I have broken my sleepers into 4 categories this year. Mid Round Upside Picks, Mid Round Value Picks, Late Round Upside Picks, Late Round Value Picks. A Mid Round Value Pick, as I will list here, is anyone available in the mid rounds (8th-12th) of a 12 team draft, that doesn’t have the upside of a high upside sleeper, but is just flat out being overlooked. They are a relatively safe pick that you can count on to be worth slightly more than the round you draft them in.
All average draft position (ADP) stats are as of 9/1/10 and were found at ESPN.com. ADP stats serve to provide you an estimate of when you should take these players and when you can expect them to be off of the board and thus ADP stats are crucial when dealing with upside and value picks.
TE Zach Miller- OAK
ADP: 117th
Jason Campbell loves to throw to his tight ends. In his first 2 years with Jason Campbell at quarterback, Chris Cooley had yards totals of 786 and 849, both of which were career highs at the time. He only managed 1 touchdown in 2008, but with 8 the year before it’s safe to say 2008 was a fluke in terms of touchdowns. In 2009, despite leaving midway through his 7th game with an injury and going down for the season, Cooley still had 29 catches for 332 yards and 2 scores. In 2009, despite not playing extensively until Cooley got hurt midway through his 7thgame, Fred Davis had 48 catches for 509 yards and 6 scores. Combine those stats with Cooley’s and Washington tight ends had 77 catches for 841 yards and 8 scores last year. Not bad. With Jason Campbell now in Oakland, Zach Miller figures to have a great year. Miller is as talented, if not more talented than Davis and Cooley. In his last 2 years, despite playing with an ugly mix of JaMarcus Russell, Charlie Frye, and Bruce Gradkowski at quarterback, Zach Miller has averaged 61 catches and 792 yards per season. With Jason Campbell at quarterback now, he has a chance to approach 900 yards. Zach Miller has never been much of a touchdown threat, but that’s not really his fault. He may only have 4 touchdowns over the last 2 years, but that’s because the Raiders have only had 23 receiving touchdowns over the last 2 years. In fact, Miller was actually 2nd on the team in touchdowns last year with 3. Now that they have a quarterback who can actually lead and complete drives to the end zone, Miller should be more in that 5-7 range. At 6-5, you’d figure he’d be their best goal line threat.
TE Greg Olsen- CHI
ADP: 135th
I had Greg Olsen as a potential top 5 tight end last year. That didn’t happen, he was 10th, but I’m not giving up on him this year. Jay Cutler loves to throw to his tight ends. In Cutler’s last two years in Denver, tight end Tony Scheffler had a total of 89 catches for 1194 yards and 8 scores. For comparison’s sake, he had 31 catches for 416 and 2 scores last year with Kyle Orton. Cutler is now in his 2nd year in Chicago, with Chicago’s receivers, and that can only help Olsen this year. Also, Mike Martz is now Chicago’s offensive coordinator, so Chicago should be throwing a bit more this year, also a good thing for Olsen. Olsen is the type of vertical threat tight end that is built to succeed in Martz’ scheme. He’s also only 25 so the former 1st rounder probably hasn’t reached his full potential yet. Expect him to increase the 60 catches for 612 yards and 8 scores he has last year.
WR Mohamed Massaquoi- CLE
ADP: 148th
8/31/10: Delhomme has actually looked decent this preseason and while I don’t recommend drafting Delhomme, it definitely a good sign for Massaquoi, Delhomme’s #1 receiver.
Someone has to lead the Browns in receiving yards…right? Massaquoi was that guy last year and with a full season as their #1 receiver, he should increase his stats. He wasn’t their number one until week 4 last year. Take his stats from the last 13 games and extrapolate them across 16 games and you get 39 catches for 735 yards and 4 scores. I think that’s his floor. He, essentially, had those stats as a rookie with crap at quarterback. This year, he’s not a rookie and there’s a slight chance the Browns won’t have crap at quarterback this year. I mean you never know. Maybe Jake Delhomme will find his old form. It’s highly unlikely, but Massaquoi looks like a guy with a floor of about 700 yards, 4-6 scores, and a ceiling that’s higher than that. That makes him a WR4 with upside and a guy who can be plugged into your lineup on occasion. He’s not being drafted as that.
WR Lee Evans- BUF
ADP: 108th
Lee Evans was awful last year with a career low 44 catches for a career low 612 yards. However, that’s because he was the #2 receiver to Terrell Owens on an awful offense. TO is now gone and Evans is the main man again. I know getting Buffalo’s “main man” shouldn’t should too exciting because, yes, Buffalo is going to suck this year. However, they’ve sucked all of Lee Evans career, particularly at the quarterback position. That didn’t stop him from getting 1292 yards in 2007, 849 yards in 2008, and 1017 yards in 2009. He could pass that 1000 yard mark again.
RB Tim Hightower
ADP: 121st
8/31/10: For the 3rd straight week, Hightower was the Cardinals’ starter at running back. Even if he isn’t the starter during the season, in favor of Chris Wells, he should get his fair share of carries because Coach Ken Whisenhunt loves his pass catching and pass blocking skills. Love him as a high upside RB4.
8/24/10: Hightower got the start again but only managed 3 yards on 5 carries. Still, the start is more important for fantasy purposes.
8/15/10: For his value, Hightower is a solid pickup as he’s going in the 110s on average. I wouldn’t mind having this guy as my RB4 in the 9th or 10th round. Wells is injury prone which means Hightower could get a start or two this season and the Cardinals made it clear in their first preseason game that they plan on using Hightower in some significant form this year. He’s a great pass catcher and Matt Leinart loves to checkdown.
WR Jabar Gaffney
ADP: 139th
8/24/10: Gaffney has been used in the #1 receiver role in Denver this preseason and had 6 catches for 98 yards on 7 targets in his 2nd preseason game. It appears it will be him, not Demaryius Thomas or Eddie Royal who is the impact receiver in Denver this year. Gaffney had 21 catches for 282 yards and 2 score in his final 2 regular season games last year.
WR Derrick Mason
ADP: 118th
8/24/10: Despite all the new weapons the Ravens gave Joe Flacco this offseason, he’s still doing what he knows how to do best in the preseason, throwing it to Derrick Mason. Mason only has one season of 1000 yards or less in the past 10 years and could challenge for another 1000 yard season this year, even with all these new weapons around him. Even if he doesn’t get 1000 yards, he’ll be close and he’s extremely undervalued this year.
RB Leon Washington
ADP: 143rd
9/3/10: Washington has been Seattle’s best runner this preseason and sat for rest purposes in the Seahawks 4th preseason game. They have big plans for him and I expect him to be their lead back, though they will use 3 different backs frequently this year. He’s also a great pass catcher.
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