I have broken my sleepers into 4 categories this year. Mid Round Upside Picks, Mid Round Value Picks, Late Round Upside Picks, Late Round Value Picks. A Mid Round Upside Pick, as I will list here, is anyone available in the late rounds (13th-15th) of a 12 team draft, that has the potential to be a lot more productive than where they are getting drafted. They aren’t guaranteed to be great players, but they have the potential to be worth a lot more than where they are drafted.
All average draft position (ADP) stats are as of 9/1/10 and were found at ESPN.com. ADP stats serve to provide you an estimate of when you should take these players and when you can expect them to be off of the board and thus ADP stats are crucial when dealing with upside and value picks.
WR Brandon LaFell CAR
ADP: 170th
8/10/10: As I suspected he could, Brandon LaFell is shining in Steve Smith’s absence and is likely to beat out the terrible Dwayne Jarrett for the #2 receiving job. John Fox doesn’t normally start rookies, but that just goes to show you how talented a 3rd rounder this kid is and how horrible a receiver Dwayne Jarrett is. Smith is extremely injury prone so LaFell would have major value in his absense and Smith is also 5-9 so the 6-2 LaFell is probably going to be Matt Moore’s favorite goal line wide out. He is some, but not huge fantasy upside this year and is worth a late round pick in some leagues.
6/29/10: If anyone is going to benefit from Smith’s injury, it’s LaFell. LaFell hasn’t been seeing a lot of time with the first time in practice, but that’s because Carolina coach John Fox always gives veterans the first shot at winning a starting job and LaFell is a 3rd round pick rookie. 4th year receiver Dwayne Jarrett has been getting all the first team reps in camp opposite Smith, but with Smith out, Fox really has no choice but to give LaFell more work. If he impresses with the first team, he could take the job from Jarrett. There’s no question in my mind that LaFell is more talented than Jarrett, even as a rookie. Jarrett has been horrible in his first 3 years since being drafted in the 2nd out of USC. He has, on many occasions, looked completely lost on the football field. If LaFell takes the starting job from him, he could have some fantasy value, especially if Smith doesn’t come back 100% opposite him. I’m not ready to make him a sleeper yet, but keep your eye on him.
WR Mike Thomas- JAC
ADP: 170th
I loved Thomas coming out of school and he will be the #2 receiver for the Jaguars this year. He should be able to get close to Torry Holt’s yards from 2009, 772 yards. He’s not an endzone threat, but he could end up leading the team in receiving yards if Mike Sims Walker stays inconsistent next year.
TE Jermaine Gresham- CIN
ADP: 140th
I have no idea how Gresham will be used this year. The Bengals have never had a pass catching tight end of his caliber in the Carson Palmer era. I don’t know how his knee will be after the surgery he had last year and I don’t know how he’ll respond to his first competitive football since 2008 (thanks to knee surgery). I do know that, if used right and healthy and 100%, he has the talent to be a fantasy starter caliber tight end this year, even as a rookie. There’s risk here, but if you’re looking for a high upside tight end to pair with a more reliable guy like Heath Miller, Gresham’s a solid option.
RB Bernard Scott- CIN
ADP: 148th
6/29/10: If Benson gets suspended, Scott looks like the go to back. He’s very talented and can put up numbers for you. Scott was already a fantasy sleeper of mine because of Benson’s history of injuries and arrestes, but now he becomes even more of a fantasy sleeper as Benson’s history rears its head again.
Cedric Benson is not the most durable guy in NFL history and he had a ton of carries last year, 301. If Benson gets hurt this year, Scott will benefit and be a solid RB2 for a few weeks. Benson’s 2009 may have also been a fluke.
QB Josh Freeman- TB
ADP: 170th
Freeman put in a ton of work in the off season and he has former 1st round pick talent. He had a horrible and horribly inconsistent rookie year last year, but he has upside of this year because of his work ethic and his natural physical abilities and talent. His supporting cast won’t help him out as much as Sanchez’ or Stafford’s will, but he still is a high upside QB2.
WR Mike Williams- TB
ADP: 136th
8/31/10: Williams has looked amazing this preseason and is the clear #1 wide receiver for the Bucs.
QB Matt Moore- CAR
ADP: 170th
Moore wasn’t much better than Clausen in their 2nd preseason game as, even without Darrelle Revis, the Jets secondary completely shut down the Panthers aerial attack. However, Clausen’s performance was so bad he all but eliminated himself from the starting job competition. Moore looks like the guy and therefore an interesting late round sleeper. Despite his 2nd week performance, Moore is still a talented and underrated quarterback who put up solid numbers to end the last year. He is the reason why I believe the Panthers will win many games against spread. This is a very underrated bunch.
WR Legedu Naanee- SD
ADP: 170th
9/3/10: The Chargers have traded for Patrick Crayton who will likely cut into Naanee’s targets.
9/2/10: With Jackson out, Naanee would become a starter in the Chargers offense. He has looked decent in the preseason and has some late round upside.
7/24/10: If Jackson holds out, Naanee will be their starter for 6 weeks, instead of 3. He’ll probably go to the bench when Jackson shows up, but they might be so mad at him they don’t even hurt him. Naanee is a shot at a very good and surprising fantasy season.
WR Louis Murphy- OAK
ADP: 145th
8/24/10: With Schilens out, the 2nd year Murphy shined. Murphy was their best receiver when he played last year, with Darrius Heyward Bey struggling and Schilens not 100% after his foot injury, and if Schilens is less than 100% again or misses anytime, Murphy could be a solid WR3 for a few weeks. He’s worth a look late in your fantasy draft. He’d be a huge fantasy player if Schilens missed any time with a foot injury or knee surgery.
WR Brandon Gibson- STL
ADP: 170th
8/31/10: Someone has to lead the Rams in receiving with Avery down…right? With Avery down and Laurent Robinson unable to catch a single ball, on 4 targets, in his absense, Gibson, who showed flashes of good things to come last year as a rookie, could end up as the top receiver in St. Louis.
TE Rob Gronkowski- NE
ADP: 170th
8/31/10: Gronkowski definitely doesn’t look like a rookie this preseason. He’s a big physical tight end and he should be the starter in New England’s explosive offense. He’s not going to be a top 15 tight end of mine, but he’s certainly someone to keep your eye on. He looks like a true end zone weapon.
WR Brian Hartline- MIA
ADP: 170th
8/31/10: Hartline has looked good in the preseason so far and with Greg Camarillo gone, there are fewer talented receivers to steal receptions from him. He’s someone to keep your eye on as Miami’s #2 receiver.
WR Mike Williams- SEA
ADP: 170th
9/3/10: Housh is out. Deion Branch is injury prone. That leaves Mike Williams and Deon Butler as the only two potentially fantasy worthy receiver on the team. Williams is more athletic than the 2nd year Butler, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Butler ended up the team leader in receiving yards.
Football Fan Spot 