9/6/11: The Jacksonville Jaguars have cut David Garrard 5 games before the season starter, further proving they have no plan. If they had decided to get rid of him a month ago, they could have at least gotten a mid rounder for him (Seattle, Miami, etc.) and they would have had a month to get acclimated to Luke McCown as a starting quarterback. Now they have 5 days and got nothing in return for him. This after spending most of their draft to move up to grab a quarterback for the future and then spending 100 million dollars in the offseason for the present.

At the very least, the front office is sending out mixing signals which is always demotivating for the players. On top of that they have a lame duck had head coach who has just been hung out to dry by the front office. Del Rio needs to make the playoffs this season to save his job and all of a sudden, his starting quarterback is gone. They also don’t have a lot of talent. They ranked 32^nd against the pass last season and 30^th against the run (in terms of YPC and YPA). They have a journeyman quarterback, a poor offensive line, go one deep at wide receiver, and their best player, MJD, isn’t 100%. This could easily be the worst team in the league. They remind me of the 2010 Carolina Panthers. 

All the Jaguars had to do was beat the Colts week 15 and they had the division and the playoffs wrapped up with 2 weeks to spare. However, they didn’t beat the Colts week 15. Then they lost week 16. Then they lost week 17. They ended up missing the postseason entirely, finishing 8-8 as the Colts once again won the division.

In the offseason, they took a weird strategy. Through the draft, they built for the distant future trading away their first 2 picks to move up 6 slots to take Blaine Gabbert as their quarterback of the future. As a result of this, they didn’t have very many picks, especially early picks, and they weren’t able to fill any of their needs (cornerback, safety, wide receiver, defensive end).

However, in free agency, they seemed to be building for now, signing Paul Posluszny, Clint Session, and Dawan Landry all to long term deals worth a lot of money. As a result, you have a team built to win now, but with identity issues. Their starting quarterback, David Garrard, no longer has the support of the coaching staff, never a good thing. Even the great Brett Favre went 4-12 the year after the Packers drafted his successor, Aaron Rodgers. Same with Donovan McNabb, who went 8-8 and finished in last place the season after they drafted Kevin Kolb.

The Gabbert pick is going to look genius if he ends up being their franchise quarterback for 10 years, but it’s going to hurt them this year. If Garrard is benched for Gabbert, Gabbert should struggle as a rookie after a lockout. It doesn’t help that I wasn’t high on Gabbert coming out, so naturally I think he’ll struggle.

The quarterback situation isn’t the only problem they have on offense. Maurice Jones Drew has been their best offensive player for years, since Fred Taylor moved on. However, he’s not 100%. He’ll try to play through a knee injury, but it’s safe to say he won’t be quite as good as he normally is. The Jaguars will be hoping backup running back Rashad Jennings can continue his 5.4 career yards per carry average as he gets more work this season.

At wide receiver things don’t get much better. Mike Thomas is their #1 receiver. He’d be a nice #2 receiver, but he’s not a #1. He doesn’t have game breaking speed and he’s not a great red zone target. He’s a nice possession receiver, but that’s it. Opposite him, Jason Hill is penciled in as a starter. Hill has spent 4 bland seasons as a depth receiver for the 49ers and the Jaguars. He’s only a starter because they don’t have anyone better.

Hill will have some competition for his job, but it’s not like the other candidates are too much better. Cecil Shorts is a 4^th round rookie and the favorite to start in the slot. Jarett Dillard was a 5^th rounder in 2009 who caught 6 passes as a rookie and missed all of his 2^nd season with an injury. Tiquan Underwood could also be in the mix. After being solely a special teamer as a 7^th round rookie in 2009, he caught 8 passes last year. So basically, they don’t have a lot of talent at this position.

Their best receiver last year was Marcedes Lewis. Lewis, a former 1^st round pick at tight end, finally broke out as a receiver last season after 4 years of being known simply as a strong blocker. He was 2^nd on the team in receptions and yards and first in touchdowns, in addition to remaining a strong blocker. However, it’s possible he was just playing for a new contract. It remains to be seen if he can put together another good year now that he’s gotten paid.

On the offensive line, things don’t get a ton better. Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton are the two tackles. They were drafted in the 1^st and 2^nd rounds in 2009 respectively, but neither have really lived up to that. Now in their 3^rd year, they’ll need to start playing better. At right guard, they return Uche Nwaneri, a mediocre guard who allowed 5 sacks last season.

