The Atlanta Falcons had an excellent regular season. They won 13 games, winning the division over the defending Super Bowl Champion Saints, who happen to be their closest rival. They also beat the Saints once in New Orleans. Matt Ryan took the from good quarterback to great quarterback in the eyes on many, leading the 13-3 Falcons with a 62.5% completion percentage, 6.5 YPA, and 28 touchdowns to 9 picks. However, they still didn’t win a playoff game and they didn’t just fall short in the first round. They got their asses handed to them 48-21 at home against the Packers.

Before I break down that game, let’s go to week 16. The Falcons sit at 12-2, tied with the Patriots for best record in the league, ready to face the New Orleans Saints. A win would give them a sweep over their talented division rivals and clinch them the division. It would also improve Matt Ryan’s home record to 20-1 in his career, an amazing feat.

However, they lost. That revealed two things. One, you could beat the Falcons in Atlanta. It was possible. Two, this team is conservative to a fault. Down 3 with less than 3 minutes to go, the Falcons decided to punt to the Saints, hoping their defense would get them the ball back for a shot to win it. Drew Brees had other ideas. Of course he did. He’s Drew Brees. You have to fight fire with fire. The Falcons didn’t do that. They lost.

The Falcons mantra for winning games. Run the ball (497 attempts, 5^th in the league), convert 3^rd downs (46.7% 3^rd in the league), control the ball (1074 plays run, tops in the league), play good defense (18 points per game allowed, 5^th in the league), don’t turn the ball over (17 turnovers, 3^rd in the league), only attempt makeable 4^th downs (73.3% 4^th down percentage, tops in league), move the chains (353 first downs, 4^th in league). It works great when you’re ahead. Not so well when you’re behind. It leads to a lot of 7 point or fewer wins, (7 of their 13), but also a few double digit loss (Philadelphia 31-17).

That Philadelphia game actually foreshadowed their loss to Green Bay. Philadelphia, like Green Bay, is a down the field, vertical offense that can make you play from behind. Green Bay did that and won 48-21. The Falcons didn’t have an answer down multiple score. They hadn’t completed a pass of longer than 46 yards all year. They didn’t have a deep threat. Matt Ryan didn’t have the cannon arm that Aaron Rodgers had. They didn’t even seem to have the plays in the playbook to get big yards. They lost.