Updated 9/3/10 

This top 15 list also happens to be the same list as my “list of guys who if you have anyone else as your TE1 you’re screwed list” (name pending). No offense to tight ends 16 on, but if you’re in a 10 or 12 team league, you don’t want the 16th or 17th best tight end as your TE1. The players have been broken up into tiers to show which players will have similar production to the player above them and which will not.

 

Tier 1 

1. Antonio Gates

9/2/10: Gates will become even more involved in the Chargers offense with Jackson out, especially near the goal line. That’s enough to push him over the top and make him my #1 tight end. 

Antonio Gates led all tight ends in yards last year and was the 3^rd ranked tight end last year. I am not as sold on Vernon Davis as the places who say he’ll be the #1 tight end again (more on that in a moment) this year so Gates should be able to move to 2^nd this year.

2. Dallas Clark

Dallas Clark’s 100 reception, 1106 yard, 10 touchdown season last year may have come as a major surprise to some people, but not as much to me. Granted I didn’t know how good he could be, but Clark is a talented tight end in one of the best offenses in football. After his 77 catch, 848 yards 6 touchdown performance in 2008, it was not that hard to imagine him taking it to the next level. This year, nothing has changed. Clark is still a talented tight end in Indy’s high voltage offense and will remain a favorite target of Peyton Manning. I don’t think he’ll completely match what he did last year, but I would be very surprised if he didn’t come close.

3. Vernon Davis

Vernon Davis was the #1 fantasy tight end last year with 78 catches for 965 yards and a whooping 13 scores. However, I do not have him at #1 this year. The Niners will run the ball more this year. They drafted a big run blocking offensive tackle and a big run blocking offensive guard, so that’s pretty much adios to the spread offense. In the 5 games before Alex Smith took over and they started using more spread, Vernon Davis only had 22 receptions for 262 yards and 3 scores. That’s not bad, but at the same time, it’s not what he was in the spread. Also, those 13 touchdowns scare me. Touchdowns can be pretty inconsistent from year to year and if Vernon Davis had 2 less touchdowns last year, he would have been the 3^rd rated fantasy tight end. With Michael Crabtree maturing into more of a goal line threat this year, Davis could see a decrease in touchdowns. Also, Vernon Davis is not the most historically consistent guy. I know last year was a breakout year, but in his first 3 years, Davis had never had more than 52 catches and 4 scores. I have to see him be a top fantasy tight end for at least more than a year to make him my #1. Don’t expect a huge drop off in play from Davis this year, but don’t expect #1 fantasy tight end again. Only 12 points separated Davis and the #3 tight end Antonio Gates last year so a drop from 1^st to 3^rd is not hard to imagine.

Tier 2 

4. Brent Celek

Brent Celek was actually 4^th out of all fantasy tight ends last year with 76 receptions for 971 yards and 8 scores. Not Jason Witten. Not Tony Gonzalez. Brent Celek. Celek has only had one good year as a pro, but, unlike Vernon Davis, I have 3 reasons why that shouldn’t matter much. The first reason, unlike Vernon Davis, Celek hadn’t had a lot of playing time before last year. Celek didn’t improve in a huge way last year. He just got more playing time. For all we know, he could have always been this good. 2^nd reason, Kevin Kolb is now Philly’s quarterback. This assumed downgrade at quarterback should be bad for all of Philly’s receivers, except Kolb. In the two games Kolb started last year, Celek had 16 catches for 208 yards and a touchdown. I know that’s a small sample size, but it’s a sign of good things to come. 3^rd reason, there was actually a pretty big difference between 4^th and 5^th place last year. Celek had 137 points last year. Tony Gonzalez in 5^th has 117 points. That would be a big drop.

