By position
QB Jimmy Clausen
Of the 5 quarterbacks to play a significant portion of their rookie year in recent years, 2 (Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco) had success in their first year. Now, in real life, there’s nothing wrong with your rookie quarterback throwing 20 picks as rookies (Matt Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman) because plenty of rookie quarterbacks (Peyton Manning) threw that many as rookies and turned out all right. However, for fantasy purposes, you wouldn’t want your quarterback throwing 20 picks. The 2 who did alright as rookies in recent years had three things in common, they played in a Pro Style offense, they had good experience at the college level (30 or more starts), and they had good talent around them. Jimmy Clausen has all three of those things, and he was my top overall quarterback prospect this year, so I think he’ll be, at the very least, a fantasy sleeper, putting up Matt Ryan (circa 2008) esque numbers, assuming Clausen wins the starting job.
QB Sam Bradford
Bradford, on the other hand, has 0 of those three things. This is why I still have the Rams struggling this year. Bradford has never played under center, does not have 30 starts at the college level, and certainly does not have adaquate talent around him. If he starts this year, expect 20+ picks and lowly numbers. He’s nothing you’ll want from a fantasy perspective.
QB Tim Tebow
Tebow has one thing working for him, the experience, but he also has an uphill battle to the starting job and an ugly delivery. He may play some in his first year, as an option spread quarterback, a wildcat, and a goal line/short distance quarterback, but I doubt he’ll be fantasy worthy.
RB Ryan Matthews
Matthews was my 3rd rated running back going into the draft, but he has one thing going from him, opportunities. Darren Sproles is not an everydown back and could not even take that many carries away from LT. The Chargers love Matthews and traded up from 28 to 12 to get him. He probably won’t do a ton in terms of catches and might not even have a very good season YPC wise, but if he gets 250-300, which is almost certain, expect 1000-1200 yards and 10-12 touchdowns, as well as 12-16 catches.
RB CJ Spiller
Spiller is more talented than Ryan Matthews, but he has to compete with Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch for the job, so I have no idea how many carries Spiller will get, but I think it’s fairly safe to say he’ll get less carries than Matthews. He’ll do more than Matthews through the air, but since Buffalo does not have a good quarterback or good line, he may struggle in the YPC department.
RB Ben Tate
Tate could get a bunch of carries in Houston, but coach Gary Kubiak is pretty random with his running backs and intolerant of fumbles, which are a common rookie mistake. I rated Steve Slaton high last year and learned my lesson. Tate has upside, but also a clear downside.
RB Jahvid Best
Obviously he moves up if Kevin Smith isn’t ready for the start of the season, but the Lions traded back into the 1st to take him so he’ll obviously get some carries even if Smith plays. I can’t say I am thrilled about the offensive line he’ll run behind, but he has talent.
RB Montario Hardesty
He will reportedly split carries with Jerome Harrison and if Harrison struggles or gets hurt, Hardesty would become the main back in Cleveland, as exciting as that sounds.
RB Jonathan Dwyer
He’ll probably be nothing more than a short yardage back for Pittsburgh this year, but he has talent so he could push Rashard Mendenhall more than we expect.
RB Toby Gerhart
He’s the clear #2 to Adrian Peterson and is not the pass catcher Chester Taylor was so he only has fantasy value if AP gets hurt.
WR Dez Bryant
He’s in a perfect situation opposite Miles Austin, in a pass friendly offense, with Tony Romo as his quarterback. He’ll probably see single coverage all year and Romo will get him the ball in places where he can do something with it. The only issue is drops, which plagued him in college.
WR Damian Williams
If the situations were the same, I’d have Williams over Bryant, but Williams, though slightly more talented, is going to be in a conservative offense in Tennessee with Vince Young as his quarterback.
WR Demaryius Thomas
I didn’t like him as a prospect, but the Broncos did and who else is Kyle Orton going to throw to?
WR Golden Tate
Tate is NFL ready and will start in the #2 spot in an offense he’s familiar in for the Seahawks, but there are issues at quarterback for the Seahawks, which scares me a bit with him.
WR Mike Williams
Williams has been extremely impressive thus far in practices, more impressive than 2nd round pick Arrelious Benn, and I really believe those will be their two starters at receiver. Who else can start? Reggie Brown? Michael Clayton? Sammie Stroughter? Yikes! Williams may be a 4th round pick, but he had 1st or 2nd round talent. He only fell because of character issues and he has behaved himself so far.
WR Arrelious Benn
Benn will probably be the other starter in Tampa Bay’s offense. Off the field stuff not considered, I liked Williams a lot more than Benn coming out of college. What I’m hearing out of camp only solidifies my beliefs.
WR Dexter McCluster
He’ll play the slot in Todd Haley’s scheme, which means a lot of short targets, but I don’t think he’s as good of a pass catcher as most players on this list. I would have liked him as a change of pace and 3rd down back more.
WR Brandon LaFell
LaFell should be the #2 in Carolina’s offense and that has some upside, but John Fox doesn’t like to play rookies.
WR Marshawn Gilyard
He’s a very raw route runner, but he could be one of Sam Bradford’s favorite options this year with Brandon Gibson and Donnie Avery.
TE Jermaine Gresham
The best tight end in the class goes to a great situation where he is pretty much immediately the starter. He also has a very good quarterback too.
TE Rob Gronkowski
His back could be an issue and the Patriots aren’t known for throwing to the tight end, but he has plenty of talent, as does his quarterback.
TE Ed Dickson
If he beats out Todd Heap for the job, he could be the sleeper here. He’s a very underrated player and could put up solid numbers in Baltimore.
TE Aaron Hernandez
Only if he beats out Gronkowski for the role of passing catching tight end in New England. Hernandez fits the scheme like a glove.
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