What if free agency worked like the draft?
Rules:
Only unrestricted free agents
Only players not under contract- players who have been franchised or recently extended don’t count
1. Indianapolis Colts- RLB Mario Williams (Houston)
Peyton Manning is my top rated free agent, but the Colts just cut him so it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense for them to take him back. Mario Williams is my #2 free agent and he makes a lot of sense here. He’s one of the best pass rushers to hit the open market this decade and the Colts would be stealing him from a divisional rival. Robert Mathis is getting older and Dwight Freeney could be traded before the draft so Mario Williams fits a need as well and has experienced in whatever defensive scheme the Colts decide to run next season.
2. St. Louis Rams- G Carl Nicks (New Orleans)
Peyton Manning doesn’t make a whole lot of sense here either so they go to my #3 rated of the remaining free agents, Carl Nicks. Jacob Bell is as good as gone at left guard and Nicks would be a huge upgrade at the position for them. He’s arguably the best guard in the league and the Rams really need help on the offensive line.
3. Minnesota Vikings- WR Vincent Jackson (San Diego)
I thought about Peyton Manning here, but the Vikings haven’t really shown that much interest in him and probably for the same reason they haven’t shown a whole lot of interest in trading up to get Robert Griffin or even drafting him if he falls to them at #3. Christian Ponder is their guy. Given that, I’m sure they’d love to get their hands on Vincent Jackson, the top remaining wide receiver on the open market.
4. Cleveland Browns- QB Peyton Manning (Indianapolis)
Cleveland has interest in Peyton Manning, but it’s highly unlikely he goes there. Manning won’t want to go to such a desolate place when he has a choice between the money in Washington and the opportunity to throw to Brandon Marshall or Larry Fitzgerald in Miami and Arizona respectively. However, he doesn’t have a choice here and the Browns would love if he was in their uniform for next season.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- MLB Stephen Tulloch (Detroit)
The Buccaneers need major help in their back 7 and Stephen Tulloch is the top rated back 7 player in this draft class. He would provide an instant upgrade at middle linebacker and allow Mason Foster to move outside to his natural position.
6. Washington Redskins- WR Marques Colston (New Orleans)
The Redskins have money to play with and are known to be interested in signing one of the market’s top receivers. They’ve been linked to Vincent Jackson, but I’m sure they wouldn’t mind settling for Marques Colston.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars- CB Cortland Finnegan (Tennessee)
They desperately need offensive help, but by my board, most of the best available are defensive players except Chris Myers, who doesn’t really fill a need at center. Cortland Finnegan is the best available and also fills a need. Rashean Mathis is a free agent and a declining player coming off a major injury. Cortland Finnegan would give them an upgrade opposite Derek Cox.
8. Miami Dolphins- MLB Curtis Lofton (Atlanta)
Best player available who makes any sense for them as Chris Myers again wouldn’t fill a need at center. The Dolphins have two of their linebackers for their 4-3 defense, Karlos Dansby and Kevin Burnett, and are expected to use Koa Misi as the 3rd. However, I think Curtis Lofton would be a huge upgrade over Misi. Lofton can play in the middle with Burnett and Dansby on the outside.
9. Carolina Panthers- DT Sione Pouha (NY Jets)
The Panthers have huge needs at defensive tackle and cornerback. Brandon Carr would fill that need at cornerback, but Sione Pouha would also fill their need at defensive tackle and I have him higher on my free agency board. They drafted Sione Fua and Terrell McClain in the 3rd round last year, but neither of them did anything. Pouha would be an instant upgrade.
10. Buffalo Bills- CB Brandon Carr (Kansas City)
Buddy Nix mentioned adding another cornerback as a draft need of theirs. It’s not their biggest need, but at the same time, Brandon Carr would be their best cornerback and he is the best available player who makes any sense.
11. Kansas City Chiefs- C Chris Myers (Houston)
Casey Wiegmann turns 39 in July so he won’t be around too much longer. The Chiefs drafted Rodney Hudson in the 2nd round last year to be his successor, but this way they can keep him at guard long term. Chris Myers is best available and fills a need.
12. Seattle Seahawks- MLB London Fletcher (Washington)
The Seahawks could easily lose David Hawthorne this offseason. London Fletcher is rated higher on my free agency board than Hawthorne so the Redskins take him here instead.
13. Arizona Cardinals- QB Alex Smith (San Francisco)
The Cardinals gave up the farm for Kevin Kolb last offseason, but they still need a long term solution at quarterback. They want Peyton Manning, but I’m sure they wouldn’t mind stealing Alex Smith from a division rival.
14. Dallas Cowboys- G Ben Grubbs (Baltimore)
The Cowboys have two good tackles in Doug Free and Tyron Smith, but the interior of their offensive line is a mess. They’re going to be one of the leading suitors for Carl Nicks. Here they get Ben Grubbs, the #2 guard on the market.
15. Philadelphia Eagles- MLB David Hawthorne (Seattle)
The Eagles have a desperate need for a middle linebacker and are expected to sign either Stephen Tulloch or Curtis Lofton. Here they have to “settle” for David Hawthorne, but I guess that’s not so bad.
16. New York Jets- WR Brandon Lloyd (St. Louis)
The Jets aren’t expected to resign Plaxico Burress so they sign Brandon Lloyd to play opposite Santonio Holmes. So they take Brandon Lloyd here and keep him away from division rival New England, who is expected to be his leading suitor.
17. Cincinnati Bengals- CB Carlos Rogers (San Francisco)
Leon Hall is no sure thing in 2012 after tearing his Achilles late in the 2011 season. Meanwhile, Nate Clements is a marginal player on the decline. Carlos Rogers gives them another cornerback in the mix and is the best player available who makes sense.
