent QB1. He’s a huge value pick in the late rounds.
Carson Palmer is actually a very intriguing buy low option this year. Trust me; I know he wasn’t good last year. He was my QB1 for most of last year. I can’t tell you how frustrated I was with him some weeks. He almost cost me my league (key word almost). However, he’s not going to be worse than the 198 point quarterback he was last year. In fact, 210-220 is not unreasonable to expect of him at all. Look at all the weapons Cincinnati has given him this offseason. Antonio Bryant, Matt Jones, Jermaine Gresham, Jordan Shipley, Dezmon Briscoe, all of these guys will help. In the 8 games Chris Henry played last year, Palmer was 160 for 258 for 1832 yards, 14 touchdowns, and 7 picks. Stretch that over 16 games, and Palmer is 320 for 516 for 3664 yards, 28 touchdowns, and 14 picks. We’ve seen what he can do with a good, balanced receiving corps, and now he has one. Add in the fact that he’s now another offseason removed from his elbow injury and he could very well approach those stretched out numbers.
13. Eli Manning
Bye week 8
Despite the Giants 8-8 record, Eli Manning was solid last year, as the 11th rated fantasy quarterback with 220 points. The Giants offense hasn’t changed much and I expect very similar numbers this year from Eli. If anything is different in terms of his numbers, it’s going to be negative because Eli had a career year last year. However, expect 210-220 points from him this year and that should be good enough for 12th on this list. He’s a borderline QB1, depending on the amount of teams in your league.
14. Jason Campbell
Bye week 10
Normally going to Oakland is the equivalent of multiple shoulder injuries for a quarterback, but I like Jason Campbell as a sleeper for next year. Campbell had a decent year last year, with 203 fantasy points, despite playing in a scheme that he didn’t fit at all in Washington. Oakland doesn’t have a good supporting cast on offense, but then again neither did Washington. I actually think Campbell can have a solid year this year in Oakland. He is a former 1st rounder who has never officially busted. He’s actually quietly increased his QB rating every year of his 4 year career and has never had a QB rating as a starter less than 77.6, despite changing coordinators almost every year and never playing in a scheme that maximizes his strong arm, like Oakland’s can.
15. Kevin Kolb
Bye week 8
Kolb is the wild card here. He only has 2 career starts. He could be much higher on this list at the end of the year, he could be much lower on this list at the end of the year. If you want to take a risk on him, be my guest, but make sure you draft a good backup too.
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