Tier 3 

5. Jason Witten

I’m moving Witten above Tony Gonzalez here, even though Gonzalez had more fantasy points last year. Witten only had 2 touchdowns last year. Touchdowns are traditionally one of the more inconsistent fantasy stats from year to year, especially for tight ends. Witten has never been much of a goal line threat, with a career high of 7 touchdowns, but I think he gets more than 2 next year. He’ll probably be closer to 4-5, which is about his career average. Witten has at least 80+ catches in each of the last 3 years and 1000+ yards in 2 of the last 3 yards. If he gets his touchdowns back up, he should surpass Tony Gonzalez in terms of fantasy points, especially when you consider that Gonzalez is 34 and could be due for a down year.

6. Tony Gonzalez

Tony Gonzalez is historically a top 2 or top 3 fantasy tight end and is certainly a future hall of famer. However, last year, he wasn’t. He wasn’t bad or anything as the 5^th rated fantasy tight end with 117 fantasy points, but he wasn’t his old self, whether it be because of age (he was 33 last year) or playing in a new offense for a new team for the first time in his career. This year, at age 34, I don’t expect him to get any better. He’ll probably be overdrafted in your league based off of his past and his name, but don’t expect much more than 80 catches 800 yards and 6 touchdowns.

7. Zach Miller

Jason Campbell loves to throw to his tight ends. In his first 2 years with Jason Campbell at quarterback, Chris Cooley had yards totals of 786 and 849, both of which were career highs at the time. He only managed 1 touchdown in 2008, but with 8 the year before it’s safe to say 2008 was a fluke in terms of touchdowns. In 2009, despite leaving midway through his 7^th game with an injury and going down for the season, Cooley still had 29 catches for 332 yards and 2 scores. In 2009, despite not playing extensively until Cooley got hurt midway through his 7^th game, Fred Davis had 48 catches for 509 yards and 6 scores. Combine those stats with Cooley’s and Washington tight ends had 77 catches for 841 yards and 8 scores last year. Not bad. With Jason Campbell now in Oakland, Zach Miller figures to have a great year. Miller is as talented, if not more talented than Davis and Cooley. In his last 2 years, despite playing with an ugly mix of JaMarcus Russell, Charlie Frye, and Bruce Gradkowski at quarterback, Zach Miller has averaged 61 catches and 792 yards per season. With Jason Campbell at quarterback now, he has a chance to approach 900 yards. Zach Miller has never been much of a touchdown threat, but that’s not really his fault. He may only have 4 touchdowns over the last 2 years, but that’s because the Raiders have only had 23 receiving touchdowns over the last 2 years. In fact, Miller was actually 2^nd on the team in touchdowns last year with 3. Now that they have a quarterback who can actually lead and complete drives to the end zone, Miller should be more in that 5-7 range. At 6-5, you’d figure he’d be their best goal line threat.

 

Tier 4 

8. Jermichael Finley

7/30/10: With Driver hurt, Finley also stands to improve. He’s a tight end and will get a lot of the possession receptions that Driver won’t. He’s also healthy despite there being some questions about his health in the offseason. 

Jermichael Finley was the 13^th rated tight end last year, which is actually pretty impressive considering he missed 3 games with injury and he wasn’t even a starter until week 4. I can’t guarantee his health, his knee is reportedly still bothering him and keeping him out of OTAs, but if he is healthy, he’ll play. Take the stats he had in his 10 starts last year and stretch them across 16 games, and you have 78 catches for 982 yards and 8 touchdowns. There’s some serious upside here.

9. Kellen Winslow 

Josh Freeman has reportedly been putting in a ton of work this offseason, which is really a good thing because he needed a lot of work after his rookie year. However, Freeman’s wideouts are less than stellar. His top returning receiver is slot receiver Sammie Stroughter and he has two talented, but raw rookie receivers in Mike Williams and Arrelious Benn. Winslow is going to be getting plenty of targets next year and if Josh Freeman steps it up at quarterback, Winslow could have a very strong year next year, even better than the 77 catches for 884 yards and 5 scores he had last year. The only big issue, he just had “minor” knee surgery. This might not be an issue if it wasn’t the 5^th time in 6 years that right knee has been operated on.

10. Visanthe Shiancoe

8/24/10: With the 6-4 Rice out of there, Shiancoe will continue to be Favre’s favorite end zone target. He should get double digit scores again and should also be more involved in the passing game between the 20s as well. 

