Safety

Boise State

5-10 212

Draft Board Overall Prospect Rank: #97

Draft Board Overall Safety Rank: #4

Rating: 68 (late 3rd-early 4th)

40 time : 4.55

2/28/11: Excellent job bulking up. Johnson is a strong safety at the next level so getting up to 212 from the 190s is very helpful, of course, provided he runs well.

2/20/11: In terms of pure football ability, Johnson is a 2^nd round prospect. He is a very instinctual football player against the run and holds his own against the pass. He’s not an elite athlete with a mid-late 4.5 40 at under 6 feet and under 200 pounds, but he knows how to play the game well. He’s got an elite mean streak and a non-stop motor. He’s always around the football, with 271 tackles in the last 3 years. He takes good routes to the ball and wraps up well most of the time, though occasionally his aggressive gets the best of him.

He’s not a ballhawk and doesn’t make a lot of plays on the ball in the air. He’s decent in coverage, but his deficiencies in coverage and lack of athleticism make him a strong safety and that’s where the problem lies. That’s why he’s not a 2^nd round prospect. He’s very small for a strong safety. Not only could he have issues with more physical running backs in the NFL, his body could break down really fast, a la another smaller strong safety, Bob Sanders. Even bigger safeties, Ed Reed, Troy Polamalu, have trouble staying healthy because they have to hit like a linebacker at the size of a cornerback.

He has similar issues to Mike Mayock’s favorite sleeper, Ahmad Black. Black, however, is significantly smaller, about 5-9 and 180 or 185 pounds. That’s an even bigger risk and I think Johnson is the better football player, on top of that. That’s why I have Black as a 5^th round grade, though guys like Mayock have a 2^nd round grade on him.

That being said, I’d still use a late day 2 early day 3 pick on Johnson. Even if his career might not be that long, he’s still got value in the short term. He’s ready to play and could probably start year one. He says he models his game after a healthy version of Bob Sanders and I see a lot of that in his game, though, I’m not ready to say he’ll be as good as the 2006 Defensive Player of the Year.

His 40 time will be really important because if it falls into the 4.6s or lower, he could slip. As a prospect, he reminds me a little bit of TJ Ward, who I wasn’t a huge fan of, but Ward, after making a surprise leap into the 2^nd round, was one of the better defensive rookies in the league this year. Johnson could have a similar immediate impact, even if he doesn’t get drafted in the 2^nd like Ward.

NFL Comparison: TJ Ward