Debate the New England Patriots’ offseason possibilities in The Football Fan Forum
2010 Preview:
New England’s offense last year wasn’t what he have come to expect from them. However, a lot of that can be blamed on Tom Brady’s health. Whether it was trying to get his feet under him early in the season, after coming back from a major injury, or bruised ribs, or a broken finger, or a phantom shoulder problem, he wasn’t quite right most of the season. When he was right, he was right. He destroyed Tennessee. He destroyed Jacksonville, even though injuries, so we know he can still put the points on the board in big ways.
His receiving corps this year are actually looking pretty underrated, if you can believe it. Randy Moss was a top 5 receiver last year, despite injuries and not trying 100%. This year, he’s fully motivated, in his contract year. Torry Holt will probably be lining up opposite him. Holt hasn’t been his same self the past few years, but having Marc Bulger and David Garrard as his quarterbacks probably had a lot to do with that. Julian Edelman will be a solid replacement for Wes Welker, for however long he’s out, and don’t sleep on Welker’s ability to get healthy. He reportedly practiced at 75% as recently as this week, less than 5 months after tearing his ACL and MCL. If that’s true, Welker being ready for the opener doesn’t seem like a stretch. Add in a pair or talented rookie tight ends, and Brady’s got some weapons to work with. By all indications, their offense should be as good this year, if not better, than most years over the past 8-10 years.
However, this defense won’t even be close. The Patriots won championships as much with smash mouth defense as they did with a big offense. Richard Seymour, Tedy Bruschi, Rodney Harrison, Ty Law, Junior Seau, Mike Vrabel, Willie McGinest, those guys are all long gone. This defense has some nice players, Leigh Bodden, Jerod Mayo, Ty Warren, Vince Wilfork, Brandon Merriweather, rookie rush linebacker Jermaine Cunningham, but, as you can see, it’s just not the same. They lack those proven players of their Super Bowl winning teams. Now, Miami and New York, they’re coming up fast. Both of those teams are very talented. The Patriots aren’t going to be able to win this division with ease, though I give them a slight edge because of how important the quarterback position is in the NFL.
Projection: 11-5 1st in AFC East
Power Ranking: 5
Last season: 10-7
Draft:
#27 CB Devin McCourty (Rutgers)
This pick caught me by surprise, but I do think it makes sense now. The Patriots have to go up against the Jets twice next year and the Jets are three deep at receiver with Edwards, Holmes, and Cotchery. The Pats have decent depth at corner, but Shaun Springs is getting pretty old, Darius Butler is an unproven 2009 2nd rounder, and Jonathan Wilhite is a nickel corner who could be upgraded.
Grade: B
#44 TE Rob Gronkowski (Arizona)
If Gronkowski had gone back to school, he almost certainly would have been a 1st round pick in 2011. He’s is a big target with good hands over the middle and he’s also a strong blocker and fills a huge need for the Patriots. If Wes Welker can’t play next year, there’s no doubt that the Pats will hurt, but having a legit big target like Gronkowski over the middle definitely would help remedy the hurt and if Welker plays, this is once again going to be one of the strongest receiving corps in the NFL (assuming Randy Moss plays well in his contract year).
Grade: A
#53 RLB Jermaine Cunningham (Florida)
I liked Cunningham a lot last year, at times even more than Dunlap, though it’s tough to ignore Dunlap’s measurables and potential, so I’m glad Cunningham went 1 pick before Dunlap, his former college linemate. Cunningham is a good fit for their 3-4 and he fills a major need as a pass rusher. There may have been some better rush linebacker available, and their may have been some better rush linebacker values later, and Cunningham may be a bit of a reach at 53, but it’s good to see the Patriots finally addressing the rush linebacker position and taking a player who they got a close look at during Florida’s Pro Day.
Grade: B+
#62 MLB Brandon Spikes (Florida)
Now when the Patriots need linebacker depth, they won’t have to raise Junior Seau from the dead. I don’t like Spikes’ speed, but he has good upside in a 3-4 and Bill Belicheck is good friends with Urban Meyer.
