The Falcons finished 13-3 last season and got the NFC #1 seed, but they were exposed late. New Orleans came into town week 16 and won and all of a sudden the mystique behind the Georgia Dome, where Matt Ryan had only lost once in his 3 year career, was gone. 3 weeks later, the Packers came in and dominated 48-21 and the Falcons’ season was over. That’s 2 losses in 3 weeks in a building where Matt Ryan had only lost once in his career. That Georgia Dome mystique is all but gone and it will hurt the Falcons this season.

They were also exposed as too conservative for their own good. This offense was based upon safe throws to possession receivers like Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez, and Michael Jenkins, and short, move the chain runs with Michael Turner and Jason Snelling, two bruising backs who don’t have the ability to break off a big run. In fact, they didn’t have a pass play of longer than 46 yards all season and their longest play of the season was a 55 yard run by Turner.

Their ultra-conservative offense hurt them against the Saints when they trailed late and couldn’t come back and it really hurt them against the Packers. The Packers, like the Eagles earlier that season, had the ability to score points in a hurry. They did and the Falcons didn’t have the ability to catch up. This team was amazing when they could play with a lead, but they didn’t have the ability to come back from large deficits.

The Falcons, however, aren’t stupid. They knew they needed to add more big play guys to their offense. Their biggest offseason splash was Julio Jones, the young receiver out of Alabama they moved up 21 spots to grab at #6. The cost for the 6^th pick was a lot. They gave up their 1^st and their 2^nd rounder, as well as a future 1^st rounder and 2 mid round picks.

They may have overpaid, but if they win the Super Bowl this season, definitely a possibility, no one will care that they overpaid. Jones gives them a huge upgrade over Michael Jenkins, both immediately and for the long term future. He also gives their offensive a second dimension as a deep threat, something Michael Jenkins simply didn’t. He’s also good enough as a blocker to help them when they want to run the ball and be conservative. He comes from a pro style offense and was well coached at Alabama so he won’t be hurt by the lockout as much as most rookie receivers.

Jones was their big draft splash, but Jacquizz Rodgers, a 5^th rounder out of Oregon, will also help them become a more versatile offense. Rodgers is a speedy, pass catching back, the polar opposite of Michael Turner. He will be what Jerious Norwood was supposed to be for them, only without Norwood’s habit of always getting hurt. He’ll be a valuable 3^rd down and change of pace back, while Jason Snelling will spell Turner from time to time on 1^st and 2^nd downs.

Speaking of Turner, he might not have such a great season this year. He’s 29 and led the league in carries last season, the 2^nd time he’s done that in 3 years. The last time he did that, he got hurt the following season and he was two years younger and fresher then. He already was showing signs of slowing down in the 2^nd half last season, when he averaged 3.8 yards per carry, as opposed to 4.5 yards per carry in the 1^st half.

Fortunately for Turner and the rest of these Falcon running backs, hell the rest of this Falcon offense, the Falcons managed to keep their line relatively intact from last season. The Falcons had 3 free agents from their amazing offensive line of 2010. How amazing was their offensive line in 2010? They allowed a mere 23 sacks as a unit and, possibly even more impressive, their starting 5 played every single snap last season with the exception of 56.

However, all 3 of Harvey Dahl, right guard, Justin Blalock, left guard, and Tyson Clabo, right tackle, could have left. That would have been devastating for this team to have to bring in 3 new starters on the line in a lockout shortened offseason. Their line would have been a mess to start the season on account of lack of continuity. Not to mention, those 3 were probably their best 3 offensive linemen.

Though it seemed very likely they could lose at least 2, the Falcons only lost one, Harvey Dahl, the oldest of the bunch. His loss will be felt as the inexperienced Garrett Reynolds steps into the lineup, but it could have been a lot worse. If Reynolds, a 2009 5^th round pick, can play decent, their only weakness on the line would be at left tackle, where Sam Baker allowed 10 sacks in 2010. The 2008 first round pick will have to play better this year if he wants his job to be safe for 2012. Baker only allowed 5 sacks in 2009, his first full season as a starter, so he is far from a lost cause. He’ll just need to play better.

If Garrett Reynolds struggles, the Falcons could try Andrew Jackson, a rookie 7^th round pick, at right guard. Another potential weakness on the line is at center. Todd McClure is not a bad player or anything, but he’s 34 so it’s possible he declines this season. If that happens, the Falcons have Joe Hawley, a 2010 4^th round pick, waiting in the wings as their center of the future.

At wide receiver, Roddy White is an amazing player. Over the past 4 seasons, he’s caught 371 passes for 5126 yards and 34 touchdowns, including a whopping 115 catches for 1389 yards and 10 scores in 2010. He could see those numbers go down a bit this season because he’s no longer Matt Ryan’s only option, but he’s still an amazing player. He and Julio Jones will complement each other for a long, long time and with Matt Ryan throwing to them, this offense has a chance to be very good for a long, long time.

At tight end, Tony Gonzalez is a shell of his former self. He’s 35 and only caught 34 passes in his last 9 games, including the playoffs. He’ll probably retire after the season, which means the Falcons could be on the lookout for another tight end through the draft in April. If they can find a good, young one, imagine how good this offense could be in the future.