18. San Diego Chargers- RLB Mark Anderson (New England)
I have John Abraham and Jeremy Mincey rated higher on my board as pass rushers, but Mark Anderson is close behind them and I trust him more in a 3-4 scheme like the Chargers run because of his athleticism and quickness. The Chargers really need to find a pass rusher this offseason. They’ll go after Mario Williams and if they can’t get him, expect them to use an early pick in the 2012 NFL Draft on a rush linebacker.
19. Chicago Bears- DE John Abraham (Atlanta)
Abraham has been passed up by a few teams because of lack of need and questions about how he’d fit in a 3-4 scheme, but the Bears run a 4-3 and could use a pass rusher like Abraham. Isreal Idonije is a marginal free agent and opposing quarterbacks would shit their pants knowing that the Bears would have both Julius Peppers and John Abraham. Even at 34 in May, Abraham is still a talented pass rusher who had 9.5 sacks last season. He’s also the active leader in sacks and 16th all-time, believe it or not.
20. Tennessee Titans- DE Jeremy Mincey (Jacksonville)
Jeremy Mincey is another player who has been passed on for lack of need and scheme fit, but the Titans were one of the worst pass rushing teams in the league last year and seeing as they run a 4-3, they’d love to steal Mincey away from division rival Jacksonville. Mincey had 8 sacks in a breakout season for the Jaguars in 2011.
21. Cincinnati Bengals- RB Michael Bush (Oakland)
The Bengals are likely to add Michael Bush in free agency. They can offer him the most money and the biggest share of the carries. They get him here too as he’s the best available player who makes sense.
22. Cleveland Browns- WR Pierre Garcon (Indianapolis)
The Browns already got Peyton Manning. Why not take one of his wide receivers as well? Reggie Wayne is a possibility here as well because of the fit with Peyton Manning, but Garcon is younger and higher on my board. In fact, he’s the best available player who makes any sense for the Browns, who are starved for offensive playmakers.
23. Detroit Lions- C Scott Wells (Green Bay)
Scott Wells is the best available and falls to Detroit because of his position. However, Dominic Raiola is on the decline in Detroit and I’m sure the Lions would love to steal one of the best centers in the league from division rival Detroit.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers- NT Paul Soliai (Miami)
The Steelers age is catching up with them on defense. They had to cut James Farrior, while Casey Hampton won’t be around any longer than a season. Hampton will be a 35 year old free agent next offseason and while middle linebacker is a more pressing need after Farrior was cut, nose tackle is a need as well and Soliai is higher on my board than any middle linebacker left. Soliai is still young and would be a nose tackle of the future for Pittsburgh. He won’t be back in Miami, but not for lack of talent. He just isn’t a good fit for their new 4-3 defense.
25. Denver Broncos- WR Mario Manningham (NY Giants)
I’m sure Tebow would love someone else to throw to other than Demaryius Thomas. Mario Manningham won’t be back in New York because they won’t pay Manningham #2 receiver money to be their #3 receiver, but the Broncos could certainly use him.
26. Houston Texans- C Nick Hardwick (San Diego)
The Texans lose Chris Myers in this one, but they sign Nick Hardwick to be his replacement, which makes the loss of Myers more bearable. Hardwick is the best available who makes any sense.
27. New England Patriots- 3-4 DE Red Bryant (Seattle)
I like the fit of Bryant in New England. He can play both defensive tackle and defensive end in a 4-3 and he can also play 3-4 defensive end. The Patriots could use a hybrid defensive scheme in 2012 and Bryant would be a great fit for it at a position of need.
28. Green Bay Packers- RLB Jarret Johnson (Baltimore)
Johnson falls because of questions about his position. He played both 4-3 and 3-4 outside linebacker for Baltimore last season, but he doesn’t have a true position. He’s a great run stopper, but not much of a pass rusher and the teams above Green Bay don’t need 3-4 or 4-3 outside linebackers. However, Green Bay won’t pass on him. He’s not a great pass rusher, but they have a huge need opposite Clay Matthews.
29. Baltimore Ravens- OT Jared Gaither (San Diego)
Gaither got his start in Baltimore as a left tackle, but was cut because of injury problems. He showed himself to be healthy in the tail end of last season as a left tackle in San Diego, but in a weak offensive tackle class, that makes him the best offensive tackle on the market. The Ravens have been searching for a new left tackle since he left and I’m sure they would welcome him back.
30. San Francisco 49ers- QB Matt Flynn (Green Bay)
The 49ers lose Alex Smith here so they have no choice but to reach for Matt Flynn. In reality, however, I say there’s a 99.9% percent chance Smith is back in San Francisco and he gets a deal in the range of Matt Cassel, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Kevin Kolb.
31. New England Patriots- WR Reggie Wayne (Indianapolis)
The Patriots are interested in Brandon Lloyd to be an upgrade as their #2 receiver over Deion Branch, a free agent. However, they miss out on him in this scenario. Why not add Reggie Wayne? The Patriots like signing wide receivers on the cheap after age 30, with mixed results. Wayne is probably a safer choice than Torry Holt, Joey Galloway, and Chad Ochocinco.
32. New York Giants- OT Demetrius Bell (Buffalo)
They may have won the Super Bowl, but don’t thank their offensive line. David Diehl struggled at both left guard and left tackle last season, after struggling at left tackle in 2010. He’s expected to play right tackle next year as the Giants part ways with Kareem McKenzie, who also struggled. I don’t see that ending well. Bell is really good when healthy and the Giants take a chance on him here in a weak offensive tackle class as a potential long term bookend tackle with William Beatty.
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