Grade: B-
#90 WR Taylor Price (Ohio)
He fills a need and has a ton of athletic upside in the 3rd, but I’m not a big fan of his, even though I can see him being, possibly, a future starter for this team. However, if they think that Price is an adaquate future replacement for Moss, they could very well be negatively surprised in a few years.
Grade: C
#113 TE Aaron Hernandez (Florida)
Two tight ends in the same draft? Normally the strict positional valuist in me screams no, but when you have as many picks as the Patriots do, it’s not a bad idea to take BPA in the 4th and take Hernandez, who is a perfect fit for the scheme and compliments Gronkowski nicely.
Grade: A
#150 P Zoltan Mesko (Michigan)
I understand the need for a punter, but they have like 6 7th rounders. Certainly they could have used one of those on a punter and taken someone who can play on offense or defense here.
Grade: C-
#205 C Ted Larsen (NC State)
Larsen fills a bit of a need, but not a huge need and I still have images of his ugly snap in the Senior Bowl burned into my head.
Grade: B-
#209 OT Thomas Welch (Vanderbilt)
Not a major need, but with as many picks as the Patriots had, taking some depth at the offensive tackle position makes sense and Welch is a solid value.
Grade: A-
#247 3-4 DE Brandon Deaderick (Alabama)
The Patriots really should have taken a 3-4 defensive end earlier, but Deaderick is a good value here and has experience playing in the 3-4 at Alabama. He had a down year last year, but only because he hadn’t fully recovered from being shot in the arm during the offseason.
Grade: A
#248 NT Kade Weston (Georgia)
Weston is one of the most underrated nose tackles in this draft class and he provides solid depth at the position, but I think he could also slide outside and play the 3-4 end position at 6-5 320. If the Pats weren’t going to address the 3-4 end position earlier, they might as well take two prospects at the position in the late rounds to increase their chances.
Grade: A-
#250 QB Zac Robinson (Oklahoma State)
Robinson is a great value and the Pats played all last year with 2 quarterbacks so using one of their many late rounders on a quarterback is not a bad idea. He may also be able to play some receiver, a la Julian Edelman.
Grade: A
Key undrafted free agents
RB Pat Paschall (North Dakota State)
RLB Dane Fletcher (Montana State)
WR Bryan Anderson (Central Michigan)
CB Terrence Johnson (California PA)
Overall:
I think the Patriots got some pretty good talent here and filled some holes, but I would have liked to have seen them taking a 3-4 defensive end earlier, maybe Jared Odrick at 27 instead of Devin McCourty, and I wanted them to take at least one running back. They also did do some questionable things like taking a punter in the 5th with a ton of 7th rounders and taking Taylor Price, who I am not high on, in the 3rd. However, they took a bunch of players who fit the scheme, fill needs, and have solid upside.
Grade: B+
Positions of need:
Rush Linebacker:
They only managed 31 sacks last year and 9.5 of those were from Tully Banta Cain who is a free agent this offseason. I understand why Bill Belicheck is afraid to draft a rush linebacker because the positions doesn’t really exist in college, but he needs to. Derrick Burgess is also a free agent, Adailus Thomas is never going to be the same player he used to be again, and Shawn Crable, who they like, has had two major injuries in his first 2 years in the league.
Drafted Jermaine Cunningham (#53)
3-4 Defensive End:
Getting the Raiders first rounder in 2011, likely a top 10 pick, for Richard Seymour was brilliant. Maybe they should trade more often with the Raiders. However, they do need to replace him on the defensive line. Unless they fall in love with Jared Odrick at 22, they’ll use a 2nd rounder on this need.
Signed Damione Lewis, Drafted Brandon Deaderick (#247), Signed Gerard Warren
Tight End:
Benjamin Watson is a free agent and based on how he has declined in recent years, they’ll likely go another direction at the position. Aaron Hernandez would fit the scheme well in the 2nd.
Signed Alge Crumpler, Drafted Rob Gronkowski (#42), Drafted Aaron Hernandez (#113)
Running Back:
They benched Laurence Maroney late last year after another fumble. The Patriots could target a replacement for him, either Jahvid Best or CJ Spiller, at 22 in the first round. They really don’t have any big speed guys at the position so they may want to focus on obtaining a homerun hitting back that can catch the ball out of the backfield.