8/6/10: Hey, you know that whole Brett Favre retiring thing. Turns out it was pretty much a hoax. Even though no one in the media heard it straight from his mouth that he was retiring, the entire world went into a panic and assumed he was retiring because of some alleged text messages. 

8/3/10: Downgrade at quarterback = less stats. Favre also made their offense a lot more potent and scored more touchdowns through the air. Shiancoe benefited with 11 scores. However, the 7 he had in 2008 seems more likely for him this year. 

Visanthe Shiancoe was actually the 6^th rated tight end last year. However, much of his success was because he caught 11 touchdowns. He only had 56 catches for 566 yards. Do you really want to bet that he’ll do that again? He could, but then again, 6-4 Sidney Rice could also steal more of his end zones targets. Also, if Brett Favre retires, Shiancoe becomes barely startable. In 2008, Shiancoe had 42 catches for 596 yards and 7 scores. There’s definitely some downside here.

11. Greg Olsen

I had Greg Olsen as a potential top 5 tight end last year. That didn’t happen, he was 10^th, but I’m not giving up on him this year. Jay Cutler loves to throw to his tight ends. In Cutler’s last two years in Denver, tight end Tony Scheffler had a total of 89 catches for 1194 yards and 8 scores. For comparison’s sake, he had 31 catches for 416 and 2 scores last year with Kyle Orton. Cutler is now in his 2^nd year in Chicago, with Chicago’s receivers, and that can only help Olsen this year. Also, Mike Martz is now Chicago’s offensive coordinator, so Chicago should be throwing a bit more this year, also a good thing for Olsen. Olsen is the type of vertical threat tight end that is built to succeed in Martz’ scheme. He’s also only 25 so the former 1^st rounder probably hasn’t reached his full potential yet. Expect him to increase the 60 catches for 612 yards and 8 scores he has last year.

Tier 5 

12. Owen Daniels

9/2/10: Daniels has been activiated from the PUP list and looks likely to start the season opener. There are definitely no guarantees that he will play all 16 games, but he’s very talented when healthy so he could be worth the risk as a TE1.

We’ve seen how good he is when he’s healthy. Daniels had 70 catches for 862 yards and 2 scores in 2008. However, he’s already torn his ACL 3 times. I’m no doctor, but that’s not good. The Texans wouldn’t have drafted 3 tight ends (4 if you count Dorin Dickerson, though he’s probably a receiver or fullback longterm) in the last 2 years, if they were completely sold on his health. At the same time, they wouldn’t have given him a 1^st/3^rd tender if they didn’t like his talent when healthy. This is a serious boom or bust pick and if you draft Daniels, you should probably draft another solid tight end to pair with him.

13. Heath Miller

9/3/10: Moving Ben’s TE up as well. Miller had a breakout year last year and is vastly underrated this year. 

Last year, I had Heath Miller as a sleeper and he delivered with a career high 76 catches for a career high 789 yards and 6 scores. This year, I’m not so optimistic. The drop off from Ben Roethlisberger to either Byron Leftwich or Dennis Dixon for 6 games is going to be a significant one. 

14. John Carlson

John Carlson had pretty solid stats last year for someone often used as a blocker. This year, the Seahawks have signed Chris Baker to take care of more of the blocking, and they drafted Russell Okung in the first so their line shouldn’t be as bad. Carlson will be free to run more routes and catch more balls in his 3^rd year in the league.

15. Jermaine Gresham

I have no idea how Gresham will be used this year. The Bengals have never had a pass catching tight end of his caliber in the Carson Palmer era. I don’t know how his knee will be after the surgery he had last year and I don’t know how he’ll respond to his first competitive football since 2008 (thanks to knee surgery). I do know that, if used right and healthy and 100%, he has the talent to be a fantasy starter caliber tight end next year, even as a rookie. There’s risk here, but if you’re looking for a high upside tight end to pair with a more reliable guy like Heath Miller, Gresham’s a solid option.