At left guard, they signed another mediocre guard, Jason Spitz, formerly a reserve for the Green Bay Packers. It’s possible that 3^rd round pick Will Rackley could take over for either one of these two at some point this season. Their best offensive lineman is Brad Meester, their center. Meester has been an above average offensive lineman for the Jaguars for 11 seasons, but he’s 34 years old and he’s had injury problems in the past so he’s no guarantee.

 

Defensively, they should be pretty bad once again, especially against the pass. They ranked 32^nd, dead last, in the league in terms of yards per attempt allowed. They spent a lot of money on free agents on the defensive side of the ball, but I think they overpaid all 3 of their big free agent signings. Clint Session is a marginal outside linebacker. Paul Posluszny will start in the middle. He’s a good player, but I think they also overpaid for him, just a bit. Dawan Landry is an upgrade at safety, but he’s not great in coverage so I don’t think he was worth what they paid him.

I don’t know that their pass defense will be much better. They didn’t upgrade their pass rush, their cornerbacks, or the free safety position. All of their money was spent on two linebackers and a strong safety. Don Carey will once again start at free safety next to Landry. He was the 5^th worst safety in the league in terms of quarterback rating allowed. He allowed an 80% completion percentage and 2 touchdowns to one interception, a huge part of the reason why this pass defense was so bad once again.

At cornerback, Rashean Mathis was the 6^th worst cornerback in the league in terms of quarterback rating allowed. He allowed a completion percentage of 59.1% and 5 touchdowns to 1 interception. Derek Cox, the 3^rd year cornerback, might be their best in pass coverage. However, he’s not a #1 cornerback in this league. He’s best off as a #2 or a nickel back. He’s got good ball skills with 8 picks in 2 seasons, but he gives up too many big plays and commits too many penalties.

Their pass coverage might not be so bad if their pass rush wasn’t terrible. After a mere 14 sacks in 2009, the Jaguars signed Aaron Kampman in the offseason. He tore his ACL, his 2^nd such injury in as many years, and the Jaguars only had 26 sacks, once again among the worst in the league. Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves were supposed to be the future at defensive end after being drafted in the 1^st and 2^nd rounds respectively in 2008. Both disappointed and neither are with the team anymore.

The Jaguars signed Matt Roth in free agency, but he hasn’t played in a 4-3 as a pro and he’s not even that great of a pass rusher anyway. Roth should start opposite Kampman, provided Kampman can even stay healthy. If not, they have Jeremy Mincey waiting in the wings. Mincey led the team with 5 sacks last year despite barely playing until Kampman went down.

2^nd and 4^th respectively on their team in sacks last season were Terrance Knighton and Tyson Alualu (Kampman was 3^rd, by the way). Those two will start at defensive tackle. Alualu is a nice pass rusher, but he’s undersized and struggles against the run, a big part of the reason why the Jaguars were 30^th against the run last year. He’s done better than most thought he would after the Jaguars surprisingly drafted him 10^th overall in 2010, but he’s still not a great player.

Knighton, meanwhile, is struggling with weight problems following the lockout. He has yet to even practice. If he’s not ready for the start of the season, the Jaguars don’t have another proven defensive tackle on their roster. D’Anthony Smith was their 3^rd round pick in 2010. He missed his whole rookie season with an Achilles tear, but he still has some upside.

At linebacker, next to Posluszky and Session, the Jaguars will start Daryl Smith. Smith is an above average strong side linebacker. However, I don’t know that Posluszky and Session are necessarily even that much of an upgrade over Justin Durant and Kirk Morrison, their starters at linebacker next to Daryl Smith last season.

Overall, this is going to be one of the worst teams in the league this year. They may have won 8 games last year, but I don’t think they deserved to. One was on a Hail Mary, another on a 59 yard field goal. They had a minus 66 differential, which means they won a lot of close games and lost a lot of games by a big margin. There was a lot of luck involved there. They probably won’t be as lucky this season.

On top of that, they have a starting quarterback who has lost his coach’s and front office’s confidence and a backup quarterback who isn’t ready. Their top offensive player isn’t 100%, their receiving corps go 1 deep and that’s it, their tight end might not give 100% after getting a ton of money, and their offensive line isn’t too good either.

On defense, they still will struggle to defend the pass, a very bad thing in this pass heavy league. They also struggled to stop the run last year and their best run stuffer is out of shape. They allowed the 6^th most points and the 5^th most yards last year and only won games on a combination of their luck and decent offensive play. I don’t think they’ll have either of those things this season. On top of this, they have a lame duck head coach in Jack Del Rio.

Quarterbacks: D

Running backs: B+

Receiving corps: D

Offensive line: C

Run defense: C-

Pass rush: D

Pass coverage: F

Coaching: D

Projection: 2-14 4th in AFC South