Wide Receiver:
Randy Moss has only one year left on his deal and given his effort last year, I’d be surprised to see him back in 2011. I wouldn’t actually be surprised if he was traded this offseason. Maybe they could trade him to Oakland for a first rounder and then in a few years trade a 4th rounder to get him back. They could start a business off of this. Back to the point, they’ll need a young wide receiver early in the draft to be his future replacement. Even if he’s brought back, he’ll be 36 in 2011.
Signed Torry Holt, Drafted Taylor Price (#90)
Cornerback:
Depth at least is needed. Leigh Bodden is a free agent this offseason and, given the weak cornerback market, he could get a large deal that the Pats won’t want to match. I’m not sold on Jonathan Wilhite as their nickel corner either and Shawn Springs is getting up there in years.
Drafted Devin McCourty (#27)
Guard:
Stephen Neal is a free agent and has hinted towards retirement. He’s also injury prone and over 30. He’ll need to be replaced.
Middle Linebacker:
Jerod Mayo and Gary Guyton have the starting job down fine, the issue is if one gets hurt, they’ll probably have to wake Junior Seau up from the dead again. They really lack depth at the position right now.
Drafted Brandon Spikes (#62)
Free agents:
QB Jeff Rowe
QB Mike Teel
RB Kevin Faulk- resigned 1 year 2 million
WR Isaiah Stanback- signed with Seahawks
TE Benjamin Watson- signed with Browns 3 years 12 million
TE Chris Baker- signed with Seahawks 2 years 4.7 million
G Logan Mankins (restricted)- tendered (1st, 3rd)
G Stephen Neal- resigned 2 years
NT Vince Wilfork- resigned 5 years 40 million
3-4 DE Jarvis Green- signed with Broncos 4 years 20 million
RLB Tully Banta Cain- resigned 3 years
RLB Derrick Burgess
RLB Pierre Woods (restricted)- resigned 1 year
RLB Adalius Thomas
MLB Bruce Davis- signed with Broncos
#4 CB Leigh Bodden- resigned 5 years 28.5 million
I’d move him up if he wasn’t so horrible in a zone scheme in Detroit in 2008. The Patriots made a brilliant move by signing him. He fit their scheme perfectly and he would fit other teams will if they ran a similar man scheme. He’s one of the top 5 best man to man shutdown corners and Chad Ochocinco even said he’s the best man to man corner in the league. If you have the right scheme, he’ll be an amazing addition and command a large contract.
CB Shawn Springs
K Stephen Gostkowski (restricted)- resigned 1 year 1.7 million
Offseason moves:
Patriots sign C Eric Ghiaciuc
Patriots announce retirement of WR David Patten
Patriots cut QB Mike Teel
Patriots sign RB Thomas Clayton
Patriots waive MLB Bruce Davis
Patriots waive WR Isaiah Stanback
Patriots claim QB Mike Teel
Patriots cut QB Jeff Rowe
Patriots cut CB Shawn Springs
Patriots re-sign RLB Derrick Burgess
Patriots sign 3-4 DE Gerard Warren
Patriots cut RLB Adalius Thomas
Patriots re-sign RLB Pierre Woods
Patriots re-sign K Stephen Gostkowski
Patriots 3-4 DE Damione Lewis
Patriots sign TE Alge Crumpler
Patriots re-sign RB Kevin Faulk
Patriots sign RLB Marques Murrell
Patriots re-sign CB Leigh Bodden
Patriots re-sign G Stephen Neal
Patriots re-sign NT Vince Wilfork
Patriots re-sign RLB Tully Banta-Cain
Patriots cut TE Chris Baker
Patriots tender K Stephen Gostkowski
Patriots tender G Logan Mankins
Patriots tender MLB Gary Guyton
Patriots tender RLB Pierre Woods
Patriots sign WR David Patten
Patriots franchise NT Vince Wilfork
FB Patrick Pass retires
# refers to unrestricted free agent rank
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