In the present, however, they should be very good, but not great. I’m not ready to call this an elite offense. Matt Ryan is a very good, but not elite quarterback. Michael Turner has injury concerns. Julio Jones is just a rookie and the offensive line could still take some time to gel. However, they’ll be less one dimensional and more adaptable than they were last season. I don’t believe Mike Smith simply has no idea how to play from behind, but just that he didn’t have the personnel to do so last season. The additions of Julio Jones and Jacquizz Rodgers seem to signal a much needed evolution in philosophy after a disappointing end to last season.

 

After adding explosiveness to the offense and retaining their offensive line, their biggest offseason need was fixing the pass rush. They managed just 31 sacks last season and 13 of them came from John Abraham, who, at age 33, is not reliable as a double digit pass rusher for much longer. Meanwhile, on the left side, starter Kroy Biermann did some nice things against the run and in pass coverage, but he couldn’t get to the quarterback, managing just 3 sacks last season.

 The Falcons fixed this need by signing Ray Edwards for very cheap. Edwards received 30 million dollars total over 5 years, 11 million guaranteed, while Carolina gave Charles Johnson 30 million guaranteed over 6 years, worth 72 million total. The Falcons got a bargain.

Many are wondering how Edwards, who has 16.5 sacks in the last 2 seasons, 20.5 if you count his strong run in the 2009 playoffs, will do without Pat Williams, Kevin Williams, and Jared Allen accompanying the same line as him. This shouldn’t be a huge issue because defensive tackle Jonathan Babineaux and John Abraham, two talented defensive linemen, will share the same line as him in Atlanta. Besides, the Williams Wall and Jared Allen all declined last season and Edwards still had a good season.

I was afraid someone would overpay Edwards to be a #1 pass rusher, but the Falcons needed him as a #2 pass rusher and a solid run stopper at left end. He can do that for them and that’s what they paid him like. I mentioned Abraham’s 13 sacks earlier. Defensive tackle Jonathan Babineaux had 4 sacks in 2010, but 6 in 2009. He’s a talented player.

At the other defensive tackle spot, the starter remains to be seen. Corey Peters, a 2010 3^rd round pick, beat out disappointing 2009 1^st round pick Peria Jerry last season for the starting job. Jerry has been frequently injured in 2 years since being drafted and has not lived up to his billing at all. However, rather ironically, Peters has hurt his knee and, while he won’t require surgery, that injury might have opened the window for Jerry, now healthy and impressing in camp, to step into the starting lineup. If Jerry can live up to his potential, they might have one of the best defensive lines in the league, with Corey Peters as a rotational player at defensive tackle and Kroy Biermann also as a rotational player at defensive end.

At linebacker, middle linebacker Curtis Lofton is the leader of this defense, and also the team leader in tackles from 2010 and an above average player. Sean Weatherspoon, a 2010 1^st round pick, figures to be better in his 2^nd season. Meanwhile, weak side linebacker Stephen Nicholas is back after signing a 5 year deal. He’s a marginal player who could be easily upgraded so I don’t understand why the Falcons made a 5 year commitment to him.

At cornerback, the Falcons gave a big money commitment to Dunta Robinson. He’s not an elite cornerback, though they’re paying him like one. He’s also injury prone. Fortunately for them, Brent Grimes did step up as the elite cornerback they paid Robinson to be. He had the 5^th lowest quarterback rating against of any cornerback in the league. He’s leapfrogged Robinson in the pecking order and will cover #1 receivers this year, while Robinson will cover #2s.

At safety, Thomas DeCoud is a marginal player, while William Moore is a good run stopper, but struggles in coverage. Moore could be better in his 3^rd year. He was a 2^nd round pick in 2009 so he still has upside. All in all, the Falcons return all 4 starters from a secondary that ranked 14^th against the pass in 2010. They should be a little better than that this season because they will have a much better pass rush.

Overall, they should be a better defense this year. Ray Edwards is a big upgrade at left end, while Peria Jerry could finally come into his own at defensive tackle in his 3^rd year. Sean Weatherspoon also should be better in his 2^nd season. The offense should be less one dimensional than it was last season, but I’m not ready to call them an elite offense.

However, the Saints are better this season and they’re more experienced. Drew Brees has won a Super Bowl, while Matt Ryan has yet to win a playoff game. At their best, I think the Saints are the better team and I think the Saints will once again be at their best this season. Also, the mystique of the Georgia Dome is almost all gone. They’ll still be a good home team, but teams won’t fear playing there anymore. They also have to play a first place schedule. They play Green Bay, Detroit, Chicago, New Orleans (twice), Tampa Bay (twice), Philadelphia, Indianapolis, and Houston. That’s 10 tough games right there.

I still think they make the playoffs as a wild card and they could still contend for a Super Bowl, but they’re not going to win this division. They’re not on the level of Green Bay, who destroyed them last year, or New Orleans or Philadelphia, two teams that got better in the offseason.

Quarterback: B+

Running backs: B+

Receiving corps: B+

Offensive line: B+

Run defense: B-

Pass rush: B

Pass coverage: B-

Coaching: B+

Projection: 11-5 2^nd in NFC South