I have broken my sleepers into 4 categories this year. Mid Round Upside Picks, Mid Round Value Picks, Late Round Upside Picks, Late Round Value Picks. A Mid Round Upside Pick, as I will list here, is anyone available in the mid rounds (8th-12th) of a 12 team draft, that has the potential to be a lot more productive than where they are getting drafted. They aren’t guaranteed to be great players, but they have the potential to be starting caliber fantasy players at their position and they are getting drafted too low.
All average draft position (ADP) stats are as of 9/1/10 and were found at ESPN.com. ADP stats serve to provide you an estimate of when you should take these players and when you can expect them to be off of the board and thus ADP stats are crucial when dealing with upside and value picks.
WR Malcom Floyd- SD
ADP: 121st
9/2/10: If Jackson has truly played his last game as a Charger, Floyd’s value goes up even more. He has certainly looked like a #1 receiver this preseason and could match Jackson’s 2009 numbers, 1167 yards and 9 scores.
7/24/10: While Jackson is out, Floyd has even more time to build a bond with quarterback Phillip Rivers. If he doesn’t have 1000 yards this year, I would be shocked.
7/9/10: I had him as a sleeper based on the potential that Jackson would get suspended. Now Floyd will be the Chargers #1 receiver for at least 3 weeks next year. This guy already had 34 catches for 525 yards in his 8 starts last year as their #2 receiver, now he has at least 3 weeks of being the #1 guy in that offense and 3 weeks of no Vincent Jackson to take away red zone looks. This guy is a major sleeper and could be a top 15 fantasy wide receiver if Jackson gets traded.
Malcom Floyd broke out last year at age 28. He had 41 catches for 776 yards and 1 score. That 1 score looks like a fluke because he’s 6-5. I expect more touchdowns for him. Facing his first full season as a starter, 40 catches for 750 yards and 5 scores looks like the floor for him. His ceiling is a lot higher. In his last 8 games, after Chris Chambers’ release officially made him a starter, Floyd had 34 catches for 525 yards. Over 16 games, that’s 68 catches for 1050 yards. Add in the fact that Vincent Jackson could be facing a 4 game suspension to start the season, making Floyd Phillip Rivers’ #1 receiver, and you’ve got yourself a fantasy sleeper.
RB Michael Bush- OAK
ADP: 97th
8/31/10: Bush broke his thumb in his 3rd preseason game and his status for the Raiders first 1-3 weeks is in doubt.
8/24/10: Bush has taken advantage of McFadden’s injury and looks in line to win the starting running back job in Oakland. He’s a very talented back and will almost certainly be a 1000 yard guy if given 250+ carries. He also has decent hands and good size near the end zone, provided the Raiders make it to the end zone with more consistency this year than years past.
Clearly Oakland’s most talented back, averaging 4.8 YPC last year, despite running behind a crappy line with a fat pile of crap at quarterback. With an upgraded line and a drastically upgraded quarterback, Bush should have no problem getting to 1000 yards with enough carries. The enough carries is the hard part. He only got 123 last year and I think he needs at least 90-100 more to get past the 1000 yard mark. The coaching staff is still invested in Darren McFadden because of his salary and is still invested in Justin Fargas for god knows why. Bush is taking all the 1st team snaps in OTAs, which is a good sign, but there’s still a long way to go.
QB Chad Henne- MIA
ADP: 126th
Henne had 274 completions in 451 attempts for 2878 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 14 picks last year, in 13 and a half games. Do some crazy math and you get 331 for 535 for 3411 yards, 14 touchdowns, and 17 picks. How much better could Chad Henne be this year than last year? Take a look at Kyle Orton. Going from Chicago to Denver, Orton went from a mediocre receiving corps, to a mediocre receiving corps plus Brandon Marshall. Orton threw for 830 more yards, 3 more scores, without having any more picks. There are plenty more reasons why Henne should improve with Marshall than was the case with Orton. Henne has a stronger arm to hit Marshall downfield. Henne isn’t learning a new scheme. Henne is going into only his 2nd year as a starter, 3rd year in the league, and figures to get better simply from experience. Now, some of you may say, yeah, but Orton threw 76 more times between 2008 and 2009. This is true, but this is also a result of playing with Marshall. When you have a true deep threat, teams tend to pass more. Miami will pass more this year, which means more attempts for Henne. More attempts, more experience, better effectiveness, Henne should definitely be on your high upside list. I don’t have him listed as a top 15 quarterback, but he could end up there and if you have a low end QB1 (McNabb, Eli Manning, Cutler), Henne would make a nice backup.
QB Mark Sanchez- NYJ
ADP: 126th
Sanchez struggled in his rookie year, statistically, though he did lead his team to the AFC Championship game, but he had 20 picks in 364 attempts, which is not good by any stretch of the imagination. That being said, he was a rookie and we’ve seen rookies bounce back from bad rookie years to have good sophomore years before. Sanchez has the talent and he certainly has the supporting cast, so he has the potential to be a low end QB1. Pair him with another low end QB (McNabb, Eli Manning, Cutler).
QB Matt Stafford- DET
ADP: 128th
Basically the same story with Sanchez, but I think Stafford is more talented and has less of a supporting cast. A full season of the Megatron helps though. Calvin Johnson missed time and was relatively ineffective while on the field thanks to injuries last year. He could break out so he has some upside as a high upside QB2. His potential is as a low end QB1 so pair him with another low end QB1 like I said with Sanchez and Henne (McNabb, Manning, Cutler, you know the drill).
RB Montario Hardesty- CLE
ADP: 128th
7/24/10: Every news source in Cleveland is reporting that 2nd round pick Hardesty will be the lead back for the Browns this year and that he’s getting the bulk of the 1stteam carries already. If he gets 200 carries, he could be good for 800 rushing yards, 1000 total yards, and a few scores.
WR Johnny Knox- CHI
ADP: 112th
8/31/10: After 3rd preseason games, Knox is clearly the top wide receiver in Chicago’s offense.
8/12/10: I’m hearing from many sources that the 2nd year receiver is playing amazingly in camp and looks like the favorite to win the #1 receiver job over Devin Aromashodu and Devin Hester. He won’t be a true #1 because the Bears will throw the ball all over the field, but with his speed he’s perfect for Mike Martz’ scheme and he looks like the favorite to lead the Bears in receiving.
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